Article: Twins' Rotation Is Out of Whack

[Supfin99]

In 91 the Twins were coming off a terrible year, and signed two high priced FAs and won the world series......you should always be trying to make your team better.

 

Gibson is over 25, he should not be getting a "taste" next year.

Pelfrey, before the injury, was not a very good pitcher, as pointed out above.

 

You can add a good player next year, w/o blocking a legit prospect.

I'm guessing by high priced free agents you mean Jack Morris and Chili Davis? Jack was 36 and signed a 1 yr 3.7 mil deal after not being offered a deal by his longtime team, the Tigers. Chili was 31 and signed a 1 yr 1.8 mil deal. Those kind of signings are fine but I don't think that Garza or Santana are going for 1 yr deals.

[OldTwinky]

I'm only going to speak the obvious here; there is zero chance that the Twins starting pitching is going to be any better next year. It gives me no joy to say this but I just don't think Gibson is as good as we've been told. I don't think May is ever going to be a big league starter and the durability of Meyer has to be in question going forward. Right now it looks like the Twins traded Revere and Span for maybe 1 guy who has a future in the big leagues. This is probably the reason they don't want to fire Gardenhire because when they do switch management they'd like a team good enough to make the new manager look good in his first couple years. If they just replace Gardy and give the new manager the same terrible players then the fans will be calling for the new mangers head after only 1 season. The only path forward for Twins fans is to try your best to not care or support the Twins in any way. At least until ownership changes.

[Mike Sixel]

You need to put those numbers in context.....Morris was one of the 5 highest paid players in baseball when he signed that deal.

 

And the point remains the same, writing off a season before it starts makes no sense, try to get better.

[OldTwinky]

I'm guessing by high priced free agents you mean Jack Morris and Chili Davis? Jack was 36 and signed a 1 yr 3.7 mil deal after not being offered a deal by his longtime team, the Tigers. Chili was 31 and signed a 1 yr 1.8 mil deal. Those kind of signings are fine but I don't think that Garza or Santana are going for 1 yr deals.

True but the Twins could get Ryan Dempster on a 1 year deal.

[ThePuck]

You need to put those numbers in context.....Morris was one of the 5 highest paid players in baseball when he signed that deal.

 

And the point remains the same, writing off a season before it starts makes no sense, try to get better.

 

A team's goal should always be to utilize all avenues to improve their team every chance they get, no matter what....even if they did well the year before. After the 2006 season, instead of identifying problems and aggressively trying to fix them, they dumpster dove for talent. After the 2010 season, they gutted their MI and bullpen and did nothing to improve the team. It's like in both scenarios they expected everything to go the same way it had the year before and said, we can absorb the dropoff in talent cause we won so many games. They did this while other teams were trying to improve their teams....and yet people were surprised about 2007 and 2011? I don't get that.

[ashbury]

Pelfrey? Pelfrey? He has been merely ok for the past month after being TERRIBLE for much of the season.

 

The Twins sat him for a few weeks in June. From that time forward, in 11 starts his ERA is 3.45. League average is 4.34. It's not a full season and he's not Cy Young and I think he's been a little lucky for once; but it's been more than a month and he's been more than merely ok unless your standard for ok excludes most of the league.

[Supfin99]

I think people need to stop getting caught up with free agent pitchers being "worth" the money they'll get. Yes, the Twins are going to have to take risks and overpay if they want to get guys with mid-rotation potential. That's an inevitability, but the team unfortunately has no choice if they want to get better. The alternative is either trading top prospects to get above-average guys from other organizations or limping through another year of ineptitude with the same old bargain-bin trash while preserving that incredibly low payroll. Why does anyone care so much at this point about how money much is spent on acquiring pitching help?

Nick, I'm not hung up on the money. Who is out that you want? Do you want Santana? Do you really trust him to perform for 5 years? I don't trust him to perform next year, let alone for 5. Aaron always goes on and on about this on the podcast. He said the Twins royally screwed up last year by not signing anyone and this basically screwed us for next year too. WHO WERE WE SUPPOSED TO SIGN? Aaron actually used Edwin Jackson as an example. I just about drove off the road. Would anyone be happy if we owed him 4 more years and 44 mil? I think some would because at least we spent money. I don't care about saving the Pohlad's money. I care about winning. Garza is probably the one guy that I would look at because of age and performance but I highly doubt he is coming back to MN. The rest of the group is more junk like Correa and Pelfrey. I am all for getting better but who should we have signed last year and who should we sign this tear that will make us a contender?

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins sat him for a few weeks in June. From that time forward, in 11 starts his ERA is 3.45. League average is 4.34. It's not a full season and he's not Cy Young and I think he's been a little lucky for once; but it's been more than a month and he's been more than merely ok unless your standard for ok excludes most of the league.

 

so his entire career is less important than the last month or so?

 

4 years with an ERA over 4.7

2 years under 3.66

 

I'm not going to mine every stat here.....

[cmb0252]

One of the biggest advantages of building through the draft is the cost control of your young players allows you to spend else where. The problem is out side of Tanaka I just don't see any real arms to get excited about.

 

-Kuroda/Burnett have said they are only pitching for specific teams

-Garza...well we all know the story about Garza

-Ervin Santana is coming off a career year and he is going to be paid like an ace even though his past numbers suggest he is more like a #3

-Johnson was a guy I wanted the Twins to go for before he was shut down....again. One year deal? Sure, but I just don't see him giving us 150+ innings

-Lincy is an interesting one. He isn't the pitcher he use to be and the transition from NL to AL always scares me. If he would sign a 2-3 year deal he might be worth it but he is only a shadow of what he used to be.

-Nolasco, like Santana, is in the middle of a career year and only has two years of under 4.5 ERA ball. Also, as noted above, the transition from NL to AL scares me.

- The rest of the pitchers are the same old retreads no one wants.

 

The 2015 FA market doesn't look like much either. Especially if you believe the rumors that the dodgers and Kershaw are working on an extension. Outside of Tanaka the best option might be to make a trade. Outside of Price, who would cost either Sano/Buxton, I haven't really read many rumors of pitchers who might be on the trade block.

[Mike Sixel]

Nick, I'm not hung up on the money. Who is out that you want? Do you want Santana? Do you really trust him to perform for 5 years? I don't trust him to perform next year, let alone for 5. Aaron always goes on and on about this on the podcast. He said the Twins royally screwed up last year by not signing anyone and this basically screwed us for next year too. WHO WERE WE SUPPOSED TO SIGN? Aaron actually used Edwin Jackson as an example. I just about drove off the road. Would anyone be happy if we owed him 4 more years and 44 mil? I think some would because at least we spent money. I don't care about saving the Pohlad's money. I care about winning. Garza is probably the one guy that I would look at because of age and performance but I highly doubt he is coming back to MN. The rest of the group is more junk like Correa and Pelfrey. I am all for getting better but who should we have signed last year and who should we sign this tear that will make us a contender?

 

 

Signing 1 FA is not about making the team a contendor, necessarily.....it would be nice to sign guys that were not 40% of the worst staff in baseball, wouldn't it? Why does 1 signing have to about getting themover the hump, why can't it be about being better?

 

My name: Anibal Sanchez....that's the guy they should have signed last year. Replace the back of this rotation with him, and you get 6-8 more wins. That puts them at around 80-82 wins right there. Add a decent pitcher this year, add Sano, Ellsbury, boom, you are over 85 wins and in the hunt. Not. That. Hard. If you will spend money.

[snepp]

so his entire career is less important than the last month or so?

 

It didn't look like he was inferring anything like that. It looked like a factual response to a pretty inaccurate assessment of Pelfrey's "last month."

[Mike Sixel]

My bad, I didn't read the context part, just what he wrote....

[matthew0211]

One thing to keep in mind is that Diamond, Deduno, and Worley are out of options next year. Knowing the Twins, they will want to give them all another chance as they won't want to risk losing them throught the outright waivers process during the winter. Hopefully this fact won't keep the Twins from using other avenues to bring in better starters.

[frightwig]

The pitching issue is the main reason I'm still feeling pessimistic about the Twins' near future, even with the crop of promising hitting prospects due to arrive in the next year or two. The free agent pool isn't deep, and we know that Terry Ryan won't be spending big money on the top talent available. It would be nice to get a few "high-upside" bargains, but correctly identifying those guys can be easier said than done. And the crop of Twins pitching prospects in the high minors isn't all that inspiring.

 

Maybe Trevor May and Alex Meyer will stick in the next couple years, if they can refine their command. Kyle Gibson? Before his callup, some hyped him as possibly being the next Brad Radke. Now, after a miserable showing as a 25 year-old rookie, I'd be glad if he can turn into a decent #4 starter for a few years. Vance Worley? He had a 3.88 ERA in 9 starts with Rochester this year, but a 10.1 H/9 and 5.3 K/9. Nobody else at AA and above has a lot of upside.

 

Meanwhile, it's nice to think about Stewart, Berrios, and Gonsalves looking so good in the Rookie and Class A leagues. And, hey, look at Lewis Thorpe! And Fernando Romero! Chih-Wei Hu, too! But then a lot of pitchers who look dominant in the low minors wind up going the way of Alex Wimmers, or worse.

 

If the Twins are lucky, three of the whole lot will stay healthy and become good pitchers within a few years. Let's say, maybe Meyer, Stewart, and Berrios or Gonsalves. Maybe Gibson turns into a decent, cheap, back-end starter for awhile. And maybe next year's draft nets a future star, too? That would be if the club gets lucky--and even then, it will take awhile for all of that to fall into place.

 

If the Twins don't get lucky with the pitching prospects, we might spend the next several years watching Mauer, Sano, and Buxton, etc. tear up the league but still never win anything because the pitching is what it is. If the minor leagues do not develop good major league pitchers, I don't see the Plan B or Plan C.

[Mike Sixel]

matthew, that is my fear....that signing even 1 good FA (of which I am not sure there is one this year) will be viewed as blocking these valuable guys in the minors we might lose.....which baffles the mind. Do other teams care this much about losing replacement level players, when they are flush with them?

[snepp]

Of course ABJ is more than welcome to come back to this thread and clarify it for himself.

 

 

 

 

Which I'm sure he will.

[bird]

My problem with last years FA pitcher signings was the lack of upside. Even if Correia and Pelfrey pitched as well as they could, and admittedly Correia has, they are still 4th or 5th starters. I do not want the Twins to go with that approach again because it does nothing to help this team return to contention. Either sign a good pitcher like Garza, a high upside reclamation project like Josh Johnson and The Freak, or let our in house options see what they can do over a full season. We need to start finding long term options and Correia, Pelfrey, et al are not it.

 

I was OK with them finding their high upside guys two years away in Meyer and May for 2013. The trouble was the lack of successful medium upside guys this year, ie. Worley, Diamond, Gibson, Hendriks. I agree with you, for 2014, finding at least one, and preferably two SP's that immediately are better options than every current option should be the goal. No excuses for 2014. We have trade chips, at least a couple of FA options, and lots of cash to spend.

[frightwig]

I'm guessing by high priced free agents you mean Jack Morris and Chili Davis? Jack was 36 and signed a 1 yr 3.7 mil deal after not being offered a deal by his longtime team, the Tigers. Chili was 31 and signed a 1 yr 1.8 mil deal. Those kind of signings are fine but I don't think that Garza or Santana are going for 1 yr deals.

 

Jack Morris also hoped to sign with the Yankees, according to a book I once read called Those Damn Yankees: The Secret Life of America's Greatest Franchise by Dean Chadwin, but New York passed only because Steinbrenner was playing along with MLB owners' collusion scheme. If the Yankees had been acting like the Yankees at the time, the Twins '91 championship never would have happened.

[Nick Nelson]

I am all for getting better but who should we have signed last year and who should we sign this tear that will make us a contender?

I'm not talking about turning the team into a contender. I'm talking about making the team better -- something they've essentially failed to do in two straight offseasons.

 

I don't doubt that many free agents will fail to pan out, as was the case last year and as is the case every year. It is the duty of the front office, not me or you, to identify pitchers they feel will be productive and worth spending money on. Those pitchers do exist! If the people in charge have no confidence in their own ability to do so, they should step aside and let someone else take over.

 

Sometimes you sign a good player and he fizzles, or gets hurt. Can't be helped. At least you made the effort. But bringing in bottom-of-the-barrel options like Correia and Pelfrey, or simply sitting out of FA because you don't want to take the risk, isn't even an effort. And to not make a real effort is an insult to invested fans.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Jack Morris also hoped to sign with the Yankees, according to a book I once read called Those Damn Yankees: The Secret Life of America's Greatest Franchise by Dean Chadwin, but New York passed only because Steinbrenner was playing along with MLB owners' collusion scheme. If the Yankees had been acting like the Yankees at the time, the Twins '91 championship never would have happened.

 

Collusion? That would have had to be after the 1986 season. So in theory the Twins could still have signed him after 1990, but who knows.

[dougkoebernick]

Mike Pelfrey is looking better as the season goes on - his ERA in July was 3.25 and his ERA in August was 3.60. I would be okay with the Twins resigning him next year with the thought of him being a #3 or #4 guy who will pitch 200 innings (which will in turn help out the bullpen). I think his past history shows that he is capable of doing that.

[PseudoSABR]

I'm not talking about turning the team into a contender. I'm talking about making the team better -- something they've essentially failed to do in two straight offseasons.

Was it really the lack of pitching acquisitions that led to our failure this offseason? It far more to do with players who produced in 2012 failing to produce in 2013 (I'm looking at you Diamond). Counting on Worley and Gibson (which seemed reasonable) also turned out to be foolish. I'm not sure it's realistic to expect a GM to replace an entire starting staff. That the Twins ended up with two reliable (though not sexy) pitchers from the free agent class is something of a boon.

But bringing in bottom-of-the-barrel options like Correia and Pelfrey, or simply sitting out of FA because you don't want to take the risk, isn't even an effort.

I know it goes against conventional wisdom, but the bottom the barrel guys, Correia and Pelfry (imagine what his numbers would like if the Twins actually let him rehab in the minors), are two of the better SP FA signings from last season, especially in terms of cost. The list of better SP FAs would be pretty short, and likely far more expensive.

[Mike Sixel]

One good starter.....that's all we are asking for....not to replace the entire staff. Anibal Sanchez would add 5-6 wins over the bottom of this rotation, easy.

 

I don't care about "in terms of cost", and most other fans don't either, not when there is money to spend.

[Boom Boom]

Was it really the lack of pitching acquisitions that led to our failure this offseason? It far more to do with players who produced in 2012 failing to produce in 2013 (I'm looking at you Diamond). Counting on Worley and Gibson (which seemed reasonable) also turned out to be foolish. I'm not sure it's realistic to expect a GM to replace an entire starting staff. That the Twins ended up with two reliable (though not sexy) pitchers from the free agent class is something of a boon.

I know it goes against conventional wisdom, but the bottom the barrel guys, Correia and Pelfry (imagine what his numbers would like if the Twins actually let him rehab in the minors), are two of the better SP FA signings from last season, especially in terms of cost. The list of better SP FAs would be pretty short, and likely far more expensive.

 

How do you figure? Correia's been OK, Pelfrey's been better lately. But did the Twins really need to spend money on OK pitchers if they were going to lose 90+ games anyway? It looks like a sunk cost to me.

[ashbury]

so his entire career is less important than the last month or so?

 

4 years with an ERA over 4.7

2 years under 3.66

 

I'm not going to mine every stat here.....

 

Scratching my head here - I was responding to a specific line that seemed to be unnecessary hyperbole about the recent past.

[PseudoSABR]

One good starter.....that's all we are asking for....not to replace the entire staff. Anibal Sanchez would add 5-6 wins over the bottom of this rotation, easy.

 

I don't care about "in terms of cost", and most other fans don't either, not when there is money to spend.

So we'd be closer to a 75 win team? I just don't think the go-sign-an-ace narrative is very viable when the team is this far from competing.

 

Part of the problem is that we need five quality starts, not just one ace to compete; if the Twins dump too much money into one rotation slot, they have less money to invest in the rest of the rotation.

 

I could be in on signing the 2015 FA version of Sanchez; as it optimizes the acquisition by aligning it with our emerging core.

[PseudoSABR]

How do you figure? Correia's been OK, Pelfrey's been better lately. But did the Twins really need to spend money on OK pitchers if they were going to lose 90+ games anyway? It looks like a sunk cost to me.

Name ten better SP FA signings. (Heck, name five). Putting their numbers in context of the pitchers that were actually available demonstrates their relative value. Pitching 150 to 200 innings at league average is hardly sunk cost. Those are 300-400 innings that PJ Walters isn't required to pitch.

 

diehard checked out the results of the FA class earlier in the year, and provides a handy list to just how many bad pitchers got contracts.

[snepp]

Those are 300-400 innings that PJ Walters isn't required to pitch.

 

Thank *deity of choice* for small miracles.

[cmb0252]

I'm all for signing some decent starting pitcher but I just don't see any worth over paying for outside of Tanaka. I think the best bet is to trade for an expensive pitcher after a down year or package some prospects together for a solid pitcher. Only problem is I can't really think of many pitchers who fit either of those bills.

[Boom Boom]

Name ten better SP FA signings. (Heck, name five). Putting their numbers in context of the pitchers that were actually available demonstrates their relative value. Pitching 150 to 200 innings at league average is hardly sunk cost. Those are 300-400 innings that PJ Walters isn't required to pitch.

 

diehard checked out the results of the FA class earlier in the year, and provides a handy list to just how many bad pitchers got contracts.

 

I get that they've been good value for what the Twins paid them. They would have been better signings for a team that needed to round out an already good rotation. For the Twins, the upgrade from Walters and Worley to Pelfrey and Correia is significant, but not enough to make the team a contender.