Perspective on Payroll and Direction from Miles Away

[jorgenswest]

I enjoy reading and debating about the future of the Twins and their plans. I often find myself having a hard time agreeing with those that would want the Twins to spend big in the free agent market this winter (or last winter). In my mind the timing is off. Almost any free agent is certain to decline in years 2,3 or 4 of the contract. That doesn't mesh with my long term hopes of building the next Twin team to win a playoff series. I would rather them go young and not try to compete. I would rather they find a way to move Willingham and Doumit even for little return. I enjoy watching today's game of AAAA players.

 

Shouldn't I care more about the certain drop in payroll by going young? I don't. I don't need to because I am not contributing to the budget. Rod Carew was playing second base when I last lived in Minnesota. The wonder of MLB TV keeps me connected. I see or listen to most games. I am not a season ticket holder. I have seen one game in Target Field. I wonder if my perspective would be different if I were a season ticket holder. I might be angry if my ticket money wasn't spent making the current team as strong as possible. It seems like our opposing views are miles apart. Those miles are also literal.

 

For all on this board that spend significant money on the Twins, your voice certainly should matter more to the Twins than mine. Thank you to all season ticket holders that have suffered through three losing seasons. I am sorry that the direction I would advocate for the team would lead them to another losing season before the prospects really start to arrive.

[Otto von Ballpark]

This franchise has never spent big (has barely spent at all) in free agency, regardless of where they are in any cycle. It's gotten to the point where I almost just want to see a signing to confirm they are willing to do it.

 

Also, in modern MLB with a modern stadium and accompanying revenues, you should always be trying to sign free agents you like, regardless of any cycle. The money is there, and cycles can turn quickly.

[jorgenswest]

This franchise has never spent big (has barely spent at all) in free agency, regardless of where they are in any cycle. It's gotten to the point where I almost just want to see a signing to confirm they are willing to do it.

 

Also, in modern MLB with a modern stadium and accompanying revenues, you should always be trying to sign free agents you like, regardless of any cycle. The money is there, and cycles can turn quickly.

 

We disagree. I don't want to be stuck with decline phase players when the younger players are ready. I don't think the Twins can afford to sign a Willingham for three years and toss him after one and just get another guy. I wouldn't want the Twins to give a pitcher a 5 year contract only to get two good years and decline or injury in the last three. That is a signing I would support when the base of younger players has contributed to a good team ready to be a very good team. Clearly I am in the minority. It could be because my pocketbook isn't contributing to the current budget.

[ThePuck]

We disagree. I don't want to be stuck with decline phase players when the younger players are ready. I don't think the Twins can afford to sign a Willingham for three years and toss him after one and just get another guy. I wouldn't want the Twins to give a pitcher a 5 year contract only to get two good years and decline or injury in the last three. That is a signing I would support when the base of younger players has contributed to a good team ready to be a very good team. Clearly I am in the minority. It could be because my pocketbook isn't contributing to the current budget.

 

A common belief is that a players prime is 26-30. What do you think is the normal age of a free agent?

[Otto von Ballpark]

Obviously nobody recommends signing a guy for 5 years if you think he will only be good for 2. But that is not the general rule for free agents - I think you find plenty who have 3-4 good years. And the Twins are obviously going to be more selective than certain other clubs, so they could identify the best FA to target.

 

The problem is the Twins reject most potential FA outright.

[TheLeviathan]

One thing that might be something to chew on jorgen....at some point next year the All-Star game won't be a factor for keeping season ticket holders and the only things left keeping people there are Target Field and the team. If the team is awful again, how much longer does the awesomeness of TF keep people buying season tickets and not just individual tickets? Or stub-hubbing it to a game?

 

It's possible Sano or someone might be up to generate a buzz for the team...but maybe they need to make a signing just to keep people invested and not feeling cheated. Just throwing out something to chew on.

[jorgenswest]

The season ticket base should have great priority. If free agent signings are necessary to retain that base, it is probably better to always try to compete rather than rebuild from a base of younger players.

[TheLeviathan]

The season ticket base should have great priority. If free agent signings are necessary to retain that base, it is probably better to always try to compete rather than rebuild from a base of younger players.

 

Right, and I'm sure the marketing gurus with the Twins know more about this, but I worry our revenues are going to start dropping right when we need them most. An investment or two, slightly prematurely, might be a factor in keeping that base excited.

[Thrylos]

This franchise has never spent big (has barely spent at all) in free agency, regardless of where they are in any cycle.

 

never is too long.

 

The MN iteration of the franchise was the biggest free agent spending team before the 1991 season and they signed one of their own free agents (Kirby) to the largest free agent contact ever a season after that.

 

Do not confuse the Ryan years with "ever".

[Chance]

I do agree with going young and not spending much until the nucleus is here and ready to make a push then sign the players we need to fill holes and change the team from a competitive one to a contender.

[josecordoba]

Also, in modern MLB with a modern stadium and accompanying revenues, you should always be trying to sign free agents you like, regardless of any cycle. The money is there, and cycles can turn quickly.

 

So Houston should be currently spending big in Free Agency? I'm not opposed to Free Agency but GM's need to have a realistic evaluation of a Team's place on a win curve. If the Twins were an 80 Win Team sitting on 25 Million Dollars when it might make the difference into being an 85 win team (This is far to critique). A 70 Win Twins team not wanting to blow money on present resources in the process of building a future contender makes sense.

[josecordoba]

Right, and I'm sure the marketing gurus with the Twins know more about this, but I worry our revenues are going to start dropping right when we need them most. An investment or two, slightly prematurely, might be a factor in keeping that base excited.

 

The problem is the Fan Base is only excited when it's reflected in the on-field product. If this year's Twins team spent 25 Million Dollars more then won 76 games, you would still have plenty of September apathy.

[Mike Sixel]

Or you an sign them and flip them,,,,,or maybe Sano and hicks and Rosario add 8 wins, and getting two starters that are not among the 5 worst in baseball jump starts things. Or maybe the FA is like hunter, and does not just drop off the earth....but you will never know if you refuse to sign them.....and yes, McPhail had no trouble spending money in the dome, so this not a twins issue.....

[old nurse]

Or you an sign them and flip them,,,,,or maybe Sano and hicks and Rosario add 8 wins, and getting two starters that are not among the 5 worst in baseball jump starts things. Or maybe the FA is like hunter, and does not just drop off the earth....but you will never know if you refuse to sign them.....and yes, McPhail had no trouble spending money in the dome, so this not a twins issue.....

 

Or you are stuck with a bunch of mediocre players because you can't get rid of them.

[snepp]

Or you are stuck with a bunch of mediocre players because you can't get rid of them.

 

 

Or you do nothing and have a roster full of terrible players that no one wants.

[jorgenswest]

It takes a long sample to really determine if a young player is terrible. They may need to be judged by their growth as they get past 1000 plate appearances. They probably need consistent starts as they struggle.

 

I am much more interested in the Twins investing in these struggles rather than extending or signing decline phase players. I had a different viewpoint when the Twins were winning and signed Thome.

 

I would rather lose a few more games investing playing time into younger players. It is easier for me to take this side. I am not a season ticket holder. I don't have any skin in the game.

[Oldgoat_MN]

My issue isn't rebuilding, it's being dishonest.

 

The marketing department should have come up with a "Who's Your Guy?" theme.

 

The Twins will be awesome soon!

Who is your young guy that you are pulling for?

Parmelee? Dozier? Arcia? Plouffe?

Who's your guy?

This would have legitimized the rebuilding and been better than pretending that this team would be 'competitive'.

 

That pretending thing sucks.

[clutterheart]

The twins have no one on their current roster who will demand any kind of budget busting contract in the next 4 years. There is no reason for them to not spend like drunk sailors on anyone to bring them into respectability. Especially since the Twins play in palace built on the back of the tax payers.

 

Yet the Pohlads work to avoid paying taxes, hire a GM who is seemingly out of touch with the current market and won't spend on players.

 

Its depressing...

[Otto von Ballpark]

So Houston should be currently spending big in Free Agency? I'm not opposed to Free Agency but GM's need to have a realistic evaluation of a Team's place on a win curve. If the Twins were an 80 Win Team sitting on 25 Million Dollars when it might make the difference into being an 85 win team (This is far to critique). A 70 Win Twins team not wanting to blow money on present resources in the process of building a future contender makes sense.

 

Note that I said free agents you like (meaning, that the team likes). Targeted acquisitions. If you identify some of those you think are the best bets, and you are realistic in your bidding, chances are you will snag a quality player every once and a while at near market rates. It won't break any non-Metrodome team's back, and you will get a good player and asset.

 

Evidence clearly shows that not every FA is wildly overpaid or a guaranteed pumpkin within 2 years. Free agency isn't the best way to assemble a whole roster, but it is pretty clear that it can be effective in filling one out.

 

And most FA deals are in the 3-5 year range -- there is no way a well-run modern MLB org should expect complete rebuilding mode like the 2013 Astros to last more than a year or two at its greatest depths.

[old nurse]

A common belief is that a players prime is 26-30. What do you think is the normal age of a free agent?

 

For a position player last year, the average age was 33. According to the graphs cited by Thyrlos, that would be the age the decline is in full force. With exceptions like Torrii Hunter at the delayed significant decline, the data would look normalized. There were 8 free agents under 30, 3 of those being non tendered by their previous club.

[Otto von Ballpark]

It takes a long sample to really determine if a young player is terrible. They may need to be judged by their growth as they get past 1000 plate appearances. They probably need consistent starts as they struggle.

 

I am much more interested in the Twins investing in these struggles rather than extending or signing decline phase players. I had a different viewpoint when the Twins were winning and signed Thome.

 

I would rather lose a few more games investing playing time into younger players. It is easier for me to take this side. I am not a season ticket holder. I don't have any skin in the game.

 

If the debate is "give a prospect a realistic chance" vs "sign an aging vet" then you won't get much disagreement.

 

When the definition of "prospect" is expanded to include Clete Thomas, Wilkin Ramirez, Chris Colabello, Sam Deduno, PJ Walters, Andrew Albers... spanning multiple seasons... and "aging vets" can include under-30 guys signing 5 year deals... I start to think that smart front office with winning as a true top priority maybe shouldn't categorically refuse to sign FA for more than 5 mil, 1 year deals. Especially with money in the bank and adequate revenue streams and as another poster noted, no quality youngsters due significant raises for at least 4 years.

[pierre75275]

You can count me in the group that doesnt really see the point of spending 30million in free agency just to be better then average. In 91 the twins went out and got a Morris and a chili davis. My FEELING is they will do that again when the time is right. My problem is them saying we will be competive when they know they are playing for a top five pick next june.

[ThePuck]

For a position player last year, the average age was 33. According to the graphs cited by Thyrlos, that would be the age the decline is in full force. With exceptions like Torrii Hunter at the delayed significant decline, the data would look normalized. There were 8 free agents under 30, 3 of those being non tendered by their previous club.

 

So, basically, we shouldn't ever sign a quality FA ever cause they will require money and years and we'll end up deal with declining years. The declining years argument keeps popping up...and almost every quality FA will get a contract during the normal declining years. That's a convenient stance.

[Winston Smith]

I think it's amazing after 3 90+ loss seasons that the best path is do nothing because doing something might not work, Just stay the course because this is so much fun.

[josecordoba]

I think it's amazing after 3 90+ loss seasons that the best path is do nothing because doing something might not work, Just stay the course because this is so much fun.

 

1. I'm guessing you'd be happy with the Twins having spent 25 Million More only to lose 88 Games? The Twins payroll was sufficient in 2009-2010. The Twins realized they were in a rebuild so Payroll went down.

 

2. The key to rebuilding is player development not spending like drunken sailors in Free Agency. I wonder if your tact would be different if you were an Angels fan rather then a Twins Fan. The key to next winning Twins team are Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Meyer, Rosario and others. This is how the Cardinals win. Free Agency should be about complementing holes when teams are close. The 2013 Twins aren't close.

[ThePuck]

1. I'm guessing you'd be happy with the Twins having spent 25 Million More only to lose 88 Games? The Twins payroll was sufficient in 2009-2010. The Twins realized they were in a rebuild so Payroll went down.

 

2. The key to rebuilding is player development not spending like drunken sailors in Free Agency. I wonder if your tact would be different if you were an Angels fan rather then a Twins Fan. The key to next winning Twins team are Sano, Buxton, Arcia, Meyer, Rosario and others. This is how the Cardinals win. Free Agency should be about complementing holes when teams are close. The 2013 Twins aren't close.

 

St Louis also wins by trading prospects for star quality players (Holliday) and then stepping up and signing them for what they deserve. They also go and get quality FAs like Beltran and Chris Carpenter. Those guys are hardly just complimentary players and hardly low paid. Do you see us doing that in the future? If you're going to point to a teams way of doing things as the way for us to go, look at the whole picture.

 

And, again, no one is saying building through the farm system isn't the main way to rebuild. What people are saying is there are many ways to get the job done and all avenues need to be utilized.

[jorgenswest]

I see a future of the Twins signing key players when the base of young players is established.

[Mike Sixel]

I see a future of the Twins signing key players when the base of young players is established.

 

Based on what evidence?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I see a future of the Twins signing key players when the base of young players is established.

 

As Mike observes, the next big free agent signing TR makes will be his first.

 

And I think you sign the big free agent when one that you really like is available, NOT when you feel like you should. Not every FA or FA class is equal. Waiting to make big signings based primarily on your timeline is a recipe for coming up empty-handed at best, and overpaying at worst (i.e. signing an older or worse guy than you would prefer, or getting into an unexpected bidding war).

[Rosterman]

You approach free agency in any number of ways:

 

First, look at your own. You are paying them as a Free Agent because of what they may still do for you, and also partly because of any meaning they may have had for the organization.

 

Anytime you sign a free agent, you run the risk of a good season or two or a terrible contract. Some you may luck out on and trade mid-term for a player. Others, like Willingham's current contract, basically you COULD dump him as a waiver claim and not worry about it anymore. You got the good season out of him that was worth an investment. That's signing smart. And if you don't dump them next year, you can still dump them next year.

 

You don't sign a free agent, but you have money midseason to pick up someone else's free agent, or to spend on a rental. You can pick up future year or sign and extension, too. Then you still do have the ability to trade.

 

Yes, you get burned on contracts like Pavano and Capps last year, both were unavailable for trade and you ate their injury-sodden year. But more often than not, if the contract is especially reasonable, someone else will pick it up if you have patience, or if you trade at the high point.

 

The Twins seem to miss the high points (Young, Liriano) to trade a player, or to end their Twins career early (Cuddyer, Hunter, Nathan, Kubel) often because they think they might get a deal or something. You can still underpay a player to play for your team due to loyalty, but the other big factor is competitiveness. Right now, you have to overpay to get someone to come to a losing team. Fact.

 

And the big question is living within a budget...spend what you budget, or do youc arry it over into future investments. I don't see a team losing money on purpose because they made too much money in a previous season. Our biggest gripe here is that we voted a money machine for the Pohlad family by giving them a new stadium and increasing the value on paper of the franchise 30% in the process. They are raking in monies. Yes, they have spent, some unwisely, but still looking to profit rather than break even or -- egad -- lose money, which you don't do if you put a winner on the field. Butts in the seats mean more concession, more advertising revenue, more trinkets sold, and the chance to raise ticket prices if the tickets are hard-to-get. That is a no brainer.