Article: Eddie Rosario as a Trade Chip

[Marta Shearing]

If they can get a can't miss starting pitching prospect for Rosario, they gotta do it. I just don't think any team would give up that much for Rosario. Who says he doesn't fit the corner outfield profile? He's a great hitter. That's good enough for me. And he can't be worse defensively than Arcia.

[Steve Johnson]

If they can get a can't miss starting pitching prospect for Rosario, they gotta do it.

 

Well, they can't. "Can't Miss" pitching prospects get listed towards the top of the 'best-100 prospect' charts. Rosario is near the bottom in those, if he even makes it at all.

 

And those types of prospects just aren't often traded anyways.

 

The Twins are either going to have to be uncharacteristically aggressive in free agency just to land a few decent #3s. Most likely, they are going to go with what they have, minus Pelfry, and sign some other veteran mediocrity.

 

I'd personally like them to go after Johan and Hughes, but why would either of these guys want to sign with the Twins? Same with anyone else. All these guys will recieve better multi-year offers from several other clubs and the Twins will sign whatever unfortunate marginal veteran low-end #3 who's stuck without a chair when the music stops.

[ericchri]

why would either of these guys want to sign with the Twins? Same with anyone else. All these guys will recieve better multi-year offers from several other clubs and the Twins will sign whatever unfortunate marginal veteran low-end #3 who's stuck without a chair when the music stops.

 

I think this year is proof that you may have an opportunity to start all season for the Twins (Pelfrey, Correia), where going someplace else you may have to fight for a job. That's what the Twins really have to offer at this point. It may not be much or enough to sway some guys, but for some that is very enticing. "Go to the Twins and be their #1 or #2 pitcher, or go to the _____'s who are competing for the playoffs and be their #5."

[Steve Johnson]

I think this year is proof that you may have an opportunity to start all season for the Twins (Pelfrey, Correia), where going someplace else you may have to fight for a job. That's what the Twins really have to offer at this point. It may not be much or enough to sway some guys, but for some that is very enticing. "Go to the Twins and be their #1 or #2 pitcher, or go to the _____'s who are competing for the playoffs and be their #5."

 

Well, they signed Correia because the Twins offered him what a lot of commentators considered an above-market deal. I think it was about the Money and years for him. What you say is true about Pelfrey, but honestly, Pelfrey is not a good pitcher, never really has been. Decent #3 guys will not have a problem finding a team that will commit to starting them, but borderline #4 guys like Mike Pelfrey will

[twinsfaninsaudi]

If Rosario is going to hold his own at 2B I would rather trade Dozier for a prospect.

[Oldgoat_MN]

If Rosario is going to hold his own at 2B I would rather trade Dozier for a prospect.

 

IF, indeed.

I have high hopes for Rosario, but nothing is certain.

And as far as what Dozier can net, he has had 963 MLB PA. The last 300 of them were pretty damn good.

Not great, but good.

 

Not sure what we could get for just Dozier.

[Shane Wahl]

Zero reason to trade either one of them now. Maybe near zero reason to trade either at any point in the near future.

[MichiganTwins]

One reason might be we have terrible pitching. No one wants to trade these guys because of our history of bad middle infielders, but pitching is surely a reason to trade one of these guys.

[Shane Wahl]

One reason might be we have terrible pitching. No one wants to trade these guys because of our history of bad middle infielders, but pitching is surely a reason to trade one of these guys.

 

There are other ways to acquire pitching. And if the Twins were to trade either one, then more AAAA roster pollution would occur!

[Oxtung]

There are other ways to acquire pitching. And if the Twins were to trade either one, then more AAAA roster pollution would occur!

 

Shane I completely agree with you that there are other ways to acquire good pitching, the draft, international signings and free agency. However, as much as we think those are good options, the man in charge of making those decisions disagrees. He will not spend what is required for the Twins to sign a front of the rotation pitcher because he doesn't want to commit the dollars or years. That leaves the draft, which he has clearly dived into trying to find that stud pitching, but it takes years to come to fruition. Stewart won't reach the Twins until sometime in 2016 at the earliest and probably shouldn't be counted on to be dominant until 2018/19, though I know we all hope he is Cingrani pt. 2.

 

Given that, a trade is the only way to acquire quality pitching any quicker, would you be ok with that? What would it take for you to make a Dozier/Rosario for pitcher trade (ignore whether it is possible for the moment)? A true #3 pitcher major league ready? A potential Ace that just finished up low A ball?

[Shane Wahl]

If trading either of them, I would have to get back someone who is MLB ready or very close. No low-A or high-A return.

 

I do fear that Gardenhire isn't even going to be willing to try moving Dozier back to short if Rosario forces the issue by the all-star break. I also fear that, furthermore, Willingham and Doumit are still going to be lumbering around the OF some and the temporary solution of moving Rosario to LF will be out the window too.

[drivlikejehu]

A lot of Twins fans have grossly inflated views of the value various players have as trade bait. Guys like Danny Santana, Doumit, Fien, have extremely limited value. Role players and C+ prospects do not bring back the kind of starters the Twins need.

 

I wouldn't have a problem if the Twins traded Rosario for pitching, but there's not really a need for it at the moment. They are nowhere near being competitive and Rosario's value could increase (though a decrease is also possible of course). If Dozier keeps playing well he would have decent value as well, if the Twins want to keep Rosario at 2B.

[Badsmerf]

Shane I completely agree with you that there are other ways to acquire good pitching, the draft, international signings and free agency. However, as much as we think those are good options, the man in charge of making those decisions disagrees. He will not spend what is required for the Twins to sign a front of the rotation pitcher because he doesn't want to commit the dollars or years. That leaves the draft, which he has clearly dived into trying to find that stud pitching, but it takes years to come to fruition. Stewart won't reach the Twins until sometime in 2016 at the earliest and probably shouldn't be counted on to be dominant until 2018/19, though I know we all hope he is Cingrani pt. 2.

 

Given that, a trade is the only way to acquire quality pitching any quicker, would you be ok with that? What would it take for you to make a Dozier/Rosario for pitcher trade (ignore whether it is possible for the moment)? A true #3 pitcher major league ready? A potential Ace that just finished up low A ball?

 

I think when you're trading a guy like Rosario who has future AS potential, you should want a pretty good player in return. For me, it might not be an Ace pitcher, but a very good one for sure.

[jorgenswest]

Sadly, secondbasemen don't have great trade value. As a 2B/LF prospect he is not going bring a starting pitching prospect in his same range.

 

What is the best return for a 2B in the last several years? Did any bring back a good starting pitcher?

[old nurse]

Sadly, secondbasemen don't have great trade value. As a 2B/LF prospect he is not going bring a starting pitching prospect in his same range.

 

What is the best return for a 2B in the last several years? Did any bring back a good starting pitcher?

Another 2b was one trade

Sal Butera

Clayton Mortenson

Thomas Neal

minor league pitchers that do not advance (what the Twins gave up to get a 2b)

Mike Dunn and Omar Infante for Uggla

Jacob Turner and a bunch of suspects for Infante (There was a pitcher thrown in the deal by the Marlins to make Detroit feel like it wasn't being robbed)

Off the top of my head it is difficult to remember 2basemen being moved very often, or for much. By WAR it might be the least productive position in baseball. If you can hit but not defend, you become a corner outfielder. If you can defend well, they make you a SS. If you fail as a SS, you play 2b.

[PseudoSABR]

Brandon Phillips was part of the package that landed Colon. But that was at a time when teams overpaid in prospects for veteran stars.

[nicksaviking]

Sadly, secondbasemen don't have great trade value. As a 2B/LF prospect he is not going bring a starting pitching prospect in his same range.

 

What is the best return for a 2B in the last several years? Did any bring back a good starting pitcher?

 

I can't think of many, but there is a wild card factor this offseason. The best free agent on the market this year is a 2B. There will likely be a large bidding war, and the more teams that get involved, I'd imagine the larger the vacuum that is created after he signs. GM's that usually wouldn't think twice about plugging in a utility player at 2B may be more inclined to get a consolation prize as a trophy to bring home to show thier disappointed team and fans.

 

Or, perhaps even more likely it could play out like it did last year with Denard Span and Ben Revere with the Michael Bourn free agency as the back drop. Teams may want to pre-emptively fill the position to lessen the uproar for them to go after the high priced free agent who will complicate the team's financial vision.

 

These scenarios better work with the more experienced Dozier than they do the prospect Rosario.

[Nick Nelson]

Zero reason to trade either one of them now. Maybe near zero reason to trade either at any point in the near future.

 

ZERO reason? I'd say there's a pretty substantial reason.

 

They need pitching.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Another 2b was one trade

...

Mike Dunn and Omar Infante for Uggla

By WAR it might be the least productive position in baseball.

...

Excellent point.

And exactly why they are unusually valuable. If your 2B can hit respectfully you have filled a 'usually bad hitter' spot with someone productive.

 

Rosario numbers this year at A+ (.329/.377/.527 [.903]) were excellent for the 21 year old. If he can duplicate those numbers at higher levels he will then likely be a valuable trade chip.

 

I still think it's too early to expect a lot for him.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Shane I completely agree with you that there are other ways to acquire good pitching, the draft, international signings and free agency. However, as much as we think those are good options, the man in charge of making those decisions disagrees. He will not spend what is required for the Twins to sign a front of the rotation pitcher because he doesn't want to commit the dollars or years. That leaves the draft, which he has clearly dived into trying to find that stud pitching, but it takes years to come to fruition. Stewart won't reach the Twins until sometime in 2016 at the earliest and probably shouldn't be counted on to be dominant until 2018/19, though I know we all hope he is Cingrani pt. 2.

 

Given that, a trade is the only way to acquire quality pitching any quicker, would you be ok with that? What would it take for you to make a Dozier/Rosario for pitcher trade (ignore whether it is possible for the moment)? A true #3 pitcher major league ready? A potential Ace that just finished up low A ball?

 

First off, Dozier isn't going to net a potential ace sitting in AA or AAA. He just won't. Rosario won't either. Those pitchers are virtually untouchable and for good reason.

 

Second, I get the need to adding pitching. I think the Twins still need to acquire more, and trading something to get it makes sense. Trading something that would fit into the next wave does not. I think the Twins will be looking to add another Meyer type guy to the fold, but the guy trade to get it is Perkins. He might actually have the value to get an Alex Meyer. Dozier does not. I don't think Rosario does either.

 

Third, all this trade Rosario/Dozier ignores one basic thing. The Twins also have a very pressing need at SS, and the guy that could potentially make Rosario expendable also happens to play short. Yes, I get that the defense isn't as good at SS as it is at 2B, but if the bat is for real, it more than makes up for it.

[Oxtung]

First off, Dozier isn't going to net a potential ace sitting in AA or AAA. He just won't. Rosario won't either. Those pitchers are virtually untouchable and for good reason.

 

Second, I get the need to adding pitching. I think the Twins still need to acquire more, and trading something to get it makes sense. Trading something that would fit into the next wave does not. I think the Twins will be looking to add another Meyer type guy to the fold, but the guy trade to get it is Perkins. He might actually have the value to get an Alex Meyer. Dozier does not. I don't think Rosario does either.

 

Third, all this trade Rosario/Dozier ignores one basic thing. The Twins also have a very pressing need at SS, and the guy that could potentially make Rosario expendable also happens to play short. Yes, I get that the defense isn't as good at SS as it is at 2B, but if the bat is for real, it more than makes up for it.

 

I agree that neither Dozier or Rosario is likely to bring back an Ace at AA or AAA. Knowing what your trade chips are worth is an important part of the process, but equally important, or perhaps even more important, is knowing the bare minimum return you expect to receive in the deal. This is what I was asking people to think about. What is the least amount you would except in a deal? Then you decide if that is a reasonable return. If not you keep your piece and move on. If it is reasonable then you start hunting for that piece and making offers.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I agree that neither Dozier or Rosario is likely to bring back an Ace at AA or AAA. Knowing what your trade chips are worth is an important part of the process, but equally important, or perhaps even more important, is knowing the bare minimum return you expect to receive in the deal. This is what I was asking people to think about. What is the least amount you would except in a deal? Then you decide if that is a reasonable return. If not you keep your piece and move on. If it is reasonable then you start hunting for that piece and making offers.

 

Right now, I think it would take an ace in the AA/AAA mold, and I don't think anyone is going to offer that, so the point is somewhat moot.

 

That said, given the need for a SS, I have to think that moving Dozier back there might make sense if Rosario continues to hit.

[TRex]

If we had a veteran rotation like Detroit or Tampa, I could entertain the idea of a Dozier/Rosario DP combo; but with the group of guys that the Twins will be using in 2014 and 2015 I think it would be suicide! However, maybe your ulterior motive is an Astro's-like coup of a Appel/Rodon combo!

[diehardtwinsfan]

If we had a veteran rotation like Detroit or Tampa, I could entertain the idea of a Dozier/Rosario DP combo; but with the group of guys that the Twins will be using in 2014 and 2015 I think it would be suicide! However, maybe your ulterior motive is an Astro's-like coup of a Appel/Rodon combo!

 

Nope, no ulterior motive. Dozier really struggled last year, and I suspect that had more to do with the mental approach to things. He's ensconsed now as the 2B and he showed he can play good defense on that side of the diamond. I don't expect him to be an above average SS defensively, but I do think that he can be a defensivly average SS. That's what people thought he could be before the hype, and I don't see why he couldn't still achieve that.

 

Right now, the point is relatively moot. He's not going anywhere until Rosario is ready, and that won't be until mid-season at earliest. But if Dozier hits in 2014 like he did the second half of last year, he's going to post around an .800 OPS. That plays very nice at SS with some average defense, and I have to think the Twins will be willing to consider it if Rosario is tearing the cover off the ball in Rochester.

[TRex]

I don't remember any scouting reports that suggested Dozier would (not could) be an average ML shortstop based on his minor league body of work. I realize Seth has a lot of quotes from pitchers praising Dozier's defense, but I do not recall any similar praise from talent evaluators.

 

<snip> I don't know why this is sticking in my craw... I am about as 'glass-half-full' of a Twins fan as you'll find, and would love to have the batting lineup this would afford! I promise you can have the last word if you want...

[Oxtung]

Right now, I think it would take an ace in the AA/AAA mold, and I don't think anyone is going to offer that, so the point is somewhat moot.

 

That said, given the need for a SS, I have to think that moving Dozier back there might make sense if Rosario continues to hit.

 

If you're looking for an Ace at the AA/AAA level I think you're going to be disappointed. IMO, Perkins won't bring that back either. I'm not sure the Twins have anything that would. The best bet is to find a Trevor Bauer situation. A prospect that is on the ropes for his current organization and so his value is lower than it otherwise should be. Perhaps Bundy because of his surgery? The biggest problem here is there are probably only 4 or so players that fit your criteria. Taijuan Walker, Archie Bradley, maybe Noah Syndergaard and Dylan Bundy (he certainly was pre-surgery)? I'm not sure Taillon is still considered a potential ace.

[jokin]

We got a legitimate starting pitching prospect for Butera.

 

Yeah, and that "legitimate SP prospect" is on track to be a major league reliever in 2018.

[diehardtwinsfan]

If you're looking for an Ace at the AA/AAA level I think you're going to be disappointed. IMO, Perkins won't bring that back either. I'm not sure the Twins have anything that would. The best bet is to find a Trevor Bauer situation. A prospect that is on the ropes for his current organization and so his value is lower than it otherwise should be. Perhaps Bundy because of his surgery? The biggest problem here is there are probably only 4 or so players that fit your criteria. Taijuan Walker, Archie Bradley, maybe Noah Syndergaard and Dylan Bundy (he certainly was pre-surgery)? I'm not sure Taillon is still considered a potential ace.

 

And that's why I don't think he should be traded. Dozier is young enough and under enough control that he can be a part of the next wave. I don't think his value is that high now, and I think the smart move is to roll the dice with him unless you get blown away. If June on was for real, then Dozier is worth far more next offseason, even with Rosario knocking on the door, or could be moved back to SS.

[Trevor0333]

If the Twins were willing to eat most or all of Uggla's salary enabling Atlanta some real payroll relief to resign McCann while adding in Perkins I think they could get Atkanta to listen to offers on Alex Wood.

 

Wood, Meyer, Stewart, Berrios, Gibson/May would be a fascinating rotation possibility