Article: Why the Twins Will Spend This Offseason

[ashbury]

I instinctively distrust quotes in a vacuum. I want to know the question that was asked, I want to know what words sandwiched the quote in question. I googled the quoted line mentioned in Phil Miller's column (linked above), and I didn't find what I wanted - just lots of Twitter references getting passed back and forth. So I looked around for the interview, and found an audio feed. I am very bad at transcribing, so I burned up probably an hour to finally come up with the following.

 

Starting at 36:25 on:

9/19 HR3 - Limegrover/Terry Ryan

 

Paul Allen: Terry, pitching and free agency, to get serious here, uh, it's my belief you will have requisite money to spend on a free agent pitcher if indeed you identify one, but there will be a lot of competition for these pitchers. Is that accurate?

 

Terry Ryan: Yes, there's no doubt, and if we're gonna do anything here and succeed in the near AND long term, Paul, it's probably not gonna be via free agency, it's gonna be drafting, and international acquisitions, and trades and so forth. Very rarely do you end up succeeding BECAUSE of free agency. Now, when you get to a point when you're very competitive, and you're looking World Series area, then you go out and you might end up doing something of that nature. But most clubs, and we're one of them, you're not gonna probably get it done via the free agent route. You certainly can complement your roster. ...

 

Allen: Yep.

 

Ryan: ... And there will be people out there, we'll be aggressively pursuing. There's no doubt, we need to go that path on occasion. But for long term success, we're gonna have to have the Sanos, and the Rosarios, and the Alex Meyers, and Trevor Mays, and those types of guys come through, and then all of a sudden you've got an opportunity to add a free agent then you go do it.

 

My take: Miller in his column characterized the discussion as a quick fix for 2014. I agree it weighs against Nick's article in this thread. To extrapolate beyond that and say Ryan won't ever acquire talent via free agency, in my view, is contradicted by Ryan's words.

[TheLeviathan]

My take: Miller in his column characterized the discussion as a quick fix for 2014. I agree it weighs against Nick's article in this thread. To extrapolate beyond that and say Ryan won't ever acquire talent via free agency, in my view, is contradicted by Ryan's words.

 

I wouldn't go so far as to say contradicted - the contradiction here is in his statements about "longterm" and the idea that you'd add when "looking at the World Series". I think, to be fair to Ryan here, he's talking about using FA to go from non-contender to contender. I think we all agree FA isn't going to be effective for that. We're all talking about complements, so this is a pretty classic Twins move to paint the question in the extreme rather than a more sensible interpretation.

 

No one wants them to build a WS contender out of FA, but if you are waiting for that magic moment to add a FA - I worry about that mentality. If 2015 or 2016 are legit targets to start contending, there is no reason not to add talent now. It would be foolish not to build a team in anticipation of those players developing well, not wait until you see the results.

 

To me this just sounds like the same Ryan refrain. They will aggressively pursue players insofar as they are willing to accept contracts less than 4 years in length and the dollar cap he feels comfortable with. Then, he will bow out as soon as the price tag gets past his very meager standards for acceptable length and total dollars - a totally forseeable and preventable problem.

[ashbury]

To me this just sounds like the same Ryan refrain.

 

Of course. He's been very consistent. To take the single sentence Miller chose, and decide that this has somehow ripped the lid off of Terry Ryan's master plan to keep the Twins at the bottom of the standings, or whatever is meant by "damning" and "kill any lingering optimism by anyone rational", is just not supported by the interview. I don't think that was even what Miller was suggesting.

 

And to insist that Ryan is waiting for a mythical "magical moment" is plain insulting, when he lays out clearly what he is waiting for. There's no purpose to calling him a liar.

[TheLeviathan]

or whatever is meant by "damning" and "kill any lingering optimism by anyone rational", is just not supported by the interview. I don't think that was even what Miller was suggesting.

 

That quote and what you posted absolutely destroys all the hope Nick Nelson tries to sell in this article. It demolishes any chance we will see significant improvement on this roster via FA this offseason. Miller is suggesting we won't see significant steps forward in 2014 either - thus damning and killing optimism for next year seems mighty fitting. Nothing about what you posted changes that.

 

And to insist that Ryan is waiting for a mythical "magical moment" is plain insulting, when he lays out clearly what he is waiting for. There's no purpose to calling him a liar.

The offseason is an awfully difficult time to tell if you are WS caliber. Hell, some teams don't even know they're WS caliber in July much less January. Waiting for the right offseason, with the right available players, with the right amount of available money, with the right level of talent to contend - is a recipe for doing nothing. There is nothing insulting about that, just realistic.

[Shane Wahl]

The last remaining defenders of Terry Ryan should come and try to defend this. If the Twins truly wait on 5 pitching prospects to arrive and be successful, then the wait could be over no sooner than 2016 (Berrios and Stewart--the latter MAYBE).

 

Maybe TR means that they just aren't going to become a contender solely through FA. Even that is a fairly dubious claim. I don't see how this rules out one FA SP signing that could make an impact, but this is fairly damning.

 

Again, signing FA doesn't mean that the rebuild has to BE WITH THEM. Free agents are assets to use at one's disposal. What it comes down to is money from ownership and/or a strange Ryan philosophy of stubbornness about growing from within and nothing more. Both of these possibilities are unacceptable.

[ashbury]

Waiting for the right offseason, with the right available players, with the right amount of available money, with the right level of talent to contend - is a recipe for doing nothing. There is nothing insulting about that, just realistic.

 

Backpedal all you want, that isn't what you said:

 

This is, as I've been saying for awhile, a matter of principle for Ryan. Never about timing.

 

Now, when faced with the actual full quote, which is all *about* timing, what is left looks like error on somebody's part. Ryan mis-spoke, Ryan is lying, you didn't have all the facts - take your pick.

 

The other message is (and now I'm donning my Moderator's hat), why not dial down the rhetoric in the first place, when it's based on an isolated quote that happened to coincide with your larger view of things? This is what we keep asking in the Comments policy; don't insist that "anyone rational" agree with your view. Glunn already asked posters to not be inflammatory earlier in this thread. This is not Rube Chat^TM.

[old nurse]

Except he just said he won't. Pretty clearly and without much wiggle room to spin it otherwise. A quote like this is as clear and as concise as you will ever hear from an executive of a sports team and it completely undercuts any optimism about the offseason.

 

To suggest otherwise is a really disingenuous re-reading of the statement he made.

 

From the story

 

Ryan figures to do some shopping, but he is unlikely to land a star.

 

 

So the reporter is talking out of an orfice usually covered by underwear?

 

"If we’re going to do anything here [to] succeed in the near and long-term, it’s probably not going to be in free agency.” Is a very accurate statement about most of the teams in baseball. You can add pieces to make your team better. Rarely does your team get the heart and soul through free agency.

[TheLeviathan]

This is, as I've been saying for awhile, a matter of principle for Ryan. Never about timing.

 

Let me help you understand my points, maybe I was unclear.

 

Ryan clearly is stating not to look for any significant additions this offseason. He's also contradictory about the long-term vs. World Series move points. But my two points are separate. For one, Ryan seems to be suggesting that when this unclear time of being "World Series ready" occurs then he will make a move. But the number of circumstances that have to align for this to happen makes it dubious if it ever happens, much less that we might make a move if it does. You can be hopeful that he means what he says about "World Series ready", but there are very legitimate reasons to doubt this scenario ever happens.

 

My point you quoted and then conflated with this one is my personal viewpoint. I keep a fool's hope that we'll eventually do something, but the logical part of me says that Ryan has very strong principles about what he will and will not do in regards to contracts. I think those principles are very firm and will not budge even in some future scenario where the rubber meets the road.

[PseudoSABR]

Ryan: ... And there will be people out there, we'll be aggressively pursuing.

This quote seems to suggest that Ryan will aggressively pursue targeted free agents; which seems to support Nick's original article.

[ThePuck]

This quote seems to suggest that Ryan will aggressively pursue targeted free agents; which seems to support Nick's original article.

 

Targeting the cheapest possible targets for the shortest amount of time to fill vacant holes...or, basically, using the same failed strategy as last year. I'm waiting for him to again tell us that he'll do everything he can to significantly improve the rotation.

[Guest USAFChief]

I guess we'll need to wait for the offseason to see how it plays out.

 

But as I read the article, I'm not very hopeful that the Twins will make any significant effort to improve the 2014 team. Of course, I felt that way prior to the article, so maybe that's coloring my interpretation.

[LastOnePicked]

"No one wants them to build a WS contender out of FA"

 

I might be alone, but I'd be 100% okay with this. It would signal at least some commitment to success from ownership. But, of course, it won't happen, and it probably IS better to build a deeper, longer-term contender. I don't have the faith that we have the leadership to do that, but I guess it's good that a few others do.

 

To me, the larger issue is the club's myopic vision and static approach. Ryan's quote speaks to his belief that there's ONE right way to do build a contender, and for some reason, he still seems to think he knows what that way is. Evidence continues to point to the contrary.

 

Personally, and this probably belongs on another thread, but I'd rather the team throw $30-$40 million at signing up some of the Cardinals / Rays / A's pitching scouts and coaching talent. Overpay for good infrastructure, I say.

[ashbury]

Targeting the cheapest possible targets for the shortest amount of time to fill vacant holes...or, basically, using the same failed strategy as last year. I'm waiting for him to again tell us that he'll do everything he can to significantly improve the rotation.

 

Left unexplained even in the longer quote, and I wish the interviewer Paul Allen had followed up to ask for clarification, was the disarmingly fuzzy term "free agent". Terry Ryan probably would say he went out and got two free agent starting pitchers in Correia and Pelfrey. Is that what he means when he said "And there will be people out there, we'll be aggressively pursuing"? Because to me that level of acquisition wouldn't be very acceptable toward improving the 40-man roster. I expected more last off-season.

[ashbury]

You can be hopeful that he means what he says about "World Series ready"

 

No. My lingering optimism was killed earlier today by my rationality after reading your post.

[TheLeviathan]

No. My lingering optimism was killed earlier today by my rationality after reading your post.

 

Then that makes two of us, . I don't like feeling hopeless, but I don't see any other way to feel after reading that comment. Even in context.

[Major League Ready]

INo one wants them to build a WS contender out of FA, but if you are waiting for that magic moment to add a FA - I worry about that mentality. If 2015 or 2016 are legit targets to start contending, there is no reason not to add talent now. It would be foolish not to build a team in anticipation of those players developing well, not wait until you see the results.

 

To me this just sounds like the same Ryan refrain. They will aggressively pursue players insofar as they are willing to accept contracts less than 4 years in length and the dollar cap he feels comfortable with. Then, he will bow out as soon as the price tag gets past his very meager standards for acceptable length and total dollars - a totally forseeable and preventable problem.

 

It seems highly unlikely the young core, most of whom are not even here yet, is going to make this team world series compeitors in 2015. Sano will likely be here mid 2014 and Buxton 2015. Rosario might be here sometime next season. Meyer is likely mid 2014 or start of 2015. Now, think about how long it took KC's young core to be ready to compete. Even if all goes well, 2016 is the very earliest the young core is going to compete.

 

The #1 goal for top FA players and their agents is to get a number years where the last couple of years the player is no longer playing at a "top" level. This is no secret. That type of contract makes it impossible to move the player and their huge contract will severly impede any middle of the pack (in terms of revenue) team in going out and adding other top FAs until that contact has expired. History is quite clear in terms of the risk associated with FA SPs across the entire term of the agreement and espeically the last couple years.

 

CC Sabathia is a great example. He opted out of his long-term deal so that he could stretch the number of years out long after the point where he was a top of the rotation pitcher. His decline appears to be here and quite rapid. His ERA this year is 4.78 and 6.08 after the all-star break. I think he is signed through 2017. How would you like to have that anchor when the upcomming Twins core is entering their prime?

 

In my opinion, it would in fact be foolish to add talent in anticipation of the Buxton/Sano and others. It is highly probably the players getting 5-6 year deals will have declined substantially by the time our core has developed. This would be a very good way to lose a couple years where the could have had FA dollars to fill-out a compeitive roster. They do however have a window where they could spend significant dollars on 2-3 or even a 4 year contract for the right guy.

[TheLeviathan]

In my opinion, it would in fact be foolish to take on 5+ year contracts right now. It is highly probably the players getting 5-6 year deals will have declined by the time our core has developed. This would be a very good way to lose a couple years where the could have had FA dollars to fill-out a compeitive roster. They do however have a window where they could spend significant dollars on 2-3 or even a 4 year contract for the right guy.

 

With the extra money I think we will have to go 4+. The contracts are going to be higher IMO. With our situation we can afford it 5+. Not to mention, if you wait two years to make significant adds then your contracts butt heads with the end of key arb years from Sano, Arcia, etc. There will be negatives any way you cut it.

[Major League Ready]

With the extra money I think we will have to go 4+. The contracts are going to be higher IMO. With our situation we can afford it 5+. Not to mention, if you wait two years to make significant adds then your contracts butt heads with the end of key arb years from Sano, Arcia, etc. There will be negatives any way you cut it.

 

Well, yes, the TV money is going to mean more spending. It really could not be a worse year to play in free agency. The question is how exactly it will impact the spending or more to the point, the contract terms. I am wondering if teams might start to say it is not worth it to extends these elite players out. New York is praying they can get out of the final years of A-Rods, deal. Sabathia's deal looks like it could be a real clunker for the next 4 years. The Pujlos contract could end up being an absolute disaster. Hamilton's deal is going to be a real stinker unless he rebounds in a big way. And, of course, there are many other examples over the past decade.

 

We might actually see this trend meet some resistance. That's a BIG might but the failures of LA, Toronto, and a number of specific contracts might finally start to make GMs really reluctant when the term takes players well past their prime. Ironically, that might actually be bad for us because the top markets would not be carrying so much dead weight in the future.

[TheLeviathan]

All good points. I'm personally not advocating for mega 7 year deals, but I do think there is a happy medium that I am worried the Twins aren't considering that would still drastically improve the club.

 

At the end of the day if you want to find reasons not to utilize FA there will always be some but that shouldn't rule out using it for significant additions.

[Oldgoat_MN]

The 2006 season ended with the Twins being swept from the post-season by the Oakland A's. The Twins had won their division, a 23 year old kid named Joe Mauer had just won the AL batting title and Justin Morneau had just been crowned the AL MVP.

 

It was also the last year of Brad Radke's career. To compete again the Twins would have to replace Radke. And who did Terry Ryan go out and sign to make this Division Champion even better, perhaps a World Series competitor?

 

Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson.

 

I understand you want to be optimistic, but some of us have watched TR too long to believe anything useful is at all likely.

Could happen, but not likely.

[ThePuck]

The 2006 season ended with the Twins being swept from the post-season by the Oakland A's. The Twins had won their division, a 23 year old kid named Joe Mauer had just won the AL batting title and Justin Morneau had just been crowned the AL MVP.

 

 

We also had the Cy Young winner, a top 3 closer, a gold glove 30 HR hitting CF, and a 20+ HR, 100 RBI RF....and, like you said, Ryan did absolutely nothing to try and get the team over the hump. I believe the goal has been, for a long time now, to try and build a competitive team within the division, with zero concern about building a team that could actually win the W Series.

[Oldgoat_MN]

We also had the Cy Young winner, a top 3 closer, a gold glove 30 HR hitting CF, and a 20+ HR, 100 RBI RF....and, like you said, Ryan did absolutely nothing to try and get the team over the hump. I believe the goal has been, for a long time now, to try and build a competitive team within the division, with zero concern about building a team that could actually win the W Series.

 

Unfortunately I believe you are right.

 

It was that lack of effort, or concern for the Twins chances, that led Johan and Torii to suggest that the future was always down the road, that the Twins would not make the effort to really lock anything up.

 

Ryan must have thought the Division Championship was the Promised Land. He certainly did nothing to help the club.

 

And they were so close to being a really great team!

[Major League Ready]

The 2006 season ended with the Twins being swept from the post-season by the Oakland A's. The Twins had won their division, a 23 year old kid named Joe Mauer had just won the AL batting title and Justin Morneau had just been crowned the AL MVP.

 

It was also the last year of Brad Radke's career. To compete again the Twins would have to replace Radke. And who did Terry Ryan go out and sign to make this Division Champion even better, perhaps a World Series competitor?

 

Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson.

 

I understand you want to be optimistic, but some of us have watched TR too long to believe anything useful is at all likely.

Could happen, but not likely.

 

You might be right but circumstances (revenue and other) have changed somewhat substantially. You and others are basing your conclusion on actions that took place when the Twins had just slightly more revenue than Kansas City and the other bottom revenue teams. I have nott seen enough post Target Field to assume anything. The actions mentioned were basically consistent with all of the other teams in a similar revenue position.

 

The only intellectually fair or honest assumptions you can make now would be based on actions since revenues increased which there have been few. Personally, I will wait to see what they do in rebuilding this team until I judge if their philosophical changes matched the increase in revenue. I don’t expect Grienke. I just want to see a change that matches the revenue increase, if that makes sense. What would be fair would be to expect action that reflected a team that has more revenue than those very bottom teams but still significantly less than the top revenue teams. They did sign Mauer to an 8 year $23M/yr contract. That NEVER would have happened in the dome days.

 

They did not resign 2 noteworthy free agents, Nathan and Cuddy. You can’t hardly blame them for Nathan given the circumstances. (age/Tommy John/money and the fact they replaced him for a fraction of the money. I loved Cuddy but you can’t complain the FO does not know how or refuses to rebuild and then complain about letting Cuddy and Kubel go. They got Berios and replaced Cuddy with Willingham who outplayed him last year. Of course, Cuddy is killing it this year but that move was consistent with rebuilding.

[BoBo71]

Many consider the Twins returning to be a proven contender as practically a done deal, the only questions being when, and how far will this rebuild take us. Are we going dominate the Central as we have in the past or with the help of the Gods of Baseball will we win another World Series title?

 

There is every appearance of 2 strong drafts in a row, and we are currently earning another high pick in what is being touted as a deep draft. Our efforts in the International market have given us Arcia, Pinto, and Sano, with every indication that the pipeline will continue.

 

I do believe Ryan will sign a high-profile name, but I don't see any real urgency until the winter of 2014/2015. No doubt they will be continuously looking, as always, between now and then. They will continue to make Butera and Morneau type trades, though far from sexy, will do a great deal towards shaping the team and adding the final pieces.

 

While many may consider The Twin's Way to be extremely risk-adverse, I believe it to be cold, calm, and calculated.

 

This sounds like a comment from the Twins F.O. What's so cold and calculated about their approach? This is a F.O. that essentially said they thought this team could compete in 2013. This is a tight-fisted GM that has posted 10 losing seasons in his 16 on the job, and who has personally posted three straight losing seasons.

 

The approach doesn't make sense anymore. The game has changed, and TR has not changed with it. Good professional organizations (like the Cardinals, Patriots, Spurs, Red Wings, etc.) do indeed use draft and develop as a basis for their roster compilation. But those organizations also effectively mix in trading for big league talent and the signing of able free agents.

 

I'm sorry, but your comment reads more like someone that has drank too much of the Twins' Koolaid than someone who is basing his opinions on the evidence at hand. Perhaps Terry Ryan's time has come and gone as a GM? Happens every day in sports. Why not here? Why not him? Why not now? Is it impossible to believe that he's way past HIS prime??? That his notions are tired and old and even apathetic at this point?

 

This team will not move forward unless Terry Ryan is willing to spend on pitching, either via free agent dollars or by way of blue chip prospects. THAT is what seems so obvious here.