Aww, Morneau. Can we keep him?

[Monkeypaws]

I thought he would play better after the trade stuff kind of cooled down, but he really looks close enough to the Justin we know and love, I'd be happy to get him signed to a reasonable extension. There is something to be said for keeping core vets. I would feel better about a return to relevancy with his bat and glove over there as opposed to more ????

[Mr. Brooks]

The Twins better not make the mistake of getting fooled by a tiny sample size, but knowing their history, I wouldn't be shocked if they did.

[Beemo]

I don't think a reasonable extension is actually possible right now. They have to let him become a free agent to pay him significantly less than he's getting now.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Trade him and then resign him this offseason? I'd be game for that, especially if they trade Doumit.

[Monkeypaws]

Well yeah, that is what I am talking about I guess Beemo.

 

mr. Brooks, I think his concussion years are the smaller sample size than the rest of his career. He isn't that old to be considered over the hill.

 

i am also a big fan of his glove at first.

[Jdosen]

Well yeah, that is what I am talking about I guess Beemo.

 

mr. Brooks, I think his concussion years are the smaller sample size than the rest of his career. He isn't that old to be considered over the hill.

 

i am also a big fan of his glove at first.

As much as I love Justin and have enjoyed his time here, I think you're grasping at straws when you say you think the concussion years are the small sample size and not indicative of what kind of player he is. The fact of it is, he is a below-average hitting (for his position) first baseman who really isn't all that young anymore.

 

Unless you consider these past two years concussion years--years in which he has been considerably healthy, here is a rather large sample size saying he isn't your father's Justin Morneau.

2012 .267/.333/.440, 108 wRC+, 0.3 fWAR

2013 .267/.321/.431, 106 wRC+, 0.7 fWAR

[Rosterman]

Can Morneau expect a 2-year $15 million contract with an option for a third year?

 

Would he get an $8-9 million one year contract with someone?

 

Should the Twins do 3 years guaranteed for, say,#20-22 million.....would people be happy with that?

 

I know everyone would like to get him for $5 mill a year for 2 years with an option for a third, but doubt that will happen.

 

He'll command at least $6-7 and get 2 years with a third year option from someone.

 

The bigger point is THE TWINS CAN AFFORD TO KEEP HIM FOR 2-3 YEARS, they have no one to take over 1st next season, and will need a DH in 2015-16 and have to pay what to find a comparable one. Plus, good public relations.

[jorgenswest]

It would be foolish to commit anything more than one year. Even then he will have 10/5 rights and be even more difficult to trade.

[Highabove]

It will be very important to have a Mentor for these young players.

You can put Sano at the top of the list. You can't put a number to it, but this is something that is very much needed.

[CGNikolic]

Let him test the market and if he wants anything over 7-8 million a year.. Let him walk. He's no longer an above average player and for the Twins to just keep him around after a year in which he only has had two decent months (good June and August, sandwiched around a horrible July) for sentimental reasons or him being a known commodity.. Would be ridiculous. He'll be 33 next year and has not been a good player, let alone great, since 2010 when he was 29.

[beckmt]

May need to resign he as Twins have few options in the next 2 years. Parmelle looks like a AAAA player. See if the price is decent, maybe he will give a hometown discount.

[iastfan112]

Aging, can't hit lefties 1B with 2 straight years of ~.750 OPS, I'll pass. It's 3 years in, if he's not back to were he was before injury I doubt he'll ever be. Let Parmelee have his shot, maybe he turns out to be ~.700 hitter that he's been in the majors thus far but thats not far off from what Morneau has been producing. Not to mention he's cheaper and still has upside. If Morneau were to come back I'd want it to be 5 million or less per year and only as part of a platoon.

[Major League Ready]

They have plenty of payroll room to make a move for Morales or Abreu.

[drjim]

It will be very important to have a Mentor for these young players.

You can put Sano at the top of the list. You can't put a number to it, but this is something that is very much needed.

 

This is overstated. Twins just need to surround the young guys with better players.

[Gernzy]

May need to resign he as Twins have few options in the next 2 years. Parmelle looks like a AAAA player. See if the price is decent, maybe he will give a hometown discount.

 

This. If we lose Morneau, we have no one else who can play 1B. Parmelee has not shown enough to be a full time 1B.

[Mike Sixel]

how about signing someone that might be good? There is a Cuban or two just sitting out there, waiting for permission to sign. How about taking a chance on someone from outside the org. He's one of my favorite Twins of all time, but Morneau is not a good player anymore. I'd rather they take a chance on someone.....

 

How about this:

Sign Ellsbury, put Willingham at DH, put random player in RF (they have options), put a medium/low FA in LF, and put Arcia at 1B. In a year, put Buxton in CF, and move Ellsbury to LF. Problems solved.....with 100x better players.

[Mike Sixel]

This. If we lose Morneau, we have no one else who can play 1B. Parmelee has not shown enough to be a full time 1B.

 

Morneau can't play 1B, that's the point. He's just not that good anymore.

[Alex]

This. If we lose Morneau, we have no one else who can play 1B. Parmelee has not shown enough to be a full time 1B.

 

No one else? As G+G pointed out in their podcast, fill in first baseman are available on the FA market and a Parmelee/Collobello platoon would be fine for next season to fill in and give them a chance to get some at bats.

[Blackjack]

Let him walk unless he gives a serious hometown discount, something in the range of 2 years at $4 million a year. Do you suppose he could feed his family on that? Remember, he's already banked $80 million, let him show that he truly wants to stay here.

 

Will his pride let him accept $4 million a year from the Twins if some other team offers him $7??? My guess is no.

 

What will other teams offer?? Thats the key.

[Mike Sixel]

Let him walk unless he gives a serious hometown discount, something in the range of 2 years at $4 million a year. Do you suppose he could feed his family on that? Remember, he's already banked $80 million, let him show that he truly wants to stay here.

 

Will his pride let him accept $4 million a year from the Twins if some other team offers him $7??? My guess is no.

 

What will other teams offer?? Thats the key.

 

why would anyone do that?

[Mr. Brooks]

why would anyone do that?

 

I know nobody would, but you could make the case for a stand up person doing "a solid" for the team that paid him $45 million over the last 3 years to be a leave average first baseman.

[Boom Boom]

This Mauer concussion thing makes me think the Twins need to work him at 1B more and less behind the plate. That means not much room for another left-handed hitting first baseman.

[Alex]

Here's an interesting comparison:

 

Morneau the last two seasons (age 31-32):

.267/.333/.440 19 HR (570 PA)

.267/.321/.431 15 HR (508 PA)

 

Josh Willingham - (age 31-32, prior to getting 3 years at $21M)

.268/.389/.459 16 HR (451 PA)

.246/.332/.477 29 HR (563 PA)

 

While these numbers don't look all that different, Willingham put up a better SLG both of those seasons (thanks to more HR power) and a significantly better OBP.

 

So, is it realistic (or wise) with any objective reasoning to bring Morneau back on a deal that is more than a couple of million a year at best?

 

Also, think about it from the angle of if Morneau weren't a Twin. Would we be happy seeing the signing of a .750ish OPS 1B on the FA market for a decent contract? Dare I say we'd treat it like a certain pitcher signing...Further, I'd argue that people would be rooting for more chances for CC and CP.

[Shane Wahl]

Yankees are back in, so hopefully a deal finally gets made.

[raindog]

Here's a list of players on the Twins that play awful defense and should be 1B/DH only:

 

Willingham, Arcia, Doumit, Parmalee, Colabello, Plouffe

 

Then you have Mauer who will probably play less at catcher as he gets older. The Twins do not need Morneau. He is not a good player anymore. It pains me to say that because I love the guy. But it's true.

[Tcrose3636]

Yes, resign him. What else are they going to spend $40m on? They have showed us in the past that they will sit on that money and not spend it before trying to sign an impact player and try signing scrap heaps in the offseason. I would rather them spend $7 per year on Morneau than 2 crap pitchers for $7, so 3 years for between $20 - $22 is a yes for me.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Part of me wonders if we could get Stolmy Pimentel from Pittsburg for Justin. He's an AAA pitcher who's young (23) and doing fairly well. He was an honorable mention on Sickel's prospect list last season and he's never made a top 100 list, so I don't think he's a top 100 guy at this point even with the lists being redone, but he looks like a guy who can be more than #4/5 guy. I saw him pitch a couple of weeks ago. Was throwing 95 deep into the game. That said, he's got some control issues that I think could use some work. In the game I saw, he hit two guys and walked two more. I'd be thrilled for that type of return. Thoughts?

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

Here's an interesting comparison:

 

Morneau the last two seasons (age 31-32):

.267/.333/.440 19 HR (570 PA)

.267/.321/.431 15 HR (508 PA)

 

Josh Willingham - (age 31-32, prior to getting 3 years at $21M)

.268/.389/.459 16 HR (451 PA)

.246/.332/.477 29 HR (563 PA)

 

While these numbers don't look all that different, Willingham put up a better SLG both of those seasons (thanks to more HR power) and a significantly better OBP.

 

 

This comparison, while helpful, does not factor in Morneau's above average glove, and Willingham's below average defense. I have mentioned on other Morneau posts that he is on the top of the list among American League first basemen in most defensive categories, according to Baseball America, including Total Zone Runs and Range Factor (see below).

 

The Twins can sign Morneau--money is not the issue.

 

The Twins should sign Morneau--he's the best option at first in the organization--by far--on the field, and at the plate.

 

And, the Twins need to preserve a face to this organization. Our Canadian goalie turned first base stopper, married to a Minnesotan, is all that fans have left post-Hunter, post-Cuddyer, post-Kubel... Signing a free agent doesn't accomplish this, not even a Willingham.

 

:Justin Morneau Statistics and History - Baseball-Reference.com

[TABLE=class: stats_table wide_table no_highlight]

[TD=align: center]

Putouts† 2013 AL 945 (2nd)

 

 

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]

 

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]Putouts as 1B 2013 AL 945 (2nd)

 

 

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]

 

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]

 

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]Double Plays Turned as 1B

2005 AL 123 (3rd)

2006 AL 113 (4th)

2007 AL 122 (2nd)

2008 AL 149 (1st)

2013 AL 112 (2nd)

Active 983 (10th)

Career 983 (83rd)

 

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]Total Zone Runs as 1B

2005 AL 10 (2nd)

2010 AL 12 (1st)

 

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]Range Factor/9Inn as 1b

2005 AL 9.89 (4th)

2012 AL 9.73 (4th)

2013 AL 9.77 (1st)

Active 9.41 (10th)

Career 9.41 (78th)

 

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]Range Factor/Game as 1B

2006 AL 9.20 (4th)

2012 AL 9.61 (1st)

2013 AL 9.73 (1st)

Active 9.15 (3rd)

 

[/TD]

[TD=align: center]Fielding % as 1B

2007 AL .996 (5th)

2008 AL .997 (2nd)

2009 AL .997 (2nd)

2013 AL .997 (2nd)

Active .996 (5th)

Career .996 (9th)

 

[/TD]

[/TABLE]

[Mike Sixel]

A super bad rebuilding team should not be signing bad 1B, they just shouldn't.

[Tcrose3636]

.270 with 20hr and + defense is not a bad 1B, when the in house options are worse.