Aww, Morneau. Can we keep him?

[Alex]

So, the TLDR version of this thread is, "No."

[nicksaviking]

I think it would be best to trade Morneau to a contender and hope he gets a ring. He says he wants to stay in MN, if true, they can re-sign him, 10-5 rights will be gone and Morneau would come back to town a seasoned vet who suddenly remembers what it is like to play on a winning ball club. A rebuilding team needs some experience, I sure don't trust a bunch of 24-year-olds to learn how to play and win like Major Leaguers on their own.

 

I'd understand if Morneau isn't back next year, but I also don't mind having him on this team as much as others do however. The Twins have a lot of 1B/DH types, but most should be moved. Doumit needs to go, as should Willingham. I'd like to see more of Parmelee/Colabello, but the Twins aren't playing them now even during this terrible season. I guess if Morneau is moved for the rest of the year, some evaluation could be done on both of those guys.

 

However, let's say the Twins gave Morneau a hypothetical three year deal, make it two if you like. Now take a hypothetical poll, over the life of that two or three year deal, who will be a more productive player, Morneau, Parmelee or Colabello? We can also ask that question in regards to the veteran DH types, Morneau, Willingham or Doumit? I'd put the odds very high on Morneau being the most productive even if he is only league average or slightly below.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think it would be best to trade Morneau to a contender and hope he gets a ring. He says he wants to stay in MN, if true, they can re-sign him, 10-5 rights will be gone and Morneau would come back to town a seasoned vet who suddenly remembers what it is like to play on a winning ball club. A rebuilding team needs some experience, I sure don't trust a bunch of 24-year-olds to learn how to play and win like Major Leaguers on their own.

 

I'd understand if Morneau isn't back next year, but I also don't mind having him on this team as much as others do however. The Twins have a lot of 1B/DH types, but most should be moved. Doumit needs to go, as should Willingham. I'd like to see more of Parmelee/Colabello, but the Twins aren't playing them now even during this terrible season. I guess if Morneau is moved for the rest of the year, some evaluation could be done on both of those guys.

 

However, let's say the Twins gave Morneau a hypothetical three year deal, make it two if you like. Now take a hypothetical poll, over the life of that two or three year deal, who will be a more productive player, Morneau, Parmelee or Colabello? We can also ask that question in regards to the veteran DH types, Morneau, Willingham or Doumit? I'd put the odds very high on Morneau being the most productive even if he is only league average or slightly below.

 

Why are those the only options? (Morneau, Parm, Cola)

We could sign someone better. A fringe prospect could come out of nowhere and become a productive first baseman. Miguel Sano might come up here and not stick at 3B, yes the reports are that he should, at least short term, but keep in mind that the "reports" also said Plouffe and Dozier were SS's, things can change when you get to "the show".

My point is that you have plenty to gain by moving on from Morneau (even if the odds are low), but there is nothing really to gain by keeping him. He's a replacement level 1B, it's called REPLACEMENT LEVEL for a reason. We can plug someone in there at the league minimum salary, without tying our hands to a multi year deal, and get similar production.

[Rick Blaine]

His offensive numbers aren't too far off of Prince Fielder's numbers and everyone in Detroit loves Prince!

 

Justin [TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TR=class: full hl, bgcolor: #FFFFAA !important]

[TD=align: left]2013[/TD]

[TD=align: right]32[/TD]

[TD=align: left]MIN[/TD]

[TD=align: left]AL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]118[/TD]

[TD=align: right]508[/TD]

[TD=align: right]464[/TD]

[TD=align: right]52[/TD]

[TD=align: right]124[/TD]

[TD=align: right]31[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]15[/TD]

[TD=align: right]72[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]33[/TD]

[TD=align: right]91[/TD]

[TD=align: right].267[/TD]

[TD=align: right].321[/TD]

[TD=align: right].431[/TD]

[TD=align: right].752[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

Prince

[TABLE=class: sortable stats_table row_summable]

[TR=class: full hl, bgcolor: #FFFFAA !important]

[TD=align: left]2013[/TD]

[TD=align: right]29[/TD]

[TD=align: left]DET[/TD]

[TD=align: left]AL[/TD]

[TD=align: right]125[/TD]

[TD=align: right]558[/TD]

[TD=align: right]488[/TD]

[TD=align: right]63[/TD]

[TD=align: right]127[/TD]

[TD=align: right]28[/TD]

[TD=align: right]0[/TD]

[TD=align: right]20[/TD]

[TD=align: right]87[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]1[/TD]

[TD=align: right]61[/TD]

[TD=align: right]97[/TD]

[TD=align: right].260[/TD]

[TD=align: right].348[/TD]

[TD=align: right].441[/TD]

[TD=align: right].788[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

Granted- his injury history is an issue. But he is the best we have and a fan favorite. I would like to keep him if a deal can be made.

[Mr. Brooks]

Locking up a league average player who will be 33 years old just because "he's the best we have" doesn't seem to me like a method for improving your ball club. It seems to me like a method of making sure your ball club stays exactly the same.

 

The thought process with a 90+ loss team (3 consecutive seasons) should be to look at each position and see where you can improve, not strive to stay the same.

 

BTW: Prince is having a down year, whereas Morneau's season so far is pretty consistent with his last 2 seasons. Prince is also 3 years younger.

It's a fairly good bet that Prince will bounce back next year, Justin not so much.

[drjim]

I wouldn't bet too much on Prince. He is exactly the type of hitter that falls hard and fast. Only 7 years left on that contact!

[Mr. Brooks]

I wouldn't bet too much on Prince. He is exactly the type of hitter that falls hard and fast. Only 7 years left on that contact!

 

Can you list examples of career .900+ OPS hitters that suddenly fell off a cliff at age 29?

 

(Not including guys like Morneau whose decline was due to injury, you can't predict that. )

[Monkeypaws]

I understand the qualifying offer stuff, and we don't want to do that.

 

Still, since when in early 30s over the hill? Cabrera is 30; Ortiz 37; Cuddyer 34; Hunter 38; Utley 34; etc.

 

Morneau has had more than concussions - just last season he had wrist and neck issues.

 

You can interpret his recent success as a fluke, but I see it as a guy who is finally 100% and is rediscovering his stroke.

 

Lastly, unless the Twins sign up someone this off-season to replace him, I fail to see how a weak hitting team losing their top HR and RBI guy makes them better.

 

Trade and re-sign would be okay, but re-sign to a couple-three year deal after the season at half his current salary would work for me.

[Alex]

Can you list examples of career .900+ OPS hitters that suddenly fell off a cliff at age 29?

 

(Not including guys like Morneau whose decline was due to injury, you can't predict that. )

 

Doubtful that they fall off a cliff, but I read an essay by Gabe Kapler that cites research that indicates the average peak age for MLB players is 28, especially in terms of power. So, it wouldn't be surprising if Fielder's (not unlike Pujols) best years are behind them. Even more reason to take a pass on Morneau, btw.

[rickyriolo]

Bottom Line: Twins are re-building. Bringing back an aging Morneau to play 1st base will only lead to more stagnation. Need to go younger & cheaper

[Monkeypaws]

Doubtful that they fall off a cliff, but I read an essay by Gabe Kapler that cites research that indicates the average peak age for MLB players is 28, especially in terms of power. So, it wouldn't be surprising if Fielder's (not unlike Pujols) best years are behind them. Even more reason to take a pass on Morneau, btw.

 

But wouldn't you agree that 1B is one a field position in baseball with above average longevity?

[Mr. Brooks]

I understand the qualifying offer stuff, and we don't want to do that.

 

Still, since when in early 30s over the hill? Cabrera is 30; Ortiz 37; Cuddyer 34; Hunter 38; Utley 34; etc.

 

Morneau has had more than concussions - just last season he had wrist and neck issues.

 

You can interpret his recent success as a fluke, but I see it as a guy who is finally 100% and is rediscovering his stroke.

 

Lastly, unless the Twins sign up someone this off-season to replace him, I fail to see how a weak hitting team losing their top HR and RBI guy makes them better.

 

Trade and re-sign would be okay, but re-sign to a couple-three year deal after the season at half his current salary would work for me.

 

The wrist and neck issues were not last year, they were 2011.

 

He had surgery on the neck in June 2011:

 

Twins' Justin Morneau to have neck surgery - USATODAY.com

 

He had surgery on the wrist in September 2011:

 

Justin Morneau undergoes minor wrist surgery - Minnesota Twins news | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

 

Health has not been the issue in 2012 or 2013. This is just who he is post concussion, it is time to accept reality.

I think it is your heart and not your head telling you otherwise, but hey if that is your opinion, not much I can say to change it.

 

That said, what if you are wrong?

What if we sign him to a 3 year deal and end up stuck with a below average or average 33, 34 and 35 year old first baseman for the next 3 years, who cannot be traded? How does that help us get better?

[drjim]

Can you list examples of career .900+ OPS hitters that suddenly fell off a cliff at age 29?

 

(Not including guys like Morneau whose decline was due to injury, you can't predict that. )

 

Fall off a cliff is hyberbole, but this could be his new normal. Big body, limited athleticism, and old man skills.

[Mr. Brooks]

But wouldn't you agree that 1B is one a field position in baseball with above average longevity?

 

You cannot discuss Morneau as if he is just another baseball player.

Most baseball players do not have such a drastic, career altering injury as Morneau had.

He is no longer the same player as he was pre concussion.

[drjim]

One thought I had on Morneau not really related to this conversation - we spend a decent amount of time on this board either directly or indirectly talking about what caused the collapse of the past three years.

 

There are many factors but I would argue that Morneau's concussion was the biggest of them all. To have an MVP caliber player cut down in his prime and never recover was too much to overcome.

 

Thome had a heroic stretch in 2010 to briefly cover the loss but the franchise never recovered. The subsequent blunders have magnified this reality.

[Monkeypaws]

The wrist and neck issues were not last year, they were 2011.

 

He had surgery on the neck in June 2011:

 

Twins' Justin Morneau to have neck surgery - USATODAY.com

 

He had surgery on the wrist in September 2011:

 

Justin Morneau undergoes minor wrist surgery - Minnesota Twins news | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

 

Health has not been the issue in 2012 or 2013. This is just who he is post concussion, it is time to accept reality.

I think it is your heart and not your head telling you otherwise, but hey if that is your opinion, not much I can say to change it.

 

That said, what if you are wrong?

What if we sign him to a 3 year deal and end up stuck with a below average or average 33, 34 and 35 year old first baseman for the next 3 years, who cannot be traded? How does that help us get better?

 

Sorry my mistake.

 

Oh, I could certainly be wrong. However, maybe you could be wrong and watch Morneau join Hunter, Ortiz, Cuddyer, and others in the All-Star game at Target Field next season.

 

I can certainly see where the glass half-empty crowd is coming from here.

 

However, I'm sick of seeing the Twins let team leaders go before their time. Whether your crystal ball is better than mine is debatable, but the rationale for Target Field was to let the Twins be able to keep their core players. So far, they haven't, and frankly is has come back to bite them in the butt.

[Mr. Brooks]

Sorry my mistake.

Oh, I could certainly be wrong. However, maybe you could be wrong and watch Morneau join Hunter, Ortiz, Cuddyer, and others in the All-Star game at Target Field next season.

 

I can certainly see where the glass half-empty crowd is coming from here.

 

However, I'm sick of seeing the Twins let team leaders go before their time. Whether your crystal ball is better than mine is debatable, but the rationale for Target Field was to let the Twins be able to keep their core players. So far, they haven't, and frankly is has come back to bite them in the butt.

 

I'm not attempting to use a crystal ball.

I'm looking at his last 3 seasons objectively. You are the one trying to project something other than what is there.

 

If you are really that worried that he'll suddenly become an all star next year, then sign him to a 1 year deal. I don't see what tying yourself to him for 3 years accomplishes.

[Rick Blaine]

"Prince is also 3 years younger." Chronologically maybe--- Prince's weight makes him older than his years.

[Alex]

But wouldn't you agree that 1B is one a field position in baseball with above average longevity?

 

Because anyone can play it. Players with better bats who can no longer play other positions because they aren't athletic enough stay anywhere but 1B.

[Alex]

 

However, I'm sick of seeing the Twins let team leaders go before their time. Whether your crystal ball is better than mine is debatable, but the rationale for Target Field was to let the Twins be able to keep their core players. So far, they haven't, and frankly is has come back to bite them in the butt.

 

I think "core" refers to players coming out of team control and entering FA. A player like Santana, who was lost to them because they couldn't afford him, and in the nearer future, players like Arcia, Sano, Meyer and Buxton.

 

It did not, and should not imply they are going to overpay players who are past their prime.

 

No offense, but I'd argue the "glass half-empty" crowd in this case are the ones saying the cupboard is empty or that better players couldn't be found in FA. They're arguing it's doom and gloom if we don't sign him.

[Trevor0333]

The only way it makes sense is on a incentive laden deal while moving both Doumit & Willingham in the offseason.

[Guest USAFChief]

Prediction: There won't be many posters who will want to be reminded of "Parmelee and Colabello can replace Morneau" a year from now.

[Tcrose3636]

A 2-3 year $7m per year is a drop in the bucket considering they will still be around $65/$70m? We are not talking about paying him $12, $15, $20 like Fielder. All of the free agent 1B in 2014 are over thiry and have question marks too. So, FA is a crap shoot. Why not take that chance with someone that hits .270 with 20 hrs and wants to play here....especially when there are no good in house options at 1B other than Mauer?

 

And I would take Cuddyer back too. Letting him go seemed to work out much better for him than the Twins.

[Tcrose3636]

Prediction: There won't be many posters who will want to be reminded of "Parmelee and Colabello can replace Morneau" a year from now.

 

I will make this +1

[Mr. Brooks]

A 2-3 year $7m per year is a drop in the bucket considering they will still be around $65/$70m? We are not talking about paying him $12, $15, $20 like Fielder. All of the free agent 1B in 2014 are over thiry and have question marks too. So, FA is a crap shoot. Why not take that chance with someone that hits .270 with 20 hrs and wants to play here....especially when there are no good in house options at 1B other than Mauer?

 

I don't care about the money. I don't want them to commit to a league average 1B'man who could decline even further for 3 years. If they insist on bringing him back, I'd rather do it for 1 yr/$14 million instead of 3 yrs/$20 million. Money is not an issue right now. This team needs to get BETTER, not stay the same. All giving Morneau a 3 year contract does is guarantee that you won't get better at that position for at least 4 years. Upgrading that position would no longer even be an option, because Gardy is not going to bench Justin Morneau.

Explain to me what the plan is if you sign him for 3 years and he finishes next year with an OPS of .670?

You can't trade him, they aren't going to cut a guy with 2 years remaining, Gardy isn't going to bench him no matter how bad he plays. So explain to me what the plan is if that happens?

You can get the equivalent of Justin Morneau somewhere else without having to commit yourself to 3 years.

[drjim]

Prediction: There won't be many posters who will want to be reminded of "Parmelee and Colabello can replace Morneau" a year from now.

 

I agree. I do wonder if the latest concussion will expedite the movement of Mauer to 1B.

[raindog]

Prediction: There won't be many posters who will want to be reminded of "Parmelee and Colabello can replace Morneau" a year from now.

I predict you will be proven wrong. If one of them doesn't step up and take the job, a platoon of those two would absolutely be better. It might be a moot point, because I won't be surprised if the Twins do resign Morneau.

[Mr. Brooks]

I predict you will be proven wrong. If one of them doesn't step up and take the job, a platoon of those two would absolutely be better. It might be a moot point, because I won't be surprised if the Twins do resign Morneau.

 

I'm not convinced it would. The plan should be to upgrade the position, not hope a couple of AAAA players find magic beans.

I'd still rather give them a shot over bringing Morneau back, because at least there is a chance that one of them figures something out, but its a long shot.

[nicksaviking]

I don't care about the money. I don't want them to commit to a league average 1B'man who could decline even further for 3 years. If they insist on bringing him back, I'd rather do it for 1 yr/$14 million instead of 3 yrs/$20 million. Money is not an issue right now. This team needs to get BETTER, not stay the same. All giving Morneau a 3 year contract does is guarantee that you won't get better at that position for at least 4 years. Upgrading that position would no longer even be an option, because Gardy is not going to bench Justin Morneau.

Explain to me what the plan is if you sign him for 3 years and he finishes next year with an OPS of .670?

You can't trade him, they aren't going to cut a guy with 2 years remaining, Gardy isn't going to bench him no matter how bad he plays. So explain to me what the plan is if that happens?

You can get the equivalent of Justin Morneau somewhere else without having to commit yourself to 3 years.

 

Where? I don't think you can. I'd like Miguel Gonzalez and I'd take him and let Morneau walk in a heartbeat, but is that really realistic? It would be about triple the largest free agent contract Terry Ryan has ever handed out.

 

You keep alternating between saying league average and replacement level though those are different things. This year Morneau has been about a league average 1B, his 1.0 WAR is not great but it's 18th overall for a 1B, he is 19th in OPS. Thus far in the 2nd half of the season those ranks are 14th and 12th. With no one in the system who looks to have the ability to rank in the 10-20 range for a 1B I'm not sure what you are hoping for.

 

You mentioned moving Sano to 1B, but reports are not that his glove is playable at 3B but that it is becoming a positive asset. Even if he struggled, there is no way he would be moved from 3B without at least giving it a chance for a full season.

[Mr. Brooks]

Where? I don't think you can. I'd like Miguel Gonzalez and I'd take him and let Morneau walk in a heartbeat, but is that really realistic? It would be about triple the largest free agent contract Terry Ryan has ever handed out.

 

You keep alternating between saying league average and replacement level though those are different things. This year Morneau has been about a league average 1B, his 1.0 WAR is not great but it's 18th overall for a 1B, he is 19th in OPS. Thus far in the 2nd half of the season those ranks are 14th and 12th. With no one in the system who looks to have the ability to rank in the 10-20 range for a 1B I'm not sure what you are hoping for.

 

You mentioned moving Sano to 1B, but reports are not that his glove is playable at 3B but that it is becoming a positive asset. Even if he struggled, there is no way he would be moved from 3B without at least giving it a chance for a full season.

 

That is why I don't want Morneau on a 3 year deal. If Sano is a disaster at 3B and has to be moved to 1B, you are now stuck with Morneau for 2 more years, and can ONLY play him at DH, where we have plenty of options.

 

Reports were that Plouffe and Dozier's gloves were playable at SS. Reports don't always turn out to be true.

 

 

A 1 WAR is practically replacement level. We're splitting hairs at that point, especially on a team for which 1 win means absolutely nothing.