Article: Talking Pitching: Kevin Correia

[Parker Hageman]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2366-Kevin-Correia-Talks-Pitching

[ashbury]

I admire much about Kevin Correia, his evident grit for example, even if I disagreed with Ryan on signing him (and now admit that Ryan seems to have gotten the results he paid for). But this quote amused me, with my emphasis added:

 

I barely look at my ERA or anything like that. I think I was kind of before that stuff started so I never really factored that stuff in.

 

I thought we signed Kevin Correia, not Candy Cummings.

[Parker Hageman]

What. Sabermetrics and stats were invented in 2006.

[Winston Smith]

What's ERA is that a new stat dropped out of the matrix? If I was him I wouldn't look at it either.

The sad thing is he was likely our best starter when he should be our #5 starter. Kind of explains 90+ losses.

[Thrylos]

Correia has been a fine fifth starter type of guy this season. The problems are that a. (depending on how you are counting) he has been the second best starter for the Twins this season and b. he is paid much more than a fifth starter.

 

A couple of comments:

 

They also figured that Correia’s floor would not be as low as Liriano’s either

 

Career low FIP for Liriano was in 2008 with 5.89. His 2012 FIP was 4.54 and his career average FIP is 3.62. Correia's career average FIP is 4.51, which is very close to that of Liriano in 2012. Also it took him 3 season in the majors to get a FIP under 5. So unless the above statement describes the unfortunate perceptions of the people who are ru(i)ning the Twins, it is grossly unfair to Liriano.

 

With the exception of Anibel Sanchez and the aforementioned Liriano, no other starting pitching free agent was able to provide as much value as Correia has.

 

Totally disagree with this statement and as a matter of fact, the data shows that Correia has provided less value (unless you look at ERA and W-L) than another FA SP the Twins have signed:

 

Pelfrey: 3.99 FIP, 2.1 WAR, Fangraphs "Value": $10.6M

Correia: 4.46 FIP, 1.1 WAR, Fangraphs "Value": $5.5M

 

 

Not sure where you got that statement, about Correia being the second most valuable FA SP in baseball after Liriano, but it is wrong... He is the second most valuable FA SP the Twins signed

[Parker Hageman]

Totally disagree with this statement and as a matter of fact, the data shows that Correia has provided less value (unless you look at ERA and W-L) than another FA SP the Twins have signed:

 

Pelfrey: 3.99 FIP, 2.1 WAR, Fangraphs "Value": $10.6M

Correia: 4.46 FIP, 1.1 WAR, Fangraphs "Value": $5.5M

 

 

Not sure where you got that statement, about Correia being the second most valuable FA SP in baseball after Liriano, but it is wrong... He is the second most valuable FA SP the Twins signed

 

WOW. Something is completely broken with the Fangraphs.com stats! Should probably send them an email. According to B-R.com, Pelfrey is -0.3 WAR. I think that is much more accurate depiction of his season. I stand by my statement that Correia has been far more valuable than Pelfrey this year.

 

Career low FIP for Liriano was in 2008 with 5.89. His 2012 FIP was 4.54 and his career average FIP is 3.62. Correia's career average FIP is 4.51, which is very close to that of Liriano in 2012. Also it took him 3 season in the majors to get a FIP under 5. So unless the above statement describes the unfortunate perceptions of the people who are ru(i)ning the Twins, it is grossly unfair to Liriano.

 

FIP. FIP. FIP. FIP. FIP.

 

Interestingly enough, there are other things that can lead to having a lower floor, such as a fairly extensive injury history or being yanked out of the rotation two seasons in a row for poor performance. From the Twins' perspective, Kevin Correia was a "safer" investment.

 

FIP.

[Thrylos]

WOW. Something is completely broken with the Fangraphs.com stats! Should probably send them an email. According to B-R.com, Pelfrey is -0.3 WAR. I think that is much more accurate depiction of his season. I stand by my statement that Correia has been far more valuable than Pelfrey this year.

 

Then you have to fight Baseball Prospectus as well

 

 

The way B-R calculates WAR is broken, especially for pitchers; Fangraphs and BP are much better data sources .

[Parker Hageman]

The way B-R calculates WAR is broken, especially for pitchers; Fangraphs and BP are much better data sources .

 

Here's what I know -- Pelfrey's getting a ton of FIP points for not allowing as many home runs as Correia. After all, the FIP formula starts off with 13*HR. FIP is used in both Fangraphs and BP which makes complete sense why it significantly overvalues Pelfrey's season in comparison to Correia's (especially when Correia had a better walk rate and similar strikeout rate). When you look at the EXPECTED FIP (xFIP) which neutralizes the home run rates, we find that Correia (4.26) comes out better than Pelfrey (4.54). Similarly, B-R's WAR, rather than using FIP, neutralizes the runs allowed to account for opponents, park, etc. This, to me, is a better accounting system.

 

This isn't to discredit Pelfrey's season either. I think he did do well -- just not as well as the Fangraphs/BP.com WAR/WARP suggest.

[Thrylos]

Here's what I know -- Pelfrey's getting a ton of FIP points for not allowing as many home runs as Correia. After all, the FIP formula starts off with 13*HR. FIP is used in both Fangraphs and BP which makes complete sense why it significantly overvalues Pelfrey's season in comparison to Correia's (especially when Correia had a better walk rate and similar strikeout rate). When you look at the EXPECTED FIP (xFIP) which neutralizes the home run rates, we find that Correia (4.26) comes out better than Pelfrey (4.54). Similarly, B-R's WAR, rather than using FIP, neutralizes the runs allowed to account for opponents, park, etc. This, to me, is a better accounting system.

 

This isn't to discredit Pelfrey's season either. I think he did do well -- just not as well as the Fangraphs/BP.com WAR/WARP suggest.

 

Preaching to the choir about FIP (and xFIP), btw. I do agree that their seasons were similar. Pelfrey did have a higher (5.9 vs 5 K/9) and higher BABIP (.337 vs .314), which go on his side (in addition to HR/9, which I think is not much meaningful). Can we settle on SIERA, which is probably my favorite (complicated) pitching metric (ref on previous link if anyone cares) even if a rate metric and value is cumulative?. Correia's is 4.57, Pelfrey's 4.63. Practically identical.

 

This whole point, remember, started from the statement that "Correia was the third most valuable FA SP other than Liriano and Sanchez", which I disputed.

 

Here is the list of the 2013 pitching performances, ranked by SIERA (in reverse order, need to click to short by lower).

 

FA SP SIERA in (just counting down to Correia & Pelfrey) :

 

Sanchez: 3.17

Kazmir: 3.52

Liriano: 3.56

Haren: 3.60

Greinke: 3.74

E. Santana: 3.76

Blanton: 3.92

E. Jackson: 3.98

Feldman: 4.06

Maholm: 4.16

Colon: 4.24

Lohse: 4.25

Dempster: 4.26

Saunders: 4.49

Bedard: 4.54

Correia: 4.57

Pelfry: 4.63

 

And probably missed a few...

So hardly third most valuable by any means. Really.

[big dog]

KC has been an asset to the Twins this year. It's frightening to think about who might have filled his 31 starts. Walters or Hernandez, anyone? Yeah, he's not a #1 or #2, but he's been a solid major leaguer. We've certainly seen a lot worse.

[Seth Stohs]

Well said, big dog, Correia has been exactly what the Twins and fans should have hoped. He was actually much better than I would have guessed. I'll never understand the 2nd year of the contract, but he's been well worth the contract this year, in my opinion.

[Squirrel]

Well said, big dog, Correia has been exactly what the Twins and fans should have hoped. He was actually much better than I would have guessed. I'll never understand the 2nd year of the contract, but he's been well worth the contract this year, in my opinion.

 

What do you think next year will look for him?

[ThePuck]

Well said, big dog, Correia has been exactly what the Twins and fans should have hoped. He was actually much better than I would have guessed. I'll never understand the 2nd year of the contract, but he's been well worth the contract this year, in my opinion.

 

Again, as a fan, it doesn't matter to me if he earned his small FA contract or even exceeded it a bit. The problem most had with signing him is we needed a huge improvement in our rotation and Ryan went out and got the guys he did. Nice he lived up to low expectations, as we sit with the worst rotation in baseball.

[big dog]

Again, as a fan, it doesn't matter to me if he earned his small FA contract or even exceeded it a bit. The problem most had with signing him is we needed a huge improvement in our rotation and Ryan went out and got the guys he did. Nice he lived up to low expectations, as we sit with the worst rotation in baseball.

 

I think it is important to separate two very different things.

1) Ryan promised the fans a big upgrade in pitching. It didn't happen.

2) Corriea did at least a good a job as anyone could have expected.

 

One person didn't do his job, one person did his job or better. Blame should only go to one of those parties. Credit should go to the other.

[clutterheart]

Do we need to have a retrospective on Terry Ryan? It seems he did far better than I gave him credit at the season start. - and I am a Ryan basher!

 

2013 Additions:

1 - Correia - he pitched not terrible. - I expected terrible

2 -Pelfry- He pitched bad - I expected horribly bad

3 - Worley - He pitched horribly bad - I expect decent

 

I think Ryan expected more from Worley & Diamond. If both of those guys had decent seasons, Corriea's impact would've been far more positive and this season might have not been the disaster it was.

 

Should've Ryan expected that Worley & Diamond would both spend July and August pitching in AAA?

 

I'm not sure anyone would've predicted that...

 

Does Ryan deserve a passing grade this year? - No. But the "F -" I gave him at the start of the year might need to be reevaluated.

[big dog]

And even when Worley wasn't in AAA, he should have been. His and Diamond's struggles were the two big problems that turned this situation from bad to disastrous, and made Ryan's reliance on bounce-back hopes for Pelfrey and Harden and whomever an even bigger problem.

[ThePuck]

And even when Worley wasn't in AAA, he should have been. His and Diamond's struggles were the two big problems that turned this situation from bad to disastrous, and made Ryan's reliance on bounce-back hopes for Pelfrey and Harden and whomever an even bigger problem.

 

both of them came into this season recovering from injuries...just like Pelfrey and the long shot Harden (though not as severe as Pelfrey and Harden)

[big dog]

both of them came into this season recovering from injuries...just like Pelfrey and the long shot Harden (though not as severe as Pelfrey and Harden)

 

Very true. In retrospect those "minor" elbow scopes were much more dramatic than a lot of us thought they were going to be. At least I hope Worley's troubles were related to surgery so that he can bounce back next year.

[jorgenswest]

Another Pelfrey/Correia comparison.

 

Among starters Correia has the fewest pitches per plate appearance at 3.69 and Pelfrey the greatest at 4.00.

 

Does it matter? Maybe.

 

Pitch count has allowed Correia to go deeper into games more often.

 

Fewer pitches per plate appearances allows Correia to work quicker. There is at least anecdotal evidence that defense is improved when a pitcher works quickly. Better defense behind him won't improve his FIP, but it will improve his ERA.

[panolo]

I think for what we had in the cupboard and what we wanted to spend, KC was valuable. I would have much rather he pitched out of the 4 or 5 hole but with this staff he was forced to be a front end guy. He did I expected him to do: take the ball, eat up some innings, pitch quick, and be decent.

 

I was never for the signing but I didn't think it needed to be crucified like many others did.

[John Bonnes]

I think for what we had in the cupboard and what we wanted to spend, KC was valuable. I would have much rather he pitched out of the 4 or 5 hole but with this staff he was forced to be a front end guy. He did I expected him to do: take the ball, eat up some innings, pitch quick, and be decent.

 

I was never for the signing but I didn't think it needed to be crucified like many others did.

 

Perhaps not. Context was everything in this case. The primary thing that was criticized was the second year, and that still seems like a bad idea, IMHO. But mostly it had to do with the need for top-end pitching and instead signing a bottom-of-the-rotation guy. If the Correia signing would have been the 3rd signing the team made, after signing Dempster and Marcum, it might have been puzzling but not damnable. But as a primary signing, it seemed like the team wasn't serious about solving its starting rotation problems. Which they weren't.

[Parker Hageman]

But as a primary signing, it seemed like the team wasn't serious about solving its starting rotation problems. Which they weren't.

 

Frankly, Terry Ryan was not going to solve the starting rotation problem via free agency last year.

 

Nick and I went back and forth on this some on Twitter today. First, I don't believe there were many "top-of-the-rotation" arms available on the free agent market for the Twins. What some people seem to believe is that there was just a pile of free agents available and that the Twins could have chosen from any of them. From what people in the organization have told me, there were plenty of free agent pitchers who -- for whatever reason -- rebuffed the Twins. One reason cited was that some free agents wanted to play for a contender rather than the back-to-back 90 loss Twins.

 

I didn't like the Correia signing. I will admit that he performed well enough for them to provide positive value (I was expecting a Ramon Ortiz-like exit at some point). That could still happen in year two of his contract but, for now, .

[panolo]

John I am 100% with Parker on this one.

 

I also believe they thought that the pitching was in a better position than it turned out to be. I think that the consensus was that Worley and Gibson would provide some positive innings. That Deduno would have not been hurt and that Diamond would not have been coal.

 

I really don't think there can be a winner in this discussion because both points are relevant to a degree.

 

Although I am mad at myself for having a bad attitude about going to games at TF when he pitched. He was pretty decent there this year.

[nicksaviking]

Frankly, Terry Ryan was not going to solve the starting rotation problem via free agency last year.

 

Nick and I went back and forth on this some on Twitter today. First, I don't believe there were many "top-of-the-rotation" arms available on the free agent market for the Twins. What some people seem to believe is that there was just a pile of free agents available and that the Twins could have chosen from any of them. From what people in the organization have told me, there were plenty of free agent pitchers who -- for whatever reason -- rebuffed the Twins. One reason cited was that some free agents wanted to play for a contender rather than the back-to-back 90 loss Twins.

 

I still don't believe that the Twins couldn't have overpaid to get some guys here. I do believe that Ryan would refuse to overpay though. I'd imagine if pressed, Kevin Correia would have said he wanted to play for a contender in 2013 too after all.

 

We can also take into account the fact that the Twins could have had Ervin Santana and Dan Haren if they'd been willing to take their salary and give over a couple non-prospects.

[Parker Hageman]

I still don't believe that the Twins couldn't have overpaid to get some guys here.

 

That may be true. You could have offered one hundred billion dollars and a pitcher would have just said, welp, where do I sign? That said, outside of Greinke/Sanchez, there is not a pitcher that was on the market worth overpaying for.

 

I mean, we do have the advantage of hindsight on this which means, dammit, we should have signed Scott Kazmir out from the Sugar Land Skeeters of the Independent Leagues.

[Mike Sixel]

How about he successfully fix the "number 3" starter one year? We aren't asking for "aces" here (well, I am, but let's say others aren't), but how about good pitching? If he had fixed 1 spot last year, he could fix one more this year, and then get lucky with a young guy, and boom, things are better. But saying "he couldn't fix it all in one year, so don't judge the moves he did make", that makes no sense to me, and that seems to be the argument many are making.

[Parker Hageman]

How about he successfully fix the "number 3" starter one year?

 

Again, I think it was more of a long-term plan -- which was the May/Meyer/Worley trades. If he hits on a couple of those guys, the Twins may have been looking at trying to find just an arm in 2015.

 

To say they were not trying to fix the rotation is disingenuous. It just wasn't designed to be fixed in 2013.

[ThePuck]

 

To say they were not trying to fix the rotation is disingenuous. It just wasn't designed to be fixed in 2013.

 

Well, Ryan did say he's do everything possible to significantly improve the rotation for this year. So if it wasn't designed to be fixed in 2013, why did he say that at the season ticket holder conference and how wouldn't saying that, if it wasn't meant to be fixed in 2013, not be viewed as disingenuous?

[Alex]

Again, I think it was more of a long-term plan -- which was the May/Meyer/Worley trades. If he hits on a couple of those guys, the Twins may have been looking at trying to find just an arm in 2015.

 

To say they were not trying to fix the rotation is disingenuous. It just wasn't designed to be fixed in 2013.

 

I disagree that that was the intent of the organization going into the last offseason unless you want to discount what they said as completely disingenuous (competing in September, pursuing pitching FA).