Article: Dissension on Spending?

[jokin]

I actually would disagree. Last year Ryan complained that free agents didn't want to come to Minnesota. Many people around here didn't buy it, believing that Ryan simply didn't put the best offers out there. If Ryan was being honest last year (or partially honest) then the Twins need to be out front this year with a big sign saying "Open For Business."

 

It's going to take an image change to attract free agents. If free agents don't want to come here due to the losing, the Twins need to be advertising that the culture has changed and they are willing to do what it takes to win. Cleveland did it last year and they didn't have trouble courting free agents.

 

Amen. I've been advocating that the Twins, in their highly favorable position with a new stadium and vast new revenue streams, should have employed just this strategy the last 2 off-seasons. A mixed strategy, employing elements of what Cleveland/KC/Red Sox/Jays did leading into 2013 would have kept the Twins avoiding sailing into the never-to-return-to-relevancy Bermuda Triangle, anchored in Laughingstock Harbor. Sadly, for a franchise's GM who thinks his best move ever was dumping Scott Erickson for nothing, I hold little hope that the barnacle-laden Ship of State has any intellectual dynamism left in the cranial cargo hold to undertake such a strategy.

[jokin]

Perhaps the best free agent they could sign is a backup catcher named Joe Girardi.

 

Same page, my friend. (Or at least I think so:D).

[Marta Shearing]

Some people wanna call it "good cop, bad cop". I call it an elaborate scheme of lying.

[Thrylos]

I think people are missing the point of what Terry Ryan is saying, or at least I hope I am catching what he is saying.

If you look at the free agent market for this upcoming off season, we have:

Player ERA

Barry Zito 5.91

Tim Lincecum 4.44

Scott Feldman 3.51

Phil Hughes 5.07

Joba Chamberlain 4.97

Ervin Santana 3.16

 

Now let me throw some Twins numbers at you:

 

Sam Deduno 3.83

Drew Albers 3.98

Kevin Correia 4.29

Mike Pelfrey 5.34

Kyle Gibson 6.53

.

 

ERA? On the other hand you are talking about Ryan, so all is possible...

 

Zito is retiring.

 

Look at all Free Agent SPs under the age of 32. Calculate their average K/9 the last 3 seasons. List in decreasing K/9. Pick the top 3. These are the ones that the Twins should sign...

 

Hint: a pitcher who was born in Minneapolis is near the top of the list...

[richardkr34]

Sign Phil Hughes. SHould be reasonable and his road splits look favorable.

[old nurse]

 

 

Look at all Free Agent SPs under the age of 32. Calculate their average K/9 the last 3 seasons. List in decreasing K/9. Pick the top 3. These are the ones that the Twins should sign...

 

Hint: a pitcher who was born in Minneapolis is near the top of the list...

 

Hint in the last 3 years he missed half of his team's games while on the dl. You might like that part so you get to see more of an Albers or similar pitcher.

[old nurse]

I do not dislike Gardy, but Holy Cow, you can get one of the two best managers out there.

Would that mean the Twins shouldn't sign Hughes?

[TheLeviathan]

Excellent post. To answer your question toward the end, I believe Ryan will target his classic "innings eaters" (even if the really aren't....looking at you Kevin) to fix the problem. Even beyond Ryan's principles on FA, I think he believes simply being competent for five innings qualifies you as a good pitcher.

 

Thankfully we are drafting players who profile as higher talents but I still think our standards for good pitching haven't evolved enough.

[clutterheart]

Nick

Great post. You summed up almost my exact feelings on this team's direction much better than I ever could. Every time I try I end up using cuss words, my mouth spittle starts to foam and it drips on the keyboard then the moisture breaks my computer.

[Dman]

Excellent post. To answer your question toward the end, I believe Ryan will target his classic "innings eaters" (even if the really aren't....looking at you Kevin) to fix the problem. Even beyond Ryan's principles on FA, I think he believes simply being competent for five innings qualifies you as a good pitcher.

 

Thankfully we are drafting players who profile as higher talents but I still think our standards for good pitching haven't evolved enough.

 

I agree Ryan will do the same thing he always does in free agency. There will be no big signings. He is determined to rebuild like the Royals, Pirates, Baltimore and Houston are doing and that is don't be afraid to be incredibly bad and draft high until the farm is finally stocked and you come out with a couple of super stars. Then see what pieces are missing and maybe finally fill in with free agency. That isn't going to change anytime soon I don't believe.

 

It would be nice if he would at least look at the cubs approach and buy decent free agents and then trade them for prospects at the deadline. That way you can essentially buy prospects. Tough thing there is they have to do well or you are stuck with them.

 

Also would be nice if the Twins would pony up at least 50 to 60 million posting fee for Tanaka just to prove that are willing to overspend like several other teams but I doubt they have what it takes to win any kind of bidding war.

 

Regardless of what is said I believe Ryan is in charge and this is an old fashioned rebuild. It was hard to watch this year so even though I like picking high in the draft they need to get better soon or it is going to be hard to stay interested in this team.

[PseudoSABR]

Can the Twins really expect to sell any tickets at the beginning of the season if they come with something less than 80 million payroll (much less 70 or 60)? Whether or not actual success arises from spending money on FA pitching is debatable, but if the Twins want to fulfill their implicit public contract with the local fans, they'll probably spend the money.

 

Short term deals, even on riskier players, don't hamper the future and have the potential to turn into tradeable assets.

[ThePuck]

People keep saying we are rebuilding. What are we doing that other teams, who aren't in rebuilding mode, AREN'T doing? We're drafting...everyone drafts. We're signing international talent, so is everyone else. Aren't we just waiting and praying to the Gods that a seriously higher than normal percentage of our prospects end up above average of better? Is that actively rebuilding?

 

We did the two trades...the Span and Revere ones...but besides that, what exactly are we doing differently from any other team including teams that retool or are right in the thick of things?

[TheLeviathan]

Can the Twins really expect to sell any tickets at the beginning of the season if they come with something less than 80 million payroll (much less 70 or 60)? Whether or not actual success arises from spending money on FA pitching is debatable, but if the Twins want to fulfill their implicit public contract with the local fans, they'll probably spend the money.

 

Short term deals, even on riskier players, don't hamper the future and have the potential to turn into tradeable assets.

 

I think they are banking on the season ticket sales being locked in to get AS game tix. The Twins have very successfully marketed that.

[howieramone1406390264]

People keep saying we are rebuilding. What are we doing that other teams, who aren't in rebuilding mode, AREN'T doing? We're drafting...everyone drafts. We're signing international talent, so is everyone else. Aren't we just waiting and praying to the Gods that a seriously higher than normal percentage of our prospects end up above average of better? Is that actively rebuilding?

 

We did the two trades...the Span and Revere ones...but besides that, what exactly are we doing differently from any other team including teams that retool or are right in the thick of things?

IMHO, rebuilding is one of those things in life, where if you have to ask, it's probably impossible to explain it to you.

[Guest USAFChief]

IMHO, rebuilding is one of those things in life, where if you have to ask, it's probably impossible to explain it to you.

Go ahead, give it a shot anyway. What the heck.

[howieramone1406390264]

Go ahead, give it a shot anyway. What the heck.

Some things I only do for money. If you're talking an ownership interest, have your people get ahold of mine.

[The Wise One]

People keep saying we are rebuilding. What are we doing that other teams, who aren't in rebuilding mode, AREN'T doing? We're drafting...everyone drafts. We're signing international talent, so is everyone else. Aren't we just waiting and praying to the Gods that a seriously higher than normal percentage of our prospects end up above average of better? Is that actively rebuilding?

 

We did the two trades...the Span and Revere ones...but besides that, what exactly are we doing differently from any other team including teams that retool or are right in the thick of things?

Every team hopes that a high percentage of their signings turn out. What a rebuilding team does is trade assess for players that will someday be better than he one they traded. A retooling team has a replacement ready and thus is getting ahead in the game before they have to rebuild.

Why is this even an issue? What label your team has, rebuilding, retooling, or whatever, is meaningless. All teams are trying to get better short term and long term. Long term planning means that if you have success it will generally last longer. Quick fixes might appease fans, but will be like a 1985 Kcar, it will always need fixing

[Sano&Buxton Duo]

We seriously need to bring the check book to Japan and sign Masahiro Tanka

20-0 1.24 era

I swear I will scream if we don't get this guy he's only 24 (turning 25 in November).

This might sound crazy but let's go out and sign Jacoby Ellsbury because of his ability to get on base at the top of the order and his speed. Don't ever forget his defense, awesome. I know he has had injury problems but he's a good veteran and think 2015 Ellsbury - CF

Buxton - RF/LF

Arcia/Hicks - RF/LF

Awesome outfield. I think maybe a 3 year with the option of 4 years sounds ok give enough time for Max Kepler to prove him self in the Minors.

[launchingthrees]

I'd rather risk 40 million on 1-2 year deals than the 100% certainty of being horrible for the 4th straight year.

[ThePuck]

Every team hopes that a high percentage of their signings turn out. What a rebuilding team does is trade assess for players that will someday be better than he one they traded. A retooling team has a replacement ready and thus is getting ahead in the game before they have to rebuild.

Why is this even an issue? What label your team has, rebuilding, retooling, or whatever, is meaningless. All teams are trying to get better short term and long term. Long term planning means that if you have success it will generally last longer. Quick fixes might appease fans, but will be like a 1985 Kcar, it will always need fixing

 

It's an issue because there seems to be this popular idea that we shouldn't utilize every avenue to get better as soon as possible (i.e., free agency) because we are 'rebuilding'. That we shouldn't be bothered funds available aren't being used because we are 'rebuilding'. That we should meekly accept all this losing because we are rebuilding. So I asked, what are we doing, as a rebuilding team, that every other team, including teams that are contenders, aren't doing? Rebuilding seems to be an excuse to defend not spending, to defend yet another carp season, to defend in general...so we should at least know what we're doing that is unique to rebuilding that other teams aren't doing, to include contenders.

 

Truth is, all we are doing is waiting...treading water (well, not really...that usually means your head isn't underwater)...and hoping beyond hope a huge percentage of our prospect turn out to be very good because we NEED it to. With so little major league talent, and out inability to utilize FA, that is our only shot...and history shows, that's an extremely long road to travel.

[howieramone1406390264]

I'd rather risk 40 million on 1-2 year deals than the 100% certainty of being horrible for the 4th straight year.

 

I don't think we are going to be horrible next year. I think we will make the leap to not very good.

[Major League Ready]

People keep saying we are rebuilding. What are we doing that other teams, who aren't in rebuilding mode, AREN'T doing? We're drafting...everyone drafts. We're signing international talent, so is everyone else. Aren't we just waiting and praying to the Gods that a seriously higher than normal percentage of our prospects end up above average of better? Is that actively rebuilding?

 

We did the two trades...the Span and Revere ones...but besides that, what exactly are we doing differently from any other team including teams that retool or are right in the thick of things?

 

We made two pretty significant trades (Span and Revere) for pitching prospects and one current player (Worley). I think most people expected Worley to be a pretty solid middle of the rotation guy. Those were solid moves that differentiated us from teams that were not rebuilding. I am sure Ryan would have loved to make other trades at the deadline this year but what exactly would he have traded on than Perkins? Who was going to bring anything that mattered.

 

We also played prospects hoping some of them would make the leap. This is another difference you ignored. Plouffe, Dozier, Parmelee, Flormon, Hicks, Arcia, Escobar, Hermann, and a whole host of pitchers fall into this category. This is how teams that are not in the top 10 revenue markets rebuild. Even when this worksout it is going to mean more losses so some people are going to complain. It did not work out very well so people are going to REALLY complain. Many people were ready to toss Dozier on the scrap heap. It looks like he will be a darn good asset in the future so something good did come out of this season. Florimon also established himself defensively. There is still a reasonable chance he can be a ML average SS offensively, especially with his speed.

 

Of course all teams are drafting. This tact hardly proves a point. What would make more sense is to comapre the Twins to the other teams that are rebuilding. Are Houston and Miami adding top FAs? I think Houston's payroll is $12M. Are they that incredibly cheap or is a low payroll consistent with a rebuilding team with revenues in the bottom half of the leauge? What am I missing? What arent the Twins doing these rebuilding teams are doing?

 

CHCs have been more aggressive and praised here. So far they have made no more progress than the Twins in the W/L column. Their biggest acquistion (Jackson) has been a failure. We will see if he can make a comeback next year or if his contract is a detriment for the next 3 years. They did hit on Feldman but the leauge certainly did not think he was any more likely to pan out than several other FA SPs. They whiffed on Baker too so you can hardly look at what they did as a model of success.

 

I think there is plenty to complain about but FA SP is a quick fix outlook. Our inability to draft and develop pitchers should be the overwhelming complaint IMO. If not for the recent resurgence of the minor leauge system I would be leading the charge to replace the bulk of the Twins FO. They have done such a good job of turning it around that from a distance it looks like they have figured some things out in the drafting dept both domestically and internationally.

 

I am still not completely sold in terms of drafting and development but I have no problem with has happened the past couple years in free agency. It is not even a little bit hard for me to believe TR has an uphill battle getting players to come here right now. We were linked to ejust about every FA pitcher out there last year. It is very easy from a keyboard to say just get it done but another thing entirely when you are in a battle with 29 other teams for FAs, especially when many of them have much deeper pockets or a better opportunity to win right now.

[Kwak]

Jumping on the Cubs as a way to deflect criticism is way off base. The discussion should be about are the Twins managed in a way consistent with the prime directive of building Target Field? Are the fans treated as mindless cretins?--who really don't matter that much because the other than ticket sales sources of revenue are so large that fans can be ignored? Ok Houston and Miami are taking that tack--but are the Twins next?

[Oxtung]

Hint in the last 3 years he missed half of his team's games while on the dl. You might like that part so you get to see more of an Albers or similar pitcher.

 

I'll take the chance at greatness over the guaranteed back end starter every day. Doubly so since that cash "saved" was not used to improve the product elsewhere last season.

 

We seriously need to bring the check book to Japan and sign Masahiro Tanka

20-0 1.24 era

I swear I will scream if we don't get this guy he's only 24 (turning 25 in November).

This might sound crazy but let's go out and sign Jacoby Ellsbury because of his ability to get on base at the top of the order and his speed. Don't ever forget his defense, awesome. I know he has had injury problems but he's a good veteran and think 2015 Ellsbury - CF

Buxton - RF/LF

Arcia/Hicks - RF/LF

Awesome outfield. I think maybe a 3 year with the option of 4 years sounds ok give enough time for Max Kepler to prove him self in the Minors.

 

Mike is that you?!?

[Oxtung]

We made two pretty significant trades (Span and Revere) for pitching prospects and one current player (Worley). I think most people expected Worley to be a pretty solid middle of the rotation guy. Those were solid moves that differentiated us from teams that were not rebuilding. I am sure Ryan would have loved to make other trades at the deadline this year but what exactly would he have traded on than Perkins? Who was going to bring anything that mattered.

 

We also played prospects hoping some of them would make the leap. This is another difference you ignored. Plouffe, Dozier, Parmelee, Flormon, Hicks, Arcia, Escobar, Hermann, and a whole host of pitchers fall into this category. This is how teams that are not in the top 10 revenue markets rebuild. Even when this worksout it is going to mean more losses so some people are going to complain. It did not work out very well so people are going to REALLY complain. Many people were ready to toss Dozier on the scrap heap. It looks like he will be a darn good asset in the future so something good did come out of this season. Florimon also established himself defensively. There is still a reasonable chance he can be a ML average SS offensively, especially with his speed.

 

Of course all teams are drafting. This tact hardly proves a point. What would make more sense is to comapre the Twins to the other teams that are rebuilding. Are Houston and Miami adding top FAs? I think Houston's payroll is $12M. Are they that incredibly cheap or is a low payroll consistent with a rebuilding team with revenues in the bottom half of the leauge? What am I missing? What arent the Twins doing these rebuilding teams are doing?

 

CHCs have been more aggressive and praised here. So far they have made no more progress than the Twins in the W/L column. Their biggest acquistion (Jackson) has been a failure. We will see if he can make a comeback next year or if his contract is a detriment for the next 3 years. They did hit on Feldman but the leauge certainly did not think he was any more likely to pan out than several other FA SPs. They whiffed on Baker too so you can hardly look at what they did as a model of success.

 

I think there is plenty to complain about but FA SP is a quick fix outlook. Our inability to draft and develop pitchers should be the overwhelming complaint IMO. If not for the recent resurgence of the minor leauge system I would be leading the charge to replace the bulk of the Twins FO. They have done such a good job of turning it around that from a distance it looks like they have figured some things out in the drafting dept both domestically and internationally.

 

I am still not completely sold in terms of drafting and development but I have no problem with has happened the past couple years in free agency. It is not even a little bit hard for me to believe TR has an uphill battle getting players to come here right now. We were linked to ejust about every FA pitcher out there last year. It is very easy from a keyboard to say just get it done but another thing entirely when you are in a battle with 29 other teams for FAs, especially when many of them have much deeper pockets or a better opportunity to win right now.

 

The Astros have decided the best way to return to contention is to burn it down, be terrible and draft as high as they can. They sold all the assets they have.

 

The Marlins signed a bunch of big name free agents then traded them for several quality prospects (that may not have been the intention at the beginning but it the result). They too have shipped off most of their veterans and are now integrating their prospects into what will hopefully be a playoff team soon. Sooner than the Twins I'd wager, if they can find a way to keep Stanton.

 

The Cubs signed the most consistent pitcher available last off season to try and help stabilize their rotation and while it hasn't worked so far that doesn't mean it was a bad move (personally I expect him to rebound next season nicely). They have traded some of the assets they acquired during the offseason. I think the single biggest move they made is to attack international free agency with reckless abandon. They spotted a loophole and the exploited it to what looks like will be their advantage. By the way, the Cubs W/L record might be bad but their runs scored/runs allowed is 100 runs better than the Twins. That is a massive difference. It seems to be sheer blind "luck" that the Cubs record is as bad as it is this season.

 

All 3 of these teams have a set path they have taken to return to contention. They have identified some nitch in the system they believe will help them return to contention better than the rest of the rebuilding teams. The Twins on the other hand don't seem to be choosing any path to maximize their chances. The Astros, Marlins and Cubs might not all be immediately successful with their approaches but at least one can look at them and see what they are trying to do. One can acknowledge they have a plan and they are doing everything in their power to make that plan return them to relevance faster/better/longer than their competitors. How exactly are the Twins maximizing their chances of returning to contention?

[old nurse]

I'll take the chance at greatness over the guaranteed back end starter every day. Doubly so since that cash "saved" was not used to improve the product elsewhere last season.

 

A one in 4 chance that the player will play in 30 games for the season. Signing him you will get the back end starter. That was my missed point.

Greatness? Maybe very goodness, but maybe not with the way he threw this year.

[gunnarthor]

The Astros, Marlins and Cubs might not all be immediately successful with their approaches but at least one can look at them and see what they are trying to do. One can acknowledge they have a plan and they are doing everything in their power to make that plan return them to relevance faster/better/longer than their competitors. How exactly are the Twins maximizing their chances of returning to contention?

 

You honestly can't see what the Twins are doing? I mean, I think it's ok to disagree but it's pretty clear the FO is building for the future around a core of Sano and Buxton. They aren't getting distracted and ignoring the best talent (ie taking someone like Gausman to fix a present need over Buxton). They aren't adding parts that will negatively impact the 2015 and beyond teams (ie, paying Jackson 10m/year). They are moving talent at good times - both Span and Revere were traded at pretty good times to maximize their return. They've made nice use of waiver claims and rule v picks. They've made some nice FA signings that won't adversely affect the rebuild. And the first wave of talent came up this year when Gibson, Hicks and Arcia debuted and Dozier and Florimon established themselves as decent MI options (esp defensively). Next year we'll see Meyer, May, Sano and possibly Buxton and Rosario.

 

I mean, we can argue about how they dot the i's and cross the t's. But to say that the Marlins, who really, really screwed over their fans and still have a worse farm system than us, are in better shape seems to be purposefully antagonistic. Maybe the Twins should have let Mauer go to the Red Sox last year in a waiver claim, dropped payroll to 20m and fought for the #1 pick (Rodon seems like he could be a true ace) but I don't think that would have gone over that well with the fans (and the Red Sox sure weren't going to take on his salary and give us Bogaerts). I do think Ryan should have traded Perkins this year and I hope he moves him this offseason. But that's the i's and t's.

[gunnarthor]

Can the Twins really expect to sell any tickets at the beginning of the season if they come with something less than 80 million payroll (much less 70 or 60)? .

 

What if Sano makes the team out of ST? I think that would help ticket sales. And if Buxton debuts after the all-star game?

 

(I'm not arguing that they shouldn't spend money necessarily but they shouldn't spend money on the Edwin Jackson and Ryan Dempsters right now. I do think they should spend money to get some of these Cuban defectors and Japanese FA who are young enough to be part of the next core).

[cmathewson]

I think Ryan is more at risk than Gardenhire. His insistence on not spending through free agency is growing untenable. I wouldn't be shocked if he's shown the door at the end of the year unless he can acquiesce to building a winner in the near term, which necessarily involves free agency.

[TheLeviathan]

What if Sano makes the team out of ST? I think that would help ticket sales. And if Buxton debuts after the all-star game?

 

(I'm not arguing that they shouldn't spend money necessarily but they shouldn't spend money on the Edwin Jackson and Ryan Dempsters right now. I do think they should spend money to get some of these Cuban defectors and Japanese FA who are young enough to be part of the next core).

 

Personally I don't believe prospect hope sells season tickets. That won't be enough.