Perspective on Payroll and Direction from Miles Away

[josecordoba]

St Louis also wins by trading prospects for star quality players (Holliday) and then stepping up and signing them for what they deserve. They also go and get quality FAs like Beltran and Chris Carpenter. Those guys are hardly just complimentary players and hardly low paid. Do you see us doing that in the future? If you're going to point to a teams way of doing things as the way for us to go, look at the whole picture.

 

The Twins traded Prospects for Capps, Pavano. Ryan traded prospects for Luis Castillo. The Twins signed Willingham with money set aside for Cuddyer. The Cardinals signed Beltran with money set aside for Pujols. The Twins signed Orlando Hudson when they had a need at Second Base. People don't seem to get that teams needed to have different roster philosophies depending on their timeline to compete.

[ThePuck]

The Twins traded Prospects for Capps, Pavano. Ryan traded prospects for Luis Castillo. The Twins signed Willingham with money set aside for Cuddyer. The Cardinals signed Beltran with money set aside for Pujols. The Twins signed Orlando Hudson when they had a need at Second Base. People don't seem to get that teams needed to have different roster philosophies depending on their timeline to compete.

 

Did Pavano, Castillo and Capps qualify as star quality players when we got them? Regardless of the fact Willingham is the biggest FA contract in Twins history, Willingham was signed at a discount while cutting payroll. If they thought THAT money would sign Cuddy, they were delirious. Hudson was a one year deal for 5M after no one else bit on him...was our need for 2B limited to one season when we signed him?

[jorgenswest]

I see a future of the Twins signing key players when the base of young players is established.

 

The Twins have four years in Target Field. Entering 2010 and 2011 they had reason to believe that they had a team that could put up 90 wins. In 2010 and 2011 they had the 13th and 9th ranked payrolls. They signed Mauer to one of the baseball's largest contracts and Morneau had a big contract.

 

The next time they have a realistic shot at 90 wins, I think they will do the same. They will take the payroll above the median in baseball.

[Guest USAFChief]

A

 

And I think you sign the big free agent when one that you really like is available, NOT when you feel like you should. Not every FA or FA class is equal. Waiting to make big signings based primarily on your timeline is a recipe for coming up empty-handed at best, and overpaying at worst (i.e. signing an older or worse guy than you would prefer, or getting into an unexpected bidding war).

I think this is a point that gets overlooked too often.

 

The "ideal" FA acquisition model and the "real world" model aren't always in alignment.

[glunn]

I think it's amazing after 3 90+ loss seasons that the best path is do nothing because doing something might not work, Just stay the course because this is so much fun.

 

Moderator note -- let's try to be more objective in accurately characterizing the positions of other posters. I don't see where anyone has said that the past 3 years have been fun.

[josecordoba]

Did Pavano, Castillo and Capps qualify as star quality players when we got them? Regardless of the fact Willingham is the biggest FA contract in Twins history, Willingham was signed at a discount while cutting payroll. If they thought THAT money would sign Cuddy, they were delirious. Hudson was a one year deal for 5M after no one else bit on him...was our need for 2B limited to one season when we signed him?

 

You're mad the Twins didn't bid on Josh Hamilton or Albert Pujols? We needed a CF perhaps BJ Upton. People on here were clamoring for Dan Haren. Would giving a 5 Year Contract to Nick Swisher or Micheal Bourn have been a good investment? Is Ryan Dempster any better in 2013 then Correria or Pelfrey? The only contract that seems to have worked out real well that the Twins could have pursued in Sanchez? You think a team coming off a 66 Win Season should be investing in 80 Plus Million Dollar Contracts for Pitchers. Were the Twins wrong for not making such a big investment in Johan?

 

Free Agency should compliment the roster. The Twins approach in Free Agency has been fine. If the Twins have an 80 Win Team after next year then sit on money then I'll complain along with you. I just don't see the point at the present time.

[ThePuck]

You're mad the Twins didn't bid on Josh Hamilton or Albert Pujols? We needed a CF perhaps BJ Upton. People on here were clamoring for Dan Haren. Would giving a 5 Year Contract to Nick Swisher or Micheal Bourn have been a good investment? Is Ryan Dempster any better in 2013 then Correria or Pelfrey? The only contract that seems to have worked out real well that the Twins could have pursued in Sanchez? You think a team coming off a 66 Win Season should be investing in 80 Plus Million Dollar Contracts for Pitchers. Were the Twins wrong for not making such a big investment in Johan?

 

Free Agency should compliment the roster. The Twins approach in Free Agency has been fine. If the Twins have an 80 Win Team after next year then sit on money then I'll complain along with you. I just don't see the point at the present time.

 

I think if you follow our conversation from the beginning to now, you'll see you've taken it way off course and are now making assumptions I've in no way presented. Not sure why, but it's happened. Anyway, I'm done with it.

[Kwak]

The Twins won't be making any major FA signings--it's not the plan. They are returning to the late 90's and hoping that they can get lucky again and build a winning team. Time is on their side because the stadium is force-feeding them cash from their loyal, patient fans and the rest of their division have money limits. They will likely run budgets in the 60-70MM range. If/when a consistent winner as experienced like last decade is built, we will have to wait and see if the payroll expands back to 100+MM--there is no guarantee that it will! I wouldn't be surprised if the next wave of stars opts to sign elsewhere--or the Twins simply trade the top players before free-agency for a handful of "prospects" for each trade. What I don't understand is why "fans" are worried that the Twins will "overspend" on free-agants either now or in the future--it isn't their money that would be spent.

[old nurse]

So, basically, we shouldn't ever sign a quality FA ever cause they will require money and years and we'll end up deal with declining years. The declining years argument keeps popping up...and almost every quality FA will get a contract during the normal declining years. That's a convenient stance.

Did not say that the Twins should not sign quality free agents. Never have said that. My definition of quality is higher than some others around here. I recall someone pretty adamant about wanting to sign a CF. The claim was he would be an upgrade. He hit .200 for the team that claimed him. Much better than .192, but Hicks had a better OPS. I guess he was signed to be flipped. That player ended up DFA again. If they sign someone I would prefer that they not be mediocre or a smidge above average.

The post I responded to you asked about the average age for a free agent. I gave you the average age from the position players that were not signed to minor league deals. That is well older than your posted age for prime players. The number of players under 30 is small. To get a quality player in their prime through free agency would be rare. The team, and fans, should

anticipate decline. When it happens later, great. If the decline is sooner deal with it. Each individual player is going to be different and you won't know. Werth is having a career year at 34. A year younger, Pujols doesn't look so good. Another bad year and you can say he is in decline.

[old nurse]

If the team were to sign free agents this year, go after at least two with qualifing offers. They would only cost a 2 and 3 round pick. If they are switching leagues it gives them a little time to adjust.

[old nurse]

The Twins won't be making any major FA signings--it's not the plan. They are returning to the late 90's and hoping that they can get lucky again and build a winning team. Time is on their side because the stadium is force-feeding them cash from their loyal, patient fans and the rest of their division have money limits. They will likely run budgets in the 60-70MM range. If/when a consistent winner as experienced like last decade is built, we will have to wait and see if the payroll expands back to 100+MM--there is no guarantee that it will! I wouldn't be surprised if the next wave of stars opts to sign elsewhere--or the Twins simply trade the top players before free-agency for a handful of "prospects" for each trade. What I don't understand is why "fans" are worried that the Twins will "overspend" on free-agants either now or in the future--it isn't their money that would be spent.

 

Bean counters know their beans. They see other teams that were losing eventually lost fans. When the teams got good, the fans still have not come back.

[jm3319]

Not 100% related to this thread but I think it sorta fits: What I'm most bummed out about is when this team had a solid core and was a consistent playoff contender (read: winning the crappiest division in baseball) and had Mauer and Morneau healthy, Kubel, Cuddyer, Nathan etc (sorry for not knowing the exact years), they never made a big trade or big FA signing to push them over the hump to try to go deeper into the playoffs. There were rumors of the Twins going after Cliff Lee at the deadline but the Twins backed away because they didn't want to sacrifice their future.....Well, here we are in that future and are sitting in our 3rd 90 loss season. Glad we didn't risk this awesome future we are currently living. I realize making a trade doesn't guarantee playoff success, but I'd understand a few down years as a result of going big more so than I understand 3+ crappy years after being conservative to protect "the future."

 

Anyone remember what prospects were being considered for trade bait for Lee? I cannot recall, but I'm guessing none of them panned out or are currently likely to be contributing to the MLB club any time soon.

[Otwins]

The free agents that make sense to me are the international free agents. Tanaka is 24, Abreau is 26. They will be looking for 4-5 year deals that buy out their arbitration years. The free agents from here are older and looking to play for a contender.We need young talent at those positions. The payroll is sooo low the next few years that even if the deals did go bad they would not cripple you in the future.

[josecordoba]

I think if you follow our conversation from the beginning to now, you'll see you've taken it way off course and are now making assumptions I've in no way presented. Not sure why, but it's happened. Anyway, I'm done with it.

 

You complained that the Twins wouldn't invest in Star players in Free Agency. I merely wanted to hear who they should have signed. I used the example of the Top Free Agents from 2012 to make the point. The reality of Baseball's revenue structure is that the players that make in to Free Agency are beginning their decline phrase in most cases. I never claimed that you advocated for any of these players. This was merely to make a point about the general risks involved with Free Agency.

[old nurse]

The free agents that make sense to me are the international free agents. Tanaka is 24, Abreau is 26. They will be looking for 4-5 year deals that buy out their arbitration years. The free agents from here are older and looking to play for a contender.We need young talent at those positions. The payroll is sooo low the next few years that even if the deals did go bad they would not cripple you in the future.

 

International free agents are free agents again once any contract they sigh is done. There are no arb years. They did their time.

[ThePuck]

You complained that the Twins wouldn't invest in Star players in Free Agency. I merely wanted to hear who they should have signed. I used the example of the Top Free Agents from 2012 to make the point. The reality of Baseball's revenue structure is that the players that make in to Free Agency are beginning their decline phrase in most cases. I never claimed that you advocated for any of these players. This was merely to make a point about the general risks involved with Free Agency.

 

No, what I said on our discussion, is if you're going to say we should follow the St. Louis way of creating a team, which I think it a good way to follow, we need to not only build from within (which most teams do, BTW) we also have to be willing to trade good prospects for quality star players and then keep those players and we also need to go after quality FAs that cost more than bargain prices. That's how it works for them. In other words, we were talking about the St Louis way of doing things and you pointed out moves we did that were for bit players not star players, as a way to say we do the same thing. I didn't complain about anything...I was saying if we are going the St Louis way, we need to do everything St Louis does. I think we will stall at the trading good prospects for true quality players and keeping them part and the signing of true quality players in FA part. Might be better to say we should follow the TB or Oakland way, because that seems much more likely, even though we have way more funds than those teams.

[old nurse]

You complained that the Twins wouldn't invest in Star players in Free Agency. I merely wanted to hear who they should have signed. I used the example of the Top Free Agents from 2012 to make the point. The reality of Baseball's revenue structure is that the players that make in to Free Agency are beginning their decline phrase in most cases. I never claimed that you advocated for any of these players. This was merely to make a point about the general risks involved with Free Agency.

 

In theory they want the Twins to sign free agents. By making it a theory it absolves them from the reality of the situation of external factors like free choice of the players and large market money.

[ThePuck]

Did not say that the Twins should not sign quality free agents. Never have said that. My definition of quality is higher than some others around here. I recall someone pretty adamant about wanting to sign a CF. The claim was he would be an upgrade. He hit .200 for the team that claimed him. Much better than .192, but Hicks had a better OPS. I guess he was signed to be flipped. That player ended up DFA again. If they sign someone I would prefer that they not be mediocre or a smidge above average.

The post I responded to you asked about the average age for a free agent. I gave you the average age from the position players that were not signed to minor league deals. That is well older than your posted age for prime players. The number of players under 30 is small. To get a quality player in their prime through free agency would be rare. The team, and fans, should

anticipate decline. When it happens later, great. If the decline is sooner deal with it. Each individual player is going to be different and you won't know. Werth is having a career year at 34. A year younger, Pujols doesn't look so good. Another bad year and you can say he is in decline.

 

I'm sorry, that actually wasn't directed at you, you just happened to be the person who answered the question. I'm saying if a person advocates for not signing a quality FA because they'll end up paying for decline years, one might as well say that a team shouldn't sign quality FAs period because, based on the age of most FA and the years most quality FAs require, there are going to be some decline years...because when you get them, they are right at the end or past their 'prime' years.

[old nurse]

No, what I said was, if you're going to say we should follow the St. Louis way of creating a team, which I think it a good way to follow, on top of building from within (which most teams do, BTW) we also have to be willing to trade good prospects for quality star players and then keep those players and we also need to go after quality FAs that cost more than bargain prices. That's how it works for them. In other words, we were talking about the St Louis way of doing things. I didn't complain about anything...I was comparing approaches.

 

Lohse signed initially with St Louis as a 1 year bargain basement free agent. In 2011 the Cards signed a scrappy utility player from the Twins for a minimal wage. St Louis can get a good player to sign a one year contract. The Twins can't do that. It is not the same situation

[ThePuck]

Lohse signed initially with St Louis as a 1 year bargain basement free agent. In 2011 the Cards signed a scrappy utility player from the Twins for a minimal wage. St Louis can get a good player to sign a one year contract. The Twins can't do that. It is not the same situation

 

The Twins just did do that, with Pelfrey...in fact, signing one year bargain basement players is what we do best. It's scrap heap shopping, hoping for cheap gold.

 

In any event, pointing to St Louis as the way for our team to do things (which is what he was doing) isn't going to work for a variety of reasons. We aren't going to trade quality FA for top quality players and then pony up to keep those players and we aren't going to pay for quality FA like Beltran. That's the way it is. So, we really need to be looking at the way TB does it, and just be better than we are at targeting the right cheap FA players.