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Article: What's the Plan: Alex Meyer

Nick Nelson

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orangevening Prep Ball

orangevening

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Spot on. Meyers is a tough case. I feel bad for the FO, no matter what they do with Myers it could be the right decision or the wrong one. Lets see how that shoulder does in off-season, if it does well and ST goes well starting in Rochester makes sense to me

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TheLeviathan All-Star

TheLeviathan

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I wouldn't have him any further away than AAA next year, especially if they don't improve their starting 5 this off season.

 

I can appreciate the sentiment here but quite frankly, the status of next year's rotation should have no bearing on Meyer. THe Twins will hopefully do what's best for him regardless.

 

To me, that shoulder eliminates any shot of seeing him before June next year and I would imagine more of a late July call-up.

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troyhobbs College Ball

troyhobbs

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I can appreciate the sentiment here but quite frankly, the status of next year's rotation should have no bearing on Meyer. THe Twins will hopefully do what's best for him regardless.

 

To me, that shoulder eliminates any shot of seeing him before June next year and I would imagine more of a late July call-up.

 

Obviously if his shoulder is an issue that changes things but if it's not and their pitching isn't vastly improved then he should have good enough stuff to crack the rotation at point next year.

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Seth Stohs GOAT

Seth Stohs

Owner
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I can appreciate the sentiment here but quite frankly, the status of next year's rotation should have no bearing on Meyer. THe Twins will hopefully do what's best for him regardless.

 

To me, that shoulder eliminates any shot of seeing him before June next year and I would imagine more of a late July call-up.

 

100% agree... no matter what the Twins rotation looks like, they need to do what's best for Meyer. I won't pretend to know what the answer to that is. But, he did get 3 innings in the GCL on Wednesday. Maybe by next Monday or Tuesday, he can go 4 innings, maybe 5 depending on pitches. Then, I'd send him back to New Britain, still on a pitch count. I think the Twins will send him to the AFL. I think they'll sign the waiver which means he'd go there with no restrictions other than common sense.

 

The key is his health. That's really all that matters. If he's healthy, I think he starts at Rochester and I think he could be up as early as June. That's pretty aggressive itself. There is no need to rush him. Age is not a factor. Shouldn't be, at least. If they deem he should spend a month in New Britain to start the season, there's really no negative in that at all. Let him dominate there for a month, then go to Rochester for a month or two.

 

I hate to sound like a broken record, but doing the right thing (health-wise and promotion-wise) is the most important thing for these high-level prospects, regardless of what is going on with the Twins or around them.

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TheLeviathan All-Star

TheLeviathan

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Obviously if his shoulder is an issue that changes things but if it's not and their pitching isn't vastly improved then he should have good enough stuff to crack the rotation at point next year.

 

At some point, maybe. I just don't like the implication that we're judging Meyer by our other starters. He's most likely going to be better than any of them talent-wise. But our only consideration should be his readiness.

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troyhobbs College Ball

troyhobbs

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Not really disagreeing just saying if he's healthy then he should be ready or close to it and if the Twins can win more games with him than without him that should matter at least a little bit...unless they're on a course for another 90 losses

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Mr. Brooks Cedar Rapids Kernels

Mr. Brooks

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So is Meyer going to be on an inning limit next season? He only threw 129 innings last season, and only 65 so far this season. What is that rule of thumb about increasing a pitcher's innings from one season to the next?

 

Its often a 60% increase.

So if he manages to throw 100 this year, you wouldn't want him throwing more than 160 next year.

Of course that is not a hard line, its a case by case basis. But, I think this is why he needs to go to the AFL. If he can get up to 130+ combined innings, then he should be fine to throw a full workload next year.

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drjim Cedar Rapids Kernels

drjim

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Its often a 60% increase.

So if he manages to throw 100 this year, you wouldn't want him throwing more than 160 next year.

Of course that is not a hard line, its a case by case basis. But, I think this is why he needs to go to the AFL. If he can get up to 130+ combined innings, then he should be fine to throw a full workload next year.

 

There is also the thought you don't "reset" innings but can increase upon the season total before the injury season.

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Cris E College Ball

Cris E

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I'd do AFL this year and then start at AA in 2014 and move him up as performance dictates. There really shouldn't be anyone standing between him and Target Field, so let his development be your guide. He needs his skills to ripen, but empty innings at any particular level for the sake of "paying dues" is dumb.

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Mr. Brooks Cedar Rapids Kernels

Mr. Brooks

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If he does goto the AFL, what is that considered a near equivalent to minors-wise? AA? AAA? AA+?

 

I'd say it's about the equivilant of AA, with it being a little easier than that for hitters, and a little tougher than that for pitchers (just due to the fact that some pitchers maybe tiring a bit by that time of the year, while some hitters are really getting into a "groove" by then.)

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Seth Stohs GOAT

Seth Stohs

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If he does goto the AFL, what is that considered a near equivalent to minors-wise? AA? AAA? AA+?

 

The rules of the league say that a team can send 6-7 players and just two of them can be from lower than AA, so the talents is at least the AA level, and some of the prospects are great.

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Thrylos St Paul Saints

Thrylos

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About Meyer's (and May's too) numbers this season:

 

- Meyer has a 2.82 FIP

- His (and May's and most of the NB Ps) BABIP is in the .3xxs because of the bad New Britain D (of the range part, and this is obvious to all of us who have watched them play)

- His xFIP is probably in the low 2s

 

This seems like a guy who if healthy can do better than most (if not all) the people in the Twins' rotation today. I hope he has a chance to fight for a spot in the rotation next ST.

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Mr. Brooks Cedar Rapids Kernels

Mr. Brooks

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About Meyer's (and May's too) numbers this season:

 

- Meyer has a 2.82 FIP

- His (and May's and most of the NB Ps) BABIP is in the .3xxs because of the bad New Britain D (of the range part, and this is obvious to all of us who have watched them play)

- His xFIP is probably in the low 2s

 

This seems like a guy who if healthy can do better than most (if not all) the people in the Twins' rotation today. I hope he has a chance to fight for a spot in the rotation next ST.

 

The Twins FO doesn't look at FIP and xFIP.

They don't even know what it is.

I'm not being a smart ass, Rob Antony literally thought it stood for "first strike in inning pitched".

 

Twins thrive without sabermetrics - SweetSpot Blog - ESPN

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Mr. Brooks Cedar Rapids Kernels

Mr. Brooks

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I understand FIP and xFIP, Antony is probably better off not understanding it. I suspect the Twins do understand the effect that defense and the lack of it can have on their pitchers.

 

I can't think of one good reason why an MLB assistant GM would be better off not understanding what something as simple as FIP is.

Like the article says, even if you choose not to use it, it is SHOCKING that he literally did not even know what it meant. It's like they live in a bubble.

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Oxtung First Round Pick

Oxtung

Verified Member
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In this thread about AFL predictions PseudoSABR listed the eligibility rules. One of them was:

 

To be eligible, players on Minor League disabled lists must be activated at least 45 days before the conclusion of their respective seasons.

 

If that is correct then Meyer would not be eligible for AFL.

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