Article: Twins Can Improve Rotation Through Free Agency

[Oxtung]

I could get behind the acquisition of a top FA if we were KCs position right now.

 

KC couldn't afford to sign top of the rotation help this offseason that's why they had to trade for it. The Twins will most likely (hopefully?) be in the same position a few years from now. When a mid-market team has a young core that is "ready" it can no longer afford to sign that elite FA because it can't pay for it in the out years and still resign all of the young core. This is something that the "wait until we're ready" crowd never seems to address.

[Oxtung]

So' date=' I wouldn't be surprised if Terry Ryan goes after two more Correia/Pelfrey-level arms for 2014-15 ($20-30 M). Or, perhaps a deeper push for a Johnson, Hughes, Lincecum, Santana-level pitcher who could emerge as an ace.

 

With the $ he has saved: (a) with Blackburn and Morneau off the payroll, and ( with Willingham and Doumit due to go by the end of next year, or via trade--Ryan is due to spend some dough.

 

By 2015 we can hope that May, Meyer, Berrios, Gibson, etc... will take command, but the time is now to roll the dice on one or two more free agent starters. Financially, there is more to lose by NOT entering into the free agent market--in order to put a marketable team on the field. As my old man said, "You've got to crack some eggs in order to make an omelet."[/quote']

 

Ryan had between $30MM and $40MM last off season. In fact he is in almost the exact same position this season as he was last season. One starter "locked in" and boatloads of money. Why is this the season he is "due to spend some dough"?

[Shane Wahl]

I am down with all four. I would be very happy with two of them, and happy-ish with one of them.

[TRex]

I wonder, with the increased payroll flexibility we all agree the Twins have at present, if they would be willing to trade for another team's bad contract.

 

Specifically, I was wondering what people would think about trading with the Blue Jays for Mark Buehrle? The Blue Jays already have 15 players under contract for 2014 at >$110,000,000! Buehrle's contract is overpriced, at $18 million for 2014 and $19 for 2015; but he is having another Buehrle-esque year... 200 innings with an ERA in the mid-3's. He is currently 34 but he doesn't seem to be losing his stuff.

 

His contract is such a severe over-pay that I can't imagine it would take a King's ransom to acquire him... maybe an 8-12, a 20-25 and a project (maybe less?).

[kab21]

I am all about Lincecum. His velocity is down but all of the important numbers (if you dig deeper) are where they need to be. Even walks (2.5 K:BB ratio). He's the type of pitcher that has a chance to pull a Liriano (regardless of his success it was time to part with him).

 

At the end of the day (like last year) I'm all for spending 3yrs and 35-40 on the best pitcher the Twins can buy. I'm against the Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle level contracts. 4+ yr contracts for guys that are unlikely to have a sub 4 ERA (Buehrle could come close) over the life of the contract. No thanks.

 

Fangraphs only uses the contracts of free agents signed this year to determine what is player value. Any players signed to an extension are not put into the value computations. Many large contracts are not performing well this year so your value goes up. Remember also I said the problem was he got a second year, not dollar per year.

 

this is not how fangraphs values players. Fangraph valuations (like Correia's 5.6M) is calculated based on his WAR which is calculated using FIP. Each win (WAR) is worth about 4.5M. correia was an unimpressive signing but at the end of the day he is performing as well as a majority of the pitchers signed for <60M (basically everyone except Anibal and Zack).

 

I think most of the board has basically put TR in a no win situation. He's too cheap if he picks a pitcher that does well but wasn't great in the first place and nobody would have given him a pass if his 30-50M signing flopped (even if you say that you would).

[diehardtwinsfan]

As they said in ET - This is reality Greg. We are talking the Minnesota Twins here. In over 20 years the only significant free agent pitcher the Twins have signed was Jack Morris - because he wanted to pitch at home. Other than that I would say #2 would be Kenny Rogers. The Twins simply have never taken chances on free agents, period. What's the biggest free agent contract of a non-Twins player ever - it is for Willingham, 3 years, $21 million and that's both the highest cost and longest contract. Of the pitchers mentioned, Phill Hughes is making $7,150,000 - he won't be taking a cut. Ervin Santana is making $13,000,000 - he won't be taking a cut. Tim Lincecum is making $22,250,000 - he is unlikely to take a cut, even if his talent seems to be declining. Johan is making $24,644,708 - he might take a cut, maybe $20,000,000 on a one-year deal. And Josh Johnson - he's making $13,750,000 - he might be a buy low guy because of injury, but he won't take much of a cut and will certainly want a bunch of incentives on a one-year deal to rebuild reputation. All of these guys are already making more than the $7,000,000 a year that Willingham took in.

 

Expect Correia back and probably Pelfrey. You might be able to sign a guy like Kazmir, who signed a minor league deal with Cleveland, but at least somewhat re-established himself and might sign a Correia type deal. Hughes might be in play, but I think too many teams with more assets they are willing to use will make offers higher than what Twins will be willing to pay.

 

Ryan is more likely to trade. Maybe go after another buy low guy like Jeremy Hellickson who didn't have a great year. I don't know if there is a trade fit there, but it's something to think about. I don't even know if we have any chips available that anyone would want.

 

Not to pick nits, but Lincecum will be unemployed if he thinks he's not taking a paycut. Not even the Yankees or Dodgers would be willing to shell that money out on him given the risk.

[old nurse]

So are you saying the scouts saw upside in Correia and Pelfrey, or they saw no upside in any free agents? Either way they were wrong. Time to hire a data team comparable to the rest of the league so free agent reliance isn't nearly 100% on the scouts.

 

So then you don't believe that Fangraphs is not correct in that Correia and Pelfrey are pitching to better value than their contracts? I do not know what Ryan was thinking when he hired these players. I can guess, and it is only a meaningless guess, that coming off from a season where the entire pitching staff blew up he was hoping to find a starter that would last the season at a mostly quality start level.

I said nothing about the two in response to your post. My bad also in that I should have said the Talent Acquisition Team, not scouts as I really have no idea in total who works for the front office.

[AlwaysinModeration]

It is true that 3/21 is the largest FA signing the Twins have ever made. However, before two years ago, the argument "the Twins will never sign a 3/21 contract because they never have" would have been valid.

 

It never happens...until it happens. Last off-season, everyone in the world, including TR, knew the Twins would not compete. The Twins are getting close, though, now.

 

TR signed Willingham when Cuddyer and Kubel walked. This year, two other long-term organization guys (Morneau and Blackburn) are leaving. I think we will see a "record" FA signing by the Twins this off-season, and it will clearly be a SP.

 

I would love to see Lincecum (like the Liriano 2.0 comp), but I think Hughes (previously linked to Twins), and Josh Johnson (MN connection) are much more likely.

 

Wild guesses:

Hughes 3/33

Johnson 2/15+ incentives

[old nurse]

I am all about Lincecum. His velocity is down but all of the important numbers (if you dig deeper) are where they need to be. Even walks (2.5 K:BB ratio). He's the type of pitcher that has a chance to pull a Liriano (regardless of his success it was time to part with him).

 

At the end of the day (like last year) I'm all for spending 3yrs and 35-40 on the best pitcher the Twins can buy. I'm against the Edwin Jackson and Mark Buehrle level contracts. 4+ yr contracts for guys that are unlikely to have a sub 4 ERA (Buehrle could come close) over the life of the contract. No thanks.

 

 

 

this is not how fangraphs values players. Fangraph valuations (like Correia's 5.6M) is calculated based on his WAR which is calculated using FIP. Each win (WAR) is worth about 4.5M. correia was an unimpressive signing but at the end of the day he is performing as well as a majority of the pitchers signed for <60M (basically everyone except Anibal and Zack).

 

I think most of the board has basically put TR in a no win situation. He's too cheap if he picks a pitcher that does well but wasn't great in the first place and nobody would have given him a pass if his 30-50M signing flopped (even if you say that you would).

 

The valuation of how much each WAR is is based on what a free agent gets in contract. Their belief is that only a free agent is true market price for talent.

"In general, we can say that the market price of a win is the mean of the dollars per win handed out to free agents in any given year." From the site. So, if many of the free agents are having bad first year with the tram, that would drive the $/WAR up. See Dempster,, Hamilton, BJ Upton among those driving up the cost per WAR.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Like others said, I think we can safely assume that pitching is going to need improved for the next wave, but I don't think you break the FA budget to go out and get it right now when you don't know what else is going to be improved and you don't know who's going to stick. I'm guessing there will be one big FA signing. I want Tanaka personally, but I'd be happy with Hughes as well. Pass on Linci and pass on Santana (to an ML contract at least).

 

Next year's rotation: FA, Gibson, Worley, Deduno (if healthy), and Correia.

[AlwaysinModeration]

The valuation of how much each WAR is is based on what a free agent gets in contract. Their belief is that only a free agent is true market price for talent.

"In general, we can say that the market price of a win is the mean of the dollars per win handed out to free agents in any given year." From the site. So, if many of the free agents are having bad first year with the tram, that would drive the $/WAR up. See Dempster,, Hamilton, BJ Upton among those driving up the cost per WAR.

 

This is looking at it backwards. Impending free agents are evaluated based on their track record, position, and importantly, their age. The expected WAR for the next year is then calculated, and for each subsequent year of the contract, you factor in .5 WAR decrease. Multiply the total WAR over the going rate per WAR to get the contract.

 

After an off-season, you can calculate the going rate based on what was given out to see if it is increasing. Has been 4.5-5/WAR for a few years.

 

 

Willingham got 3/21. That's about 4.5-5 WAR. He was probably valued at 2 WAR in 2012, 1.5 in 2013, and 1 WAR for 2013.

 

If players perform badly in their first year of a FA contract, perhaps their WAR valuation was high...or they had a bad year. If anything, it would decrease the going price per WAR.

 

However, with more TV revenue to spend in baseball, I expect the going rate to increase this off-season.

[old nurse]

This is looking at it backwards. Impending free agents are evaluated based on their track record, position, and importantly, their age. The expected WAR for the next year is then calculated, and for each subsequent year of the contract, you factor in .5 WAR decrease. Multiply the total WAR over the going rate per WAR to get the contract.

 

After an off-season, you can calculate the going rate based on what was given out to see if it is increasing. Has been 4.5-5/WAR for a few years.

 

 

Willingham got 3/21. That's about 4.5-5 WAR. He was probably valued at 2 WAR in 2012, 1.5 in 2013, and 1 WAR for 2013.

 

If players perform badly in their first year of a FA contract, perhaps their WAR valuation was high...or they had a bad year. If anything, it would decrease the going price per WAR.

 

However, with more TV revenue to spend in baseball, I expect the going rate to increase this off-season.

 

It is how Eangraphs calculates it, it is what people quoted. Like any metric devised, it is not perfect.

 

Having a bad year when they calculate WAR from what you are being paid raises the value per WAR. If you are paid like you were projected to be a 4 WAR player and put forth 1.2, the price per WAR goes up. If you have a 7 million dollar contract and have a negative WAR, the price per WAR goes up.

[kab21]

The valuation of how much each WAR is is based on what a free agent gets in contract. Their belief is that only a free agent is true market price for talent.

"In general, we can say that the market price of a win is the mean of the dollars per win handed out to free agents in any given year." From the site. So, if many of the free agents are having bad first year with the tram, that would drive the $/WAR up. See Dempster,, Hamilton, BJ Upton among those driving up the cost per WAR.

 

The value/WAR is set for the year once those contracts are signed. This is from a few years ago but they don't use a constantly changing set of stats to calculate value. It's either based on previous WAR's as stated here or possibly on their set of projections if they changed it. Dempster, Hamilton, and Upton tanking have no weighting on Correia's WAR value at fangraphs.

 

To calculate this, I did a three year weighted average of their win values, then multiplied that value by .95 to factor in aging and estimate what teams considered considered a player’s true talent win rate for 2008.

 

Yet I'm not sure how Correia can rationally be considered an overpay at this point by anyone.

 

If you don't want to use fangraphs WAR valuations to determine Correia's value then let's use my ballpark valuations since FIP isn't a perfect valuation method. I have posted this in another discussion stating that I think 180+ innings of the following are worth:

 

4.50 ERA - 5M/yr

4.00 ERA - 10+M/y

3.50 ERA - 15-20M/yr

<3.00 ERA - 20-infinity/yr

 

Right now Correia is solidly worth well more than 5M/yr and it's not because he is having a lucky season. The problem with Correia is that he was the best pitcher the Twins added last offseason but I think most expected Worley to be better. there is absolutely no way at this point that anyone can consider it a bad signing unless they expected him to perform like pitchers getting 50+M contracts in free agency.

[beckmt]

Lincecum will probably get a qualifying offer (about $14 mil). It is the price of pitching these days. That will put him beyond the Twins range(plus the second round draft pick in a deep draft). Johnson and Hughes would be just OK. Deduno looks like he is heading for surgery, so Twins need much more starting pitching.

[nicksaviking]

I think most of the board has basically put TR in a no win situation. He's too cheap if he picks a pitcher that does well but wasn't great in the first place and nobody would have given him a pass if his 30-50M signing flopped (even if you say that you would).

 

I've said multiple times I won't blame Ryan if he signs a quality free agent who flops. I just want to see the he has the fortitude to do so. Unless we're talking a $100 million, it won't damage the rebuild at all and I'd congratulate him on finally growing a pair.

 

So then you don't believe that Fangraphs is not correct in that Correia and Pelfrey are pitching to better value than their contracts?

 

Correia? Maybe equal to his contract. Maybe. Pelfrey? Are you kidding? It's a nice 11 game stretch but that's moot. Pelfrey's early season incompetence is a huge reason why the Twins found themselves in such a huge hole to start the season. The season's over and no matter what he does from now on out he cannot make up for the terrible position his poor pitching put the club early on.

 

Let's say he IS worth his $4 million, the starts that would be worth that cash would have all come long after the Twins' season was lost, his early season games would surely be considered negative value. With the Twins out of the playoff hunt since May, if a quality free agent came available in July would the Twins even consider signing him for $4 million in a lost season?

[Guest USAFChief]

I agree with the post above about that another avenue the Twins might consider is taking on a contract or two. Buehrle is way overpriced, for example, but if you can get him on a two year deal, for basically nothing but money, that's worth considering. Similar pitchers who are free agents are not going to sign two year deals.

 

Were I GM, I'd be talking to teams with disappointing seasons and large payrolls and find out just how interested they are in freeing up payroll.

[Oxtung]

correia was an unimpressive signing but at the end of the day he is performing as well as a majority of the pitchers signed for <60M (basically everyone except Anibal and Zack).

 

I think most of the board has basically put TR in a no win situation. He's too cheap if he picks a pitcher that does well but wasn't great in the first place and nobody would have given him a pass if his 30-50M signing flopped (even if you say that you would).

 

I like the Edwin Jackson signing by the Cubs. I would be happy if he were a Twin currently. I also don't have a problem with the Nishioka signing. They both were logical attempts to find a long term solution to an area of need. It is disappointing it didn't work out but that doesn't mean the signing was wrong to begin with.

 

Yet I'm not sure how Correia can rationally be considered an overpay at this point by anyone.

 

It's extremely easy. The over pay isn't his $4.5MM salary it's because he was signed for 2 years. Players of Correia's skill level are available every off season on 1 year deals.

[ThePuck]

Since I'm not a Twins beancounter, it doesn't mean much to me that we get a little more value for a 4.5M player. I'd rather we get 12M value from a guy we pay 16M than get 6M value from a guy we pay 5M...because that guy is better.

[AlwaysinModeration]

Since I'm not a Twins beancounter, it doesn't mean much to me that we get a little more value for a 4.5M player. I'd rather we get 12M value from a guy we pay 16M than get 6M value from a guy we pay 5M...because that guy is better.

 

It matters if you have a budget and you are really trying to squeeze every bit of excess value you can out of every penny. However, if you sort of have a budget, and you don't spend anywhere near that budget, the extra value you squeeze out of the Correias and Doumits of the world pale in comparison to the value you could have squeezed out of the money you left on the table.

[Jim H]

Since I'm not a Twins beancounter, it doesn't mean much to me that we get a little more value for a 4.5M player. I'd rather we get 12M value from a guy we pay 16M than get 6M value from a guy we pay 5M...because that guy is better.

 

I agree with this 100%. Unfortunately, that is not what most people are talking about. If you can get a Sanchez, well yeah, he might not be worth the money but he will likely still be good. What I take exception to is going out and way overpaying an Edwin Jackson when you know he isn't really all that likely to be any better than a Correia. The only place Jackson has really outperformed Correia over the last 5 years is strikeouts. That gets him more years and a lot more money per year, but doesn't really make him better, or likely to be better than a lot of non strike out pitchers.

 

I have no problem with the signing or Correia or Pelfrey this year or even if they are back next year. What I think the Twins will need to do, is try to identify the next Kazmir or someone like him, a guy who turns out to be good whether it because he has recovered from injury or some other reason. I hope they can try for a high upside guy who is more of a sure thing, and that they manage to get him. But if that can't happen, I would like to see some money invested in a guy or guys who have real upside, not just perceived upside like Jackson.

[Oxtung]

I agree with this 100%. Unfortunately, that is not what most people are talking about. If you can get a Sanchez, well yeah, he might not be worth the money but he will likely still be good. What I take exception to is going out and way overpaying an Edwin Jackson when you know he isn't really all that likely to be any better than a Correia. The only place Jackson has really outperformed Correia over the last 5 years is strikeouts. That gets him more years and a lot more money per year, but doesn't really make him better, or likely to be better than a lot of non strike out pitchers.

 

I have no problem with the signing or Correia or Pelfrey this year or even if they are back next year. What I think the Twins will need to do, is try to identify the next Kazmir or someone like him, a guy who turns out to be good whether it because he has recovered from injury or some other reason. I hope they can try for a high upside guy who is more of a sure thing, and that they manage to get him. But if that can't happen, I would like to see some money invested in a guy or guys who have real upside, not just perceived upside like Jackson.

 

Your premise is just not true. Edwin Jackson is a better pitcher by almost every statistic. You really don't need much more proof than their contracts but just to be clear here is the last 5 years as you suggest.

 

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]

[/TD]

[TD]ERA

ERA+

Avg IP

Edwin Jackson

4.06

105

199

Kevin Correia

4.73

81

156

[/TABLE]

 

 

Edwin Jackson isn't an ace, he isn't even a #2 starter but then he isn't being paid like one either. He is the definition of a #3 starter. A guy who take the ball and give you 200 IP with an average ERA. The fact that he has not pitched well this season shouldn't diminish the fact that he is significantly better than Correia and Pelfrey historically. I would also put my faith in Jackson to be better than both again next season.

[MarshalltheIrish]

Of these four, I think we should go for Lincecum. Giants don't want him back, and he would not only easily be the best pitcher on our staff, but would excite fans and give them something to at least hope to enjoy in the starting rotation. I'd say four years for anywhere from $44 to $52 million. In any case, this is a pretty meager FA market. Given those circumstances and weighing the few options we have, though, I think Timmy would be the best choice.

[jorgenswest]

I can't see Lincecum choosing to sign with the Twins. I don't think he will see this as his last contract, so the place he elects to play will be very important for his next contract.

[guppie]

Before anybody starts talking about new blood, why don't we take a look at the elephant in the room. No pitchers EVER get better after coming here, yet some improve after they leave. FIRE ANDERSON??!! YES.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Since I'm not a Twins beancounter, it doesn't mean much to me that we get a little more value for a 4.5M player. I'd rather we get 12M value from a guy we pay 16M than get 6M value from a guy we pay 5M...because that guy is better.

 

Hard to argue with this, honestly. I'm going to be mighty disappointed if Ryan doesn't pick up at least one guy who has a chance to impact the 2014 squad.

 

I was fine with punting last season because the Twins aren't close to ready. But now, the payroll is going to drop to $60m-ish and help is on the horizon.

[Trevor0333]

I like Lincecum but he will be offered arbitration which will be in the 14 mill range which is a fair price for him. Problem is that meants the Twins will have to give up a 1st rnd pick to sign him which will definitely not happen.

[Trevor0333]

Isn't J. Johnsons velocity still way down? I think I'd prefer Hughes but he has not been able to stay healthy at all. Missing a large chunk of time with a elbow or shoulder is one thing but he is always hurt with something.

 

Myself I very much prefer going after Tim Hudson & Colby Lewis.

[Thegrin]

No pitchers EVER get better after coming here, yet some improve after they leave.

This may be the perception but it is not factual. Many players improve under Anderson's coaching. Recently we have seen Diamond, Deduno and Burton come from other organizations and pitch well for the Twins. The ultimate success story was Johan Santana. If Anderson was incompetent there is no way we would have the excellent bullpen we now have.

Tonight they announced a crowd of 33,000 fans. Twins fans deserve a competitive team. I doubt the pitching staff will be improved through Free Agency. Good pitchers simply don't want to pitch for a losing team, and other teams will always match or outbid the Twins when they are trying to sign a good Free Agent pitcher.

[Alex]

Tonight they announced a crowd of 33,000 fans. Twins fans deserve a competitive team.

 

I actually thought the blue and white was pretty heavy and it sounded like we were playing in Toronto some of the time. It was also a weekend and the Twins have had some successful callups this month, though. But I agree.

 

I doubt the pitching staff will be improved through Free Agency. Good pitchers simply don't want to pitch for a losing team, and other teams will always match or outbid the Twins when they are trying to sign a good Free Agent pitcher.

 

Maybe, but I think the Twins could at least help themselves by trying to create the perception of winning. When your big FA signing is Kevin Correa, it really doesn't look like you're all that interested in competing -- or if you are -- you look incompetent. I'm not saying they spend Toronto/LA/Yankee money but everyone knows they have a top farm system. I'd think that future potential could draw something, but the Twins need to make it look like they're interested in outside help and that they want to be competitive sooner rather than being content to wait.

[stringer bell]

It seems to me that every prospective free agent starter falls in one of the following four groups: 1) costs too much 2) not that good 3) won't come here 4) injury prone

 

I guess the answer is to not sign anyone.