Article: Twins Can Improve Rotation Through Free Agency

[Thegrin]

I doubt if we fans have any idea how hard the Twins tried to sign the top Free Agent pitchers. I wonder how many times the Twins called an agent for a FA and they didn't even bother to return the phone call. Often players will specify the teams they would like to be traded to and Minnesota is not one of them. It is true, that sometimes, when their favored teams don't show the expected money, agents will use the Twins to bid up the value of their FA. Either way, the Twins lose and people here scream that the Twins aren't aggressive enough. What we don't know about FA negotiations could fill a book.

[beckmt]

I somewhat agree with good pitchers not wanting to come here. Therefore we will have to overpay somewhat. Money will still talk, so there is hope. Just have to pick the correct 2 to sign. Want them younger rather than older. May have to take that chance though.

[Thegrin]

Of course money still talks. If we are talking about a good pitcher, Other teams will always match or beat what the Twins are offering. It is a no win situation for us.

[ThePuck]

It seems to me that every prospective free agent starter falls in one of the following four groups: 1) costs too much 2) not that good 3) won't come here 4) injury prone

 

I guess the answer is to not sign anyone.

 

You forgot 5) they'd require contracts that would take them into their declining years.

[Thegrin]

Thats funny and true. I am saving those quotes for future threads.

"5 reasons the Twins won't sign a good Free Agent pitcher" by stringer bell and #5 ThePuck

1) costs too much

2) not that good

3) won't come here

4) injury prone

6) they'd require contracts that would take them into their declining years.

[Oxtung]

2012

Mark Buehrle - Miami Marlins

Jose Reyes - Miami Marlins

Heath Bell - Miami Marlins

 

2013

Edwin Jackson - Chicago Cubs

 

Zach Greinke says he would sign with whoever pays him the most.

 

That's 5 of the top FA's over the last 2 seasons that either signed or said they would sign with a terrible team. The "Twins are bad and nobody will sign with us" excuse just doesn't fly.

[Thegrin]

If the player is a good player, and the Twins make a high bid for him, another team will always match or beat the Twins offer and the player will almost always choose another team, given that the $$ is equal or nearly equal.

We can only hope that some good pitcher will want to join the Twins because of the ballpark the Twins defense and the outstanding relief pitching.

[Thegrin]

If you want a lesson in bidding you should watch the Storage Wars series on A&E . People that think they only have to bid high and they will win the auction are rudely surprised. I watch this and think of all the Free Agents that the Twins had no chance of getting, even though they were willing to commit unreasonable amounts of money.

[old nurse]

2012

Mark Buehrle - Miami Marlins

Jose Reyes - Miami Marlins

Heath Bell - Miami Marlins

 

2013

Edwin Jackson - Chicago Cubs

 

Zach Greinke says he would sign with whoever pays him the most.

 

That's 5 of the top FA's over the last 2 seasons that either signed or said they would sign with a terrible team. The "Twins are bad and nobody will sign with us" excuse just doesn't fly.

 

Miami had 1 90 loss season before these guys signed, prior to that they had a string of mediocre seasons. They had a core of a strong pitching staff. Hardly the same situations as the Twins.

Edwin Jackson, 2 years of free agency, was it only the Cubs offering him a long term contract? He had 2 different years to get a deal. If Jackson were the kind of player you would build around, why was he traded so frequently?

 

Please find me the quote that Greinke said that he would sign with whoever pays him the most before he signed his contract. The statement was made after he signed . Considering his actions to get out of KC, I believe that statement about as much as a Ryan Braun statement.

 

Actions speak louder than words. You need a core of something to attract a top flight player.

[Oxtung]

2010

Jason Bay - Mets

 

2011

Jason Werth - Nationals

 

2012

Josh Willingham - Twins

Michael Cuddyer - Colorado

Mark Buerhle - Marlins

Jose Reyes - Marlins

Heath Bell - Marlins

Jorge Soler - Cubs

2013

Edwin Jackson - Cubs

Jeremy Guthrie - Royals

Shane Victorino - Boston

Nick Swisher - Indians

Michael Bourn - Indians

 

That brings us to 13 good players that signed multi-year contracts with >90 loss teams in the last few years. I guess I agree with Old Nurse:

 

Actions speak louder than words.

[Mr. Brooks]

If you want a lesson in bidding you should watch the Storage Wars series on A&E . People that think they only have to bid high and they will win the auction are rudely surprised. I watch this and think of all the Free Agents that the Twins had no chance of getting, even though they were willing to commit unreasonable amounts of money.

 

Yes, scripted television shows are always good economic teachers.

[Alex]

We don't know that always is true (and bolding it doesn't make it so).

 

That said there do seem to be hints and rumors that the Twins don't make competitive offers. Also, Parker mentioned a source that said the Twins do have trouble getting interest in some FA because of their level of competition. But clearly it's not always true.

[Mr. Brooks]

thegrin:

 

Didn't you just tell us in one post how little we know about FA negotiations, then go on over several posts to claim that you know for certain how FA negotiations work in regards to players not wanting to come to MN?

[Mike Sixel]

I am not interested in excuses, I'm interested in results. If he can't get FAs to come here, then they need a new GM.

[Buck Nasty]

Your premise is just not true. Edwin Jackson is a better pitcher by almost every statistic. You really don't need much more proof than their contracts but just to be clear here is the last 5 years as you suggest.

 

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]

[/TD]

[TD]ERA

ERA+

Avg IP

Edwin Jackson

4.06

105

199

Kevin Correia

4.73

81

156

[/TABLE]

 

 

Edwin Jackson isn't an ace, he isn't even a #2 starter but then he isn't being paid like one either. He is the definition of a #3 starter. A guy who take the ball and give you 200 IP with an average ERA. The fact that he has not pitched well this season shouldn't diminish the fact that he is significantly better than Correia and Pelfrey historically. I would also put my faith in Jackson to be better than both again next season.

 

Can I ask where you pull your data from/filters? I just ran a comparison from Baseball Cube, 2009-2013 MLB:

 

ERA: Jackon 4.13/Correia 4.45

WHIP: Jackson 1.35/Correia 1.37

Innings: Jackson 968/Correia 829 (5 year averages = 193.6 and 165.8)

2013 Salary: Jackson $13M/ Correia $4.5M

 

Jackson's averaging an extra 30 innings/year which has value. But considering their ERA and WHIP are similar, I can certainly see how someone can say Jackson isn't worth the extra $8.5M/Yr to a Correia.

[Alex]

Can I ask where you pull your data from/filters? I just ran a comparison from Baseball Cube, 2009-2013 MLB:

 

ERA: Jackon 4.13/Correia 4.45

WHIP: Jackson 1.35/Correia 1.37

Innings: Jackson 968/Correia 829 (5 year averages = 193.6 and 165.8)

2013 Salary: Jackson $13M/ Correia $4.5M

 

Jackson's averaging an extra 30 innings/year which has value. But considering their ERA and WHIP are similar, I can certainly see how someone can say Jackson isn't worth the extra $8.5M/Yr to a Correia.

 

Hmm...I'm looking at Fangraphs WAR. This will be the second time Correia has posted a War above 0.6 in the last five. Edwin Jackson hasn't posted a WAR below two in those last five years. Jackson is listed as worth about $5M more than Correia (this year) which is exactly what people are saying, yes you overpay to get Jackson but you actually get a better player with more upside.

 

I did look at their stats again in Baseball Reference (2008-2013) and somehow got a third set of numbers (maybe due to updates?):

 

Jackson: 4.17 ERA, ERA+ 101

Correia: 4.66 ERA, ERA+ 83

 

So, I'd agree that difference is not small and that the Twins are in a position to deliberately overpay a pitcher like Jackson to make the team better.

 

The thing is when you spend very little, you're far more likely to get more value out of a player who succeeds, but even when he does, you still don't have a very good player that helps improve the team. When you overpay you aren't going to get full value but you're more likely to improve by more.

[old nurse]

2010

Jason Bay - Mets

 

2011

Jason Werth - Nationals

 

2012

Josh Willingham - Twins

Michael Cuddyer - Colorado

Mark Buerhle - Marlins

Jose Reyes - Marlins

Heath Bell - Marlins

Jorge Soler - Cubs

2013

Edwin Jackson - Cubs

Jeremy Guthrie - Royals

Shane Victorino - Boston

Nick Swisher - Indians

Michael Bourn - Indians

 

That brings us to 13 good players that signed multi-year contracts with >90 loss teams in the last few years. I guess I agree with Old Nurse:

 

The actual comment made last winter was elite free agents don't go to teams with multiple 90 loss seasons. Elite, not good. Multiple 90 loss seasons not one. If you are going to use me as an example at least get my position correct.

As for what you call a good major league player.

Are you trying to say you would build a rotation with Guthrie as your ace? Guthrie has what recent numbers to even say number 3 starter on a good rotation? The half year he spent in KC?

Soler has accomplished something as a major league player to even be called a good major league player?

Heath Bell was coming off a down season in 2011. His 2012 season proved 2012 wasn't a fluke. His value was so great Miami received a low level prospect for him.

[Alex]

The actual comment made last winter was elite free agents don't go to teams with multiple 90 loss seasons. Elite, not good. Multiple 90 loss seasons not one. If you are going to use me as an example at least get my position correct.

As for what you call a good major league player.

Are you trying to say you would build a rotation with Guthrie as your ace? Guthrie has what recent numbers to even say number 3 starter on a good rotation? The half year he spent in KC?

Soler has accomplished something as a major league player to even be called a good major league player?

Heath Bell was coming off a down season in 2011. His 2012 season proved 2012 wasn't a fluke. His value was so great Miami received a low level prospect for him.

 

I think he was referring to thegrin's comments.

[old nurse]

I think he was referring to thegrin's comments.

 

It has been an ongoing discussion. It is part of the ongoing Grienke or Sanchez would have signed here if the Twins offered the most money.

[Alex]

It has been an ongoing discussion. It is part of the ongoing Grienke or Sanchez would have signed here if the Twins offered the most money.

 

Sure, but in the context of this discussion a lot of people have moved the narrative from "elite" to "good."

[Guest USAFChief]

I think Mike wants Wins has it right.

 

It doesn't much matter to me if Terry Ryan can't or won't sign free agents. If either is the case, find someone who can and ​will.

[old nurse]

Sure, but in the context of this discussion a lot of people have moved the narrative from "elite" to "good."

 

And having merely good pitchers does nothing for winning in the post season.

[stringer bell]

I think Mike wants Wins has it right.

 

It doesn't much matter to me if Terry Ryan can't or won't sign free agents. If either is the case, find someone who can and ​will.

Good point, Chief. BTW, did you have a good time at the Minn./NM State tilt?

[Alex]

And having merely good pitchers does nothing for winning in the post season.

 

Sigh. Following the theory here, sign good pitchers to become competitive. Get better and then maybe elite pitchers sign. The alternative is doing nothing, and it's an approach that has done nothing so far.

[Guest USAFChief]

And having merely good pitchers does nothing for winning in the post season.

I'd settle for getting to the post season at this point.

[old nurse]

Sigh. Following the theory here, sign good pitchers to become competitive. Get better and then maybe elite pitchers sign. The alternative is doing nothing, and it's an approach that has done nothing so far.

 

sigh. Never said that they shouldn't or couldn't sign good players, just not the elite ones that will get you over the top when you stink. Still, to be competitive you need to have players capable of playing at an elite level. You need a pitcher who even though may be average can come up with the good game. The last few years the pitchers labeled not elite but good have not shown that.

[Thegrin]

thegrin:

 

Didn't you just tell us in one post how little we know about FA negotiations, then go on over several posts to claim that you know for certain how FA negotiations work in regards to players not wanting to come to MN?

We do not know the details of specific notifications but we do know the results. We also know the rules of the marketplace. The rich get richer for a reason.

[Kwak]

With all of the money saved by not improving the rotation maybe they can spend some on hitters?

[Oxtung]

Can I ask where you pull your data from/filters? I just ran a comparison from Baseball Cube, 2009-2013 MLB:

 

ERA: Jackon 4.13/Correia 4.45

WHIP: Jackson 1.35/Correia 1.37

Innings: Jackson 968/Correia 829 (5 year averages = 193.6 and 165.8)

2013 Salary: Jackson $13M/ Correia $4.5M

 

Jackson's averaging an extra 30 innings/year which has value. But considering their ERA and WHIP are similar, I can certainly see how someone can say Jackson isn't worth the extra $8.5M/Yr to a Correia.

 

I used baseball-reference.com. Here are the exact pages. Correia and Jackson. The big difference is I pulled 2008-2012 seasons. How they performed in 2013 has no bearing on the discussion of their relative value when they signed in 2012.

[Oxtung]

The actual comment made last winter was elite free agents don't go to teams with multiple 90 loss seasons. Elite, not good. Multiple 90 loss seasons not one. If you are going to use me as an example at least get my position correct.

As for what you call a good major league player.

Are you trying to say you would build a rotation with Guthrie as your ace? Guthrie has what recent numbers to even say number 3 starter on a good rotation? The half year he spent in KC?

Soler has accomplished something as a major league player to even be called a good major league player?

Heath Bell was coming off a down season in 2011. His 2012 season proved 2012 wasn't a fluke. His value was so great Miami received a low level prospect for him.

 

As Alex said, this discussion has morphed beyond elite players to encompass any good players. While not elite, many of those players are the next rung down.

 

Many of those players also signed onto multiple 90 loss teams. Hell Jason Werth, who had just finished 8th in MVP voting, signed with the Nationals who had just finished their 5th straight 90 loss season.

 

I was under the impression that we couldn't sign any of the big name international free agents because the Twins are a terrible team. That's why I added Soler since he was a pretty big name when he signed.

 

As always, if you search hard enough I'm sure you can find an excuse for every player, but at what point are the numbers overwhelming? How many players need to sign with bad teams before the excuses stop?