Judging A Rebuild

[ThePuck]

This is correct. Ryan has also said many times, any time he has gone to management with a special request to improve the ball club, management has always agreed to said special request.

 

He won't even use the money available to him much less ask for more.

[howieramone1406390264]

He won't even use the money available to him much less ask for more.

 

Terry Ryan has said many times, he will not spend money for the sake of spending money. The past is not a perfect predictor of the future. The goal is to avoid a long rebuild. Many believe this is what is occurring, both on this board and the national media.

[ThePuck]

The goal is to avoid a long rebuild. Many believe this is what is occurring, both on this board and the national media.

 

Popular opinion based on...um...nothing isn't much of an argument.

 

Not only that, but since we are waiting for prospects, it's going to be awhile...not just until the players are in place, but for us to filter though the keepers and the non-keepers and for them to get used to the majors. I don't know how short of a time a rebuild needs to be to be considered a short time, but it's been three years, and we're likely looking at three more years, minimum...that's a pretty long time.

[Mr. Brooks]

Terry Ryan has said many times, he will not spend money for the sake of spending money. The past is not a perfect predictor of the future. The goal is to avoid a long rebuild. Many believe this is what is occurring, both on this board and the national media.

 

The problem with your statement is that Ryan didn't believe we were a rebuilding team. He said as much with both his words AND his actions.

I believe that finally, after this season, he realizes that it is a team that needs to be rebuilt, but his poor judgement has already cost us nearly 2 seasons of treading water.

IMO its a little late now to avoid a "long rebuild".

[old nurse]

The problem with your statement is that Ryan didn't believe we were a rebuilding team. He said as much with both his words AND his actions.

I believe that finally, after this season, he realizes that it is a team that needs to be rebuilt, but his poor judgement has already cost us nearly 2 seasons of treading water.

IMO its a little late now to avoid a "long rebuild".

 

What actions did he do last off season would indicate that he was not rebuilding. He traded for prospects. What talent he added was stopgap at best.

[jokin]

Popular opinion based on...um...nothing isn't much of an argument.

 

Not only that, but since we are waiting for prospects, it's going to be awhile...not just until the players are in place, but for us to filter though the keepers and the non-keepers and for them to get used to the majors. I don't know how short of a time a rebuild needs to be to be considered a short time, but it's been three years, and we're likely looking at three more years, minimum...that's a pretty long time.

 

Sooo.... I shouldn't make my Parade-attending plans just yet? Along with "belief" that we'll be Parading in 2015, I prefer a lot of supporting evidence, as well... and IMHO, prudently and intelligently NOT using a readily-available resource of $$$ doesn't count as supporting evidence for a sooner-completed rebuild over a later one.

[Mr. Brooks]

What actions did he do last off season would indicate that he was not rebuilding. He traded for prospects. What talent he added was stopgap at best.

 

Rebuilding teams don't give Ryan Doumit an extension.

Rebuilding teams trade Willingham coming off a career year, with a team friendly contract.

Rebuilding teams don't give 2 year contracts to Kevin Correia. If all he wanted was some veteran #5 starter to eat some innings until the kids are ready, there were a dozen or more of those that went on 1 year deals. The only way you sign ANY of them to a 2 year deal is because you think one of them is "better" than the others (which is irrelevant unless you think you are competing for something), and you think you need to offer the 2nd year to get him.

[glunn]

Moderator note -

 

Some of these posts are getting a bit confrontational. Please keep this respectful and factual.

[ashbury]

I admire your devotion to Parmelee but he doesn't have the bat speed. Reps won't change that.

 

Wait, you're saying that those ads I found claiming "develop explosive bat speed" are a lie?

 

/ my bat speed in Little League was measured with a sun dial, so I wouldn't know

[diehardtwinsfan]

Rebuilding teams don't give Ryan Doumit an extension.

Rebuilding teams trade Willingham coming off a career year, with a team friendly contract.

Rebuilding teams don't give 2 year contracts to Kevin Correia. If all he wanted was some veteran #5 starter to eat some innings until the kids are ready, there were a dozen or more of those that went on 1 year deals. The only way you sign ANY of them to a 2 year deal is because you think one of them is "better" than the others (which is irrelevant unless you think you are competing for something), and you think you need to offer the 2nd year to get him.

 

Rebuilding teams do sign guys like KC, because they don't want them to block prospects. I didn't like the KC signing, but a 2 year contract is not that big of a deal.

 

The Doumit extension had something to do with his role (keeping Mauer fresh while being able to provide above average offense at C). Pinto hadn't emerged as a prospect yet. It wasn't a bad deal, it was one year too long (though I don't know if it happens if it's a one year extension).

 

That said, these are the types of moves rebuilding teams make. Quite simply, it's one or two year deals. Rebuilding teams don't go out and sign Anibel Sanchez to a 5 year deal. The question at hand is when is the rebuild going to end. Next year is the big transition year where a good chunk of guys will transition on to the major league roster. We will likely have a real good idea what that rebuild will look like by the end of next season.

[Mr. Brooks]

Rebuilding teams do sign guys like KC, because they don't want them to block prospects. I didn't like the KC signing, but a 2 year contract is not that big of a deal.

 

The Doumit extension had something to do with his role (keeping Mauer fresh while being able to provide above average offense at C). Pinto hadn't emerged as a prospect yet. It wasn't a bad deal, it was one year too long (though I don't know if it happens if it's a one year extension).

 

That said, these are the types of moves rebuilding teams make. Quite simply, it's one or two year deals. Rebuilding teams don't go out and sign Anibel Sanchez to a 5 year deal. The question at hand is when is the rebuild going to end. Next year is the big transition year where a good chunk of guys will transition on to the major league roster. We will likely have a real good idea what that rebuild will look like by the end of next season.

 

I don't think you understand my point.

Yes, you need players for those roles, I'm not arguing that.

But, any back end pitcher will do. When you are rebuilding, there is absolutely no reason to go anything more than year to year with a guy like Kevin Correia. UNLESS you think he gives you a better chance to win than any one of the dozen guys like him that signed 1 year deals. If you are a rebuilding team, you don't care about that extra half win that picking the "right" guy out of that bunch will give you. You only care about that extra half win if you think that half win has a chance to make a difference in a playoff race.

 

Yes, you need a guy to take innings behind the plate, but again, a truly rebuilding team only needs a warm body in that role. No reason to go anything but year to year with that role. If you don't have a prospect that can fill that role, then go sign any number of veteran catchers that can be had on one year deals in any given offseason.

 

Finally, when you match Ryan's words with these actions, the picture becomes clearer.

Of course, people will say that Ryan is going to lie, he didn't really mean that, he has to say that.

Did the GM's of any of the other obvious rebuilding teams say they were going to contend this year?

Maybe they did, I don't know. I doubt it.

[oldguy10]

What I fear about any kind of "rebuild" is what are the Pohlad's real motives long term. I am thinking they are looking to go the route of Houston and Miami thus just worrying about making huge sums of money without having to improve the product on the field. It sure looks that way so far to me.

[Mike Sixel]

Miami has been very successful in the past with this approach. Before people judge them, let's see what happens over the next three years......Houston had no farm team, no MLB players....not sure what people wanted them to do. Both teams traded their only assets (other than Stanton) and reloaded their systems as best they could. Just as people argue it is too early to judge the Twins' rebuild, it might be a bit early to judge either of the other two teams.

 

But I do agree, I see no evidence the Pohlads want to spend money to make this team good. I continue to hope I'm wrong on that front.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Finally, when you match Ryan's words with these actions, the picture becomes clearer.

Of course, people will say that Ryan is going to lie, he didn't really mean that, he has to say that.

Did the GM's of any of the other obvious rebuilding teams say they were going to contend this year?

Maybe they did, I don't know. I doubt it.

 

I look at Ryan's actions and it screams rebuild. You don't trade away 2 CFers for prospects and promote a guy from AA who clearly needed more time in the minors if you are in a "win now" situation. You don't sign guys like Pelfrey and Correia if you are in a win now situation.

 

I tend to ignore words because GM is going to come out in the winter/spring and say "we're gonna suck". You can choose to take him at his value. You choose to call him a liar. You can choose to say it's misplaced optimism. It might be one or several of those, who knows. But no GM is going to tell the press that they will be bad. They just won't.

[Mr. Brooks]

I look at Ryan's actions and it screams rebuild. You don't trade away 2 CFers for prospects and promote a guy from AA who clearly needed more time in the minors if you are in a "win now" situation. You don't sign guys like Pelfrey and Correia if you are in a win now situation.

 

I tend to ignore words because GM is going to come out in the winter/spring and say "we're gonna suck". You can choose to take him at his value. You choose to call him a liar. You can choose to say it's misplaced optimism. It might be one or several of those, who knows. But no GM is going to tell the press that they will be bad. They just won't.

 

So there are only two options? We are going to be bad, or we are going to compete for the division?

Again, I ask, did any of the GM's from other obvious rebuilding teams claim they were going to compete for the division?

Couldn't he simply say something like, "I think we have acquired the pieces to improve both this year, and into the future."? Or any number of gray answers like that?

Absolutely no good can come from him claiming that we were going to compete for the division. All it does is lead to questions from the mainstream fan when we have another 90 loss season, i.e. "who's fault is it?".

[Mr. Brooks]

When a poster chooses to interpret rather generic statements from Terry Ryan, it really doesn't tell us much about Ryan. What it does do is tell us a great deal about that poster.

 

Claiming you WILL compete for the division is a "generic" statement? Ok.

[old nurse]

Claiming you WILL compete for the division is a "generic" statement? Ok.

 

If every player on the Twins was having a good year would the Twins be contending? The veterans playing like it was the second best years of their careers. Hicks hitting like it was spring training, the second year players stepping up not backwards. Diamond and Worely not regressing but improving? Pelphrey pitching like 2010 in the last 2/3 of the season. Could you see the Twins being contenders? That would be everything going right. Not likely but if it did Ryan's statement is accurate.

[Mr. Brooks]

If every player on the Twins was having a good year would the Twins be contending? The veterans playing like it was the second best years of their careers. Hicks hitting like it was spring training, the second year players stepping up not backwards. Diamond and Worely not regressing but improving? Pelphrey pitching like 2010 in the last 2/3 of the season. Could you see the Twins being contenders? That would be everything going right. Not likely but if it did Ryan's statement is accurate.

 

Many of those things were not going to happen, period. It's downright disturbing to suggest that a MLB GM had thoughts of a fantasy scenario where literally every player on the roster has a dream season, and nobody gets injured. In fact, every team in baseball could probably compete for a division title if everything went right. Most GM's are smart enough to know that is not going to happen. Not that it's not "likely" to happen, as you say, but that it literally WILL NOT happen.

Diamond and Worley were NOT going to improve, they were DUE for a regression to the mean. Now, I did not expect Diamond to be THIS bad, but I did expect this from Worley. I didn't think he was anything more than a fringe AAAA/5th starter on a bad team from day 1. Obviously I got ripped to shreds for that opinion at the time, and I'm sure now you'll say I was "just lucky".

What is funny is that many of the same people claiming you couldn't possibly have seen this coming for Worley, give credit to facing NL lineups for Liriano's improvement. How that doesn't work both ways in their mind, I don't get. Worley is coming from the NL to the AL and his numbers in Philly were a complete and utter FLUKE. Getting that many K's looking is not a sustainable event in major league baseball. The hitters are too good at what they do.

 

Doumit was not going to have another career (or as you say 2nd best career) year, he just wasn't. The projection models predicted this is who he would be. It's not hocus pocus, it's really not.

Pelfrey is coming off TJ surgery, moving to the tougher league, and was never all that good to begin with. I would say, and I am guessing so would most of the projection models, that he is having roughly the type of season he should have been expected to have.

Sure, Willingham being hurt and ineffective couldnt be predicted, but okay, what does that add? A couple of wins?

Morneau is having exactly the season he should have been expected to have. Dreams of him suddenly waking up one morning and turning back into pre concussion Justin were not realistic.

Until this recent injury, Mauer was having an excellent season. Florimon is hitting like he should have been expected to, and if anything his defense has been a pleasant surprise.

Dozier has been a pleasant surprise.

Arcia has held his own for a 22 year old.

Hicks was an unknown. No competent GM would "bank" on anything special from a rookie making the jump from AA. Especially one with a track record of struggling in his first taste of a new level.

Plouffe has taken a step back, but again, what is the cost of that? A win or two?

The bullpen has been better than expected. You can't just point out everything that went wrong without pointing out what went right.

The starting rotation has been, IMO, exactly what it should have been expected to be. Terrible.

As I admitted before, Diamond has been worse than expected, but guess what, Deduno has been better than expected, and we've gotten contributions from someone named Andrew Albers. To me the contributions from Deduno and Albers cancel out the negative of Diamond. Again, you have to point out the positive with the negative.

This was never going to be a playoff contending roster. I mean, look at the roster!

Only Terry Ryan and maybe a handful of overly optimistic fans would think (thought) it was.

[John Bonnes]

There's certainly a continuum between "We're division contenders" and "We're rebuilding."

 

(BTW, My opinion is that when Ryan is saying he wants to contend this year isn't so much that he's trying to sell tickets - it's that he wants the entire organization to not get lazy. He's trying to turn up the heat.)

 

His two biggest moves this offseason were certainly moves for the future versus moves for the present. He did somewhat fill some holes - I'd put Pelfrey and Correia under that umbrella. I don't undertand the 2-year deal with Correia, but if you try to judge the organization's direction with that move, you end up in all kinds of goofy places. I think Occam's Razor applies for move - they just thought he was a lot better than he was. Also, they panicked.

 

But if we want to talk Correia, I think we should probably start up a different thread. That topic has been beaten dead.

[Alex]

When a poster chooses to interpret rather generic statements from Terry Ryan, it really doesn't tell us much about Ryan. What it does do is tell us a great deal about that poster.

 

First, I think this post moved from discussing ideas to attacking a poster. I think we should get back to ideas.

 

Regarding "generic" statements, Ryan also said he wanted to the Twins to play meaningful games in August and September and not just April. He's also apologized this season in various ways for example, in one interview he said he let Gardy down implying the talent he acquired wasn't good enough. Again, we can choose to believe him or not on this issue (and I also happen to think he thought Hicks was ready, otherwise why not get a cheap fill in or let someone else- named Clete -play CF, not to mention they kept Hicks up a long time).

 

I tend to believe that he wanted the team to be competitive (he wasn't saying they were going to win the division) and I actually think his moves show that. I think he didn't go after higher upside pitching because it was out of his own price range and that trading two young, cost controlled OF for filling a longer term need than about rebuilding. It makes even more sense if you think that he believed Hicks was ready. A true rebuilding team keeps Hicks down until he's absolutely ready (and doesn't eat ML time) and a rebuilding team gives ABs to guys like Parmelee and Colabello instead of playing veterans who aren't hitting.

[Mike Sixel]

John, if he's turning up the heat, is anyone going to be accountable for this mess, other than "this starts and stops with me" but he keeps his (whomever "his" is) job?

 

I think either he and St. Peter thought this team was good (in which case they aren't good at their jobs), or they lied to sell tickets (in which case I would like them fired), or they really thought they could sign legit FAs for pennies on the dollar and that they would get better (which seems delusional and I'd want Ryan fired for that also unless he's learned his lesson).

[ashbury]

Getting that many K's looking is not a sustainable event in major league baseball. The hitters are too good at what they do.

 

Interestingly, wasn't that the Twins talent evaluators' knock on their own Anthony Slama?

[glunn]

Moderator note -

 

Please keep the focus on attacking ideas that you disagree with, NOT attacking other posters.

[Mr. Brooks]

Interestingly, wasn't that the Twins talent evaluators' knock on their own Anthony Slama?

 

I couldn't say, I don't remember them saying that. But if it is true that he has a very high K looking rate, then they would be right to be skeptical of that, as they should have been with Worley.

[ThePuck]

I couldn't say, I don't remember them saying that. But if it is true that he has a very high K looking rate, then they would be right to be skeptical of that, as they should have been with Worley.

 

Yeah, I remember them saying that about Slama. I remember not understanding why they cared one way or another how he got those strikeouts, but I got educated on that quickly.

[diehardtwinsfan]

There's certainly a continuum between "We're division contenders" and "We're rebuilding."

 

 

The funny thing, if I remember right, is that Ryan said they would be competitive, but somehow that's evolved into division contenders. As well, if memory serves me again, that was also before he traded Revere and Span. I also remember him saying on occasions that competing next season would be tough. To your point, I think you are spot on about Correia too.

 

On a separate note, and not related to John's post, I personally tend to get tired of people grabbing one quote and trying to use to summarize everything about what someone's goals/motives will be. It just strikes me as incredibly ignorant in many cases and really does a disservice to the person in question. There's so much more out there when it comes to things like running a team, promoting a minor leaguer, or where a free agent may sign. We all do it, myself included sometimes, but I really think this is a practice we should all try to stop.

[Mike Sixel]

It was not one quote, St. Peter said it over and over.

[Alex]

It was not one quote, St. Peter said it over and over.

 

Yeah, and it's better than no quote, which is what those arguing "the strategy was always a rebuild" have.

[Alex]

The funny thing, if I remember right, is that Ryan said they would be competitive, but somehow that's evolved into division contenders. As well, if memory serves me again, that was also before he traded Revere and Span. I also remember him saying on occasions that competing next season would be tough. To your point, I think you are spot on about Correia too.

 

On a separate note, and not related to John's post, I personally tend to get tired of people grabbing one quote and trying to use to summarize everything about what someone's goals/motives will be. It just strikes me as incredibly ignorant in many cases and really does a disservice to the person in question. There's so much more out there when it comes to things like running a team, promoting a minor leaguer, or where a free agent may sign. We all do it, myself included sometimes, but I really think this is a practice we should all try to stop.

 

I disagree on both points. First, I think that there are people that recognize there's a continuum and that very few if anyone who is using the quotes thought the Twins wanted to be a division contender.

 

Second, I think it's a bad idea to get into the ignorance debate, and insulting. Anyone paying attention to front office interviews during the offseason, spring training, and even during the season (again I'll point to hearing Ryan multiple times say he didn't do his job, not to mention Dave St. Peter's recent comments about available payroll) knows that this wasn't a one time quote.

 

I'll add that people supporting their ideas with a quote is actually a good thing. There's also nothing wrong with debating whether it was taken out of context, but in the case of this discussion, I don't think that's happening at all.

[Alex]

Some of us have been around sports long enough where we don't need someone to scream it from the top of the mountain to know that a team is rebuilding. Actually it's kind of funny. When the Twins do return to prominence, it appears there will be a handful of posters who never even realized the team was in a rebuild mode.

 

Another personal, inflammatory post. Can was stop being rude and actually discuss it? Most of us have been around sports our entire lives I'd guess.

 

Somehow this discussion has been turned around and we now have a theory that doesn't exist. I'm not arguing that the Twins aren't rebuilding at all, but I, and others, pointed out how neither their words, nor many of the moves are the act of a quickly rebuilding team. In answer to the question of the thread, my perspective is that:

 

1.) They could and should be making moves that better support a quick rebuild, but based on Ryan's comments and the moves he made it seems like he thought they would be competitive.

 

2) In terms of both, I'd argue you can rebuild and still be competitive, but the Twins aren't in an active rebuilding mode -- it's far more passive and they haven't been able to be competitive while being passive (waiting for prospects to develop).

 

Their rebuild approach could have been better (arguably they should have been in it since 2011) and their attempt at competitiveness is not only leading to another 90 loss season in 2013 but it looks like it will head that way in 2014, so that's not successful either. Rebuilding should be active and not just being terrible and waiting for prospects to mature. TRs only credit is trading two young CF, but there seem to be other opportunities that have been missed along the way.

 

To your point about "shouting it from the rooftops" I understand why he wouldn't want to shout it from the rooftops. However, people have also questioned whether Ryan actually said the team would be competitive, which he did. They've also said the moves seen are those of a rebuilding team. It's true that some (the CF trades), but many are not.