Article: Eddie Rosario as a Trade Chip

[Siehbiscuit]

Middle infield in general is a trouble some spot in this organization. If not for FREAKS like Buxton and Sano, Meyer (mid-20's to mid30's range) and Rosario (40's) would likely be the Twins top two prospects in the organization. These guys are building blocks. Span and Revere were traded because they were cheap and MLB ready. Rosario is not. Even if we could get a prospect like May again, is getting rid of a top 50 prospect worth it for another prospect? Dozier may have peaked in value, but at the same time he is only entering his prime right now and all the years are under team control. Both are part of the solution IMO. WORST CASE move Dozier as his value is at high level and he could fetch a High A - AA type of fireballer talent. Give Rosario 5 years and he can match or exceed Dozier's age 26 season.

 

I vote for keep both long term and move Dozier back to SS.

[markos]

All these "wait another year" responses seem to overlook a (not unlikely) possible scenario: What if Rosario struggles in Triple-A next year and Dozier regresses big-time in the majors? Then we're all looking back at how the Twins failed once again to strike when the iron was hot.

 

The "trade him now" responses don't address the questions of which pitchers are actually available this offseason, and which teams are selling. Other than David Price, who else is rumored to be on the market right now? Personally, I haven't heard of many other names, which is one of the main reasons I think it is better to wait a year. However, I'm willing to reconsider my position if there are several trade options available that I'm unaware of.

[Nick Nelson]

Lots of people suggesting that the Twins should try moving Dozier back to SS. If they had any thoughts of doing so, don't you think he might have played at least one single inning there this year? I don't see it.

[iastfan112]

All these "wait another year" responses seem to overlook a (not unlikely) possible scenario: What if Rosario struggles in Triple-A next year and Dozier regresses big-time in the majors? Then we're all looking back at how the Twins failed once again to strike when the iron was hot.

 

I understand that it's not ideal to move Rosario, knowing that he may turn out to be a great player and Dozier may turn back into a pumpkin, but when you're desperate to add pitching risks need to be taken. The Twins can live with substandard production at second base; they can't continue to live with a completely hopeless starting rotation.

 

I also would strongly disagree with the notion that Dozier has more trade value than Rosario at this point. Rosario is an above-average hitter in Double-A at age 21, whereas Dozier was a non-prospect who didn't become a full-timer in the majors until 26 and has a .684 career OPS. Other teams would likely be just as wary of a step backwards as we are.

 

If I was going to engineer a trade with either I'd do sometime in 2014 when we have a better idea what Dozier and Rosario are going to do. Trading one away now seems foolish. If you trade Rosario and Dozier turns out to be a flash in the pan the Twins have very little depth at MI. Yes one or both could have lower value next year but it very well both could go higher as well. Rosario could dominate NB or Rochester like he did Fort Myers to start this year and Dozier bring up his average to better reflect what he did in the minors. Even just maintaining his current level of play would lead to his stock increasing as he'd have a longer track record of success.

 

Striking while the iron is hot for older players who have limited time left on contracts is important but that's a significantly different situation to what we are dealing with here. Its perfectly acceptable to put out some feelers to gauge the market for either of these guys and if the right deal arises, of course, take it! That said, I wouldn't put trading either of them on my goals to accomplish this offseason.

[Brock Beauchamp]

If I was going to engineer a trade with either I'd do sometime in 2014 when we have a better idea what Dozier and Rosario are going to do. Trading one away now seems foolish. If you trade Rosario and Dozier turns out to be a flash in the pan the Twins have very little depth at MI. Yes one or both could have lower value next year but it very well both could go higher as well. Rosario could dominate NB or Rochester like he did Fort Myers to start this year and Dozier bring up his average to better reflect what he did in the minors. Even just maintaining his current level of play would lead to his stock increasing as he'd have a longer track record of success.

 

Striking while the iron is hot for older players who have limited time left on contracts is important but that's a significantly different situation to what we are dealing with here. Its perfectly acceptable to put out some feelers to gauge the market for either of these guys and if the right deal arises, of course, take it! That said, I wouldn't put trading either of them on my goals to accomplish this offseason.

 

Pretty much all of this.

[Boom Boom]

All these "wait another year" responses seem to overlook a (not unlikely) possible scenario: What if Rosario struggles in Triple-A next year and Dozier regresses big-time in the majors? Then we're all looking back at how the Twins failed once again to strike when the iron was hot.

 

I'm not convinced that Rosario, by himself, nets the Twins a pitcher who can improve their rotation right now. If I'm wrong, and a #2 who can step into the rotation immediately can be had for Rosario, go ahead and trade him. I don't want the Twins to trade him for another 3,4, or 5 guy. That's trading from a position of weakness to bolster a position of strength.

 

If you trade Rosario for a pitching prospect who profiles better than that but won't be able to step in immediately, what's the harm in waiting?

[iastfan112]

Lots of people suggesting that the Twins should try moving Dozier back to SS. If they had any thoughts of doing so, don't you think he might have played at least one single inning there this year? I don't see it.

 

If they won't even consider it they're being foolish. Had a solid reputation in the minors and no defensive metric hated him, some actually found him to be above average at the position last year! SSS I know. It comes down to do you think the roughly .100 OPS Dozier provides outweighs the defensive benefit Florimon gives. I say yes because I think Dozier can be adequate there. He's viewed as good to excellent at 2B, which of his tools fail to translate to SS and would prevent him from switching?

[Steve Lein]

For the right SP I'd send him off without a second thought, BUT, I also don't believe he's enough by himself to land what that SP needs to be for the Twins.

 

For the royals to get James Shields - not necessarily a stud but very good established MLB pitcher - it took a package built around Wil Myers.

[Larsbars08]

It isn't realistic to ask Dozier to move back to SS. He's seems pretty well established at 2B. My question is, who would be a realistic return for Rosario in the offseason? Prospect for prospect trades are practically unheard of. Lets be honest, the Pineda for Montero deal has gone horribly for both teams.

 

So it would probably be Rosario and someone else for a major league SP. I'm sure we'd all love David Price, but that doesn't seem realistic, who would be a realistic option. Are there any Gio Gonzalez types who could be potentially available? This hypothetical trade scenario is hard to evaluate without knowing the type of pitcher we could get back.

[stringer bell]

Isn't it all about projection? If the Twins can see several season of +.750 OPS, great defense out of Dozier, they might want to hang on to him. If they foresee a .300 hitter with good defense and power comparable to Dozier in Rosario, they might want to keep him. The Twins also have to project positional flixibility. Could Dozier be an above-average or better SS? Would Rosario still be an asset as a corner OF (it doesn't seem to be in the cards for him to play center)? The Twins and teams interested in acquiring one or the other have to make that judgement. A year from now, we could be much more sure or all concerned could know less for sure than they do now. I am optimistic for the future of both players. The one thing I would say is even if the younger player turns out better, it wouldn't necessarily turn out to be a mistake if he is the one moved. I do believe the Twins should learn from the last couple of years and trade players when their value is up.

[jokin]

We got a legitimate starting pitching prospect for Butera.

 

n/m

[ericchri]

If I was going to engineer a trade with either I'd do sometime in 2014 when we have a better idea what Dozier and Rosario are going to do. Trading one away now seems foolish. If you trade Rosario and Dozier turns out to be a flash in the pan the Twins have very little depth at MI. Yes one or both could have lower value next year but it very well both could go higher as well. Rosario could dominate NB or Rochester like he did Fort Myers to start this year and Dozier bring up his average to better reflect what he did in the minors. Even just maintaining his current level of play would lead to his stock increasing as he'd have a longer track record of success.

 

Striking while the iron is hot for older players who have limited time left on contracts is important but that's a significantly different situation to what we are dealing with here. Its perfectly acceptable to put out some feelers to gauge the market for either of these guys and if the right deal arises, of course, take it! That said, I wouldn't put trading either of them on my goals to accomplish this offseason.

 

I suspect I'm basically on the same page as this, even though I'm one of the "trade him now" advocates. It's not so much that trading him now is any goal I have, or that I think now is the perfect time to try and trade him. I don't know what we could get for him, obviously, but I'd sure be interested to find out when it looks like we could end up with two really good 2B who need to play by the end of next season. If nobody offers anything of value then it's irrelevant, but I wouldn't blanket rule out trading him.

[iastfan112]

It isn't realistic to ask Dozier to move back to SS. He's seems pretty well established at 2B. My question is, who would be a realistic return for Rosario in the offseason? Prospect for prospect trades are practically unheard of. Lets be honest, the Pineda for Montero deal has gone horribly for both teams.

Dozier has spent 1 year there after playing SS for the rest of his pro and college career, it shouldn't be too jarring for him.

[jokin]

We got a legitimate starting pitching prospect for Butera.

 

I was as excited as anyone at getting Sulbaran for nothing. But getting the Dodgers #31 prospect who has only achieved success at Low A ball and happens to stand only 5'10" and 165 pounds suggests the Twins got a legitimate relief pitching prospect.

 

At this point, Rosario wouldn't command a Meyer-type in trade, certainly not a Tony Cingrani-type mid-rotation guy, and maybe only a May-mimic-mirage. Not worth the risk trading for a guy who is 50-50, at best, in even ending up as a ML Starter, let alone a #3-level SP.

[cmb0252]

The FA starting pitching market is horrid. Next year isn't much better. If you want talent you are going to have to give up talent. Does that mean trading Rosario or Dozier? Maybe. Maybe not. The point is we have to at least explore the option.

 

I believe a package built around Rosario could bring a solid arm in. Who? That's a little more difficult to know. Outside of the few names that were floated around the trade deadline, Price and Lee, we won't really know till the season ends.

[jokin]

For the right SP I'd send him off without a second thought, BUT, I also don't believe he's enough by himself to land what that SP needs to be for the Twins.

 

For the royals to get James Shields - not necessarily a stud but very good established MLB pitcher - it took a package built around Wil Myers.

 

James Shields is not Kershaw or King Felix, but he is a stud. In terms of WAR, he's ranked as the #15 Starting Pitcher this year, #12 SP for 2012-13, #11 SP for 2011-13.

 

That's an Ace, and as I said on the first page, I agree with you, it would take a significant package to get a pitcher similarly ranked (like Price).

[Mike Sixel]

The FA starting pitching market is horrid. Next year isn't much better. If you want talent you are going to have to give up talent. Does that mean trading Rosario or Dozier? Maybe. Maybe not. The point is we have to at least explore the option.

 

I believe a package built around Rosario could bring a solid arm in. Who? That's a little more difficult to know. Outside of the few names that were floated around the trade deadline, Price and Lee, we won't really know till the season ends.

 

 

This seems to be the point some people aren't agreeing with as much as you and I are.....there is no place to get pitching if you don't draft it or trade for it right now, at least that's how the FA market looks this year. I don't know where people think 4-7 legit MLB starters are going to come from if they aren't willing to deal good to great prospects to get them.

[Winston Smith]

It makes sense to figure out what teams need and second baseman and do they have excess pitching.

 

An example the Braves have Dan Uggla (.8), slow, poor fielder, getting kind of old hits homeruns.

So they want to upgrade and think Dozier (2.5) is the guy. What do they have that matches up war wise with Dozier?

Julio Teheran (2.2) is close. Does anyone think the Braves make that trade?

 

Anyone else have an example that might work?

[Ozziedavisfan]

Fair enough.

 

 

 

Brian Dozier has an OPS of .735. Guaranteeing that Rosario is going to be a better hitter can't be done without a considerable amount of finger-crossing and well-wishing.

 

 

 

No. He probably won't ever be as good as Dozier has shown this season. It's always possible but, again, finger-crossing.

 

of course this is projection, still Rosario has hit at every level. So my finger cossing is that will probably continue, of course so did dozier of course dozier was older at the time. My point and I do have one is dozier is not seting the world on fire, he is OK, on a bad team. Why should I have confedence that he is going to get any better at 27 than he is at twenty six. People seem to act like his defence is akin to Alomar or something.

[Alex]

Dozier has spent 1 year there after playing SS for the rest of his pro and college career, it shouldn't be too jarring for him.

 

-3.6 UZR there last season in 80 games. Project that out to a full season and that a -7ish UZR for a full season. Those numbers would make him one of the worst three (qualified) SS this season.

[jokin]

It makes sense to figure out what teams need and second baseman and do they have excess pitching.

 

An example the Braves have Dan Uggla (.8), slow, poor fielder, getting kind of old hits homeruns.

So they want to upgrade and think Dozier (2.5) is the guy. What do they have that matches up war wise with Dozier?

Julio Teheran (2.2) is close. Does anyone think the Braves make that trade?

 

Anyone else have an example that might work?

 

Your example illustrates why WAR can lead you down a blind alley. A 22 year old potential future Ace for a Johnny-come-lately to the majors, 26-year-old who may, or may not, be a one-year anomaly? I'd pull the trigger if I was TR, in a heartbeat. I don't think the Braves would have this one as their first option to upgrade 2B. How about the Orioles? They have had success with former Twins and need someone at second. They have the pitching prospects and the less-tantalizing Chris Tillman.

[markos]

James Shields is not Kershaw or King Felix, but he is a stud. In terms of WAR, he's ranked as the #15 Starting Pitcher this year, #12 SP for 2012-13, #11 SP for 2011-13.

 

That's an Ace, and as I said on the first page, I agree with you, it would take a significant package to get a pitcher similarly ranked (like Price).

 

fWAR the past 4 seasons (2010 - 2013, AVG):

James Shields

1.7 4.5 3.9 4.0, 3.53

 

Mat Latos

4.0 3.2 2.9 4.4, 3.63

 

Gio Gonzalez

3.0 3.3 5.0 2.6, 3.46

 

Shields cost a top-5 prospect + some odds and ends.

Latos and Gonzalez both cost one prospect in the 30s, one prospect in the 50s + some odds and ends.

 

Rosario + someone good (Arcia this year, maybe Berrios next year) should be in the ballpark for a really solid pitcher with 3+ years of team control left. I feel that the Royals way overpaid for Shields relative to other recent trades.

[mattkummer]

All these "wait another year" responses seem to overlook a (not unlikely) possible scenario: What if Rosario struggles in Triple-A next year and Dozier regresses big-time in the majors? Then we're all looking back at how the Twins failed once again to strike when the iron was hot.

 

I understand that it's not ideal to move Rosario, knowing that he may turn out to be a great player and Dozier may turn back into a pumpkin, but when you're desperate to add pitching risks need to be taken. The Twins can live with substandard production at second base; they can't continue to live with a completely hopeless starting rotation.

 

I also would strongly disagree with the notion that Dozier has more trade value than Rosario at this point. Rosario is an above-average hitter in Double-A at age 21, whereas Dozier was a non-prospect who didn't become a full-timer in the majors until 26 and has a .684 career OPS. Other teams would likely be just as wary of a step backwards as we are.

 

+1000. This is one of the things that has really hurt this Twins team. People can blame Gardy, blame Mauer's injuries, bad/lack of free agent signings. But, I think the Twins, and particularly Terry Ryan's, reluctance to make trades when someone is performing well has been detrimental to this team's overall future. You never know if a promising vet is going to get hurt and never be the same, and prospects have a way of not quite living up to the hype in most cases. Sell high and fleece some desperate team who thinks they need that extra piece to win now.

[Cc-twinsball]

A thought. Dozier and package (Harrison, Santanta) for Starlin Castro. Take a shot. They have Baez coming up, he had a down year. Sell low.

[mattkummer]

And by prospects not living up to the hype in "most cases", I think we can safely assume that Sano and Buxton will not be "most cases".

[jokin]

fWAR the past 4 seasons (2010 - 2013, AVG):

James Shields

1.7 4.5 3.9 4.0, 3.53

 

Mat Latos

4.0 3.2 2.9 4.4, 3.63

 

Gio Gonzalez

3.0 3.3 5.0 2.6, 3.46

 

Shields cost a top-5 prospect + some odds and ends.

Latos and Gonzalez both cost one prospect in the 30s, one prospect in the 50s + some odds and ends.

 

Rosario + someone good (Arcia this year, maybe Berrios next year) should be in the ballpark for a really solid pitcher with 3+ years of team control left. I feel that the Royals way overpaid for Shields relative to other recent trades.

 

2011-2013 WAR

Shields 12.4

Gonzales 10.9

Latos 10.6

 

2011-13 Total Innings Pitched/Innings per Start

 

Shields 684.2/7.1

Gonzales 578/6.1

Latos 594/6.1

 

 

This is the tangible difference that Shields brought to the table, plus, it has been widely reported that he has brought a strong leadership trait to the Royals starting corps that was severely lacking in the past (ie, he set accountability standards and placed a team goal in place for the Royals to get 1000 innings from the starters). But I do agree the Royals overpaid, especially for 2 years of team control. I think Rosario plus Arcia wouldn't be nearly enough to get Price for 2 years of team control.

[nicksaviking]

Lots of people suggesting that the Twins should try moving Dozier back to SS. If they had any thoughts of doing so, don't you think he might have played at least one single inning there this year? I don't see it.

 

I haven't suggested the Twins will do this, I've just suggested they should do this. What else are they going to do with these throw away games if they aren't going to go the experiment/experience route?

 

I doubt they move him, but even if they don't try it this year, I don't think it's out of the questiong considering the last couple of years the Twins called up Colabello and Parmelee and plugged them right into RF despite the fact they hadn't played the position the entire season in AAA.

[howieramone1406390264]

A thought. Dozier and package (Harrison, Santanta) for Starlin Castro. Take a shot. They have Baez coming up, he had a down year. Sell low.

 

I have no idea what Theo would want besides the world, but I agree we should take a shot at Castro.

[DJL44]

Trading a top prospect for an established pitcher would make sense if the Twins were a .500 ballclub and ready to compete next season. They aren't. They can't afford to give up more talent than they get. They aren't close enough to the playoffs for it to make sense.

[nicksaviking]

2011-2013 WAR

Shields 12.4

Gonzales 10.9

Latos 10.6

 

2011-13 Total Innings Pitched/Innings per Start

 

Shields 684.2/7.1

Gonzales 578/6.1

Latos 594/6.1

 

 

This is the tangible difference that Shields brought to the table, plus, it has been widely reported that he has brought a strong leadership trait to the Royals starting corps that was severely lacking in the past (ie, he set accountability standards and placed a team goal in place for the Royals to get 1000 innings from the starters). But I do agree the Royals overpaid, especially for 2 years of team control. I think Rosario plus Arcia wouldn't be nearly enough to get Price for 2 years of team control.

 

But you also have to consider the Reds bought Latos for four more years from a 23-year-old still under arbitration and the Nats bought Gonzalez for three more years from a 25-year-old who was willing to negotiate an extenstion with possilbities through 2018.

 

Shields was 30 and had only two years under contract, in my opinion Latos and Gonzalez should be more valuable.