Article: Why the Twins Will Spend This Offseason

[diehardtwinsfan]

Are you willing to trade some great propsects for great, proven, MLB pitchers? Ryan has never shown he's willing to do that either, has he?

 

That isn't a strategy you do right now. It's one you do when you are missing a piece or two, not before you know what pieces you are going to be missing.

[Mike Sixel]

That isn't a strategy you do right now. It's one you do when you are missing a piece or two, not before you know what pieces you are going to be missing.

 

I never mentioned timing.....I asked if "you" thought Ryan would do that.

[Willihammer]

That isn't a strategy you do right now. It's one you do when you are missing a piece or two, not before you know what pieces you are going to be missing.

 

This is very debatable, given what we know about the attrition rate of prospects. You could just as easily (more easily, maybe) be waiting for a window that will never open.

[ThePuck]

I never mentioned timing.....I asked if "you" thought Ryan would do that.

 

Well, I don't believe he ever has before. Speaking of trading great prospects for great, proven, MLB pitching...KC is two games back for the wild card.

[Shane Wahl]

All nice to think about. But you're hypothesizing about something that's two years away. A lot can happen between now and then. Minor-leaguers are unknown quantities. Maybe only half the guys you listed end up being impact players... maybe less. Then you arrive at 2015, and you're in a situation that's not all that different, and you wasted the last year making no effort to legitimately improve your team.

 

I don't disagree with looking at 2015 as a realistic target but the Twins still need to keep getting better in the meantime.

 

Let's look at this another way. Buxton and Sano are the type of elite prospects that may require almost no time to adjust to the majors. If they come up next year and do their things, while a couple pitchers -- say, Gibson and Meyer -- emerge from the sea of mediocrity, aren't you going to feel a little bummed out that the Twins decided to pocket another $30 million rather than investing in proven arms that at least had the potential to help?

 

Nick, without looking back at the rest of my post, I thought I said that the Twins should spend *now* for 2015 in mind given the fact that those prospects will be ready to go. I also meant to distinguish between position player prospects and pitching prospects, and the clear discrepancy in number of viable prospects for that 2015 mark. So the Twins need to spend that $30 million (and could do it on E. Santana, Phil Hughes, and J. Santana). And not one year deals.

[cmb0252]

I never mentioned timing.....I asked if "you" thought Ryan would do that.

 

I don't know if Ryan would trade say....Sano, Buxton, or Meyer for a top arm but how about a reclamation project like Ervin Santana last year? Its not like we dont have to money to take on. People seem to forget that Santana was given away for free last year because of how poor he had pitched. Now he is magically a proven arm.

 

How about calling up the Rays about Hellboy? He would cost maybe a B spec which we are loaded with. Once again, I'm all for spending on pitching but because of how weak to FA market is I hope the Twins explore trades first.

[twinswon1991]

The problem is not the money it is the people making the decisions. TR still thinks that rbi, pitcher wins and tail battling are the be all end all. He scoffs at strikeout pitchers and couldnt spell WAR or sabrmetrics. Until TR is fired this franchise is doomed.

[twinswon1991]

The Twins will spend, but I have zero confidence that they will spend the right way, instead of overpaying for mediocrity, with Ryan at the helm. He has never done it. Never.

 

I would not mind if the Twins spend $30 million a year for Tanaka and Abreu and Guerrero (that takes care of 1B and SS). Then they should spend another $20-30 for 2 top FA SP. Trade Willingham/Doumit/Correia. Give Sano every chance to win the 3B job in ST.

 

Then maybe they will have a competitive team.

 

But with the people who are ru(i)ning them these days, I just don't see it happening.

 

There are bigger fish to fry than spending: Changing the Front office and the field management is necessary before spending.

 

Spot on. Until the old school (clueless) is gone we will continue to be a laughingstock.

[Shane Wahl]

E. Santana 3/48, Phil Hughes 2/18, J. Santana 1/2 with 3 in incentives and a big option.

 

Holy hell that maxes out at $30 million for 2014. Imagine that!

[diehardtwinsfan]

This is very debatable, given what we know about the attrition rate of prospects. You could just as easily (more easily, maybe) be waiting for a window that will never open.

 

We don't have enough prospects to fill all the holes on this team, and that's with the best farm in baseball. I'd note that trading for established players also carries with it some pretty substantial risk and can be just as damaging (and far more expensive).

 

There's a time to trade prospects for good players. That time isn't now.

[glunn]

The problem is not the money it is the people making the decisions. TR still thinks that rbi, pitcher wins and tail battling are the be all end all. He scoffs at strikeout pitchers and couldnt spell WAR or sabrmetrics. Until TR is fired this franchise is doomed.

 

Moderator note:

 

These are matters of opinion that you are stating as fact. That makes posts like this inflammatory. Please be more considerate of those members who may be tempted to respond in kind, at which point the thread will devolve into a flame war and rational discussion will get drowned out.

[notoriousgod71]

you have completely lost faith in the desire of this front office to compete.

 

This.

[Otto von Ballpark]

My point isn't that they shouldn't sign a guy or two, but I think everyone needs to ask themselves how many starters they need (who from the current options WILL and how many do you think SHOULD be in the 2014 rotation or have a spot open to compete for).

 

Just catching up on this thread now, just wanted to comment on this:

 

Remember that last offseason, TR apparently figured he only "needed" 3 new guys for the rotation, and we still wound up using Pedro Hernandez, PJ Walters, and other assorted flotsam before the end of May.

I'd be really careful with saying they "only need" X number of guys, or they need to leave X spots open for guys to compete for. This team, like the 2012 team before it, is dangerously close to having zero reliable average MLB starters. They need all the help they can get.

[Steve Johnson]

I agree. Tanaka is the prize. I would spent the 90M-110M if he checks out with our scouts.

 

Apparently, Nishioka checked out with our scouts. So I don't think it's as simple as that.

 

Top-flight Japanese pitchers tend to be a crapshoot, and none of them seem to have the control the Twins are usually looking for.

 

I think there's better risks.

 

Santana and Hughes...

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, unfortunately Nick, Terry Ryan's most recent comments do not offer any hope that you may be right.

 

Ryan has all but ruled out this route, saying, “If we’re going to do anything here [to] succeed in the near and long-term, it’s probably not going to be in free agency.”

Another long summer: 2014 not looking much better for Twins | Star Tribune

[TheLeviathan]

Well, unfortunately Nick, Terry Ryan's most recent comments do not offer any hope that you may be right.

 

Ryan has all but ruled out this route, saying, “If we’re going to do anything here [to] succeed in the near and long-term, it’s probably not going to be in free agency.”

Another long summer: 2014 not looking much better for Twins | Star Tribune

 

That's as damning a quote as I could have imagined. It isn't strategic media fodder, it isn't just next year but "long term", and it basically rules out all significant non-trade/draft options.

 

Ouch....that should kill any lingering optimism by anyone rational. This is, as I've been saying for awhile, a matter of principle for Ryan. Never about timing.

[Guest USAFChief]

Well that was a rather sobering article.

[Willihammer]

The solutions, though, aren’t particularly obvious. Free agency is a popular quick fix, but for a team like the Twins, that would be like shopping for a 100-person formal banquet at 7-Eleven — the needs are many, and the selection, particularly this year, is meager. Ryan has all but ruled out this route, saying, “If we’re going to do anything here [to] succeed in the near and long-term, it’s probably not going to be in free agency.”

 

Make a trade? That will take some creativity, since unlike with last offseason’s deals sending away Denard Span and Ben Revere, the Twins have few surpluses. Jared Burton, Casey Fien and Glen Perkins give them flexibility to deal a relief pitcher, but only Perkins figures to fetch much — and he’s a hometown bargain. Few other players have much trade value, for various reasons.

 

 

Was anyone paying attention to what happened around the league this summer?

 

What's stopping Ryan from blowing away 3-4 guys with 1 year offers on the promise that, if they perform, they will be playing for a contender after the trade deadline?

[howieramone1406390264]

That's as damning a quote as I could have imagined. It isn't strategic media fodder, it isn't just next year but "long term", and it basically rules out all significant non-trade/draft options.

 

Ouch....that should kill any lingering optimism by anyone rational. This is, as I've been saying for awhile, a matter of principle for Ryan. Never about timing.

I don't believe those in the national media predicting an early turnaround are going to change their tune or many on this board for that matter. Like the article said, Ryan will probably pursue low profile free agents, but that's not where the true success of the rebuild will come from. Most of the names of the players who will turn the Twins around are already known to us.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't believe those in the national media predicting an early turnaround are going to change their tune or many on this board for that matter. Like the article said, Ryan will probably pursue low profile free agents, but that's not where the true success of the rebuild will come from. Most of the names of the players who will turn the Twins around are already known to us.

 

That seems to conflict with your documented posts claiming that Terry Ryan will spend money on starting pitching this offseason, and that he knows the time is now and will make some big moves.

 

And if you do believe that he will not sign any significant pieces in FA, that seems to conflict with your documented belief that "the parade starts in 2014". Do you truly think that a bunch of prospects all at AA or A are going to suddenly take us from zero to hero in one season, with no hiccups along the way, especially when many of our top prospects are not even expected to be up until late 2014, if at all?

[ThePuck]

Well, unfortunately Nick, Terry Ryan's most recent comments do not offer any hope that you may be right.

 

Ryan has all but ruled out this route, saying, “If we’re going to do anything here [to] succeed in the near and long-term, it’s probably not going to be in free agency.”

Another long summer: 2014 not looking much better for Twins | Star Tribune

 

Completely predictable. Thanks for the link.

[old nurse]

Was anyone paying attention to what happened around the league this summer?

 

What's stopping Ryan from blowing away 3-4 guys with 1 year offers on the promise that, if they perform, they will be playing for a contender after the trade deadline?

 

Reality would stop Ryan from blowing away people with a one year offer with a promise to be playing for a contender. What free agent signed last winter is playing for a contender. Feldman briefly was. The year before Maholm. It is a promise he can't keep.

[howieramone1406390264]

That seems to conflict with your documented posts claiming that Terry Ryan will spend money on starting pitching this offseason, and that he knows the time is now and will make some big moves.

 

And if you do believe that he will not sign any significant pieces in FA, that seems to conflict with your documented belief that "the parade starts in 2014". Do you truly think that a bunch of prospects all at AA or A are going to suddenly take us from zero to hero in one season, with no hiccups along the way, especially when many of our top prospects are not even expected to be up until late 2014, if at all?

 

I fail to see a conflict in my posts. Ryan will spend money on starting pitching this offseason, he knows now is a very good time, but actually has until the winter of 2014/2015. I think he will add 1 and probably 2 starting pitchers better than what we have. I consider that to be big and significant. You misquoted me................. the parade starts in 2015.

[Mr. Brooks]

I fail to see a conflict in my posts. Ryan will spend money on starting pitching this offseason, he knows now is a very good time, but actually has until the winter of 2014/2015. I think he will add 1 and probably 2 starting pitchers better than what we have. I consider that to be big and significant. You misquoted me................. the parade starts in 2015.

 

Well, Terry Ryan disagrees with the underlined, according to the quote of his that I posted.

[Teflon]

The Twins should actually cut payroll in the off-season, ridding themselves of Doumit's and Willingham's last years if anything of a modicum of longer term value can be gotten in return for them. Knowing the Twins, however, they'll convince themselves that they can get more in return if they wait on the pair until the trading deadline which, when you factor the $10.5 million combined salaries for the two, will just be a waste of money on a team that still won't pitch adequately enough for Doumit's and Willingham's bats to matter. (Plus the Twins never seem to make out all that well at the trading deadline, anyway.) It also clears the way earlier for playing time for the young 'uns.

[TheLeviathan]

I fail to see a conflict in my posts. Ryan will spend money on starting pitching this offseason, he knows now is a very good time, but actually has until the winter of 2014/2015. I think he will add 1 and probably 2 starting pitchers better than what we have. I consider that to be big and significant. You misquoted me................. the parade starts in 2015.

 

Except he just said he won't. Pretty clearly and without much wiggle room to spin it otherwise. A quote like this is as clear and as concise as you will ever hear from an executive of a sports team and it completely undercuts any optimism about the offseason.

 

To suggest otherwise is a really disingenuous re-reading of the statement he made.

[howieramone1406390264]

Except he just said he won't. Pretty clearly and without much wiggle room to spin it otherwise. A quote like this is as clear and as concise as you will ever hear from an executive of a sports team and it completely undercuts any optimism about the offseason.

 

To suggest otherwise is a really disingenuous re-reading of the statement he made.

 

It is counterintuitive to interpret one Terry Ryan quote so rigidly, as to assume they will never spend one penny on free agent starting pitching, now or ever.

[TheLeviathan]

It is counterintuitive to interpret one Terry Ryan quote so rigidly, as to assume they will never spend one penny on free agent starting pitching, now or ever.

 

He was asked a specific question and he gave a very specific answer. He even went farther than he needed to. He could've said "We'll use FA in the way we feel best to rebuild this club" or "We don't think in the near term that FA is an answer to helping turn this team around" or something else. To so flatly assert that it won't be used now OR in the long-term is far more than he needed to provide.

 

I don't read that as they will do nothing, but as they will do nothing significant t augment the rebuild. Again, it's an incredibly damning quote for any of us that were hopeful of a more aggressive approach to adding talent without trading.

[Kwak]

Bremer had already mentioned Luke Hochevar as a possible target! That should clear-up any misunderstanding of "The Plan" and what results we should expect.

[Pius Jefferson]

I think Terry Ryan doesn't wants to spend money in free agency because he doesn't know how to.