Terry Ryan on KFAN

[Willihammer]

The problem with making this part of your strategy, is you have to outbid 29 other teams to do it.

 

I wonder about that. The sense I get from the FO is that they consider the sign-and-trade a backwards way of dealing. But if I were Bartolo Colon, Hiroki Kuroda, or A. J. Burnett, I'd probably jump at a 1 year deal to a rebuilder who tells me up front "if we're not in the wild card race at mid-season, then we're going to trade you into a pennant race for prospects."

[beckmt]

If you look how the FA pitchers came out this year, Ryan did OK. I hit and a couple of misses, one very low risk. Now he needs to make some bigger moves, but most of the top FA pitchers will probably not come here, without overpaying them by a lot. So you keep trying, and hope to hit a few homeruns. I do hope Josh Johnson is one of the pitchers signed, and then sign another older pitcher for 1-2 years or a younger one (Lincecum if not qualified) for 3 or more.

[DaveW]

I wonder about that. The sense I get from the FO is that they consider the sign-and-trade a backwards way of dealing. But if I were Bartolo Colon, Hiroki Kuroda, or A. J. Burnett, I'd probably jump at a 1 year deal to a rebuilder who tells me up front "if we're not in the wild card race at mid-season, then we're going to trade you into a pennant race for prospects."

AJ Burnett has said he is staying in Pittsburgh, also I doubt any pitcher really sees that as a great thing, in fact I think its the opposite, major leaguers are humans like the rest of us, nobody wants to up and move (especially with a family) in the middle of the year, also this is why they often want no trade clauses and long term deals (of course money is always huge) but never underestimate the value of "knowing where you will be"

[Shane Wahl]

The problem with making this part of your strategy, is you have to outbid 29 other teams to do it. And then when it's time to flip him, you can have 29 teams replying "I didn't even want him at that price, free and clear. Now I need to give you a prospect for the right to pay him that same salary?"

 

Yes, of course such trades do get made, for a variety of reasons such as key injuries, but the obstacle is still there if you're truly basing your strategy around the idea. How much could the Twins get for Correia or Willingham? For that matter, how much could their respective teams get for Greinke or Anibal Sanchez? The Feldman trade looks to me to be about the best you can hope for, and the downside to the strategy is if you acquired Willingham only to be a trade chip after a year, and have him end 2012 disabled instead and a shell of himself in 2013. On average, I think, the strategy won't fill up the farm system with very many prospects.

 

You first say "making this part of your strategy" and then say "if you're truly basing your strategy around the idea." Those two statements do not match. I am advocating for the former, and not the latter. The idea behind signing free agents is first and foremost to get good players who can stay and contribute (which is why I *really* don't like a one-year deal for any of these guys unless there is an option year--and guys signing a one-year deal are less likely to like the option) for 2014, to 2015, and gasp, 2016. But secondarily, if the option arises, trading those assets for young talent (and, at this point, that hopefully means A+ or AA talent) is then *part* of the strategy.

 

Now the point about the outbidding and salary:

 

1. Teams who the Twins would be trading to are likely looking to win that year. Now maybe in the offseason it wasn't clear how competitive said team was, but by the end of July that picture is more clear.

 

2. The Twins would have already forked over the majority of 2014's salary to the player (and if the Twins were ballsy, they could offer to pay the rest of 2014's salary . . . but alas . . . that is highly doubtful given this GM).

 

3. All sorts of things can happen that make your scenario sketchy. Maybe the team simply preferred another player in the offseason and regardless of whether or not they got him, they might be looking now (at deadline) for the Twins player. Also, of course, there is the injury issue or other roster transactions that create a need.

[Willihammer]

AJ Burnett has said he is staying in Pittsburgh, also I doubt any pitcher really sees that as a great thing, in fact I think its the opposite, major leaguers are humans like the rest of us, nobody wants to up and move (especially with a family) in the middle of the year, also this is why they often want no trade clauses and long term deals (of course money is always huge) but never underestimate the value of "knowing where you will be"

 

I get that, but some guys will change teams this year, for the prospect of more money and/or a better shot at the World Series. After all, that's why no one will sign here (or so its said) - we're not likely to be competitive, so is it still wise to cultivate this reputation as a team that won't trade anyone mid-contract?

 

If Bartolo Colon gets another $3m offer from the As, a $6m offer from the Angels, and a $10m offer from the Marlins, then my guess is he will pack his bags for one of the two other places. But if the Twins come in and say "we'll match the $6, and in 6 months trade you to a team with a minimum winning percentage .xxx (barring the Twins aren't themselves competitive)" wouldn't that be at least a little appealing? I'm assuming these sort of limited no-trade clauses can be worked out, maybe they can't.

[old nurse]

I get that, but some guys will change teams this year, for the prospect of more money and/or a better shot at the World Series. After all, that's why no one will sign here - we're not likely to be competitive, so is it still wise to cultivate this reputation as a team that won't trade anyone mid-contract?

 

If Bartolo Colon gets another $3m offer from the As, a $6m offer from the Angels, and a $10m offer from the Marlins, then my guess is he will pack his bags for one of the two other places. But if the Twins come in and say "we'll match the $6, and in 6 months trade you to a team with a minimum winning percentage .xxx (barring the Twins are themselves competitive)" wouldn't that be at least a little appealing? I'm assuming these sort of limited no-trade clauses can be worked out, maybe they can't.

 

So if the team is viewed as non competitive, why would they sign here?

Bartolo Colon has career earnings of 75 million. Why would a couple more million with an offer to be traded make the least bit of sense. It doesn't make any sense.

Teams don't sign players to trade them. Where do fans get this notion? You can name players traded. Name one signed with the idea they would be traded to a contender if it wasn't working out. Name one who was stockpiled like a brick of gold. Teams trade away the free agents when things don't work during the season, or after if it appears like it is a never will work situation. On the Cubs caravan, Seuvm and Epstien were reported as saying they expected to contend with the additions they made. A rotation like they had, decent position players, it was a believable line.

From an interview with an author

Dale Sveum says he feels more comfortable heading into his second season as the Cubs manager. Coming off a 101 loss season, he’s got high expectations.

“The one thing you hate doing is saying, ‘[finishin] .500 will be good,’ because it’s not good,” Sveum said Wednesday. “It’s not 101 losses, but .500 isn’t getting you to the playoffs. Just getting in the playoffs is satisfactory. … In a perfect world, if [Matt] Garza and [scott] Baker are ready to go Opening Day, its not a bad staff to have [Jeff] Samardzija, Garza and [Edwin] Jackson at the top and the other guys in the four, five spots. Fujikawa would come in the eight inning, Marmol in the ninth, there’s so many things that are so much better going into this season than last year. [Finishing] .500 is, like I said, still not acceptable.”

Garza and Baker will both be ready to go in Spring Training but Sveum said the team may take a cautious approach with them to ease them into the regular season. Garza is coming off an elbow injury and Baker is coming back from Tommy John surgery.

The Cubs in the playoffs in 2013? That might be hard for some fans to consider but Sveum thinks they have enough firepower if Ian Stewart is healthy, and Nate Schierholtz produces.

“You can’t fall victim to, ‘Yeah, we are obviously in a transition in the organization, and we’re trying to get healthy and do all this,’ but don’t fall into the category that we can’t win right now,” Sveum said. “Baseball is a funny thing. Just last year, we close out some games in April and the start of the season is a lot different and you never know what happens after that. You might not have the exact same bullets as the guy actross the street, but all you need are guys to play up to their capabilities and have a starting staff and close out games, and you win a lot of games.”

[Thrylos]

Bartolo Colon will be an overweight 41 year old juiced pitcher. As far as he is concerned, I am with Terry Ryan: I'd pass.

[Alex]

If you look how the FA pitchers came out this year, Ryan did OK. I hit and a couple of misses, one very low risk. Now he needs to make some bigger moves, but most of the top FA pitchers will probably not come here, without overpaying them by a lot. So you keep trying, and hope to hit a few homeruns. I do hope Josh Johnson is one of the pitchers signed, and then sign another older pitcher for 1-2 years or a younger one (Lincecum if not qualified) for 3 or more.

 

He acquired one pitcher who performed above expectation but was still a below average pitcher. This could be labeled a OK if the Twins weren't still the worst rotation in the league or had just been looking for a capable fifth starter.

[Brandon]

How shocked would everyone be if Pohlad showed up at the Winter Meetings to facilitate an ownership mandated FA signing like Lincecum or another high end starting pitcher? I could almost see this as something planned to bring about fan interest this winter. the stage has been set with Pohlad saying we can spend the money and Ryan saying lets wait....

[stringer bell]

I was listening to Dan Barreiro on KFAN. He said the LENIII had interviewed Ryan and that Terry had categorized the 3-$21M as a huge contract. While most considered the Willingham deal a middle of the road deal, if Ryan considers it huge dollars, the Twins just will not pursue and offer enough to attract a top tier or second tier free agent. It has been my concern that Ryan is still operating in the 20th Century both on what he considers a rich free agent contract and how much he is able and willing to spend. The Twins don't have to live on leftovers and scraps any more. They have middle market revenues and the prospects of rich revenue streams. If this is truly Ryan's view, Pohlad should retire him.

[ThePuck]

I was listening to Dan Barreiro on KFAN. He said the LENIII had interviewed Ryan and that Terry had categorized the 3-$21M as a huge contract. While most considered the Willingham deal a middle of the road deal, if Ryan considers it huge dollars, the Twins just will not pursue and offer enough to attract a top tier or second tier free agent. It has been my concern that Ryan is still operating in the 20th Century both on what he considers a rich free agent contract and how much he is able and willing to spend. The Twins don't have to live on leftovers and scraps any more. They have middle market revenues and the prospects of rich revenue streams. If this is truly Ryan's view, Pohlad should retire him.

 

I posted the link to that story on here already.