Judging A Rebuild

[drjim]

And all this goes back to the main question:

 

How do you a grade a rebuild?

 

The Twins have not done a good job turning over veterans for prospects at the right times, and those veterans haven't really helped them field an even somewhat competitive team during the rebuild.

 

They haven't done a good job of signing free agents that will help them get out of the rebuild more quickly or even really bridge the gap to a future team.

 

I really disagree with these two points. No significant prospect is currently blocked. The Twins have not failed to turn over from veterans to prospects in a timely manner. Though you are correct the current veterans are pretty mediocre.

 

The second point is much too early to determine. No free agent signed last offseason was going to expedite the process. Free agents the next two years are the ones that will supplement the core.

[Alex]

I don't think anyone is being blocked but I agree the team should not have all three next year and would be surprised if they do. I would also be surprised if more than one finish 2014 on the roster.

 

The wave is coming and they will be gone soon enough.

 

I think I realized part of the contention here is maybe the term "blocked." With the exception of Colabello, who I think has earned a chance at regular playing time, it's probably true that no one is really legitimately blocked.

 

That is different than finding out what players can do in the majors, and that would be worthwhile for players many have mentioned. It was, in fact, a major point people made in giving Dozier a chance to play this year. Carroll probably deserved the spot over him at 2B to start the season, but Carroll wasn't really part of long term plans and so ended up on the bench much of the season. I don't understand why the front office and the manager don't apply this philosophy in a couple of other spots.

[Alex]

I really disagree with these two points. No significant prospect is currently blocked. The Twins have not failed to turn over from veterans to prospects in a timely manner.

 

I don't see how this is debatable, honestly. Going back to 2011, the only significant trade(s) the team has made to help bring in young talent is to trade young major league talent (Span, Revere). They let a handful of veterans walk for nothing at that time (Nathan, Cuddyer, Kubel). It's looking unlikely that they will get anything out of their veteran FA signings from our recent offseasons Willingham, Doumit, Carroll, Correa, Pelfrey) or for Morneau, who will be leaving shortly.

 

If they wanted players to help with a 2014 or even 2015 rebuild those players would have ideally brought something back already. Anything they bring back now will likely be further out that that, and it's far more likely they bring back nothing at all of value.

 

The second point is much too early to determine. No free agent signed last offseason was going to expedite the process. Free agents the next two years are the ones that will supplement the core.

 

Maybe that's true to some extent, but they've only been treading water these last two seasons and have shown minimal improvement-- the FA they've signed haven't helped them much -- they're not really better off and certainly don't look to be climbing out of anything. In fact, the opposite may be true if Willingham and Doumit have similar seasons next year.

 

Who and where do you see them signing this offseason that could help be part of that? The only bet I'd make is that they sign a veteran 1B. Beyond that, I really don't see them signing anyone and I bet they again leave the FA SP market alone, or at least don't make any signings of significance.

[jokin]

I really disagree with these two points. No significant prospect is currently blocked. The Twins have not failed to turn over from veterans to prospects in a timely manner. Though you are correct the current veterans are pretty mediocre.

 

The second point is much too early to determine. No free agent signed last offseason was going to expedite the process. Free agents the next two years are the ones that will supplement the core.

 

The bolded abolutist statements are simply not true and I have to take issue with them. Signing and trading recently-signed FAs for prospects could most certainly have expedited the process (in a rebuild you have to trade the tradeable guys who don't fit into your long-term plan- particularly when they have "career years" like Willingham and Doumit). And why would Ryan suddenly abandon his "passive rebuild" MO and sign higher grade, "supplemental" FAs the next 2 years? It's simply not in his nature. He starts out the process of attempting to sign legitimate FA SP with a severe inferiority complex and only ends up with heartburn and heartaches by scooping up the retreads. The same essentially goes for position players, he likely won't take a legit shot at realistic bidding for an Abreu or the second-tier Int FAs, even a Willngham-type signing seems forever in his rearview mirror, given how that's working out.

 

Before we all pat ourselves and Terry Ryan on the back and start scheduling the 2015 "parade", as suggested on another thread, it would be more realistic to realize that not all of these prospects are going to work out, in fact a significant minority will either flame out or suffer career-altering injury. The Starting Pitching, although certainly likely to be better, will need more than the "supplementation" efforts that Ryan's track record suggests he can provide.

[cmb0252]

Signing Tanaka would jump start the rebuilding process in a hurry. Hopefully they like what they see while in Japan!

[Thrylos]

He is blocking a player and that's what happens when you give the manager a choice by putting him on the roster. As with other vets. The team shouldn't be investing more than a year into these kinds of vets at this time. They are recyclable.

 

One of the (very few) things that Ryan has done correctly lately, has been keeping Blackburn and his salary (the highest paid P in the Twins) in the minors. Same with Nishioka and his salary. I think that if Doumit does not perform, he will follow the example...

 

But for a couple of weeks earlier this season (before his concussion) Doumit was the Twins' best player. Give that to this manager and he will continue playing him (as Brock said...)

[TheLeviathan]

By the same logic being used here we could have played Jamey Carrol at second and not actually blocked Dozier this year based solely on his initial struggles. Had we done so one of the few bright spots wouldn't have happened this year.

 

We ar too quickly writing off Parmelee in the name of a horrific defender with only slightly better offensive stats. You don't judge a block based on how the young guy has done thus far, this is a conversation of potential. Of which, yes, even Escobar has more of for the Twins much less Parms.

 

thank goodness we didnt follow this same advice at 2b....or we would really have few bright spots.

[IdahoPilgrim]

One of the (very few) things that Ryan has done correctly lately, has been keeping Blackburn and his salary (the highest paid P in the Twins) in the minors. Same with Nishioka and his salary. I think that if Doumit does not perform, he will follow the example...

But for a couple of weeks earlier this season (before his concussion) Doumit was the Twins' best player. Give that to this manager and he will continue playing him (as Brock said...)

 

Can't happen. 5-year veteran. Both Blackburn and Nishioka could be forced to go down. Doumit can't. You can release him (and pay his salary) but you can't send him to Rochester unless he agrees to it.

[Alex]

By the same logic being used here we could have played Jamey Carrol at second and not actually blocked Dozier this year based solely on his initial struggles. Had we done so one of the few bright spots wouldn't have happened this year.

 

We ar too quickly writing off Parmelee in the name of a horrific defender with only slightly better offensive stats. You don't judge a block based on how the young guy has done thus far, this is a conversation of potential. Of which, yes, even Escobar has more of for the Twins much less Parms.

 

thank goodness we didnt follow this same advice at 2b....or we would really have few bright spots.

 

While I advocating signing a MI because I didn't think Dozier would really be a regular starter in the majors, they put him out there and let him play and it looks like I'll be wrong about that, which I'm more than happy to admit. I don't get why they haven't applied this philosophy with other players mentioned who have shown that they can hit AAA pitching.

[jokin]

Signing Tanaka would jump start the rebuilding process in a hurry. Hopefully they like what they see while in Japan!

 

Even more hopefully, different evaluators are utilized than those from the last foray to Japan....

[Teflon]

I thought this was a post about Judge Reinhold. My bad.

 

[Otto von Ballpark]

That's a pretty unfair comparison. You're totally ignoring the elite positional depth in the minors. The Twins don't need to trade Mauer to restock the minor leagues. We're probably closer to that 2000 team currently than the 1997 team, imho.

 

Well, I didn't mean it was a perfect comparison. But the 2000 Twins were much younger than the 2013 club. The 2000 Twins, despite some middling stats, already had most of the key position players of the 2001-2004 contenders in place at the MLB level. They also had 4 average or above starting pitchers between the ages of 24-27, all netting 24+ starts at the MLB level that year. I am not getting that impression from the 2013 Twins.

 

Hence my choice of the 1997 club. It was older, like the 2013 club, with one star and some underperforming vets on offense, and the pitching staff apart from Radke and a few relievers was mostly a mess. And while they didn't have a Buxton, the 1997 org had some talent on the farm, but it was generally a few years away like the current Twins (Walker #7 prospect on BA's list, Rivas, Hunter, Ortiz, and Milton all cracked the BA Top 100 before or after that season, plus Cuddyer, LeCroy, and Restovich were their top 3 picks in the 1997 draft and later all climbed into the top 50).

 

Obviously Buxton is cruising to consensus #1 and Sano is near the top, but I think you might be exaggerating how much "elite" depth the Twins have, or anyone can realistically have, in the minors. Minor league talent alone is not going to make the Twins contenders in 2014.

 

I think the Twins best case is competing next in 2016 unless Ryan can diverge from his earlier rebuild and augment with quality free agents (or international signees).

[jokin]

In the summer teams don't trade a lot of guys who are under contract beyond the current season. They are looking at next week, the pennant race - not planning for next season. So for the Twins to trade one of Doumit or Willingham at this point would probably not gain much return compared to trading either of them this offseason or at this point next season.

 

Incidentally this is why I believe the Twins should be buyers with some of the "rebuilding" clubs. They are in a unique position to be trading for established, contracted talent right now while the better half of the league is preoccupied with the pennant race. After the offseason starts, all clubs will be eyeballing your multi-year players and prices could go up.

 

A team like the Phillies. Ruben Amaro is under a lot of heat right now to go young.

 

Might be a package involving a couple of our young outfielders could bring back a guy like Cole Hamels.

 

Couple that with a Tanaka signing, another 3 or 4 FAs, and the rebuild will finally start getting some legs.

 

This is a great point, a franchise that seeks to gain advantage through inefficiencies like the Twins should appreciate it better- if only they weren't so concerned about Priority #1- coming in under the current fiscal year budget. IMO, and I've stated as such at the times in question, the Twins have missed taking advantage of numerous August trading opportunities with motivated sellers in '11, '12 and likely will again in '13.

[PseudoSABR]

Minor league talent alone is not going to make the Twins contenders in 2014.

I don't think that it will either, of course. But if we're judging a rebuilding effort that's in mid-stream, I'm not sure that 2014 is a fair goal line.

 

The veteran's that are currently on the team, aren't being counted on for the next rebuild, so I fail to see how the median age of the current club reflects how their future will play out. The 1997 comparison seems more apt to the 2011 club. I think we're further along in the rebuild than you're readily giving credit, but really that's just a matter of opinion/belief.

[Alex]

 

The veteran's that are currently on the team, aren't being counted on for the next rebuild, so I fail to see how the median age of the current club reflects how their future will play out. The 1997 comparison seems more apt to the 2011 club. I think we're further along in the rebuild than you're readily giving credit, but really that's just a matter of opinion/belief.

 

I guess I'd also have a hard time saying that a rebuild is "further along" when the only player that I think is above 50% to have a good full major league season in the near future is Arcia. Beyond that, there are a ton of question marks and that's even more true of the pitching, which is incredibly tenuous.

[Otto von Ballpark]

I don't think that it will either, of course. But if we're judging a rebuilding effort that's in mid-stream, I'm not sure that 2014 is a fair goal line.

 

The veteran's that are currently on the team, aren't being counted on for the next rebuild, so I fail to see how the median age of the current club reflects how their future will play out. The 1997 comparison seems more apt to the 2011 club. I think we're further along in the rebuild than you're readily giving credit, but really that's just a matter of opinion/belief.

 

I wasn't really trying to judge the rebuild.

 

You compared the 2013 team to the 2000 team, which was competitive in the following season.

 

I don't think we're anywhere near that point, and the age/composition of the 2013 MLB roster is proof of that -- we've got old guys and AAA players all over the place. Those guys have to play out their contracts or get replaced, and the replacements need time to get here and develop. So I think we're ~3 years away, at least. Like the 1997-1998 clubs.

 

UNLESS, of course, we take advantage of other avenues of player acquisition. Not sure if TR is willing or even capable of doing that, though.

[golfboy1]

And all this goes back to the main question:

 

How do you a grade a rebuild?

 

The Twins have not done a good job turning over veterans for prospects at the right times, and those veterans haven't really helped them field an even somewhat competitive team during the rebuild.

 

They haven't done a good job of signing free agents that will help them get out of the rebuild more quickly or even really bridge the gap to a future team.

 

Besides Dozier possibly, they haven't properly identified/developed/given a chance to younger players that can take over a position and make use of valuable major league time.

 

The most successful aspect of the rebuild is in acquiring talent by trading already cost controlled and relatively young players in Revere and Span.

 

They've done a good job of making smart decisions in the draft.

 

For me, measuring how well a rebuild goes is how quickly it looks like the Twins are going to get out of it. At this point, their decision making with the major league team has been painfully slow and awful, but they've done a decent job strengthening the minor league system.

 

This makes the rebuild a passive one that will be a significant wait.

 

This is an accurate assessment.

 

Compared to 12 months ago the ML team is marginally better. Ryan did an excellent job trading for Mays & Meyers since we need high upside arms more than anything. They did a good job grabbing Pressley in the rule 5..he looks like a good arm for the future.

 

I like Dozier & Florimon up the middle. They are a big improvement over previous years MI. That's about it for the good news.

 

I never thought the Twins had a chance to compete this year so I wish they would have done more to improve long term. If they could have traded Willinghamm. Doumit or Burton last off season for good prospects they should have. This winter they should listen to offers on every one of their RP....including Perkins. I don't think they have a hitter worth trading ...maybe Willinghamm but it's probably better to hope he rebounds & trade him mid season.

 

They could/should be more aggressive on the international front. Signing a few big time talents from the IF would really help speed up the process.

 

 

The future looks a lot better than 12 months ago. They didn't have Meyers, Mays or Stewart.... & Gibson was more of a question mark. Sano & Buxton have made huge jumps & it looks like there are a lot of others prospects who could make an impact further down the road. I think we are going to have to suffer thru 2014 but hopefully Meyer, Mays, Sano, Pinto , Rosario, Santana & a few others at least get their feet wet so they can actually contribute in 2015.I expect Buxton will be up by 2015 also.

[Otto von Ballpark]

And actually, the 2011 Twins are probably a better comp for the 1995 Twins. Going off memory, the 1995 Twins had some veteran pitchers who were no longer getting it done, and it suddenly became apparent that the minor league cupboard was mostly bare. The specifics are a little different -- Puckett, Radke, the various hometown veteran farewell tours, etc. -- but the timeline is about right. It was also right after a GM change, so that matches up with post-2011.

 

Rebuilding from within takes time. It took that Twins team about 6 years, even though they had some real good successes in player development (no super-duper-stars until Santana, but a lot of solid MLB starters, in the lineup, rotation, and bullpen).

[TheLeviathan]

I think one thing worth considering is whether the Revere deal still looks like the right move. I'm on the record as loving it and I think there is a strong chance we sold high.

 

But man, it sure feels like the return has been less than hoped for. May had a real nice start recently but he's still very risky as a future rotation bet. Worley has been a disaster. Couple that with Hicks' struggles and I have more doubt now than I expected.

 

i think Ryan was still right to make that move, but it isn't playing out as well as hoped.

[jokin]

 

Ryan did an excellent job trading for Mays & Meyers since we need high upside arms more than anything.

 

 

 

 

 

 

They didn't have Meyers, Mays or...

 

Was "Mays" and "Meyers" a typo, or are you hoping for 2 of each "high upside arm" coming in trade?

[jokin]

I think one thing worth considering is whether the Revere deal still looks like the right move. I'm on the record as loving it and I think there is a strong chance we sold high.

 

But man, it sure feels like the return has been less than hoped for. May had a real nice start recently but he's still very risky as a future rotation bet. Worley has been a disaster. Couple that with Hicks' struggles and I have more doubt now than I expected.

 

 

"Conventional Wisdom" remains in effect until "Actual Reality" finally smacks it in the head with a 2X4 or elevates it to genius-game-changing-thought.

 

The fact is, the truth on the final merit of the trade is still a moving target, let's revisit the topic a year from now and see if it's collected ether more barbs or bouquets- or something inbetween, ie, the "right move" can still turn out being a disaster, and one has to wonder if Ryan had sufficient time to do total and complete due diligence on both Worley and May, given that it was Amaro who unexpectedly approached Ryan on his hot deal, and not vice versa.

[nicksaviking]

Even more hopefully, different evaluators are utilized than those from the last foray to Japan....

 

Surely the Twins weren't the only team to evaluate Asian talent soley by using Youtube.

[Mike Sixel]

In theory the Revere trade was the right kind of trade to make, in practice, it is Ryan and the scouts who need to be right in the execution of the theory....I hope these are different scouts than those that recommend ML "talent" to acquire (Marquis, Pelfrey, KC as examples).

[drjim]

I don't see how this is debatable, honestly. Going back to 2011, the only significant trade(s) the team has made to help bring in young talent is to trade young major league talent (Span, Revere). They let a handful of veterans walk for nothing at that time (Nathan, Cuddyer, Kubel). It's looking unlikely that they will get anything out of their veteran FA signings from our recent offseasons Willingham, Doumit, Carroll, Correa, Pelfrey) or for Morneau, who will be leaving shortly.

 

If they wanted players to help with a 2014 or even 2015 rebuild those players would have ideally brought something back already. Anything they bring back now will likely be further out that that, and it's far more likely they bring back nothing at all of value.

 

 

 

Maybe that's true to some extent, but they've only been treading water these last two seasons and have shown minimal improvement-- the FA they've signed haven't helped them much -- they're not really better off and certainly don't look to be climbing out of anything. In fact, the opposite may be true if Willingham and Doumit have similar seasons next year.

 

Who and where do you see them signing this offseason that could help be part of that? The only bet I'd make is that they sign a veteran 1B. Beyond that, I really don't see them signing anyone and I bet they again leave the FA SP market alone, or at least don't make any signings of significance.

 

My mistake I misunderstood what you meant by "turn over". I would call that "flip". Your criticism is valid but I think a little overstated. The current vets never really had the value some people think.

[drjim]

By the same logic being used here we could have played Jamey Carrol at second and not actually blocked Dozier this year based solely on his initial struggles. Had we done so one of the few bright spots wouldn't have happened this year.

 

We ar too quickly writing off Parmelee in the name of a horrific defender with only slightly better offensive stats. You don't judge a block based on how the young guy has done thus far, this is a conversation of potential. Of which, yes, even Escobar has more of for the Twins much less Parms.

 

thank goodness we didnt follow this same advice at 2b....or we would really have few bright spots.

 

I admire your devotion to Parmelee but he doesn't have the bat speed. Reps won't change that.

 

The fairer comparison is Plouffe. He has the tools but can't put it together and they still run him out.

[drjim]

I think one thing worth considering is whether the Revere deal still looks like the right move. I'm on the record as loving it and I think there is a strong chance we sold high.

 

But man, it sure feels like the return has been less than hoped for. May had a real nice start recently but he's still very risky as a future rotation bet. Worley has been a disaster. Couple that with Hicks' struggles and I have more doubt now than I expected.

 

i think Ryan was still right to make that move, but it isn't playing out as well as hoped.

 

There is a lot of team control left for all three players. Could easily end up "meh" for both teams.

[TheLeviathan]

I admire your devotion to Parmelee but he doesn't have the bat speed. Reps won't change that.

 

The fairer comparison is Plouffe. He has the tools but can't put it together and they still run him out.

 

Changing his technique to generate more bat speed and then giving reps with the adjustment might. After all, that's exactly what propelled Dozier into relevancy again. (Not the same issue per se, but not wholly dissimilar either)

 

We're a bad team, Parms killed AAA, he needs more reps. It's not hurting anything just like Plouffe.

[Alex]

My mistake I misunderstood what you meant by "turn over". I would call that "flip". Your criticism is valid but I think a little overstated. The current vets never really had the value some people think.

 

But that's the odd thing about this argument, right? If they were untradable last season for anything of value, they're certainly not going to become more valuable next season. And if, they don't have value to be traded, ie no one wants them over their current players, why are people going to bat in this thread for them to be in the starting lineup for the Twins?

 

Also, "flip" means to "turn over," but no harm and I appreciate clearing that up.

[Guest USAFChief]

Changing his technique to generate more bat speed and then giving reps with the adjustment might. After all, that's exactly what propelled Dozier into relevancy again. (Not the same issue per se, but not wholly dissimilar either)

 

We're a bad team, Parms killed AAA, he needs more reps. It's not hurting anything just like Plouffe.

"Parms" has the 10th most PAs on the Twins in 2013. He's also "killing" AAA to the tune of a .670-ish OPS this year.

 

Again, while there is at least some merit to the idea that Doumit is taking PAs away from Parmelee (unlike the Escobar, Hicks or "possible minor trade" examples), the real culprit isn't Doumit, Gardy or TR...it's Parmelee. He was given the opportunity, he coughed it up and has done little to force another look. He'll most likely get future opportunities anyway, so I still don't understand the immediate need to purge the Twins of everyone with past major league success.

[drjim]

But that's the odd thing about this argument, right? If they were untradable last season for anything of value, they're certainly not going to become more valuable next season. And if, they don't have value to be traded, ie no one wants them over their current players, why are people going to bat in this thread for them to be in the starting lineup for the Twins?

 

Also, "flip" means to "turn over," but no harm and I appreciate clearing that up.

 

I don't know if that is true. Veteran bats can have value in the last year of a deal. Less risk for the acquiring team.