Article: Why the Twins Will Spend This Offseason

[Alex]

They can do whatever they want to do. This is America. We can choose to be fans, or we can choose not to be. This is not the first time a small minority felt they got a bad deal on a publically funded project. In fact if they did it all over again, I bet the downtown merchants would pickup the full tab.

 

Or you can be a fan regardless and share your frustrations about the way the team is run.

[ThePuck]

They can do whatever they want to do. This is America. We can choose to be fans, or we can choose not to be. This is not the first time a small minority felt they got a bad deal on a publically funded project. In fact if they did it all over again, I bet the downtown merchants would pickup the full tab.

 

What they CAN or CAN'T do isn't in question. They CAN eventually bring this payroll down to 50M or lower if they want to. You seem to have this idea that in order to be fans we just have to accept anything Twins ownership/management does or doesn't do. That doesn't fly. I believe most people will tell you they expect people to live up to their word...even more so when it involves money...even more so when it involves a huge amount of money. If you don't expect that, that's certainly your choice...but you probably shouldn't expect most people to think the same way.

[DJL44]

Why will they spend more money? Because they make more in the long term when they win than when they lose.

[LaBombo]

Though it was a decade ago, TR has acquired expensive-ish starting pitching with Kenny Rogers and Rick Reed (and though we'd prefer them not to sign those type of guys), and that was to supplement already competitive teams. However, things are different now, with more windfall of cash and more legitimate prospect core emerging, the Twins probably have an imperative to spend money and perhaps take more risks. I'm fine with nearly any pitcher as long as the deal is no longer than three years (save Tanaka); the deals would be short enough that they shouldn't interfere with paying the emerging core. Payroll will be low enough that it might be worth the risk to acquire tradeable assets whether we are actually competitive in 2014 or not.

Not even then, really. Rogers cost only $2 million in his only year here, was wasn't much even back then. Reed cost an average of only $1.5 million more in his 2 years here than the guy he was traded for, Matt Lawton. So Ryan really only added an average of less than 2 million per year in payroll for a year of Rogers and two years of Reed.

 

Pretty much agree with the max deal length of 3 years. There will probably be a few guys who command a longer deal, like Ervin Santana, but it's hard to see the Twins going after that kind of signing anyway.

[twinsnorth49]

They can do whatever they want to do. This is America. We can choose to be fans, or we can choose not to be. This is not the first time a small minority felt they got a bad deal on a publically funded project. In fact if they did it all over again, I bet the downtown merchants would pickup the full tab.

 

You're right, who cares about integrity and honesty, this is America, lying is much more profitable.

 

Does choosing to be a fan mean I relinquish my right to be critical when it is merited?

[ThePuck]

The upcoming core won't be due significant pay raises until around 2018...if even then...assuming they are even worthy of significantly high salaries by then (or ever) to begin with. 2018 just so happens to be the last year of Mauer's contract. Limiting our spending to just three year contracts this upcoming offseason, in order to pay for our players we are just hoping will be good enough to be worth a large salary, doesn't make much sense and will severely limit the quality of players we can sign.

[LaBombo]

This is not the first time a small minority felt they got a bad deal on a publically funded project. In fact if they did it all over again, I bet the downtown merchants would pickup the full tab.

You pretty sure that minority is still small? Even right after a wildly successful debut season in 2010, 40 percent of MN residents felt the public subsidy of TF wasn't justified. After three really bad seasons and a dramatically slashed payroll, has that number declined or risen?

 

Too bad we didn't get the downtown merchants to pay for the Vikings stadium either. Woulda been nice.

[PseudoSABR]

Not even then, really. Rogers cost only $2 million in his only year here, was wasn't much even back then.

Mea Culpa. For some reason, I had it in my head that it was much higher than that.

[Nick Nelson]

They can do whatever they want to do. This is America.

Ugh.

[ThePuck]

Ugh.

 

It's almost like you can feel your head is about to explode, no? :-)

[LaBombo]

Mea Culpa. For some reason, I had it in my head that it was much higher than that.

So did I. And Reed really was expensive (15 million/2 years was a lot back then), even though the loss of Lawton offset most of the money.

 

Was surprised to see Rogers' one 2 million dollar season in MN after he made almost 4 times that in TX the year before. And he made $8 million in his final season just 5 years ago, when Detroit lost 88 games. Had forgotten there were only two seasons between The Gambler knowing when to fold'em and the Tigers making it to the ALCS

[LaBombo]

Does choosing to be a fan mean I relinquish my right to be critical when it is merited?

Yes. Strangely, however, unmerited criticism is well within your rights. It's kind of hard to explain...

[Joe A. Preusser]

I get really tired of hearing the "Twins won't compete until 2015 so there's no point in spending" refrain. Just a loser's mentality that I pray Terry Ryan does not share.

 

 

I think the point is that our window really opens in earnest in 2015, so if we don't have our pieces in place then, we actively start wasting opportunity. If we can be more competitive next year by signing guys a year early that is fantastic. But opening day 2015 we're on the clock and none of us want to see any of that time pissed away.

[Shane Wahl]

2015 is going to be the first full season of the Buxton-Mauer-Sano trio with Arcia, Rosario, Pinto, Hicks, and Dozier in support. It is also the first full year of the likely trio of Gibson, Meyer, and . . . . May . . . with . . . support?

 

Something looks good and something looks fairly dubious. Getting this all ready to go in 2014 for 2015 seems like a damn good idea to me, so for the Twins to not at least TRY to spend $90 million next year would be terrible. $30 million easily acquire E. Santana and Hughes.

[ashbury]

The baseline of 51%-52% of revenue has gone the way of the dinosaur.

 

You say that as though it dates back to 1961 and Calvin Griffith. The interview everyone remembers is from 2010, just three years ago. Link:

 

Upbeat Twins owner Jim Pohlad has lots to say but stays mum on the Mauer issue | MinnPost

 

"And though the Twins expect to lose a significant chunk of revenue-sharing money from Major League Baseball in 2011, Pohlad said Target Field revenues should allow the Twins' payroll to remain in the $95 million range beyond this season. "

 

What an exceedingly bitter thing it is, to re-read that now. He went on to say that it could drop. But I really want 2013's payroll to be seen in retrospect as a one-year blip.

 

The proposed model was never legally binding nor intended to be taken as such.

 

Sure. But is it wise business, in the line of work the Twins are in, to be known as a group that you'd better get every last thing in writing? Or is it better to be known as someone whose word, vetted by the lawyers or not, means something? Because community goodwill is no doubt part of how ownership values their franchise, and this kind of thing can piddle it away in a few short years.

[Kwak]

The premise of this thread Why the Twins Will Spend This Offseason has raised the question to the doubters: Why do you think they won't? I shall try to be brief.

 

1) They don't have to do so. Minnesota fans have demonstrated considerable tolerance to lack-lustre results. "There are certain places where there's more latitude on the part of management to deal with the issue of competition. Places like Minnesota..." Sandy Alderson former A's GM. Quote taken from The Extra 2% by Jonah Keri, 2011.

I sat in the Legend's Club on a beautiful Saturday night. These are expensive tickets held by season ticket holders--but it sure seemed to me that most there has acquired these seats [somehow]. No one talked baseball. Mostly people ate, drank, and soaked-up the atmosphere. Except for the 7th inning stretch and when there was two outs in the 9th one might have thought this crowd was watching Shakespeare in the Park instead of a MLB game. But everybody seemed happy and glad that they spent their time and money to go to the game. Winning or losing was simply incidental to their evening of enjoyment.

 

2. The Twins have little to even negative incentive to spend

 

That particular game was very nearly a sell-out. A better team would not have sold enough extra tickets to cover the added cost of a better team.

 

Revenue sharing is a substantial % of gross revenues and doesn't have to be earned on the diamond. But revenue sharing does have a hook--"poorer teams benefit less from revenue sharing when they start winning more games."--The Extra 21/2 %. "Win more games--and get less money from the league."

 

3. Safer and cheaper to not shortcut the process

 

It pains me to write this stuff because I'm one of those paying for Target Field. But many feel that by "going slow and taking your turn" (building through the draft) saves money, allows a better opportunity to build a stronger and longer-lasting-winning team. Given the huge disparity in revenues between the top markets and everybody else, the smaller (not just the small!) market teams probably have to concentrate their talent in a shorter window in order to "have enough" to overcome all of the big market teams to win a World Series.

 

4. The Pohlads have shown a keen interest in paying-off the short-term debt.

I don't know why, but apparently they do. The Twins provided information for a newspaper article to discuss this issue--an issue that very few, if any, other teams would be willing to even mention.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

You're just providing us all with false hope. The Twins are too scared to spend money.

[Highabove]

From new underwear up to Baseball Players, there are people who will not buy unless they are getting what they perceive as a bargain. Do we really expect Ryan to change is stripes overnight??

[howieramone1406390264]

You say that as though it dates back to 1961 and Calvin Griffith. The interview everyone remembers is from 2010, just three years ago. Link:

 

Upbeat Twins owner Jim Pohlad has lots to say but stays mum on the Mauer issue | MinnPost

 

"And though the Twins expect to lose a significant chunk of revenue-sharing money from Major League Baseball in 2011, Pohlad said Target Field revenues should allow the Twins' payroll to remain in the $95 million range beyond this season. "

 

What an exceedingly bitter thing it is, to re-read that now. He went on to say that it could drop. But I really want 2013's payroll to be seen in retrospect as a one-year blip.

 

 

 

Sure. But is it wise business, in the line of work the Twins are in, to be known as a group that you'd better get every last thing in writing? Or is it better to be known as someone whose word, vetted by the lawyers or not, means something? Because community goodwill is no doubt part of how ownership values their franchise, and this kind of thing can piddle it away in a few short years.

I don't care to, nor will I get into a debate on this. But IMO, it boils down to one question. Did the Twin's Organization ever make any promise which would lead Terry Ryan to believe, he was obligated to spend money for the sake of spending money?

 

I completely agree with your comments on goodwill.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't care to, nor will I get into a debate on this. But IMO, it boils down to one question. Did the Twin's Organization ever make any promise which would lead Terry Ryan to believe, he was obligated to spend money for the sake of spending money?

 

Your question is irrelevant to the issue. The percentage number came up in regards to how to set payroll expectations, you are twisting the argument to fit the refrain you have brought to the thread.

[ThePuck]

Your question is irrelevant to the issue. The percentage number came up in regards to how to set payroll expectations, you are twisting the argument to fit the refrain you have brought to the thread.

 

Exactly...parameters of the debate just keep moving...Not only that, but who is to say paying for a quality player is spending money for the sake of spending? We have a plethora of holes to fill, spending to fill one or more isn't spending to spend...

[Highabove]

I don't care to, nor will I get into a debate on this. But IMO, it boils down to one question. Did the Twin's Organization ever make any promise which would lead Terry Ryan to believe, he was obligated to spend money for the sake of spending money?

 

Here's your answer

 

 

"The incremental revenues generated by a new ballpark should help stabilize the franchise and provide the team with additional resources to be competitive".

Twins Website 2005

 

When asked "how long can the team sustain payrolls above" $90M, Pohlad said, "It's all a function of our revenue. We try to keep (the payroll) within 50 percent of our revenue range. So model-wise, it would indicate that it's sustainable." Pohlad added, Pioneer press 2/09/2010

 

"Lack of money breeds lack of players, which breeds losing teams and lowers attendance. Therefore, the Metrodome is a recipe for failure and financial shortfalls". Twins talking points to State Legislature.

 

Twins CEO Jim Pohlad said the team will continue to spend an average of 50 percent of its revenues on payroll. That same philosophy was there in the Metrodome, but revenues have grown significant

 

Star Tribune 11/11/2010

 

The Twins' philosophy is to use 50 percent of revenues to determine what the payroll is, and the move to Target Field is the reason why that bottom line has increased. That's not stopping the Twins from tweaking the field, however, as $4 to $6 million is being invested in the one-year-old club with enhancements.

CBS Sports 11/11/2010

[jm3319]

I didn't realize payroll was still over $80M this year. I thought it was closer to $60 or $70..... Who knew junk was so expensive these days? That means they're "paying" over $1M per win this year and are still terrible.....Yikes.

[ashbury]

but revenues have grown significant

 

[Nick Nelson]

2015 is going to be the first full season of the Buxton-Mauer-Sano trio with Arcia, Rosario, Pinto, Hicks, and Dozier in support. It is also the first full year of the likely trio of Gibson, Meyer, and . . . . May . . . with . . . support?

All nice to think about. But you're hypothesizing about something that's two years away. A lot can happen between now and then. Minor-leaguers are unknown quantities. Maybe only half the guys you listed end up being impact players... maybe less. Then you arrive at 2015, and you're in a situation that's not all that different, and you wasted the last year making no effort to legitimately improve your team.

 

I don't disagree with looking at 2015 as a realistic target but the Twins still need to keep getting better in the meantime.

 

Let's look at this another way. Buxton and Sano are the type of elite prospects that may require almost no time to adjust to the majors. If they come up next year and do their things, while a couple pitchers -- say, Gibson and Meyer -- emerge from the sea of mediocrity, aren't you going to feel a little bummed out that the Twins decided to pocket another $30 million rather than investing in proven arms that at least had the potential to help?

[jorgenswest]

I have changed my mind as I read the posts about the budget.

 

I have come to believe that season ticket holders need a better team next year even at the cost of the future. I fear the risk of players to large contracts only to have them ineffective or injured when they are needed in 2016-2017. I think it gives the Twins a better chance of fielding a very good team by timing the signings after the base has major league experience.

 

However I realize that if something isn't done to make this team better next year, revenues will decline. Declining revenues could prevent the possibility of signing players in the future.

 

It is better to try to be competitive every year instead of trying to time it to build a very good team in the future. Maybe they will get lucky one of these years and make the playoffs. Maybe they will just hang out around .500 every year with a mix of improving young players and declining old players. In any case, the act of making moves and signing a good free agent will generate ticket sales. Those revenues are needed and the season ticket holders deserve the attempt to be competitive.

[Physics Guy]

Let's look at this another way. Buxton and Sano are the type of elite prospects that may require almost no time to adjust to the majors. If they come up next year and do their things, while a couple pitchers -- say, Gibson and Meyer -- emerge from the sea of mediocrity, aren't you going to feel a little bummed out that the Twins decided to pocket another $30 million rather than investing in proven arms that at least had the potential to help?

 

Very bummed out. Please don't let me down Terry Ryan.

[cmb0252]

All nice to think about. But you're hypothesizing about something that's two years away. A lot can happen between now and then. Minor-leaguers are unknown quantities. Maybe only half the guys you listed end up being impact players... maybe less. Then you arrive at 2015, and you're in a situation that's not all that different, and you wasted the last year making no effort to legitimately improve your team.

 

I don't disagree with looking at 2015 as a realistic target but the Twins still need to keep getting better in the meantime.

 

Let's look at this another way. Buxton and Sano are the type of elite prospects that may require almost no time to adjust to the majors. If they come up next year and do their things, while a couple pitchers -- say, Gibson and Meyer -- emerge from the sea of mediocrity, aren't you going to feel a little bummed out that the Twins decided to pocket another $30 million rather than investing in proven arms that at least had the potential to help?

 

I'm all for spending big, currently consider myself the leader of the sign Tanaka bandwagon, but who are these proven arms? Even the top arms in this FA class have major question marks and in normal years wouldn't even be top 5 guys. If the Twins can't sign Tanaka I much rather trade for an arm. Find this years Santana.

[Mike Sixel]

Are you willing to trade some great propsects for great, proven, MLB pitchers? Ryan has never shown he's willing to do that either, has he?

[Oldgoat_MN]

I think I'll post something here that I feel has been under-represented.

 

I really believe that Terry Ryan would like to have a winning team. More than TR, however, I suspect the Pohlads would love to have a winning team.

 

These things take time, given where we found ourselves in 2011. Am I happy with the commitments made in the last off-season? No.

 

I do believe, however, that the Pohlads feel Ryan is the baseball guy to create a winner for them. 'Bragging Rights' does not even begin to tell the story of a day in the life of a Pohlad when your team wins the World Series.

 

I think that sometimes I have less patience than they do, but maybe not. Maybe they are unstable, obsessive, over-committed Twins fans, too.