Terry Ryan on KFAN

[JB_Iowa]

I don't think free agent acquisitions would make the Twins a contender in the near future (definitely not 2014 and I'm pretty skeptical on 2015) but I keep going back to Nick's statement in his "Dissension on Spending" article: "But there's a large difference between contending and what we've seen unfold here for a third straight year."

 

In fact, I'd take it a step further: over the weekend Berardino made the following statement in one of his "Twins Now" blog posts on the PP: "[T]he A’s went five straight seasons without even sniffing the playoffs. From 2007-11, they averaged 85.6 losses per season as the big-spending Los Angeles Angels and Texas Rangers ruled the West.Oakland is back, however, even with a dump of a home ballpark and a sub-$70 million payroll that outranks only the Houston Astros among AL competitors.

The Twins and their $80 million payroll can take solace from that example..."

 

The Twins were 63-99 in 2011, 66-96 in 2012 and, barring a miraculous final spurt, are looking at about 68-94 in 2013. That's about a 96 game losing average over those 3 years.

 

Even if we average in 2009 and 2010, 2 very good years for the Twins, the losing average is going to be about 86.6 losses per year over a 5 year period.

 

Does anyone really think that the next 2 years will produce records as good as 2009 and 2010?

 

I guess my point is that the depth of the futility to which the Twins have sunk is deeper than Oakland -- probably much deeper than Oakland so it is hard for me to take much "solace in that example."

 

While no one expects miracles over the next year or two, I'd like to think that spending some money in the short run could produce something somewhat more palatable than where we are at right now. I don't want them to do something that will jeopardize a long term recovery but some recognition of the depth of this team's futility would be appreciated.

[nicksaviking]

So you think once you turn a certain age you can't learn new things? Talk about insulting a whole class of people.

 

Young nurse agrees with him.

[Shane Wahl]

I don't understand how anyone can agree with Terry Ryan about free agents??? Unless he is just being vague and saying something obviously along the lines of "free agent signings won't get us a World Series" or "you can't plug every hole with a free agent" then ok. Thanks for the obvious.

 

But if he is purposefully shying away from the market because of some idea that free agents aren't what the Twins need, then he is woefully mistaken. Without two free agent pitchers to add, that rotation is going to be a ****ing disaster. Correia and Deduno are not going to repeat 2013 performances next year. And the rotation isn't going to be good until Gibson settles in and Meyer and May are up. It still isn't going to be complete and secure until Berrios, Sulbaran, and Stewart are in the mix.

[gil4]

So you think once you turn a certain age you can't learn new things? Talk about insulting a whole class of people.

 

As long as that age is over 48 I'm OK with it, for now. Insult away. (That number changes to 49 in a few months and increases by one annually.)

[Shane Wahl]

Imagine the following scenario: Phil Hughes comes to the Twins on a 2 year deal for 18 million bucks. He becomes a good pitcher (maybe not the hype of 6 years ago when I took a chance on him for my fantasy team and it was terrible . . . ) with an ERA under or near 4. The Twins aren't very good, again, and find themselves selling. And Phil Hughes brings back an older Sulbaranesque (really he's a nice reference point) pitcher and another lower prospect. That's called turning assets over, it's called using free agency not merely as a win-now method of competing, but as a means of getting younger players.

 

There is no foreseeable future where the Twins are going to take money "saved" this year and next year and spend it in the future. The prospects are going to be cheap for several years now. Basically the spending starts on them when the Mauer contract ends.

 

So there are two factors in play. Billionaires maximizing profits and Terry Ryan being stuck in an era before inflation. Seriously. It's like he thinks $60 million is what it was 15 years ago or something. And he appears to refuse to go outside of the box. And he got the Correia job done for one year (but one year with him wasn't really the problem . . . ) and so I imagine TR is looking again to strike Correiaesque (another good reference point) gold, er, bronze. I just pray that he doesn't think it is to be found in Pelfrey and the Twins *actually* go about adding no one to the starting rotation.

 

Aren't the Twins potentially looking at a payroll for 2014 at 50% of what it was in 2011? THIS with a new stadium and a Joe Mauer who gets older . . .

[howieramone1406390264]

I don't understand how anyone can agree with Terry Ryan about free agents??? Unless he is just being vague and saying something obviously along the lines of "free agent signings won't get us a World Series" or "you can't plug every hole with a free agent" then ok. Thanks for the obvious.

 

But if he is purposefully shying away from the market because of some idea that free agents aren't what the Twins need, then he is woefully mistaken. Without two free agent pitchers to add, that rotation is going to be a ****ing disaster. Correia and Deduno are not going to repeat 2013 performances next year. And the rotation isn't going to be good until Gibson settles in and Meyer and May are up. It still isn't going to be complete and secure until Berrios, Sulbaran, and Stewart are in the mix.

 

Did you get a chance to read post #3, where Seth posted he agrees 100% with Ryan on Free Agency? I bet if you ask nicely, he will explain it to you.

 

Several of the young lions on the board grossly misinterpreted, as is their nature, one Terry Ryan quote concluding that he would not spend a single penny on FA's now or forever. Fortunately several of the old school posters were on hand to show them the error of their ways. Indeed Ryan will sign one, if not multiples of free agent starting pitchers this off season.

[ashbury]

Mod note: Please keep the personal asides out of your comments, everyone. Thanks.

[Yossarian]

I'm a Ryan fan as well, and agree with him about free agency. It's going to be painful for the next couple years, but that is far more a product of the Bill Smith Era (!) than TR's patience. FA spending or the prospect thereof, in fact, was likely a significant factor in Smith getting a Pohlad's shoe up his pants. Smaller market teams build best from drafts and development. Smith managed the Twins' talent very poorly, and that explains why we are where we are today.

[ThePuck]

I'm a Ryan fan as well, and agree with him about free agency. It's going to be painful for the next couple years, but that is far more a product of the Bill Smith Era (!) than TR's patience. FA spending or the prospect thereof, in fact, was likely a significant factor in Smith getting a Pohlad's shoe up his pants. Smaller market teams build best from drafts and development. Smith managed the Twins' talent very poorly, and that explains why we are where we are today.

 

The talent put on the field in 2011 and 2012, were mostly Ryan's guys, not Smith's guys cause, if you remember correctly, Smith was only here 4 years. The guys he signed internationally and in the draft hadn't even gotten through the Twins notoriously slower promotion cycle to the majors.

 

Ryan was also an adviser to Smith. Ryan also picked Smith to succeed him. Ryan also failed to get Hunter or Santana signed to an extension prior to 2007 and then really ticked both of them off when trading Castillo. Then he bailed and left the mess for Smith.

 

To put this all on Smith's shoulder's is wrong....and darn him for actually spending the % of funds available to try and make the team better...I mean, how dare he follow through with the whole premise of the reason we needed a new ballpark, for more revenue to compete and then actually spend it. You're right, no wonder Pohlad fired him...

[nicksaviking]

Imagine the following scenario: Phil Hughes comes to the Twins on a 2 year deal for 18 million bucks. He becomes a good pitcher (maybe not the hype of 6 years ago when I took a chance on him for my fantasy team and it was terrible . . . ) with an ERA under or near 4. The Twins aren't very good, again, and find themselves selling. And Phil Hughes brings back an older Sulbaranesque (really he's a nice reference point) pitcher and another lower prospect. That's called turning assets over, it's called using free agency not merely as a win-now method of competing, but as a means of getting younger players.

 

Agreed. Ryan himself says he doesn't feel free agents can help the Twins rebuild and he wants to do it with prospects. Well how do you get prospects? The draft and through trade. The Twins have next to nothing to trade right now, so use free agency to sign guys who have a possible profile of a tradable asset. Noodle armed swing men like Kevin Correia never had a chance of bringing back a return. The Yankees couldn't get anything for Hughes this season but he does have the pedigree and name where a turnaround season would give him considerable trade value.

 

There are plenty of players on the market who may not be able to singlehandedly turn the club around in 2014 but will be valuable to competitive teams come next July. Of course the Twins still may have to be willing to eat some salary.

[ThePuck]

Agreed. Ryan himself says he doesn't feel free agents can help the Twins rebuild and he wants to do it with prospects. Well how do you get prospects? The draft and through trade. The Twins have next to nothing to trade right now, so use free agency to sign guys who have a possible profile of a tradable asset. Noodle armed swing men like Kevin Correia never had a chance of bringing back a return. The Yankees couldn't get anything for Hughes this season but he does have the pedigree and name where a turnaround season would give him considerable trade value.

 

There are plenty of players on the market who may not be able to singlehandedly turn the club around in 2014 but will be valuable to competitive teams come next July. Of course the Twins still may have to be willing to eat some salary.

 

And he's not likely to trade prospects to acquire proven MLB talent either. From another article:

 

'To address all the shortcomings, Ryan might have to get creative. His one area of strength is his farm system. The Twins can covet their prospects all they want, but no team has seen all its top 10 prospects thrive in the majors. Is Ryan willing to trade prospects for established talent? For the right deal, is he willing to move one of the mega prospects such as Buxton or Sano for pitching?

 

“Depending on who you are talking about and the situation and all that, if something comes up like that where someone presents something like that, we will take it all under consideration and see what the ramifications are,” Ryan said.'

 

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/224966352.html?page=2&c=y

[amjgt]

Terry Ryan seems to view free agency as a way to fill out a roster/pitching staff rather than improving a roster/pitching staff.

 

Nobody is asking TR to use free agents to completely overhaul the roster/pitching staff, but we are too far away from competitive at this point to be flippantly ruling out ways to get us back to respectability.

[John Bonnes]

OK, so two questions, just to be a little more specific....

 

1. Will the Twins spend more than $11 million dollars on starting pitching in the free agency market for pitchers next year?

2. Will the Twins staring pitching rotation rank any better than 26th in ERA next year?

 

 

After reading Ryan's comments, I think I'm going to say "No" and "No". And that second "no" feels like a gut punch. 2014 would be the fourth year in a row that would be true. I'm all for patience, but c'mon.....

 

I'll add one more...

 

#3. Is that acceptable?

 

("No. Not to me.")

[amjgt]

I agree with Shane Wahl above, where free agents can be used (flipped) to acquire young talent. The obvious model for this is the Cubs.

 

The common first response to this is "we don't have the financial capabilities of the Cubs." While that is probably true, they started the year with a payroll a little over $100mil and with all of the trades they made, they look to be down in the $75 mil range (for a 2013 net payroll of $80-90mil)

 

That sounds like a place where even Terry Ryan would admit we are comfortable.

 

There are a myriad of reasons why a team might find themselves with payroll flexibility (lots of young players, new influx of revenue, tanking, etc). Not using that flexibility to improve your organization is what is truly the most frustrating thing for a fan to stomach (at least this fan).

 

We stink. OK

We're tanking. OK

We had injuries. OK

 

We're saving money. Not OK

[big dog]

Well, I covered the known knowns, and the known unknowns, but I didn't consider the unknown unknowns, so I can understand your ambivalance.

 

Any discord will be dismissed as coming from the nattering nabobs of negativism.

[Shane Wahl]

OK, so two questions, just to be a little more specific....

 

1. Will the Twins spend more than $11 million dollars on starting pitching in the free agency market for pitchers next year?

2. Will the Twins staring pitching rotation rank any better than 26th in ERA next year?

 

 

After reading Ryan's comments, I think I'm going to say "No" and "No". And that second "no" feels like a gut punch. 2014 would be the fourth year in a row that would be true. I'm all for patience, but c'mon.....

 

I'll add one more...

 

#3. Is that acceptable?

 

("No. Not to me.")

 

The answer is no, no, and no, it would appear. It's hard to imagine a scenario where 1. is a no and no. 2 is a yes. Maybe if Hughes (or the equivalent) was the one signing and he had had an excellent season.

[DaveW]

I'm not sure why everyone is freaking out, Ryan is simply saying he doesn't believe you can build a contender through free agency alone, and he is correct. The only team that is bucking that trend this year is the Dodgers, who frankly have shown they don't care one iota about money, the other teams that have tried it: Angels, Yankees, etc have all done very poorly. Free agency should be a way to improve your team in areas, but at the end of the day its always going to be all about home grown talent and shrewd trades that take you to the top (along with some GOOD free agent signings)

 

I think Ryan realizes he needs to spend money this off-season and next, a couple 3-4 year deals for good to very good players, and another 2-3 solid players for 1-2 years is what we should aim for. Spending 150 mil on ANYONE at this point is not going to be in this teams best interests.

 

Let's look at the playoff teams:

Boston Red Sox: Actually they got bailed out big time by the Dodgers last year and got a ton of money and bad contracts taken off the books. The majority of their key contirbutors this year are now home grown players, or key signings (see: Ortiz several years ago)

 

Detroit: The core of this team was put together in very nice trades: Miggy, Fister, Scherzer, etc along with a few key free agent signings: Prince, Sanchez. Plus the whole having Verlander in your system never hurt as well

 

Tampa Bay: Built from within, smart trades.

 

Cleveland Indians: Def not a team built through free agency.

 

Texas Rangers: Built from within, smart trades, a couple key FA signings but nothing crazy (Beltre+Nathan)

 

Atlanta+Pitt+Cin+STL

 

All very good franchises, again they made some key signings in FA (without going over board) and made good trades and built from within.

 

The Dodgers are literally the only team who took the whole "Lets spend a bunch of money on players right now" approach, and it wouldn't shock me if the whole thing goes belly up in 3-4 years ala the Yankees.

[Jim Crikket]

OK, so two questions, just to be a little more specific....

 

1. Will the Twins spend more than $11 million dollars on starting pitching in the free agency market for pitchers next year?

2. Will the Twins staring pitching rotation rank any better than 26th in ERA next year?

 

 

After reading Ryan's comments, I think I'm going to say "No" and "No". And that second "no" feels like a gut punch. 2014 would be the fourth year in a row that would be true. I'm all for patience, but c'mon.....

 

I'll add one more...

 

#3. Is that acceptable?

 

("No. Not to me.")

 

1: Maybe. I think $11 million is not a bad place to put the over/under. It's about what I expect him to spend on pitching in free agency (unless it turns out he gets really creative/lucky in the trade market).

 

Face it, none of the top-tier arms are going to come to Minn for any price. The time to lure one or more of them here was a couple years ago when you might have been able to convince them there was enough offensive talent to compete behind them. That's no longer the case. Nobody will be tripping over themselves to sign with the Twins this offseason, especially not on a short term (1-2 year) deal.

 

John, in the interview Ryan gave you last year, he seemed to say he recognized a need to fish in the FA waters, but didn't feel those waters were as deep as you (and many of us) believed. (Based on results, it turns out he was right, by the way.) Maybe he's taking the opposite tack this year... saying publicly he won't be looking to do anything significant in FA, lower expectations, and then if he can make a deal, great. Frankly, that approach is much more Ryan-esque than what he was saying a year ago.

 

2. Probably not by much. Even with some moderate FA help, the Twins are going to have to get lucky to improve their numbers a lot among SPs. Maybe a young guy or two bounces back with a better season. Maybe a former star SP on a make-good contract actually makes good.

 

3. No, it's not acceptable. I'm just becoming more and more convinced it's also not avoidable. By not supplementing the home grown roster with legitimate MLB talent, especially pitching, the past couple of years, the opportunity to remain competitive while you wait for the young prospects to arrive and develop in to big leaguers was missed. The hole may just be too deep to dig out of in less than three more years at this point.

[John Bonnes]

I'm not sure why everyone is freaking out, Ryan is simply saying he doesn't believe you can build a contender through free agency alone, and he is correct.

 

I think most agree with the point that a contender can't be built through free agency alone. But I also think that Ryan is saying quite a bit more than that.

 

I think Ryan realizes he needs to spend money this off-season and next, a couple 3-4 year deals for good to very good players, and another 2-3 solid players for 1-2 years is what we should aim for.

 

This is where I think we disagree. His quotes, to me suggest nothing of the sort. He seems to be suggesting that now is not the time to spend money on free agents. That the time to spend money on free agents is when all the other pieces are in place. That is, I think, the question.

 

There are several good reasons to look at free agent acquisitions in the meantime.

1) To give fans a more competitive product.

2) To have assets to move at the trade deadline.

3) To raise the bar for accountability for other players.

 

I'm legitimately intrigued as to why you think we can expect him to spend "good money" this offseason and how you define "good money". I can't imagine any 3-4 year contracts. Are there some statements I haven't seen that suggest that line of thinking from Ryan?

[Alex]

I'm not sure why everyone is freaking out, Ryan is simply saying he doesn't believe you can build a contender through free agency alone, and he is correct. The only team that is bucking that trend this year is the Dodgers, who frankly have shown they don't care one iota about money, the other teams that have tried it: Angels, Yankees, etc have all done very poorly. Free agency should be a way to improve your team in areas, but at the end of the day its always going to be all about home grown talent and shrewd trades that take you to the top (along with some GOOD free agent signings)

 

I think Ryan realizes he needs to spend money this off-season and next, a couple 3-4 year deals for good to very good players, and another 2-3 solid players for 1-2 years is what we should aim for. Spending 150 mil on ANYONE at this point is not going to be in this teams best interests.

 

Let's look at the playoff teams:

Boston Red Sox: Actually they got bailed out big time by the Dodgers last year and got a ton of money and bad contracts taken off the books. The majority of their key contirbutors this year are now home grown players, or key signings (see: Ortiz several years ago)

 

Detroit: The core of this team was put together in very nice trades: Miggy, Fister, Scherzer, etc along with a few key free agent signings: Prince, Sanchez. Plus the whole having Verlander in your system never hurt as well

 

Tampa Bay: Built from within, smart trades.

 

Cleveland Indians: Def not a team built through free agency.

 

Texas Rangers: Built from within, smart trades, a couple key FA signings but nothing crazy (Beltre+Nathan)

 

Atlanta+Pitt+Cin+STL

 

All very good franchises, again they made some key signings in FA (without going over board) and made good trades and built from within.

 

The Dodgers are literally the only team who took the whole "Lets spend a bunch of money on players right now" approach, and it wouldn't shock me if the whole thing goes belly up in 3-4 years ala the Yankees.

 

Why do people think that when some people suggest the Twins spend more money, they are recommending they spend like the Dodgers, or that they want the Twins to spend $150M dollars on a player?

 

There are teams on your list that I would say spent in FA that would be "overboard" by Ryan's standards. (Tigers and Rangers as the most obvious)

[DaveW]

I think most agree with the point that a contender can't be built through free agency alone. But I also think that Ryan is saying quite a bit more than that.

 

 

 

This is where I think we disagree. His quotes, to me suggest nothing of the sort. He seems to be suggesting that now is not the time to spend money on free agents. That the time to spend money on free agents is when all the other pieces are in place. That is, I think, the question.

 

There are several good reasons to look at free agent acquisitions in the meantime.

1) To give fans a more competitive product.

2) To have assets to move at the trade deadline.

3) To raise the bar for accountability for other players.

 

I'm legitimately intrigued as to why you think we can expect him to spend "good money" this offseason and how you define "good money". I can't imagine any 3-4 year contracts. Are there some statements I haven't seen that suggest that line of thinking from Ryan?

 

It also stands to reason that Terry Ryan has no reason to tip his true hand, the Twins have never been one to have a bunch of rumors and stuff leak, (which actually though it makes for boring speculation, its a good thing), while not tipping his hand and somewhat managing expectations Ryan is doing what most good GMs do (besides the Yankees and Dodgers)

 

Just remember how quickly (and quietly) the Span and Revere trades came together last off-season?

[Shane Wahl]

If Terry Ryan is simply "not tipping his hand" or is stating an obvious fact like "you cannot win through free agency alone" then good grief. I do think that those are #2 and #3 of most accurate interpretations of what he has said. I get the impression that he will see free agency as merely a way to FILL the starting rotation with one pitcher this offseason.

[ThePuck]

Span and the Nats were linked for like two, three years...the shocking thing is it didn't happen earlier, it was certainly no shock that it happened.

[Squirrel]

Span and the Nats were linked for like two, three years...the shocking thing is it didn't happen earlier, it was certainly no shock that it happened.

 

Actually, I was surprised. When it didn't happen earlier, well, thought it wouldn't. Then, boom, done, gone.

[ashbury]

I agree with Shane Wahl above, where free agents can be used (flipped) to acquire young talent. The obvious model for this is the Cubs.

 

The problem with making this part of your strategy, is you have to outbid 29 other teams to do it. And then when it's time to flip him, you can have 29 teams replying "I didn't even want him at that price, free and clear. Now I need to give you a prospect for the right to pay him that same salary?"

 

Yes, of course such trades do get made, for a variety of reasons such as key injuries, but the obstacle is still there if you're truly basing your strategy around the idea. How much could the Twins get for Correia or Willingham? For that matter, how much could their respective teams get for Greinke or Anibal Sanchez? The Feldman trade looks to me to be about the best you can hope for, and the downside to the strategy is if you acquired Willingham only to be a trade chip after a year, and have him end 2012 disabled instead and a shell of himself in 2013. On average, I think, the strategy won't fill up the farm system with very many prospects.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Span and the Nats were linked for like two, three years...the shocking thing is it didn't happen earlier, it was certainly no shock that it happened.

 

One could make the case that it was allowing the move to drag out that allowed the Twins to get someone like Meyer in return. I seriously doubt (though I could be wrong) that his name was mentioned the first time Washington approached the Twins.

 

And just because pundits or journalists are mooting a possible trade does not mean it was actually in the works.

 

And certainly no one (or very few people) expected Revere to go so quickly afterward.

[ThePuck]

One could make the case that it was allowing the move to drag out that allowed the Twins to get someone like Meyer in return. I seriously doubt (though I could be wrong) that his name was mentioned the first time Washington approached the Twins.

 

And just because pundits or journalists are mooting a possible trade does not mean it was actually in the works.

 

And certainly no one (or very few people) expected Revere to go so quickly afterward.

 

Semantics aside, Span getting trading to the Nats wasn't a surprise was my point. Would have been a bigger shock if he hadn't been at least traded.

 

Revere trade was a huge shock.

[nicksaviking]

The problem with making this part of your strategy, is you have to outbid 29 other teams to do it. And then when it's time to flip him, you can have 29 teams replying "I didn't even want him at that price, free and clear. Now I need to give you a prospect for the right to pay him that same salary?"

 

Well it's like playing the stock market. You need to speculate a few buy low guys who have clear upside thus an ability to sell higher than when you bought them. Correia, Pelfrey, Carroll and Doumit are not the kind of players who can accomplish this. You need to go after low floor/high ceiling guys. Ryan seems to try to avoid the boom or bust scenario by going after high floor/low ceiling guys. However, as it keeps turning out, these seemingly safer free agents actually have a pretty low floor themselves.

 

As to the last sentence, the Twins refusal to eat salary has been talked about a ton. I guess if they are unwilling to do so, this kind of free agent flipping is probably always going to be a problem for them.

[Siehbiscuit]

It seems everyone has a different interpretation of Ryan's quotes. To me, it sounds like FA is a very low priority compared to the other 5 ways to acquire players. The factors as to why this ranks low on his priority list is to me the question that should be asked.

 

1) Maybe he doesn't like signing 30+ because at that age they are more likely to breakdown.

2) Maybe at 30+ years old he feels he's paying for prior performance, not future performance.

 

I don't disagree, but if he never "swings" the FA "bat" he will never hit a game-winner. Nearly all of his FA signings are for low-risk, low-ceiling (even low-floor) and low reward type of guys. The boldest moves he made was a VERY cheap incentive laden deal for Rich Harden.

[Siehbiscuit]

In a different article I suggested a couple of candidates to target in FA. One of them being, Ubaldo Jimenez at 5/65. Others suggested that BRef has him listed in the 3/$39M range ($13/yr). For the Twins to compete, risks like Jimenez (not for sure him but as an example) need to be taken. Someone else will give him a 4 year deal, the Twins are NOT an attractive destination for players to want to come to. Adding an extra year or two needs to be done as a risk, as a marketing of sorts to other FA's that we are an organization that is serious about winning. Sometimes an investment in a player is more about making a statement than just that one specific player (see Joe Mauer's contract).

 

All that said, Ryan won't stretch the wallet and get outside his comfort zone.