Predictions on Oswaldo Arcia

[Coach J]

Is anyone else concerned by the fact the Arcia has really came back down to earth after his first go around in the majors? He seems like he really has a tough time against a good fastball and that down and in breaking ball. As we have seen with numerous Twins hitters, big league pitchers are really good at finding holes in swings. Wondered about the confidence level Twins territory has in Arcia to hit major league pitching. Lets hear a prediction on his numbers going forward in the coming years.

[howieramone1406390264]

To me the most important number is he made it to Target Field at 22. I see 25 HR's and .280 BA. Also, I have no doubt he will be no worse that average defensively. I've read 2 or 3 scouting reports and there is no hint he's Hammerlike.

[Kwak]

About two months ago I thought Arcia was a White Sox OF in a Twins uniform. I still think that way. I don't see a big future for Arcia.

[Winston Smith]

David Ortiz light. No real good position, even being Ortiz light would be ok as a DH.

[LaBombo]

To me the most important number is he made it to Target Field at 22. I see 25 HR's and .280 BA. Also, I have no doubt he will be no worse that average defensively. I've read 2 or 3 scouting reports and there is no hint he's Hammerlike.

Agree with the first part. As a fan base, we're a bit rusty at projecting what a 22 year old who sticks in the majors may turn out to be, because it hasn't happened very often. Just the fact that he's here and not overmatched is pretty cool.

 

But Arcia will need to improve his contact rate just to avoid seeing his batting average decline when his good luck with balls in play comes back to earth. His K rate is in Adam Dunn/Mark Reynolds territory. And if he doesn't walk more, he could turn out to be one of those guys who hits .280 with 25 homers but doesn't really do much to help the club win.

 

Defensively, at this point he's pretty much just an ox with a glove stuck to one horn. He looks terrible, and every defensive metric hates him with a passion. He'll probably get better due to experience alone, but barring a breakthrough it's hard to see his defense not being some shade of liability.

[Willihammer]

I like Arcia more than any of the rookies. The pop is there - he has more home runs at TF (7) than any lefthander except Justin Morneau (9) but he's done it in 200 fewer PAs. He has the most "no doubt" home runs at TF (2). But he's only connecting on 70% of his swings. That number will go up as he gains better plate discipline, I think, and the home runs and hits will follow. I think we're looking at a .900 hitter in 2015.

[Seth Stohs]

Zero concern. I compared him with Jason Kubel probably starting in 2010, and I think that's a realistic expectation. .280-.300, 20-30 homers. Could have a couple of seasons above those thresholds. Defense is fine, and the only reason to move him to DH is because you have a pretty strong defensive OF with Hicks, Rosario and Buxton.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I think his minor league numbers are too good to expect him to be less than excellent.

 

He will be a cornerstone of the Twins future, along with our soon-to-be hotshots.

[ThePuck]

I think his minor league numbers are too good to expect him to be less than excellent.

 

He will be a cornerstone of the Twins future, along with our soon-to-be hotshots.

 

Slowey's minor league numbers were excellent too. The list of players who have had great numbers in the minors who busted or only became okay players at the MLB level is pretty large. I believe he'll be a good player, like a Kubel, and there's nothing wrong with that.

[stringer bell]

Arcia has a bright future if he doesn't get too concerned with hitting each pitch 500 feet. He'll probably remain (overly) aggressive for quite a while, but he has hit at every level, not so much for power as overall good numbers. We know he's strong enough to reach the seats to any part of the park, but he needs to make more contact and that means trying to hit balls where they are pitched and quit chasing so many balls out of the zone, especially with two strikes.

[Marta Shearing]

I think he's gonna be great. My 2015 outfield is Rosario, Buxton, Hicks. Arcia is my DH.

[Steve Lein]

As a 22-year old doing what he has done at the Major League level, he's going to be just fine. You probably won't see many (if any) All-Star game appearances, but a .280/.330/.480-ish hitter is a very good piece to have in your lineup.

 

But he's likely destined for DH duties as I think he's you're prototypical "average" defensive RF-er at his peak (he's not there now).

[LaBombo]

Zero concern. I compared him with Jason Kubel probably starting in 2010, and I think that's a realistic expectation. .280-.300, 20-30 homers. Could have a couple of seasons above those thresholds.

Kubel moved through the minors just as quickly as Arcia, but with a SO% that was half that of Arcia's.

 

Setting that aside, let's say he turns out to be pretty much Jason Kubel, maybe with a bit lower average and a bit more power, or maybe not, but pretty much the same net offensive value. Here's the problem with that.

 

Jason Kubel wasn't very good.

 

Like several other Twins hitters, he had a career year in 2009, putting up an impressive 135 OPS+. But other than that, he posted OPS+'s of 110, 115, 105, and 110 in his 4 other full seasons for the Twins.

 

Throw defense into the mix with WAR and it gets even worse. 0.4, 0.6, 2.5, -0.4, and 0.7. Ouch.

 

So unless Arcia is Kubel 2009 instead of just Kubel, he'll be a disappointment after his rapid advancement through the minors. I'm hoping for the '09 version. Either way, he'll be fun to watch.

[Marta Shearing]

Kubel was mediocrity defined. Arcia darn well be better than kubel. Kubel was a great gap hitter before the knee injury. After that he got fat, lazy, and tried to hit HR's every atbat.

[LaBombo]

Kubel was mediocrity defined. Arcia darn well be better than kubel. Kubel was a great gap hitter before the knee injury. After that he got fat, lazy, and tried to hit HR's every atbat.

Not sure about his approach or conditioning changing, but he definitely wasn't the same player after the injury, especially defensively. But it's still early enough for Arcia that we really don't know what to expect.

[adjacent]

Kubel was mediocrity defined. Arcia darn well be better than kubel. Kubel was a great gap hitter before the knee injury. After that he got fat, lazy, and tried to hit HR's every atbat.

Oh, my! Give a lot of mediocrity like Kubel's over what we have to watch on the field these days. Coming back to the topic, I think Arcia will be fine. He'll learn a little bit more discipline, more patience, and will give some power in the middle of the ine up for years to come.

[Shane Wahl]

I absolutely hope and think Arcia will be better than Kubel. Kubel was great in 2009, good in 2012 for Arizona, and then merely above average or average the rest of his career. There is no disputing that. That wouldn't be acceptable for Arcia. I think averaging .285 with 25-28 homers for several years is a reasonable guess. That's good.

[ThePuck]

Fun fact: Cuddyer and Kubel had the exact same OPS as Twins. That being .794. That would be good for 19th in MLB this year for OFs and 9th for MLB RFs.

 

..and Kubels OPS+ as a Twin was 1 point higher than Cuddy's.

 

I think people under-valued Kubel in relation to Cuddy for the same reason many undervalued Span's defense in relation to Revere's defense...personality.

[big dog]

I predicted in a game thread last week that Arcia would absolutely destroy the Twins' single-season record for strikeouts some year soon. It's 145, by Bobby Darwin (closely challenged by Carlos Gomez, 142, and Willingham, 142 last year). He might break it in August.

 

145 is a pretty low total for an all-time team record, though. A dozen guys have already exceeded that this year alone, led by Chris Carter with 199 K's so far. Adam Dunn has been at 165 or higher for all 11 years he's played a full season.

 

I'm with others, .280 with 20+ homers. I hope his strikeouts don't hit Dunn levels, though- that would make .280 a lot tougher. I haven't been very impressed with his defense so far. I hope he gets more comfortable out there.

 

Evan Longoria has as many strikeouts now as Mark Reynolds (though with 150 more ABs). I could live with Arcia at Longoria's level!

[Kwak]

Koneko's first AB last night illustrates the difference between a professional power hitter and the Twins hitters. Konerko attacked pitches up and over the plate, but layed-off those on the fringe--until he had 2 strikes. He kept his weight and hands back, and "reduced his swing" so that he was ready for anything low and away. If a FB (which he hit) he punched it into RF for a single. The same approach would have taken a breaking-ball up, to CF, yet allow him to "hold-up" on a breaking ball down. Arcia (and most other Twins hitters) just grip-it-and-rip-it on any count, including with two strikes. Hence, the Twins are striking-out at an alarming rate to try to hit HRs. Sadly, the Twins are only averaging a bit less than one/game, with way too many games with multiple HRs meaning a real dearth in other games. I like HRs too--and the Twins do need their share--but they need (in this thread read Arcia) to get them by attacking early in the count and cutting his swing down with two strikes to just make decent contact rather than the HR swing which he uses all of the time. A few less HRs but a much improved BAVG and OBA.

[SydneyTwinsFan]

Arcia will be fine. Let's not forget he's only 15 months removed from hitting at Ft Myers. I would expect .280/.350/.450 with 20 HR as a minimum by 2015, with the potential to be better than that.

[clutterheart]

He has always struck out too much and he has to learn how to be more selective.

I don't think he will ever be an MVP but he will look good in a line up consisting of Button & Sano

[Monkeypaws]

The wild whiffing is a concern to me. I'd like to see him take it down a notch and go for more contact; his natural power would kick in and he'd still hit plenty of homers.

[stringer bell]

Arcia hit 53 homers in over 1500 plate appearances, about one every 30 PAs, going into this year. He struck out 289 times, less than once every five PAs. This year for the Twins, he has struck out 105 times in 347 PAs. It looks to me like he is looking to launch every pitch. I like that the Twins are hitting more homers vis a vis their opponents, but if the cost is becoming strikeout machines with a small increase in long balls, maybe that isn't a transaction worth making.

[howieramone1406390264]

Koneko's first AB last night illustrates the difference between a professional power hitter and the Twins hitters. Konerko attacked pitches up and over the plate, but layed-off those on the fringe--until he had 2 strikes. He kept his weight and hands back, and "reduced his swing" so that he was ready for anything low and away. If a FB (which he hit) he punched it into RF for a single. The same approach would have taken a breaking-ball up, to CF, yet allow him to "hold-up" on a breaking ball down. Arcia (and most other Twins hitters) just grip-it-and-rip-it on any count, including with two strikes. Hence, the Twins are striking-out at an alarming rate to try to hit HRs. Sadly, the Twins are only averaging a bit less than one/game, with way too many games with multiple HRs meaning a real dearth in other games. I like HRs too--and the Twins do need their share--but they need (in this thread read Arcia) to get them by attacking early in the count and cutting his swing down with two strikes to just make decent contact rather than the HR swing which he uses all of the time. A few less HRs but a much improved BAVG and OBA.

Konerko is a good example. He was one of the top prospects in all of baseball when the Dodgers gave up on him at the same age as Arcia. He was then traded twice in 6 months before finding a home with the White Sox. The Twins have always shown a lot of patience with their top prospects.

[TheLeviathan]

I predict he'll continue to develop into a legitimate middle of the order bat. I also predict his god-awful defense will rightly relegate him to DH most of the time.

[nicksaviking]

Kubel was mediocrity defined. Arcia darn well be better than kubel. Kubel was a great gap hitter before the knee injury. After that he got fat, lazy, and tried to hit HR's every atbat.

 

I think people expect too much of the team's prospects. Getting average production from a non-elite prospect is a pretty solid expectation. That being said, Arcia has the tools to be a pretty good player. His 30% K rate is very troubling. It is quite odd though considering his career minor league K rate was less than 20%. Even if his triple slash line were not to improve much, I think it's more than likely his K rate will decrease.

 

On a possibly unrelated topic, I worry about what kind of effect all the losing may have on the young players. There certainly has to be a pall over the club's veterans who are playing for a 2014 roster spot instead of a trophy and an almost certainly despondanct managerial staff who may view every defeat as a nail in the coffin of their carreers. Is it possible a rookie may not even enjoy his first taste of the big leagues if there is a negative enough cloud hanging over the clubhouse?

 

I don't blame Gardenhire but I want a change for 2014 soley because I think it is a naturally occuring phenomenon that negativity is contageous, and I think it's very difficult to scrub off of a manager. The stink may not be comming from Gardy, but by now it surely is in his clothes.

[howieramone1406390264]

I think people expect too much of the team's prospects. Getting average production from a non-elite prospect is a pretty solid expectation. That being said, Arcia has the tools to be a pretty good player. His 30% K rate is very troubling. It is quite odd though considering his career minor league K rate was less than 20%. Even if his triple slash line were not to improve much, I think it's more than likely his K rate will decrease.

 

On a possibly unrelated topic, I worry about what kind of effect all the losing may have on the young players. There certainly has to be a pall over the club's veterans who are playing for a 2014 roster spot instead of a trophy and an almost certainly despondanct managerial staff who may view every defeat as a nail in the coffin of their carreers. Is it possible a rookie may not even enjoy his first taste of the big leagues if there is a negative enough cloud hanging over the clubhouse?

 

I don't blame Gardenhire but I want a change for 2014 soley because I think it is a naturally occuring phenomenon that negativity is contageous, and I think it's very difficult to scrub off of a manager. The stink may not be comming from Gardy, but by now it surely is in his clothes.

 

I don't share your concerns. By the time a player gets to play for money, they have already experienced losing at some point along the way. Also, it's easy to forget many of our International players grew up surrounded by a different type of losing.

[jokin]

I don't share your concerns. By the time a player gets to play for money, they have already experienced losing at some point along the way. Also, it's easy to forget many of our International players grew up surrounded by a different type of losing.

 

Once a "culture" has been established, and I think 3 years now, means it's pretty firmly established, makes it's very difficult to change an object in motion- the Law of Inertia and all....sorry, nicksaviking is right, new leaders in managerial roles as well as player roles are sorely needed to break the bonds with the recent past.

 

And I don't get the part about "International losing being a different type of losing", in my book, that's certainly not a good reason for "celebrating diversity".

[nicksaviking]

I don't share your concerns. By the time a player gets to play for money, they have already experienced losing at some point along the way. Also, it's easy to forget many of our International players grew up surrounded by a different type of losing.

 

It's not the losing that is the problem, it's what inevitably results from an extended period of losing in a group dynamic that is concerning. If present, the sense of negativity, desperation, resignation and futility is that I want the younger players removed from.