Hendriks

[drjim]

Good stuff Oxtung but I think you really break down the fine line walked by pitchers with mediocre stuff.

[big dog]

Hendricks is a tease- he threw a really good game against the White Sox a couple weeks ago, then Cleveland lights him up. I'd like to see him get regular starts the rest of the year, as others have mentioned. He might still pull it together. Besides, what's the harm? It's not like we have a ton of other young arms to bring up.

[Oxtung]

Good stuff Oxtung but I think you really break down the fine line walked by pitchers with mediocre stuff.

 

Very well could be. I do find his count splits interesting. Those are pretty significant differences. Clearly he is able to do something right when he is ahead in the count.

[Shane Wahl]

Very well could be. I do find his count splits interesting. Those are pretty significant differences. Clearly he is able to do something right when he is ahead in the count.

 

That was highly informative. Thanks.

[Guest USAFChief]

Your splits by count don't really tell us much, Oxtung. Splits by count by OPS for the AL as a whole:

 

0-0 .894

1-0 .891

2-0 .906

3-0 1.699

0-1 .787

1-1 .843

2-1 .952

3-1 1.373

0-2 .388

1-2 .431

3-2 .809

 

Basically, every pitcher is much tougher when he's ahead in the count, and much worse when behind. If anything, Hendriks' numbers show he's even more susceptible to this phenomenon than the average AL pitcher...IMO that's because he has worse than average stuff.

 

I think a better gauge for pitchers, in any case, is not so much what happens on a 1-1 count (OPS is negatively influenced, for example, by the simple fact you can't walk a hitter in a 1-1 count), but rather what ultimately happens in a PA after a given count. What is the result of a PA, for example, after Hendriks reaches 1-1 on a hitter, or reaches 1-2.

[cmathewson]

Hendriks is no Slowey, not that Slowey ever was any great shakes. But at least he had a couple of good years in the majors. Hendriks has had a couple of good starts in the majors out of 24. In the other 22 starts, he just hasn't had the consistent secondary stuff or the consistent command to get major league hitters out. The difference between AAA hitters and good major league hitters is huge. Major league hitters take close pitches and wait for mistakes. And he doesn't have the focus or something to avoid mistakes.

 

Yeah, he's 24, but I subscribe to the notion that a guy gets three or four chances to succeed, then you give another guy a chance. If he becomes a late bloomer for some other org (a la Paul Abbott), fine. Don't block another guy with a guy who might become something useful. Now, in our case, I don't know who that guy is. So you might as well run him out there. But it's a sad state of affairs when we have to rely on a guy who has maybe a 5% chance of ever being a useful pitcher.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I have seen many people make this claim but it really doesn't seem to track with his stats. While strikeouts would be nice he has been effective when he is ahead in the count. It's when he's behind that he gets crushed.

 

As a footnote, look at that 0-2 OPS for Hendiks. Hitters are OPSing .553 on an 0-2 count and that is way too high.

 

In comparison, Kevin Correia has a .389 OPS with an 0-2 count. Mike Pelfrey? .370 OPS.

 

Samuel Deduno has a .257 OPS with an 0-2 count.

 

SSS and all but I think that's a fine example of why Hendriks has failed as an MLB starter. He's not pitching, he's throwing. And he's leaving way too many balls in the zone in pitcher's counts.

[Oxtung]

Your splits by count don't really tell us much, Oxtung. Splits by count by OPS for the AL as a whole:

 

0-0 .894

1-0 .891

2-0 .906

3-0 1.699

0-1 .787

1-1 .843

2-1 .952

3-1 1.373

0-2 .388

1-2 .431

3-2 .809

 

Basically, every pitcher is much tougher when he's ahead in the count, and much worse when behind. If anything, Hendriks' numbers show he's even more susceptible to this phenomenon than the average AL pitcher...IMO that's because he has worse than average stuff.

 

I think a better gauge for pitchers, in any case, is not so much what happens on a 1-1 count (OPS is negatively influenced, for example, by the simple fact you can't walk a hitter in a 1-1 count), but rather what ultimately happens in a PA after a given count. What is the result of a PA, for example, after Hendriks reaches 1-1 on a hitter, or reaches 1-2.

 

You're missing the point of that section of the post. I wasn't arguing that those numbers said anything about how good a pitcher he is. I was merely showing that his "out pitch" wasn't causing his problems. That has nothing to do with how other pitchers pitch.

[Guest USAFChief]

You're missing the point of that section of the post. I wasn't arguing that those numbers said anything about how good a pitcher he is. I was merely showing that his "out pitch" wasn't causing his problems. That has nothing to do with how other pitchers pitch.

I guess I would look at his numbers and say his "out pitch" is exactly the problem, as in he doesn't have one. As Brock points out, hitters have a .553 OPS on an 0-2 count against him. That's...terrible.

[Oxtung]

As a footnote, look at that 0-2 OPS for Hendiks. Hitters are OPSing .553 on an 0-2 count and that is way too high.

 

In comparison, Kevin Correia has a .389 OPS with an 0-2 count. Mike Pelfrey? .370 OPS.

 

Samuel Deduno has a .257 OPS with an 0-2 count.

 

SSS and all but I think that's a fine example of why Hendriks has failed as an MLB starter. He's not pitching, he's throwing. And he's leaving way too many balls in the zone in pitcher's counts.

 

I found a great stat for this. sOPS+. It measures the how OPS against a pitcher, in this case Hendriks, compares to the league average OPS against in the same split. So >100 is bad. <100 is good. This only seems to be available after full seasons so the data for 2013 isn't available and it doesn't work for careers. The data below is from 2012 for Correia and Hendriks since that is Hendriks largest sample and 2011 for Pelfrey since he didn't pitch in 2012. "Ahead" is when the pitcher is ahead in the count and "behind" is when the batter is ahead in the count.

 

[TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]

[/TD]

[TD]0-0

1-0

2-0

3-0

0-1

1-1

2-1

3-1

0-2

1-2

2-2

3-2

Ahead

Behind

Hendriks

168

128

132

-11

88

209

204

174

147

99

47

132

110

140

Correia

78

64

142

NA*

68

68

135

171

257

82

144

87

115

96

Pelfrey

104

88

130

234

73

70

123

118

24

143

139

161

98

126

[/TABLE]

*only pitched to 3 batters with this count.

 

Again, the data seems to show that Hendriks is ok, not great, but ok when he is ahead in the count. He just truly gets crushed when he is behind in the count. I will say however that this all fits under the SSS warning. Everything I've found suggests his problem is not finishing batters off but rather staying ahead in the count.

[Thegrin]

All these stats point to one thing. Hendricks has not been a very good starting pitcher so far.

Has he shown enough to get a full season ? I am not a pitching evaluator, but if he has a 50% chance of having a quality start, then the Twins should have Hendriks pitching every 1/5 day. If the Twins don't think he has a 50% chance now, but might develop, they should keep him in AAA. If they don't think he will develop into a 50% QS pitcher then they should cut him lose. duh ??? That is what they are doing. Why are WE discussing it.

[Mr. Brooks]

Hendriks is no Slowey, not that Slowey ever was any great shakes. But at least he had a couple of good years in the majors. Hendriks has had a couple of good starts in the majors out of 24. In the other 22 starts, he just hasn't had the consistent secondary stuff or the consistent command to get major league hitters out. The difference between AAA hitters and good major league hitters is huge. Major league hitters take close pitches and wait for mistakes. And he doesn't have the focus or something to avoid mistakes.

 

Yeah, he's 24, but I subscribe to the notion that a guy gets three or four chances to succeed, then you give another guy a chance. If he becomes a late bloomer for some other org (a la Paul Abbott), fine. Don't block another guy with a guy who might become something useful. Now, in our case, I don't know who that guy is. So you might as well run him out there. But it's a sad state of affairs when we have to rely on a guy who has maybe a 5% chance of ever being a useful pitcher.

 

I really think you are being prejiduced by his terrible W/L record.

I'm not saying he's been great, or even good, but looking through his game logs, I'm not sure it's as bad as you make it out to be.

IMO, of his 24 starts, he's had:

8 good starts.

8 bad stars.

8 mediocre starts.

 

I think that is probably what you would expect from a guy as young as him, especially one who was never an elite prospect to begin with.

He has had some really good performances that resulted in an L or ND. Including an 8 inning CG last year where a single unearned run hung an L on him. He's also had several performances that are not great, but just mediocre, the kind that often result in ND's for many pitchers, but Hendriks has gotten the loss due to no run support.

I really think if his record was something like 5-8, instead of 1-12 (which it easily could be), and the rest of his stats were exactly the same, that he would get more benefit of the doubt.

It's also of note that his career xFIP is 4.58. I'm guessing that the huge difference between his career ERA and xFIP is due to his well above average HR/FB rate. While it may just be that his stuff is easy to square up (leading to harder hit fly balls than average), I don't think that is the case, as his babip is pretty well in line with the league. Pitchers whose stuff is easier to square up generally have inflated babips.

Of course, even if his ERA were 4.58, that is still not great, but I think most people would think it was acceptable given his age.

[Thegrin]

Hendriks starts in August

 

[TABLE]

Day

[TD=width: 43]Date[/TD]

[TD=width: 53]Vs[/TD]

[TD=width: 68]Pitcher[/TD]

[TD=width: 40]W-L[/TD]

[TD=width: 42]Score[/TD]

[TD=width: 36]IP[/TD]

[TD=width: 39]Runs[/TD]

[TD=width: 32]QS[/TD]

[TD=width: 81]Comment[/TD]

Fri

9

ChiSox

Hendriks

W

3 – 2

6.1

2

Y

[/TD]

Sat

24

Cle

Hendriks

L

2 – 7

4.1

7

N

Fri

30

Tex

Hendriks

W

3 – 2

6

2

Y

[TD]

[/TABLE]

[Larsbars08]

He's still younger than Kyle Gibson. He's had a bad year in AAA, but the year before he was nearly unhittable. This is his second real stint in the Majors since last season. There are not enough MLB ready starting pitchers in the system right now to actually block him. Let him pitch till the end of the season, with a shot to make the rotation next year. We need to find out what we've got with him.