Morneau PTBNL Speculation and Wishes

[John Bonnes]

Here were the top 10 Pirates prospects from BA. (If someone has their top 30, I'd love to see it:

 

1. Gerrit Cole, rhp

2. Jameson Taillon, rhp

3. Luis Heredia, rhp

4. Gregory Polanco, of

5. Alen Hanson, ss

6. Josh Bell, of

7. Kyle McPherson, rhp

8. Justin Wilson, lhp

9. Barrett Barnes, of

10. Clay Holmes, rhp

 

I think we can safely say the top three are off limits, but all of the pitchers on that list were at least on track to be starters as of the beginning of this year. For comparison sake, here was the Top 10 list from Baseball Prospectus:

 

1. RHP Gerrit Cole

2. RHP Jameson Taillon

3. CF Gregory Polanco

4. RHP Luis Heredia

5. IF/LF Alen Hanson

6. OF Josh Bell

7. C Wyatt Mathisen

8. RHP Tyler Glasnow

9. RHP Nick Kingham

10. OF Barrett Barnes

 

The top 6 line up pretty well, but 7-10 change and includes 2 more pitchers. both of whom are also starters. That gives 5 starting pitching prospects that aren't Cole/Taillon/Heredia but could still be regarded as significant. Here's a couple of snippets on each:

 

Kyle McPherson - RHP, 25yo, AAA - underwent Tommy John surgery this July.

Justin Wilson - LHP, 24, Majors - has been pitching as a reliever for the Pirates. 2.01 ERA and 1.01 WHIP, 53K/24BB in 67IP. Started last year in AAA.

Clay Holmes - RHP, 20yo, Low A - Starting and has a 4.19 ERA with 85K in 116 IP (and 67! walks)

Tyler Glasnow - RHP, 20yo, Low A - 2.18 ERA, 164(!)K in 111.1 IP with 61 BB. Holy Shamoly.

Nick Kingham - RHP, 21yo, AA - Breezed through High A, has 2.70 ERA with 69K in 73IP with 30 BB in AA.

 

I think we can safely say it isn't McPherson and I don't think it can be Wilson. Glasnow would seem to good to be true. I'd be pretty happy with Kingham.

 

Anyone who knows the minors better than me (which are a lot of you) want to give me your guesses or wishes?

[PseudoSABR]

Here's Mayo's updated top 20.

Here's Sickle's top 20ish from last November

 

There's speculation that it's a guy on the 40 man roster, so they are hoping to slip in him through waivers before the end of the year.

 

Guys like Cumpton, Oliver and Pimentel fit that bill. Stolmy is a cool name and he's having a fine season, but was just called up, so that would be an odd move, considering. Didn't the Twins draft Oliver, or is that a different guy. Cumpton's had a nice AAA seasosn and some good numbers in spot starts, doesn't strikeout many, though.

 

McPherson had TJ, so maybe because his DL status would acquire passing through waivers.

 

Glasnow would be an absolute score (13.3 K/9!). Though I'm not sure why he wouldn't be immediately announced after the deal.

 

Other scenarios include a PTNBL based on Morneau's production/health or someone drafted in 2014 or the Twins haven't picked the name from a list of several.

[nicksaviking]

If it is Duke Welker as being reported I'll be pretty disappointed because offering that extra $2 million of Morneau's salary surely would have gotten an upgrade.

 

Hopefully Welker is not the PTBNL, on tonights broadcast when asked about how the PTBNL process works Ryan said often they are dictated by how the buyer progresses in the postseason. Obviously those kind of escalators may not be in place but I'm not sure why Ryan would volunteer that inofrmation if it were not the case. Of course if those escalators are in place, we should all cheer for a Pittsburgh World Series.

[PseudoSABR]

If it is Duke Welker as being reported I'll be pretty disappointed because offering that extra $2 million of Morneau's salary surely would have gotten an upgrade.

You don't know that. The Pirates could have happily eaten the contract so they didn't have to give up a better prospect. It makes sense for each side to insist on eating the contract so as to maximize talent.

[Thrylos]

Allegedly the Pirates' GM said to the Pittsburgh press that the PTBNL is "significant".

 

A couple speculative names thrown around from the Pittsburgh side are 25 year old LHSP Jeff Locke (who has been up and down for a couple years now and is not shown on these lists) who can actually strike people out a bit, consistently throws a fastball in the 90s, does not walk many and induces a ton of ground balls (Sounds like a typical Twins' guy, but better) and LHB 24 year old OF/1B Andrew Lambo (who also is not on these lists). He is a big strong kid with a big swing (32 HR, 99 RBI this season with close to .300 isoP in AAA) who the Twins might think they can plug into 1B ahead of Colabello or Parmelee next season. I thought that the Twins will go P, but this might make sense as well...

 

Another point of interest: Ryan watched all 4 games of Rochester vs. Indianapolis (the Pirates' AAA team) last week or so.

 

Starting pitchers were Jameson Tailon (No way, too good), Brandon Cumpton (possible), Andy Oliver (possible, and, yes, the Twins drafted him, and you know how they like to get people who they drafted but did not sign), and Kris Johnson (no way, too old.) Duke Welker, another possibility, finished two of the four games got 5 Ks in 2.1 IP, surrendering one hit and a BB. He is a closer now, but is a converted starter, who is throwing in mid to high 90s

 

Lambo hit a HR and a single in the first game and then got recalled to the majors. Presley (the guy who was named) played in a couple of games and did ok...

 

I am on the road right now, but when back in PA next week, might get some more info from there (because the Twins do not talk.)

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'll toss in another one to consider.

 

Stolmy Pimentel.

[Monkeypaws]

So is Welker official or no?

[Thrylos]

So is Welker official or no?

 

not official.

[shs_59]

John, Baseball Prospectus Killed BA then if those lists are indeed the ones coming into the yr.

 

their top guys now: (Cole, Marte, Wilson and others are graduates)

 

1. Jameson Taillon (um-no)

2. Tyler Glasnow (un-touchable)

3. Gregory Palanco (same)

4. Alen Hanson (gettable maybe)

5. Nick Kingham (my choice)

6. Austin Meadows (2013 draft choice)

7. Josh Bell

8. Reese McGuire (Catcher 2013 draft pick)

9. Kyle Mcpherson

10. Luis Heredia

others: Gift Noegpe, Duke Welker, Alex Dickerson and a few other pitchers.