Article: Terry Ryan Discusses Ron Gardenhire's Future

[twinsnorth49]

Correia and Pelfrey did just exactly what some expected. I think TR expected alot more.

 

Some? TR said they did what you would expect, where did he indicate he expected more? That would have been refreshing, if he truly did expect more it was based on hope and prayer, which I fear a repeat of.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Very positive: I read this interview and conclude that Gardy is gone. And a change is really needed. I also think that the Twins would be better off without their "interim" GM. Less optimistic about that though.

 

I don't particularly trust the thinking / player evaluation of either. I think if the Twins had a manager who was pushing hard for high K or upside pitchers, the GM would more likely be pursuing them. So the roster construction falls partially on the manager, I think, too.

 

He's not an interim GM anymore. I agree with you on Gardy, it's his time. He will find a major league job if he wants one, but he's definitely not the guy you want managing the next wave of rookies as they come up.

 

As for Ryan, I'm not sure I agree... yet. Right now, this team needs a guy who can stock a farm system, and he does that very very well. While Smith gets some of that credit, Ryan has also done a pretty good job in that regard the last 2 years. If you think shedding him will suddenly improve our odds of winning in 2014, I think you're wrong. Where I do think his problem lies is what happens in 2015-2020 when he has a real good idea which of these young guys are studs and which need to be replaced. When those free agent signings need to be made, I'm not sure Ryan is the guy I want manning the helm.

[jokin]

As for Ryan, I'm not sure I agree... yet. Right now, this team needs a guy who can stock a farm system, and he does that very very well. While Smith gets some of that credit, Ryan has also done a pretty good job in that regard the last 2 years. If you think shedding him will suddenly improve our odds of winning in 2014, I think you're wrong. Where I do think his problem lies is what happens in 2015-2020 when he has a real good idea which of these young guys are studs and which need to be replaced. When those free agent signings need to be made, I'm not sure Ryan is the guy I want manning the helm.

 

Phil Mackey pointed out an inconvenient truth that counters our general perceptions, the last 2 years nothwithstanding, affecting both Smith and Ryan, at least when it comes to drafting pitchers:

 

Who are the last two Twins starting pitchers to be drafted in the June entry draft, climb the minor league ladder and contribute to the major league starting rotation?

 

Kyle Gibson, drafted in 2009, and...

I hope you're sitting down for this next one...

Jeff Manship, drafted in 2006.

 

 

No organization can survive that appalling level of futility.

 

More evidence for why payroll is the least of the Twins' concerns | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

[old nurse]

Phil Mackey pointed out an inconvenient truth that counters our general perceptions, the last 2 years nothwithstanding, affecting both Smith and Ryan, at least when it comes to drafting pitchers:

 

 

 

No organization can survive that appalling level of futility.

 

More evidence for why payroll is the least of the Twins' concerns | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

 

Try Cleveland. Look at their record for drafting starting pitching. Archer they traded, Guthrie back in 02, and traded. They seem to be doing OK at the moment

[LaBombo]

Try Cleveland. Look at their record for drafting starting pitching. Archer they traded, Guthrie back in 02, and traded. They seem to be doing OK at the moment

 

In order to get their three best starters, the Indians traded away Victor Martinez and Jake Westbrook in their primes, as well as Drew Pomeranz, a former top 50 prospect who may well turn out to be better than Gibson. Doesn't look like the Twins will be making any trades like that.

 

And although the Indians are playing well, they're 27th in quality starts and 23rd in whip, so it's not like they've assembled a lights-out staff, either.

[old nurse]

In order to get their three best starters, the Indians traded away Victor Martinez and Jake Westbrook in their primes, as well as Drew Pomeranz, a former top 50 prospect who may well turn out to be better than Gibson. Doesn't look like the Twins will be making any trades like that.

 

And although the Indians are playing well, they're 27th in quality starts and 23rd in whip, so it's not like they've assembled a lights-out staff, either.

 

The article was about drafting of pitchers and looked at the last 8 years. I went out to 10. Victor Martinez does not pitch. The comparison was about pitching. Westbrook was drafted 17 years ago by Colorado. The comment was for players drafted, not traded for. That they were traded for starting pitching is only important because of the futility of the Indian's drafting. Drew Pomeranz may have been a top 50 prospect but has not even shown himself to be an even mediocre mlb pitcher. The basis for the ranking would probably be due to his draft position.IIRC there was a thread last month on top 100 prospects washing out. Ranking beyond top 10 did not mean much. That he made it to the majors though means that in the last 10 years they drafted 3 pitchers that made it to the major leagues. Still less than what has made it up for the Twins. The earlier statement was no team could survive that sort of futility with their drafting. Despite the statistics you mentioned, the Indians are poised to make the playoffs. It would appear as though they are surviving their futile drafting. Do they get an asterisk if they make it because they were not in the AL East?

[Mike Sixel]

The Cleveland team won less than 70 games last year, and might make the wild card this year, and yet people keep saying the Twins should punt again next year.....I don't get it.

[jorgenswest]

The Indians story is a good one.

 

They rank below the Twins in payroll so they didn't get here by spending money. Their pitching has been middling. Their defense below average. The one piece that his working well is their hitting. Their wOBA ranks seventh led by Kipnis and Cabrera. They also have had spectacular performances from Raburn and Gomes.

 

They may make the playoffs but how does their performance this year guide the Twins?

 

Who will be the Twins Jan Gomes? Where can Twins find a guy to sign for 1 million that will put up a .979 OPS like Raburn? Who will be their Kazmir and Kluber? Those four guys were worth 10.6 WAR.

 

If the Twins can find four guys to come out of nowhere like those four, they can compete next year. How do they do that?

[Mike Sixel]

Actually, they signed a lot of FAs and traded a prospect for a pitcher, both things the Twins could do this offseason. The only reason the Twins payroll is close is Mauer......People really need to stop looking at the total payroll, and look at what the Twins are spending on 24 of the 25 people.

 

Sano, not out of nowhere, 2-4 wins better than Plouffe

Gibson not being AWFUL, 1-4 wins there

Ellsbury in CF, then LF when Buxton is up, 3-5 wins more than Hicks this year

Acria and Dozier good for the whole year, 2-5 wins

Sign one legit FA pitcher, 2-5 wins

 

Not really that hard, frankly, it does require money, and it requires three players to be better than this year (or at least good for longer).

[jorgenswest]

Actually, they signed a lot of FAs and traded a prospect for a pitcher, both things the Twins could do this offseason. The only reason the Twins payroll is close is Mauer......People really need to stop looking at the total payroll, and look at what the Twins are spending on 24 of the 25 people.

 

Sano, not out of nowhere, 2-4 wins better than Plouffe

Gibson not being AWFUL, 1-4 wins there

Ellsbury in CF, then LF when Buxton is up, 3-5 wins more than Hicks this year

Acria and Dozier good for the whole year, 2-5 wins

Sign one legit FA pitcher, 2-5 wins

 

Not really that hard, frankly, it does require money, and it requires three players to be better than this year (or at least good for longer).

 

This should probably be in a free agent targets thread. Do we have one yet?

Someone will likely offer Ellsbury around 7 years at about 150 million. The Twins will have to outbid enough so that he would be willing to come to a team far from contention.

 

Would it be wise to commit that many years to any outfielder in their 30s? This particular outfielder has only played two full seasons in his last four.

 

Boston has the resources to give him a big contract. He wants to stay. The only way he is available is if Boston doesn't think it is a good risk. If it isn't a good risk for a large market team like Boston, isn't it an even greater risk for a mid market team?

[nicksaviking]

Michael Bourn and Nick Swisher were bigger external free agent signings than anything the Twins have ever made. Though I did not like the players, I applauded Cleveland for the effort.

 

Regardless, shouldn't we be setting our sights a little higher than Cleveland's pitching staff? No one would expect that group to win a playoff series.

[LaBombo]

The earlier statement was no team could survive that sort of futility with their drafting. Despite the statistics you mentioned, the Indians are poised to make the playoffs. It would appear as though they are surviving their futile drafting. Do they get an asterisk if they make it because they were not in the AL East?

You're clinging to a single sentence of another post while ignoring its obvious point, which is that not drafting good pitchers is killing the Twins.

 

Instead you're going on about the Indians in an effort to make it seem as though the Indians being above .500 proves that the Twins can consistently field a competitive team without knowing the difference between an amateur draft pitching prospect and a King Charles spaniel.

 

Yes, the Indians have been able to stay above .500. Good for them. It doesn't help your argument, which is essentially the team version of saying a pitcher is good because of how many wins he has. The Indians have an average rotation that was assembled by trading away valuable assets. What good does that example do the Twins?

[Kwak]

You're clinging to a single sentence of another post while ignoring its obvious point, which is that not drafting good pitchers is killing the Twins.

 

Instead you're going on about the Indians in an effort to make it seem as though the Indians being above .500 proves that the Twins can consistently field a competitive team without knowing the difference between an amateur draft pitching prospect and a King Charles spaniel.

 

Yes, the Indians have been able to stay above .500. Good for them. It doesn't help your argument, which is essentially the team version of saying a pitcher is good because of how many wins he has. The Indians have an average rotation that was assembled by trading away valuable assets. What good does that example do the Twins?

 

I am not completely convinced that the problem is not drafting good pitchers. I see improperly developed pitchers being the real problem (of course better command, faster FB, and stronger character would be a big help!), but rather Twins pitchers don't have a "finish 'em off pitch"--which I believe is the real problem. The insistence on pitch-count, and ground-balls (PtoC) short-circuits the development. It can develop a fine minor league pitcher but experience has shown that major league hitters hit these guys regularly. The development system must be crafted to produce major league pitchers the type the get strike-outs and cause hitters to swing the bat earlier in the count especially on pitches on the fringe of the strikezone. Until then, we will repeats of Hendriks' Monday night "inning".

[Winston Smith]

Sense this is about Gardy's future I'll throw out a name in Mike Maddox as a manager. Tell him to fix our pitching top down. Do what he needs to and hire the best he can get.

Without fixing our pitching not much else will help, imo.

[old nurse]

You're clinging to a single sentence of another post while ignoring its obvious point, which is that not drafting good pitchers is killing the Twins.

 

Instead you're going on about the Indians in an effort to make it seem as though the Indians being above .500 proves that the Twins can consistently field a competitive team without knowing the difference between an amateur draft pitching prospect and a King Charles spaniel.

 

Yes, the Indians have been able to stay above .500. Good for them. It doesn't help your argument, which is essentially the team version of saying a pitcher is good because of how many wins he has. The Indians have an average rotation that was assembled by trading away valuable assets. What good does that example do the Twins?

 

Yes I focused on a single very false sentence. Welcome to TD where it is done all the time. My only point was the statement of futility is false. Oakland went from 2002-2009 with finding only 2 starting pitchers in the draft. Seattle went from 1999 to 2005 without having a drafted pitcher make it as a starter. They spent most of that time winning 90 games or more a season. It happens to teams. It doesn't do them any good down the road. The cycle of luck shifts, you get a couple of decent pitchers, that is how it works.

Cleveland traded Martinez as a sell high. They were not going to be winning before he became a free agent. Westbrook was going to be a free agent the fall after they traded him. Again, a sell high. Happens in baseball. Good for Cleveland. They went for prospects that were known. Oakland is praised for doing that type of thing.

[nicksaviking]

The cycle of luck shifts, you get a couple of decent pitchers, that is how it works.

 

I think the disagreement you are going to get is that luck should not be the overriding factor. Some teams seem more skilled at either scouting or development and if the Twins are not toward the top of the food chain in these areas it's time for a change.

 

 

 

Sense this is about Gardy's future I'll throw out a name in Mike Maddox as a manager. Tell him to fix our pitching top down. Do what he needs to and hire the best he can get.

Without fixing our pitching not much else will help, imo.

 

Back on track and nicely done. I'd be interested in Maddox simply on the hope that the pitching staff may improve, but he kind of strikes me as an old school manager who happens to have harder throwing pitchers. However maybe that idea only stems from the fact that he played in the 1980's, an enjoyable period of baseball but a completely different game that is no longer played by 29 of the league's 30 teams.

 

I'd like a new school manager in the Joe Madden mold, but as discussed elsewhere, that would probably require the removal of Terry Ryan.

[Thrylos]

Sense this is about Gardy's future I'll throw out a name in Mike Maddox as a manager. Tell him to fix our pitching top down. Do what he needs to and hire the best he can get.

Without fixing our pitching not much else will help, imo.

 

Agreed.

 

And with the Rangers due for wholesale changes in their manager and coaching staff, if they do not succeed in (and make) the postseason, he might be available.

 

But as a pitching coach. He is too quiet. And this team needs a manager who seems to care when they lose, instead of hanging himself by the armpits over the dugout rail, like the manager they have.

[old nurse]

I think the disagreement you are going to get is that luck should not be the overriding factor. Some teams seem more skilled at either scouting or development and if the Twins are not toward the top of the food chain in these areas it's time for a change.

.

 

It shouldn't be luck. Problem is you can't find several teams that consistently get starting pitchers through the draft.

[old nurse]

Agreed.

 

And with the Rangers due for wholesale changes in their manager and coaching staff, if they do not succeed in (and make) the postseason, he might be available.

 

But as a pitching coach. He is too quiet. And this team needs a manager who seems to care when they lose, instead of hanging himself by the armpits over the dugout rail, like the manager they have.

 

So he gets himself thrown out so he doesn't have to watch his team? I do believe he is eighth on the all time list. He throws players under the bus because he is happy they play poorly?

[jokin]

Yes I focused on a single very false sentence. Welcome to TD where it is done all the time. My only point was the statement of futility is false. Oakland went from 2002-2009 with finding only 2 starting pitchers in the draft. Seattle went from 1999 to 2005 without having a drafted pitcher make it as a starter. They spent most of that time winning 90 games or more a season. It happens to teams. It doesn't do them any good down the road. The cycle of luck shifts, you get a couple of decent pitchers, that is how it works.

Cleveland traded Martinez as a sell high. They were not going to be winning before he became a free agent. Westbrook was going to be a free agent the fall after they traded him. Again, a sell high. Happens in baseball. Good for Cleveland. They went for prospects that were known. Oakland is praised for doing that type of thing.

 

When will the Twins get a couple of those "sell highs"? I wish that that kind of "luck" would "cycle" around here more often than once a decade.

 

And why are you proud of taking a comment out of context, labeling it false based on your out of context opinion, because it's "done all the time on TD"?

[Thrylos]

So he gets himself thrown out so he doesn't have to watch his team? I do believe he is eighth on the all time list. He throws players under the bus because he is happy they play poorly?

 

Throwing (only some) players under the bus is a passive aggressive after the fact move. He does zip to change the momentum during the game, when it counts. Just hangs.

 

Thrown out of a game rarely accomplishes anything. Getting aggressive on the base paths, getting in the minds of opposing pitchers, retaliating for hit batsmen and dirty plays, being energetic and interacting with his players during the game, treating everyone the same etc., does.

[old nurse]

When will the Twins get a couple of those "sell highs"? I wish that that kind of "luck" would "cycle" around here more often than once a decade.

 

And why are you proud of taking a comment out of context, labeling it false based on your out of context opinion, because it's "done all the time on TD"?

 

So now it becomes taken out of context? A one line sentence about an article on the Twins poor drafting with no further insight attached to it and I point out how it is wrong by a team that is surviving well with poor pitching. Taken out of context? LOL. LaBobo attacked saying that I just picked on one sentence. It is done all the time here. It is not a "proud of" thing. It is just ironic that someone would choose that way to attack someone when single sentences are attacked all the time when the rest of the concept is ignored. I guess I will have to PM you the next time you do it.

The Twins had a sell high situation a few years ago. They were called Matt Garza, Johan Santana, and Michael Cuddyer. When they only pick up poor player from your sell highs, you have nothing.