Article: Twins' Rotation Is Out of Whack

[PseudoSABR]

I get that they've been good value for what the Twins paid them. They would have been better signings for a team that needed to round out an already good rotation. For the Twins, the upgrade from Walters and Worley to Pelfrey and Correia is significant, but not enough to make the team a contender.

Right, but that's kind of my point about why it probably wasn't prudent to sign Grienke or Sanchez last offseason...

[Nick Nelson]

I know it goes against conventional wisdom, but the bottom the barrel guys, Correia and Pelfry (imagine what his numbers would like if the Twins actually let him rehab in the minors), are two of the better SP FA signings from last season, especially in terms of cost. The list of better SP FAs would be pretty short, and likely far more expensive.

Correia and Pelfrey do nothing for me. Both were essentially awful for the first four months of the season and now have been serviceable during garbage time, when the games are meaningless and they can't be flipped for anything of value. They are below average pitchers who serve no real purpose considering this team's circumstances and needs.

 

And plenty of free agents from last offseason's crop have been better. To name a few (non Greinke/Sanchez category): Liriano, Feldman, Santana, Colon, Guthrie, Villanueva, Kazmir, etc. I'm not going to give the Twins credit for signing mediocre veterans who turned out to be mediocre; the strategy never served any purpose to begin with.

 

So we'd be closer to a 75 win team? I just don't think the go-sign-an-ace narrative is very viable when the team is this far from competing.

You know why they're so far from competing? Because they continue to not get any better. The way you turn around a horrible product is through incremental improvements and gradually repairing problematic areas. No one is suggesting that the Twins should simply "go-sign-an-ace" and automatically turn into a contender, and you know that. They need to find good pitchers. Correia and Pelfrey are not good pitchers and the fact that you're actually trying to paint them as quality signings just shows how depressingly low our standards have become.

[ALessKosherScott]

The Twins still have a rotation? Who knew?

[ThePuck]

The Twins still have a rotation? Who knew?

 

For those who didn't know the Twins still have a rotation, all they need to do is go look at team starting pitching stats, and look at the bottom of the list for pretty much every important stat. That's where you'll find them.

[ericchri]

I actually think Grienke or Sanchez would have been a great off-season move as we desperately need an actual good pitcher on this staff. It isn't that they immediately make us a contender all by themself, but more that we actually have a good pitcher on the staff as we transition to the new generation of players. We're basically betting the farm on the farm (sorry about that) actually saving this team in a couple years without any legitimate proven starting pitching to help take some of the pressure off all the newbies.

 

I'm not arguing that we had a legitimate chance at signing Sanchez, though I assume if we'd offered whatever he got from Detroit we'd have had a chance. I do think that if he'd signed with us that it would would have been a good move for the team, though. It would have been massively beneficial to have a consistently decent starter on the team through the next few years, regardless of his perceived overpaidness (yeah, not a real word). How good do Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Hicks, Rosario, Dozier, Mauer, etc... need to be in a couple years if our starters are Diamond, Worley, Gibson, Meyer, Hendriks?* Wouldn't it be nice to slip Sanchez into place for one of those names so you could say with fair certainty, "he'll be good, hopefully 2 of the other four turn out to be decent."

 

 

*Not claiming that to be the most likely starting 5, just a possible based on the notion of not signing anyone right now.

[Kwak]

Starting with the theme of the thread--Rotation out of Whack--it has been out of whack for awhile. The Twins haven't had anyone who could be classified as a #1 since the emergence of Santana. After he left it was a series of journeymen with the hope that someone would "jump-up" to the upper-tier, but mostly just to dominate lesser teams/pitchers with a good-hitting line-up. This line-up doesn't produce 800+ runs and the rotation has fallen below the level of journeymen by the use of a very flawed philosophy. Much fanfare was made last year by the promise of three new pitchers. I have yet to read any statement by the Twins committing to any improvement over the 2013 staff. Ryan has stated that Gardenhire shouldn't be blamed because he wasn't provided enough talent--but there has been only silence with regard to providing a significant upgrade over the present talent level. At best we are told that the minor leaguers are praise worthy though the most recent promotions have done little to justify that claim. The most praised MiLers are position players--so how does the rotation improve? Wishin' and hopin' to steal another Johan Santana is not a viable option.

[frightwig]

Collusion? That would have had to be after the 1986 season. So in theory the Twins could still have signed him after 1990, but who knows.

 

Right. After the 1986 season, according to Chadwin, Morris' agent proposed to the Yankees a one-year arbitration deal. The idea was that other owners wouldn't object to Morris changing teams if his salary were determined by arbitrator. Then, once in a Yankees uniform, Morris could sign a multi-year extension for the really big bucks. Had this plan all worked out, Morris very well might (I should say) have been signed with the Yankees through the 1991 season. The plan fell through after the other owners and Peter Ueberroth leaned on Steinbrenner to stay in line. (The previous winter, Steinbrenner also withdrew an offer to Carlton Fisk when Jerry Reinsdorf called to complain.)

 

Why didn't New York sign Morris when he was available after the 1990 season? Maybe his 15-18 record and 4.51 ERA that year (and 6-14, 4.86 ERA in 1989) had something to do with it.

[Steve Lein]

Actually, if the Twins had a rotation of true MLB 4-5 starters, they'd be close to .500.

 

This lot is more like 6-7 starters.

 

I don't necessarily disagree with you on the 6-7 statement as that's pretty much what I was getting at, but that's not actually how I see #4 and #5 guys translating to W-L columns. A #5 guy is usually only slightly better than replacement level if not replacement level (or worse in Twins case), a term which translates to a .320 winning percentage per Baseball-reference, or less than .300 per Fangraphs.

 

Some of these guys are still MLB caliber pitchers, just not anything above back-end starter types.

 

To me a pretty much every +1.0 above 0.0 in WAR is a good rough estimate as to what type of pitcher you have. (i.e.: 0-1 WAR = #5, 1-2 WAR = #4, 2-3 WAR = #3, 3-4 WAR = #2, 4-5 = #1, 5+ = Ace - over a full season's workload)

 

The Twins leader (per fangraphs) is Pelfrey at +1.6.

[orangevening]

People need to realise it takes two to tangle. A FA has to want to pitch here or take a lot more $ than he is actually worth. We maybe looking at FA pitchers like Pelf and KC until the wave of position players come up. I think Ryan is just waiting for that anyway to sign someone big.

[frightwig]

Why didn't New York sign Morris when he was available after the 1990 season? Maybe his 15-18 record and 4.51 ERA that year (and 6-14, 4.86 ERA in 1989) had something to do with it.

 

You know, I don't recall reading or hearing anyone say so before, but when the Twins signed Morris, they really were just taking a 1-year flyer on a big-name veteran who hadn't been good the previous couple years. Except that time it really paid off.

[deanlambrecht]

Those who are freaked about Pelfrey need to consider that this is his first full post-TJ season, and that he came back from recovery earlier than (I'm reasonably sure) any other pitcher previously.

 

I'm not saying we should bet the farm on Pelfrey, but he's being discounted too quickly. If we can re-sign him at a reasonable cost he's as good or better a gamble than any of the others in our wreck of a rotation.

[ashbury]

I think the problem with the Pelfrey signing is that the Twins paid him a decent major league salary while absorbing the risk of his comeback season. If he performed above expectations in what was anticipated to be another lost season then he would likely sign with someone else in 2014 when maybe the young hitters would start to populate the roster, while if he had a season like actually occurred (or worse) the Twins didn't really get their money's worth. Lose-lose rather than win-win.

[Marta Shearing]

[quote name=Shane

Wahl]Pelfrey? Pelfrey? He has been merely ok for the past month after being TERRIBLE for much of the season. I am flabbergasted every time someone mentions resigning complete mediocrity or worse for millions of bucks. The Twins can toss that out there for the league minimum and also hope that one or two of them turns the corner (Gibson and Worley or Hendriks).

He's done OK first year back from TJ surgery. Finally got his era under 5. I think he's been much better the 2nd half. I think he could be a solid middle of the rotation guy, but undoubtedly will be too expensive for "bargain shopper" Terry Ryan. I'd love to see Pelfrey back.

[PseudoSABR]

I'm not going to give the Twins credit for signing mediocre veterans who turned out to be mediocre; the strategy never served any purpose to begin with.

I think you're dismissing the value of having pitchers who aren't AAAA who can put up league average numbers over a significant amount of innings. We'd be a lot worse without them. More, I'm not sure what realistic scenario would earn the FO credit; the standard seems unfairly lofty.

 

You know why they're so far from competing? Because they continue to not get any better. The way you turn around a horrible product is through incremental improvements and gradually repairing problematic areas. No one is suggesting that the Twins should simply "go-sign-an-ace" and automatically turn into a contender, and you know that. They need to find good pitchers. Correia and Pelfrey are not good pitchers and the fact that you're actually trying to paint them as quality signings just shows how depressingly low our standards have become.

Well, I guess I'm not really sure what you think they should have done. Pelfry and Correia may not be difference makers but they were quality signings; I'm not sure why its anathema to admit that. Was it enough, of course not, but whatever they would have done wouldn't have been enough to overcome all the setbacks they had with quite a few young players.

[Kwak]

He's done OK first year back from TJ surgery. Finally got his era under 5. I think he's been much better the 2nd half. I think he could be a solid middle of the rotation guy, but undoubtedly will be too expensive for "bargain shopper" Terry Ryan. I'd love to see Pelfrey back.

 

Amen. If Pelf has a solid Setember his asking price will be $10MM/season and multi-years. I do not see Ryan chasing to that level. Ryan might go as far as a "Pavano contract" for Pelfrey, but not $10MM a season.

[Guest USAFChief]

Rather than focus on what they should have done, I'm trying to figure out what they should do.

 

And IMO its pretty clear, if they want to get better in the near future, they need to bring in better starting pitching. Asking Doug Pelfrey or KC to round out an already good staff is one thing. Thinking that level of addition is all you need is another.

 

They passed on adding difference makers the past couple of seasons. OK, to me that was a mistake, but its too late to change. But this winter, and next winter, I think they need to do something different.

 

I'm getting to the point where I cringe every time I read "decline phase player" because I think it's lazy analysis that lumps groups of players together instead of considering individuals, which every MLB player is. But even if every player over age 30 is destined to fail within a year or two, I don't much care at this point. I don't think the Twins can succeed with internal pitching assets, so in my mind they can either do nothing and fail for sure, or take some chances and probably fail. I prefer the latter. It will cost money. So what?

[SeanS7921]

The Twins have improved or most likely they have. They will probably get to 70 or 72 wins this year. 4-6 game improvement. They have put together a solid bullpen and have some good utility players. Then they have a lot of hitting prospects plus Joe Mauer. Only issue is the starting rotation and they probably will have a guaranteed contracts of 46 million or so next year. That's assuming they don't trade Willingham this off-season which they probably should do for whatever they can get. The Twins have a top 3 farm system and payroll flexability. I assume they will at least spend 60 million for 2014 if not 65 or 70. That said Pelfrey makes sense. Of all the B level starting pitchers out there Correia and Pelfrey have been better than most of those guys. You need next year to see what Gibson can do and give try outs to Meyer and May. You also want to see what Sano and perhaps Buxton can do. Not to mention Josmil, Arcia and to give Hicks another chance. Then along with Mauer, Dozier (can't believe I said that) and Plouffe and the bullpen you have a solid core. If you get to 78-82 wins next year you can push that payroll with the final pieces to make a run in 2015. The young talent may be so good that they even may really be improved in 2014 and can also deal for starting pitcher mid-season.

[Thegrin]

Random thoughts while reading the comments on "Rotation out of whack".

 

*

The way you turn around a horrible product is through incremental improvements and gradually repairing problematic areas.

The Twins improved their relief pitching, watched Perkins turn into a legitimate closer and have gotten excellent middle infield defense. Their hitting regressed due to down seasons by Willingham and Doumit and the non-development of Plouffe as well as the collective failure of their starting pitchers.

 

*If you were Anibal Sanchez, would you have signed with the Twins ? I think not. Besides, A. Sanchez has had 17 Quality Starts while Correia has had 15 QS. (Ervin Santana has had 20 QS.)

 

*Look at the Toronto Blue Jays. They invested big on starting pitching (Mark Buehrle -$12 M, RA Dickey - $5 M) and they have 56 Quality Starts for the year, the same as the Twins.

 

*Pelfrey has been throwing 94+ even in the late innings. We haven't had a pitcher except Liriano who could do that.

 

*Ryan was trying to field a team that could possibly be a .500 team and keep the interest of the fans into September. I know, that idea makes some people crazy, but that is what I believe. It didn't happen and we re working with ideas because of the results.

 

* The only way we are going to get a quality pitcher from outside the Twins organization is with a trade. This means that one or more of our prospects needs to prove himself as a big leaguer so that he can get something good. This means goodbye to Hicks or Arcia or Plouffe or Pinto or Hermann or Dozier after a successful 2014 season.

[Thegrin]

Here are the 21 starters that either pitched for the Twins in 2013 or are in the minors with their birthdays. Although some can be dismissed out of hand but they are all possibilities.

 

Correia - 8/24/1980 33

Blackburn - 02/24/1982 31

Duensing - 2/22/1983 30

Deduno - 7/2/1983 30

Kyle Davies - 09/09/1983 30

Pelfrey - 1/14/1984 29

DeVries - 2/12/1985 29

Walters - 03/12/1985 28

Swarzak - 9/10/1985 27

Albers - 10/6/1985 27

Diamond - 7/30/1986 27

Worley - 9/25/1987 25

Gibson - 10/23/1987 25

Pressley - 12/15/1988 24

Darnell - 02/02/1989 24

Hendriks - 2/10/1989 24

Hernandez - 4/12/1989 24

Dean - 05/25/1989 24

May - 9/23/1989 23

Hermsen - 12/1/1989 23

Myers - 01/03/1990 23

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Great 4th post!

blindeke makes a good point, while I want TR to make big moves (plural) realistically we will probably see zero "big" moves and might see one medium move and one or two mediocre stop-gap type moves.

[TheLeviathan]

Seems to me it's not very surprising that you barely get better when you barely upgrade the clear weak link of your team.

 

I'd also suggest it will be equally unsurprising if they follow the same pattern again this offseason with similar results next year. Player production ebbs and flows, this season wasn't lost because a few guys took steps back (most of whom were talked about at length as high risk players to do exactly that) - it was lost because we never took getting better seriously.

 

If the best you can hope for out of your acquisitions is mediocrity and you see that as a winning strategy, it says a lot for the quality of the product you are augmenting in the first place.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Those who are freaked about Pelfrey need to consider that this is his first full post-TJ season, and that he came back from recovery earlier than (I'm reasonably sure) any other pitcher previously.

 

I'm not saying we should bet the farm on Pelfrey, but he's being discounted too quickly. If we can re-sign him at a reasonable cost he's as good or better a gamble than any of the others in our wreck of a rotation.

He's a career 4.42 era at age 29. Pitchers don't improve after TJ. Zero upside over 4 other rotation members, so what if the loser TR brings up from AAA is worse, if the guy has any upside it's better than nothing. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

Seems to me it's not very surprising that you barely get better when you barely upgrade the clear weak link of your team.

 

I'd also suggest it will be equally unsurprising if they follow the same pattern again this offseason with similar results next year. Player production ebbs and flows, this season wasn't lost because a few guys took steps back (most of whom were talked about at length as high risk players to do exactly that) - it was lost because we never took getting better seriously.

 

If the best you can hope for out of your acquisitions is mediocrity and you see that as a winning strategy, it says a lot for the quality of the product you are augmenting in the first place.

Amen Brother! 90 losses 3 years in a row should tell you something... It ain't working, try something new!

[nicksaviking]

He's a career 4.42 era at age 29. Pitchers don't improve after TJ. Zero upside over 4 other rotation members, so what if the loser TR brings up from AAA is worse, if the guy has any upside it's better than nothing. Nothing ventured, nothing gained.

 

Plenty of pitchers have improved after Tommy John surgery, and aside from the guys in AAA, only Gibson has any upside.

 

I feel I need to refute those points even though I agree that I don't want Pelfrey back. This team doesn't need any more back-end pitchers like Pelfrey and if they sign one more starter who can't sniff a league average K% Terry Ryan needs to step aside and let a less stubborn and more ingenuitive GM take over.

[Shane Wahl]

There is STILL talk about signing Mike Pelfrey again? This is still occurring?

 

Throw money at Ervin Santana. And throw money but 1 year at Lincecum. I would hope to get one of them.

 

I am not as pessimistic as so many around here about Gibson. The Twins handled him wrong this year. I, from day one, wrote about how they needed to limit his innings in AAA and give him 100 innings for the Twins. Now they are left with a bad performance and doubts. What? Would people really rather have Mike Pelfrey pitching than Kyle Gibson next year. I would rather have LIAM HENDRIKS pitching than Mike Pelfrey. There is no point in re-signing bad pitchers for millions of bucks.

[stringer bell]

Here's my take: Probably pretty obvious, but this is a rotation like a lot of others in MLB, but lacking guys at the top. Most teams are searching for guys to fill out their rotations with guys like the Twins have but they have an established couple of arms they know will be there. The Twins need someone to be signed or step up who will be a top of the line starter and if they want to be serious about improving, they need two guys. Sign Hughes, sign another guy (I'd like to see what Pelfrey can do next year) and if it doesn't work, sign two more guys next year. The Twins can be players in free agency and if the position player talent develops like many scouts think it will, they certainly should be players for something more than bargain-basement starters.

[Mike Sixel]

If Sanchez gets them to 75 wins, and Sano adds 3 wins over Plouffe, and you sign a legit SP this year, and Gibson isn't awful, you are at 81 wins, with nothing from LF, CF, RF, DH being better. So, ya, getting Sanchez would have gotten this team closer to being good. Waiting for a future that never comes* is not going to work.

 

*per Torii and Johan

[Shane Wahl]

I think they will end up with Hughes. I won't be overjoyed, but it will be an improvement. No more Pelfrey. Why would we ever want to see what "he can do" next year when there really are guys much younger who we need to see what they can do so we can get on with our lives . . .

[exrugger9]

Swarzak deserves a shot next season. I mean, what could it hurt? Provided he stays out of the wrestling ring this winter...

[Mike Sixel]

Swarzak deserves a shot next season. I mean, what could it hurt? Provided he stays out of the wrestling ring this winter...

 

Agreed, I'd give him a shot right now, frankly.