Aww, Morneau. Can we keep him?

[Shane Wahl]

Parmelee and Colabello have not gotten adequate chances to just take over for Justin, and a platoon of those two might be quite useful. Defensively, there is going to be a drop off, but it isn't clear to me that such a platoon won't do better than a .752 OPS in 500+ plate appearances next year.

 

But if the Twins do want him next year, for whatever reason, than they clearly should just eat the salary and trade him for somebody now. The Yankees, and by WC extension, the Orioles are interested. Not to mention the Pirates. I don't know how the Twins, who threw money at Blackburn and Correia for absolutely no reason, won't just pay the $3 million owed to Morneau to get some kind of return. The verdict on the future of Twins pitching is still very much out, so they should be doing something. They already robbed a team of quality for the worst hitter in baseball.

[Mike Sixel]

Morneau has a negative .1 WAR score for fielding this year....a .7 WAR for the year so far. He's replacement level......

 

In 2012...he had a negative 6.7 defense, and a .3 WAR overall....replacement level.

 

so, for all we think he's this great defender, UZR does not agree.....

 

If he wasn't on the team, would you sign him? I doubt it.

[Alex]

This comparison' date=' while helpful, does not factor in Morneau's above average glove, and Willingham's below average defense. I have mentioned on other Morneau posts that he is on the top of the list among American League first basemen in most defensive categories, according to Baseball America, including Total Zone Runs and Range Factor (see below).

 

The Twins can sign Morneau--money is not the issue.

 

The Twins should sign Morneau--he's the best option at first in the organization--by far--on the field, and at the plate.

 

And, the Twins need to preserve a face to this organization. Our Canadian goalie turned first base stopper, married to a Minnesotan, is all that fans have left post-Hunter, post-Cuddyer, post-Kubel... Signing a free agent doesn't accomplish this, not even a Willingham.

[/quote']

 

Morneau is ranked 13th in the MLB in UZR at first base, and 7th in the AL via Fangraphs this year. His defense is no longer a reason to keep him and it certainly doesn't make up for his hitting. Baseball reference has him at -.1 dWar.

 

Money isn't an issue, but that doesn't mean we should spend it unwisely.

 

"Faces" for the organization emerge over time, and usually come while the team is winning. You see Perkins doing that now. And, I'd argue his face hasn't really helped the Twins over the last couple of years. Also, there's a guy named Mauer you're forgetting. That is, if you place value on that kind of thing.

 

Arguing that in-house options are worse is fairly unfair, in my opinion, when, as many have mentioned, none have gotten the chance to really prove themselves. Parmelee has the most PAs, but if you've made your decision on him based 600 non-consecutive PAs, you should have long ago decided Morneau probably doesn't have it anymore either as he has a much larger sample size.

 

The bottom line is that people are hanging on to a figment of Morneau that no longer exists. He's one of the worst 1B in the league by any measure and his defense, while solid, is no longer a "plus."

 

I've said this many times:he's one of my favorites, but the fact is that he needs the Twins more than they need him.

[Monkeypaws]

You can spout all the advanced metrics you want, but I'm sure the rest of the Twins infielders are grateful to have Morneau scooping their throws out of the dirt 2-3 times a game.

[Mike Sixel]

You can spout all the advanced metrics you want, but I'm sure the rest of the Twins infielders are grateful to have Morneau scooping their throws out of the dirt 2-3 times a game.

 

Plays that no other 1B can make? The people that do UZR and dWAR watch EVERY SINGLE play, and assess players against each other. But I dont' want to get into this in every thread......some people trust their eyes and refuse to take into account other things, and some people take into account other things. We aren't going to change that here.....

 

some of us are merely pointing out that two of the sites that publish defensive stats don't think he's better than other 1B....

[drjim]

This Mauer concussion thing makes me think the Twins need to work him at 1B more and less behind the plate. That means not much room for another left-handed hitting first baseman.

 

This is the likely scenario. Twins are probably more likely to sign a corner of now.

[S.]

Dont get me wrong, I like Morneau a lot, but signing him to another deal right now would be dumb as hell. As was already pointed out, half of our current team is made up of players who have no business playing anywhere besides DH or 1B, Mauer should start seeing a lot more time at 1B, there is a certain Cuban who we could sign to play 1B, we have young, cheap guys we could plug in at first who could be just as replacement level, etc, etc, etc.

 

I understand that there is a lot of nostalgia and love for Morneau, but he is not the player he used to be. Not even remotely close. He's mashing right now, so I don't see ANY benefit of not shipping him off somewhere while we can, for the best deal we can get, and actually start moving forward with our rebuild.

[stringer bell]

Alternatives to Morneau include Colabello, Parmelee and Mauer. I happen to believe that if Mauer played catcher less, he would hit more. While Mauer is still a fine catcher, his hitting is vital to this team going forward and I suspect he would be as good a defender as Morneau relatively soon. I think that Parmelee still has a chance to be a big league regular and that Colabello has shown just enough as a Twin to get a longer look. I'm ready for the Twins and Morneau to part ways and wish Justin well.

[Alex]

You can spout all the advanced metrics you want, but I'm sure the rest of the Twins infielders are grateful to have Morneau scooping their throws out of the dirt 2-3 times a game.

 

Please feel free to share whatever evidence you have. I don't watch every 1B in the league play as I don't have the time, so I rely on people who are paid to analyze it and put it into a measurable form.

 

EDIT: I'll also point out that the post I was responding to used ZR (and the last time he ranked highly was 2010). Morneau still looks very good in RF, but the problem there is that the Twins strike out fewer batters than anyone else in the league. This means he's getting more chances which is what range factor measures -- it doesn't actually measure range.

[TheDean]

I see the possibility of re-signing Morneau as a safe investment in the next couple of years at 1B/DH. While he may currently be at the bottom of the league in batting for a 1B, he, Willingham, Dozier, and Arcia represent our >.700 OPS not named Mauer.

 

However, looking at AL 1B batting, he doesn't compare that poorly. If he continues to improve after that brutal midseason stretch, he could conceivably move from his current spot in OPS (11th among 15 qualified AL players who play most games at 1B). That list of 1B includes a number of poor fielders who lose stock by comparison - not to mention a lot of large contracts. Overall, if he would sign for a modest amount, it's not crazy to think that he could be a middle-of-the-pack 1B (offense & defense) for the Twins at a team-friendly rate. He would be playing on a team where middle-of-the-pack production at 1B puts you at second place to Mauer.

 

Don't get me wrong, Parm definitely has youth on his side, and probably still has time to prove himself. It's just difficult for me to stomach watching the Twins next year if he continues his trend of sub .680 OPS as the full-time 1B.

 

stringerbell brings up a good point.

The alternative to Morneau or Parm/Colabello at 1B that I like the most is having Mauer play 2/3 of his time at 1B. Mauer's current production compares favorably among the best AL first basemen. He would rank third in both slugging and OPS (behind Davis and Encarnacion) and rank first in both BA and OBP. Considering that he gets beat up behind the plate on a daily basis, I think the comparison should stand out as a testament to his value. Also consider that he has very little protection in the lineup compared to a lot of those 1Bs.

[S.]

Also, not to be too rude, but some of these arguments definitely seem to be people thinking with their hearts and not their heads. I don't know how anyone can sit there with a straight face and say that signing Morneau to a multi year deal is a good idea for the Twins or that we need him because otherwise we won't have a "good" DH in the upcoming years. You're fooling yourselves and all that a multi year deal would accomplish is continuing our trend of stagnation.

 

Sure, if Morneau wants to sign a 1 yr/$4M deal, then you go ahead and do it, but I really dont see that happening. And even if we think that is a remote possibility, it still seems like bad business in my book to not trade him now and guarantee we get something back instead of letting him walk. Once you start talking multiple years and $5-8M per, it's just ridiculous.

[Mike Sixel]

Or sign a Cuban that has a great bat.....and keep Mauer at C and DH/1B....

[S.]

Or sign a Cuban that has a great bat.....and keep Mauer at C and DH/1B....

http://img.pandawhale.com/55872-How-I-feel-when-my-GF-asks-if-NZwx.gif

[Major League Ready]

Or sign a Cuban that has a great bat.....and keep Mauer at C and DH/1B....

 

We can only hope. They are going to spend some money in free agency this year. This seems like a pretty good option.

[Alex]

 

Don't get me wrong, Parm definitely has youth on his side, and probably still has time to prove himself. It's just difficult for me to stomach watching the Twins next year if he continues his trend of sub .680 OPS as the full-time 1B.

 

 

The problem is signing Morneau doesn't give him or Colabello the chance (someone else used an excellent descriptor: stagnation). The OF will hopefully be more crowded next season with Arcia out there permanently, hopefully.

 

The more I think about it another issue with re-signing Morneau at any price means he becomes the defacto starter. He'll be a year older and likely producing less and no ones going to sit him if he does in favor of a younger player because of his pedigree here. Another team could probably take that risk and then benching him if he's not performing, but that's a big part of the problem with signing him for "intangible" reasons.

 

Heck I wasn't big on re-signing him in the first place, but I'm getting to the point where I think it's almost crazy.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Morneau currently has the second highest BA on our team.

He has the fifth highest OBP.

He has the third highest SLG%.

That combo gives him the third highest OPS on our team.

 

Unless Parmelee and Colabello are going to get much, much better we are better off with Morneau.

 

Want to sign a really good 1B? Great!

 

Failing that, Morneau is still one of our better hitters.

[S.]

I think that speaks a lot more for the low quality of the rest of our team at the plate than the high quality of Morneau. Not like it's terribly impressive to have the third highest OPS on a team full of Florimons, Thomas's, Herrmanns, various first year rookies, aging mediocrity like Doumit, etc.

[S.]

I should specify, I'm not trying to be a negative Nancy just for the sake of it, but look at some of our recent lineups and tell me that more than half of these guys would be more than perennial backup guys/bench players/AAA fodder on any team not named the Astros.

 

Minnesota Twins 2013 Starting Lineup - ESPN

 

B. Dozier, 2B

C. Herrmann, RF

J. Willingham, DH

J. Morneau, 1B

R. Doumit, C

W. Ramirez, LF

T. Plouffe, 3B

C. Thomas, CF

P. Florimon, SS

 

 

B. Dozier, 2B

J. Mauer, C

J. Morneau, 1B

J. Willingham, LF

R. Doumit, DH

T. Plouffe, 3B

W. Ramirez, RF

C. Thomas, CF

D. Bernier, SS

[Jdosen]

Morneau currently has the second highest BA on our team.

He has the fifth highest OBP.

He has the third highest SLG%.

That combo gives him the third highest OPS on our team.

 

Unless Parmelee and Colabello are going to get much, much better we are better off with Morneau.

 

Want to sign a really good 1B? Great!

 

Failing that, Morneau is still one of our better hitters.

Those rankings are all true, but our team just isn't very good right now! I sure would hope a former MVP, even with his diminished skillset, could out-OPS the likes of RYan Doumit, Aaron Hicks, and Pedro Florimon among others.

[Tcrose3636]

I think that speaks a lot more for the low quality of the rest of our team at the plate than the high quality of Morneau. Not like it's terribly impressive to have the third highest OPS on a team full of Florimons, Thomas's, Herrmanns, various first year rookies, aging mediocrity like Doumit, etc.

 

But that also says what people want to replace him are not that good either, and the free agents (less the Cuban) aren't too good either...not to mention whether or not they would sign here to play for a team that loses +85 games. I guess Morneau would be the stop gap until you have a better team with the younger guys coming up to make FA want to come here again.

[stringer bell]

The problem is signing Morneau doesn't give him or Colabello the chance (someone else used an excellent descriptor: stagnation). The OF will hopefully be more crowded next season with Arcia out there permanently, hopefully.

 

The more I think about it another issue with re-signing Morneau at any price means he becomes the defacto starter. He'll be a year older and likely producing less and no ones going to sit him if he does in favor of a younger player because of his pedigree here. Another team could probably take that risk and then benching him if he's not performing, but that's a big part of the problem with signing him for "intangible" reasons.

 

Heck I wasn't big on re-signing him in the first place, but I'm getting to the point where I think it's almost crazy.

You pretty much say what I've been trying to say for weeks. Retaining Morneau locks him in as a starter and in the middle of the order and shortly after the season starts he can't be traded without his consent.

 

My favorite player on the Twins was Michael Cuddyer. I hated to see him go, but it was best for both the Twins (although they could have used his bat this year) and the player. This is a similar situation, I think.

[StormJH1]

To the extent we care about 1B defense, I watch the Twins pretty regularly and I still think of Morneau as an above-average 1B defender. I hear people like Bonnes casually refer to his declining defense, but there are guys around the league that can barely move that play 1st base (or they are former catchers or OF'ers that are just there to get a bat in the lineup). Morneau's range may be down, but I consider him "elite" at grabbing bad throws. MN fans are also spoiled because they've had over a decade of Dougie M. and Morneau playing there, and both were very good.

 

But I agree that you let him go, unless he explores the market and is willing to come back for 1 or 2 years, and probably then for less than $5 million per. There are plenty of rostered players that can play 1B or learn it, or you could sign a cheap RH vet. People say "we have the money", but a 3-year deal spends money for this offseason, plus the 2014 and 2015 offseasons. The only meaningful FA spending that will impact our on-field success is a multi-year deal for some decent upside SP who is under 30. Obviously, we won't get the elite guys, but we just have too big of a hole to dig out of it by trading for AA prospects here and there.

[S.]

But that also says what people want to replace him are not that good either, and the free agents (less the Cuban) aren't too good either...not to mention whether or not they would sign here to play for a team that loses +85 games. I guess Morneau would be the stop gap until you have a better team with the younger guys coming up to make FA want to come here again.

If we're gonna lose 85+ games with overpriced, aging stop-gaps, why wouldn't we just lose 85 games with our cheap, equally replacement level players, give some of our younger guys an opportunity to show us what they have, or spend that same money on players who actually have upside? You can't just pray that all of our younger guys simultaneously start playing well (if most of them ever do at all) and miraculously we'll be able to go out the next offseason and fill in every single other hole. Building takes time. (Re)Signing aging, declining stopgaps is not a solution here. If all you need is a body to fill in a spot for a year, you don't go out and sign them to a multi year deal, for a good chunk of change, where they're pretty much going to be guaranteed playtime based on their previous success and salary, regardless of the fact that they're no longer the same player.

[Tcrose3636]

Well, I guess because the money is there to spend and they won't carry the money forward to next year and the year after that. I would take the shell of a former MVP at $7per year for 2 or 3 years that can hit .270 with 20hr vs a guy making less money hitting .220 with 10hr as a stop gap until you can find a better replacement, and looking at the in house options and free agent market this year...I do not see a better option. I just don't get being a fan of the team, wanting to watch a cheaper stop gap for 2 or 3 years so the Twins sit on more cash that they won't spend on a decent free agent.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I think that speaks a lot more for the low quality of the rest of our team at the plate than the high quality of Morneau. Not like it's terribly impressive to have the third highest OPS on a team full of Florimons, Thomas's, Herrmanns, various first year rookies, aging mediocrity like Doumit, etc.

 

This is true. No argument from me. That's why I stated:

Want to sign a really good 1B? Great!

Failing that, however, we have issues at 1B.

That is true whether we sign Morneau or not.

[S.]

It all goes back to my statement about stagnation. I think these last 3 years have proved beyond a doubt that just doing the same old thing and hoping for drastically different results doesn't work. We have an unbelievable amount of payroll flexibility and we're only going to have more the next few years. Now is the time to start making some moves, making some changes, taking some risks. If they don't work out, at least we can say we tried and not that we just kept trotting out Doumit, Morneau and Willingham and hoping that the next year is the year they turn into Miguel Cabrera. I want the twins to spend money as much as anyone, but committing that sort of money to Morneau is accomplishing nothing but taking away at bats from guys like Arcia, Sano, Plouffe, Parms, etc. Mauer is going to be spending more time at first, because we need to keep his bat in the lineup as much as possible, which means Morneau gets pushed to the DH more, which means less at bats for guys with a future on the team or potential upside.

 

edit: in response to Tcrose3636

 

double edit: To clarify, I'm not saying dont sign a 1B solely because Mauer is gonna bump them to DH, but if we're gonna sign a stop gap guy for 1B, make it someone who Gardy isnt going to feel inclined to keep in the lineup every day due to namesake and salary. Or sign a guy who is good and has upside where mauer pushing him to DH and taking away at bats from said guys is much different than a stopgap taking away at bats from said guys.

 

triple edit: I should probably stop getting into these discussions while I'm working. I feel like each additional post I make gets less and less comprehensive. Hopefully someone is able to follow my semi-coherent train of thought.

[Mike Sixel]

Don't forget 10 and 5.....if they sign him, it will be virtually impossible to trade him.

[LaBombo]

Unless Parmelee and Colabello are going to get much, much better we are better off with Morneau.

That's not going to happen while they're sitting on the bench watching Morneau for two more years.

 

Even if it's just a one in ten chance that somebody can approach something like major league average, it would be nice to see the Twins give that a chance.

 

Morneau is one of my favorite players, but he either needs to go to a team that will platoon him, or hang it up.

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, I guess because the money is there to spend and they won't carry the money forward to next year and the year after that. I would take the shell of a former MVP at $7per year for 2 or 3 years that can hit .270 with 20hr vs a guy making less money hitting .220 with 10hr as a stop gap until you can find a better replacement, and looking at the in house options and free agent market this year...I do not see a better option. I just don't get being a fan of the team, wanting to watch a cheaper stop gap for 2 or 3 years so the Twins sit on more cash that they won't spend on a decent free agent.

 

And what happens if Morneau declines even more in year 1 or 2 of that 3 year contract? Suddenly instead of a league average 1B, you are stuck with a well below average 1B who has too much fan sentiment to bench, and can't be traded.

At least with the young guys who will give you similar production, you control them year to year, and are not tied to them.

[Shane Wahl]

Again, the major hurdle to a trade is the fact that the Twins, foolishly, are not going to eat the contract.