Masahiro Tanaka

[Willihammer]

I look at the Darvish posting differently. IMO one team was in the ballpark in their valuation (Texas) and everyone else was way off

[Mike Sixel]

I look at the Darvish posting differently. IMO one team was in the ballpark in their valuation (Texas) and everyone else was way off

 

I agree with this 100%, he's well worth what they are/will pay him. Everyone else was wrong.

[kab21]

Where are you guys getting this 100+ M number from? I haven't read anything that suggests that. History defiantly doesn't. Did I miss something? (Sure wouldn't be the first time I did)

 

There is some crazy money getting thrown around at int'l FA's and there have been a lot of successes lately. If you add in the extra money that everyone is getting then almost every team (except the Marlins) is going to have money to spend this offseason. He shouldn't but I think he will get close to Darvish and the Twins won't be that team but they will act shocked at the winning bid number.

[Mike Sixel]

There is some crazy money getting thrown around at int'l FA's and there have been a lot of successes lately. If you add in the extra money that everyone is getting then almost every team (except the Marlins) is going to have money to spend this offseason. He shouldn't but I think he will get close to Darvish and the Twins won't be that team but they will act shocked at the winning bid number.

 

And the media will back them up in that shock, frankly I'm done with the local media's kid glove treatment of the team, just cancelled my STRIB membership (first time I have not gotten that paper when I lived in MN, since I was born.....).

[big dog]

Lose their job? They secured an outstanding pitcher for a good price.

 

Single-bid sealed envelope auctions are a complete crapshoot, especially when they happen infrequently and the quality of the good being auctioned varies dramatically. It would be pretty tough to fire someone for winning one, especially when it worked out the way it did.

 

Submitting a bid that was one-third of the winning bid, which still turned out to be a bargain, would be a much better way to get fired, I would think.

[cmb0252]

There is some crazy money getting thrown around at int'l FA's and there have been a lot of successes lately. If you add in the extra money that everyone is getting then almost every team (except the Marlins) is going to have money to spend this offseason. He shouldn't but I think he will get close to Darvish and the Twins won't be that team but they will act shocked at the winning bid number.

 

I just don't see it. I think the highest bid will be in the $35-40 range with a 6 year contract that will be close to the bid number. Darvish was hyped for 2 years before being posted while, reportedly, only two teams have sent top brass to see him. I guess only time will tell who is right.

[S.]

I was really impressed by what I saw with him. His delivery is silky smooth, he has a high release point, and hides the ball extremely well. His breaking stuff is fairly deceptive too.

Agreed fully. The consistency and ease of his delivery was probably the first thing to really jump out at me when watching footage of him (well, maybe after seeing that filthy split). As I've said previously, I'm no pro when it comes to analyzing pitcher's mechanics, but his delivery looked damn near perfect to my untrained eye. And as you said, he hides the ball very well, which is definitely making his already good "junk" pitches even better and is a very big plus in my book when you're looking at pitchers who aren't going to blow people away with 100mph fastballs. Obviously there is an overall higher caliber of hitters in MLB than NPB, but I think he still has plenty of ability to make batters look foolish and induce a lot of ground balls over here with the combination of his deception, his incredible split and his plus slider.

 

I'm not gonna sit here and proclaim he's some guaranteed ace, or even a guaranteed 2 or 3, but I feel pretty comfortable saying he has the stuff to be the ace of the Twin's staff by a huge margin, barring any other surprising FA signings, trades, or a miraculous transformation of Kevin Correia into Clayton Kershaw when the clock strikes 2014.

[Badsmerf]

And the media will back them up in that shock, frankly I'm done with the local media's kid glove treatment of the team, just cancelled my STRIB membership (first time I have not gotten that paper when I lived in MN, since I was born.....).

A lot of us have been calling the local media the "Twins media machine" for years. They put out what the Twins want them do. The Twins intentionally leak stories so the fanbase takes their side and hid others that don't favor them so much. There are plenty of examples to draw from, so your assumption is pretty spot on. Local sports coverage has been pretty stale for a long time. Berardino has done a better job than I've seen in a long time though. He's the first that I can actually read without throwing up in my mouth.

[howieramone1406390264]

A lot of us have been calling the local media the "Twins media machine" for years. They put out what the Twins want them do. The Twins intentionally leak stories so the fanbase takes their side and hid others that don't favor them so much. There are plenty of examples to draw from, so your assumption is pretty spot on. Local sports coverage has been pretty stale for a long time. Berardino has done a better job than I've seen in a long time though. He's the first that I can actually read without throwing up in my mouth.

 

We should get back to Tanaka, but I don't believe it's possible for the media to brainwash millions of loyal and knowledgeable Twins fans.

[Mike Sixel]

We should get back to Tanaka, but I don't believe it's possible for the media to brainwash millions of loyal and knowledgeable Twins fans.

 

I 100% believe the media is in the brainwashing business....I am surprised that people don't think that.

[abnormal_1]

So back to Tanaka....

 

Bottom line is that over last couple years the twins have cut payroll and saved. I think legitimately so as spending more the last couple years would not have been the answer...at best delivered mediocrity.

 

The top line free agents pitchers weren't coming here (Zach Gereineke) they can get overpaid and play for contenders.

 

But...with money saved and now the salary shed with Morneau being traded (Go Pirates!), Blackburn coming off the books, it is time to go after Tanaka.

 

With the posting process once you win that you have a captive negotiation. If the Twins can get a legitimate number 2 starter who is 24 years old for a 90-100million composite over the next 6 years they need to do so.

 

This is the number one hole at the moment and would provide the right now building block

 

There are good things coming through the farm system...It just the pitching due to injury (Meyer) and needing more refinement (May) are at best mid season 2014 and more likely 2015.

 

Once the farm system pipeline starts delivering it truly looks like the Twins are positioned for a 8-10 year run. Sure be nice to add another trophy to the champions club!

[jorgenswest]

What posting fee would you expect of the Twins? It is easy to take a position after the fact tht the Twins should have gone higher? The Twins don't luxury of knowing the winning bid.

 

So should the Twins put all of their 2014 eggs in the Tanaka basket? Would a post of 30 million and salary next year of 10 million be enough? The contract will run several more years but the burden on 2014 would be the most difficult.

 

That's my bid. 40 million on the books for next year. Go young for 2014. Add more in 2015 when the posting fee burden is gone.

 

If another team goes higher I have no complaints.

[howieramone1406390264]

What posting fee would you expect of the Twins? It is easy to take a position after the fact tht the Twins should have gone higher? The Twins don't luxury of knowing the winning bid.

 

So should the Twins put all of their 2014 eggs in the Tanaka basket? Would a post of 30 million and salary next year of 10 million be enough? The contract will run several more years but the burden on 2014 would be the most difficult.

 

That's my bid. 40 million on the books for next year. Go young for 2014. Add more in 2015 when the posting fee burden is gone.

 

If another team goes higher I have no complaints.

 

Assuming Tanaka checks out with our scouts, I'm on record for a 50M posting fee without batting an eye for exactly the same reasons abnormal_1 just pointed out. I'm hoping this where we take our shot.

[jorgenswest]

Assuming Tanaka checks out with our scouts, I'm on record for a 50M posting fee without batting an eye for exactly the same reasons abnormal_1 just pointed out. I'm hoping this where we take our shot.

 

So if he doesn't check out, you are OK with the Twins not bidding.

[howieramone1406390264]

So if he doesn't check out, you are OK with the Twins not bidding.

 

Always. I have complete faith in our scouts. I fully understand they are human and will make mistakes. If they say go, I would break the bank. If they decide this isn't the one, then we go on to the next one. As a side note, I read where we spotted Buxton 3 years prior to drafting him. I also read we saw every pitch Stewart made for the past 2 years. If Jim Callis comes to TD to visit, we should drag it out of him which SS we covet.

[jorgenswest]

Always. I have complete faith in our scouts. I fully understand they are human and will make mistakes. If they say go, I would break the bank. If they decide this isn't the one, then we go on to the next one. As a side note, I read where we spotted Buxton 3 years prior to drafting him. I also read we saw every pitch Stewart made for the past 2 years. If Jim Callis comes to TD to visit, we should drag it out of him which SS we covet.

 

I am with you on the scouts. However, we will never really know what the scouts reported to Ryan.

 

I do feel that the Twins have 40 million of space in the budget before they are really stretched beyond their market and revenues. I would direct all of that towards Tanaka or front loading bonus in an Abreau contract.

 

They need to add that one key piece for 2014 and the future with a greater burden next year and flexibility to add in future years. It won't be near enough for 2014, but will show commitment towards rebuilding a winning team.

 

I will never know what the scouts report. Short of that, I expect the biggest play they can make. To me, that is 40 million for 2014 split between posting fee (30 million) and year one salary (10 million).

[diehardtwinsfan]

So if he doesn't check out, you are OK with the Twins not bidding.

 

I would personally hope they just bid less. Regardless of whether he checks out or not, he has upside. That's pretty clear. If they look at him and see back of the rotation arm, you still bid, but not as much...

 

 

Though with the Twins, that one might get a higher bid (that was a joke BTW).

[kab21]

I just don't see it. I think the highest bid will be in the $35-40 range with a 6 year contract that will be close to the bid number. Darvish was hyped for 2 years before being posted while, reportedly, only two teams have sent top brass to see him. I guess only time will tell who is right.

 

You continue to base most of your analysis on Darvish vs Tanaka and very little on how teams have a stupid amount of money to spend this year. Gonzalez had a 5/60 deal or something like that in place until he failed a physical. Money is just getting tossed around since last winter.

 

If I'm the Twins then I bid 40ish M and try to sign him for 40-50M. This of course depends on the Twins liking what they see. If not Tanaka then I go after Lincecum or either of the two cuban hitters (Abreu will get a ton of money though).

[ericchri]

You continue to base most of your analysis on Darvish vs Tanaka and very little on how teams have a stupid amount of money to spend this year. Gonzalez had a 5/60 deal or something like that in place until he failed a physical. Money is just getting tossed around since last winter.

 

If I'm the Twins then I bid 40ish M and try to sign him for 40-50M. This of course depends on the Twins liking what they see. If not Tanaka then I go after Lincecum or either of the two cuban hitters (Abreu will get a ton of money though).

 

I agree, I think the Darvish bid actually makes it more likely Tanaka gets a huge bid, maybe even something similar. Texas massively outbid everyone else, supposedly, but the fact that they did means any future GM's are going to have that in the back of their mind for someone like Tanaka. You have to decide between bidding what you think he's worth as opposed to bidding what you think it'll take to guarantee you win the bid, and the two are likely not to be close.

[cmb0252]

You continue to base most of your analysis on Darvish vs Tanaka and very little on how teams have a stupid amount of money to spend this year. Gonzalez had a 5/60 deal or something like that in place until he failed a physical. Money is just getting tossed around since last winter.

 

If I'm the Twins then I bid 40ish M and try to sign him for 40-50M. This of course depends on the Twins liking what they see. If not Tanaka then I go after Lincecum or either of the two cuban hitters (Abreu will get a ton of money though).

 

Actually I'm coming up with my numbers looking at Darvish/Dice-K (100M+) as the high end while taking into account Ryu (62M) as the low end. Ryu didn't go for some insane number last year even though teams had a stupid amount of money. While Tanaka is a better prospect than Ryu I don't I don't see him being 40+M better than him.

 

In the end we are just arguing over semantics because your bid number is about what I would expect a team to offer. 40ish give or take.

[Oxtung]

I am with you on the scouts. However, we will never really know what the scouts reported to Ryan.

 

I think it's safe to say the Twins' scouts like him since the members of the FO have flown over to see him pitch personally.

 

 

When is Tanaka expected to be posted?

[nicksaviking]

I think it's safe to say the Twins' scouts like him since the members of the FO have flown over to see him pitch personally.

 

 

When is Tanaka expected to be posted?

 

They probably liked his middling 7.7 K/9, but since the reports of multiple team's scouts showing up to watch, I think he's been striking out more guys, that may have turned the Twins scouts off.

[kab21]

Actually I'm coming up with my numbers looking at Darvish/Dice-K (100M+) as the high end while taking into account Ryu (62M) as the low end. Ryu didn't go for some insane number last year even though teams had a stupid amount of money. While Tanaka is a better prospect than Ryu I don't I don't see him being 40+M better than him.

 

In the end we are just arguing over semantics because your bid number is about what I would expect a team to offer. 40ish give or take.

 

A) Ryu is further proof of the stupid money that teams are throwing around (especially the Dodgers). I think Ryu was expected to be a 30M or so guy for the posting fee and FA contract. He got double that.

 

That's the most I would bid but I also don't think that is going to win the bid.

[nicksaviking]

It is reported that there may be a change to posting the Japanese players, possibly starting in November. The posting Japanese team may now be able to choose three MLB bidders with the player having the final say where he goes.

 

I can't see this being good new for the Twins. With the current (but totally rediculous) system, any team, even the Twins could blow all the other teams out of the water with a bid should they choose, and then have exclusive negotiating rights. If this system happens, even if the Twins came in with the high posting fee, they'll still have to contend with the contract offers of two other clubs. I'd imagine the Twins fear of commitment (see lack of years) and the lure of a large market would take the Twins out of the running for any big names.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Wouldn't it be a fun shock if the Twins dropped a $50mm big of this kid?

 

It would fit the "any current year price" comment from Jim Pohlad. And the contract wouldn't need to be 7-8 years, right?

[Badsmerf]

It is reported that there may be a change to posting the Japanese players, possibly starting in November. The posting Japanese team may now be able to choose three MLB bidders with the player having the final say where he goes.

 

I can't see this being good new for the Twins. With the current (but totally rediculous) system, any team, even the Twins could blow all the other teams out of the water with a bid should they choose, and then have exclusive negotiating rights. If this system happens, even if the Twins came in with the high posting fee, they'll still have to contend with the contract offers of two other clubs. I'd imagine the Twins fear of commitment (see lack of years) and the lure of a large market would take the Twins out of the running for any big names.

I have a hard time believing that would fly with the MLB. They have taken some pretty drastic measures to try and level the playing field with respect to competitiveness. A system like that would make it completely unfair as the Japanese teams know which teams have more money.

[old nurse]

It is reported that there may be a change to posting the Japanese players, possibly starting in November. The posting Japanese team may now be able to choose three MLB bidders with the player having the final say where he goes.

 

I can't see this being good new for the Twins. With the current (but totally rediculous) system, any team, even the Twins could blow all the other teams out of the water with a bid should they choose, and then have exclusive negotiating rights. If this system happens, even if the Twins came in with the high posting fee, they'll still have to contend with the contract offers of two other clubs. I'd imagine the Twins fear of commitment (see lack of years) and the lure of a large market would take the Twins out of the running for any big names.

 

NPB would never allow it. It would cut the posting fee dramatically as you would only have to try for top 3. It would also then encourage players to try to leave Japan as they could get mlb to bid for their services, make more money than in Japan, and drain Japan's talent pool. The players and agents would love it. The teams lose. The teams control the process.

[cmathewson]

Glad this thread didn't devolve into "the Twins will never sign _____________ because they are too cheap". Though I don't think it's likely, if it doesn't happen, the reason is as much about the insane spending by other teams as the cheapness of the Twins. I'm not averse to overspending here and there to improve the team. And my sense is neither is Jim Pohlad (Ryan on the other hand...). But you have to pick and choose carefully lest you run out of cash.

 

The Twins are not in danger of running out of cash anytime soon. But if, for example, they had signed the two Cubans and this Japanese player, there wouldn't be much left for filler. I'd love to see them sign one of them though. Of the three, Tanaka was my top choice, both because of need and projectability.

[Mike Sixel]

I don't agree they can't get filler, but even if that is true, I'd rather they spend money on elite players and worry about filler later.

[Monkeypaws]

If the Twins were to win one of these bids, now would be the time. They have the cash, and it would be good for the team obviously, but would also give them some solid PR heading into All-Star mania.