Have your cake and eat it too

[dome sweet dome]

It is admittedly early to start planning offseason moves, and we won't realistically know who is available or how much it would cost to acquire them for some time. However, I believe the recent comments from Jim Pohlad and other discussion on the topic potentially give some insight on how the rebuilding process may go from this point forward. It has gotten me thinking about what approach I would take, and also raised my level of anticipation for the upcoming 2014 Offseason Handbook. The more I read on the subject and think about what may be available this offseason, the more I feel like the Twins could realistically make moves to both strengthen the core of young talent in the organization and become a more competitive and exciting team next season.

 

With the committed payroll for 2014 currently around $60 million, the not so distant past payroll figures, and Pohlad's recent comments of being willing to spend, I do not think it would be unreasonable to assume the Twins could add an additional $30-40 million in commitments for next season. I also do not assume that any posting fee paid towards acquiring Masahiro Tanaka would be figured into that amount. I see that as a one-time expenditure which would fall into Pohlad's "any amount of money on the current year" comments. Having said that, I think the potential availability of Tanaka and Jose Abreu for nothing more than money would be a tremendous opportunity this offseason. Although the Twins and their scouts (which I am not) may have different views, it seems to me that this would be exactly the type of player you would want to target.

 

Both of these players have good upside potential and are young enough to be grouped with the core of talented prospects the Twins have acquired to potentially anchor a solid lineup for years to come. There would be no "give to get" costs associated with signing either player, so this is not a situation of mortgaging the future for a current gain.

 

I like the idea of going hard after these two players and also adding another starter or two via free agency. Some may argue that it would be too much to spend on players with no track record of success, but that is exactly why these two could be in the Twins' price range at all. It would be a gamble. They may turn out to not be worth the kind of money it would take to sign them, but the possible gain could be tremendous. I estimate that Tanaka may get a deal around 5 years/$60 million and Abreu may get 6 years/$60 million. If that is at all accurate, it would be an increase of about $22 million for the 2014 payroll. Based on my earlier assumptions, I could see another $8-18 million being made available for starting pitching.

 

The list of available free agent starters I like as potential targets include Ricky Nolasco, Tim Lincecum, Ubaldo Jiminez, and Phil Hughes. I might also take a flyer on Josh Johnson or Johan Santana at the right price. I think a 3 year/$36 million deal would be a reasonable starting point for this group with some variation thrown in. Maybe these numbers are way off, but it doesn't seem impossible to me.

[howieramone1406390264]

Good first post! I believe your estimates and targets are very close. The only thing I would add is, I've looked everywhere and I don't see where we are targeting Abreu. Once again, good job.

[Mike Sixel]

Great first post!

 

I've never understood why it isn't "eat your cake, and have it too".....

[dome sweet dome]

I also haven't seen the Twins show any interest in Abreu. That doesn't mean he doesn't interest me as a fan. I don't have the benefit of any sort of scouting ability or front office insight, but he appears to be someone I would like the team to pursue. If they have assessed that he isn't a fit based on talent or skills, I have to trust that. However, if the reason for not showing interest is purely financial, that is harder for me to swallow. He may be a bust, or he may be an above average MLB hitter who could contribute both quickly and for years to come. To me, that is the type of "all in" move I would like to see rather than something along the lines of a Myers for Shields type of trade. If the Twins don't see Abreu as that type of talent, so be it.

[Rick Blaine]

Great post-- I hope what you suggest comes true. Maybe you should become a scout:)

 

On a side note-- I was at the game Sunday and I know we're all excited* about Pinto, Doumit, Parmalee and Plouffe's contributions (and we should be as Twins fans) but Will Myers home run was a monster-- second deck high blast that took me back to my youth watching Harmon Killebrew's homers!

 

*I know the Twins are going no where in a hurry-- but I am an excitable boy.

[LaBombo]

Very good stuff, OP, even though I was a little let down when I found that this wasn't a ChiTownTwinsFan baking thread. Don't be discouraged if people claim your hopes aren't realistic. They are. Whether it actually happens... well, the suspense is what makes the off season interesting.