2014 Rotation and You Ain't Gonna Like It......

[drjim]

The OP didn't say anything about Ryan not bothering to try to sign any free agent pitchers, he merely said there really isn't much out there, this whole thing is just an assessment of what we already have and what we could very likely end up with next year, how is that cynical?

 

Besides, when it comes to starting pitching what has Ryan done for any of us not to be cynical? If some want to deride the thread as being that, given the state of things, is it not a realistic viewpoint?

 

So is your thing to enter a thread and ask questions that have been discussed for over 40 posts?

 

I personally think the thread got derailed when the idea of it being cynical to expect no moves was expanded into everything else. But that's me.

[Brandon]

The Twins will sign someone or 2 to compete for the rotation this offseason plain and simple. will they sign a top tier player no. I think a good buy low player is Dan Haren. He has had 2 down years in a row and can throw innings and come cheaply. (not saying they will just that he would be the top of what they would target) Pelfry is a good candidate to return for 1 more season. And there are plenty of other options out there.

[twinsnorth49]

So is your thing to enter a thread and ask questions that have been discussed for over 40 posts?

 

I personally think the thread got derailed when the idea of it being cynical to expect no moves was expanded into everything else. But that's me.

 

Much like it's your "thing" to label other members cynical or negative if their viewpoint doesn't quite reflect your own?

 

Call it moral support, you keep misrepresenting the OP, nowhere did he say that he expects Ryan to make no moves, he merely states that there isn't much available in FA. You, quite predictably took that as a personal attack on Ryan and accused him of being cynical, it's false.

 

Why not just post what you think will happen and leave the labels and criticism out of it?

 

Oh and if someone entering a thread 40 posts in and repeating something that's been said before surprises you, welcome to Twins Daily.

[Linus]

Actually, my original post was not intended to be an indictment of Terry Ryan - I'm actually one of the folks that thinks he is a good GM. My main point was to draw attention to the fact that we have internal candidates that are not great but each provide a reason for the Twins to give them a chance next season, especially compared to the vast majority of the free agent pitchers out there who are older, will be much more expensive and are not likely to be much better than what several of the pitchers I listed will do in 2014. Some of our internal candidates will return to form or health and likely be better but it is certainly not a staff that is going to allow the Twins to contend. I don't believe we need to add more of the same as some are suggesting: we've got quantity already, we need quality, even if it is just one addition.

 

I think Ryan will take a run at a quality arm or two but the problem is that there are very few available and everyone will be after them. Its just not likely he is going to land Phil Hughes as much as I would like him to and it won't be his fault, per se. If you throw out the top half dozen starters, Pelfrey is as good as any that are left for Pete's sake - at least he is 30 and has the excuse of coming of TJ surgery. Free agency didn't help us last year and likely won't help much this year - that's one of the main points I am making. I don't blame Ryan for this as he correctly assessed last year's market for the most part and this year's is worse. It really just points out that you really can't build an entire rotation through free agency. So our rotation is what it is....and I knew you weren't going to like it......

[Mike Sixel]

Great post.....interesting that you say the FA class is worse, as a lot of people said it was better, and that's why Ryan waited (among other reasons). I tend to agree, they will have 7 or so MLB/AAAA arms in house, they have May and Meyer they need to get up here soon.....not to mention other names that they might think will take a leap. That leads me to believe they will not sign pitchers to long term deals that might block those players. That leads me to believe they won't sign a good FA, because good FAs get long term deals (like it or not, they do). That means, I think your list is reasonable, with maybe a guy like they signed this year thrown in.

 

That seems like a logical argument, conclusion, based on available information.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Okay, this thread is done and warnings/bans will be handed out if the personal attacks and/or asinine "cynical" argument continues.

 

Let it go and talk about baseball, people.

[Thegrin]

Would you DFA these pitchers and risk losing them for nothing in return ?

The current rotation

Correia - Yes (Please someone take his salary off the books)

Pelfrey - No (If he is willing to sign a reasonable contract)

Deduno - NO (He'd be snatched up immediately)

Gibson - NO (He's our future)

Albers - NO (This season won't cement his place in the rotation)

 

Sent back to AAA

Worley - NO (Has he recovered from his surgery?)

Diamond - NO (Can he be the 2012 Diamond again?)

Walters - Maybe (I'm not convinced he is a hopeless starter)

Hendriks - No (He's young and absolutely deserves a full shot)

Hernandez - No (He was semi-marginal when with the Twins)

 

Comeback player

Kyle Davies - Yes (Doing well in AA New Britain but I think he will sneak thru)

 

Current relievers - (All these should be given a chance during spring training)

Swarzak - No

Duensing - No

Pressly - No

 

Injured and rehabbing

DeVries - Yes ( I think he might sneak thru and we could sign him to a minor league contract)

Blackburn - Yes (although I would try and sign him to a minor league contract)

 

This is 16 pitchers we could have in spring training, trying to win one of 5 spots in the rotation or 2/3 spots in long relief. They have each done something to deserve a chance. Some are trying to gain ML status or, because of injuries, they are essentially new pitchers.

 

There is a high probability that, at the end of 2014, 3 or 4 of the above pitchers will finish the season as established starters. We will be able to expect each of the 3/4 pitchers from the 2014 rotation to have 50%+ quality starts in 2015. If they do that, the Twins will have a .500+ record in 2015. Also we should be able to add Meyer/May and a wildcard into the mix for 2015.

If Ryan brings in someone new in 2014, they better be good and give us 55%+ Quality Starts for 2014.

 

Think about it... Would you DFA these pitchers and risk losing them for nothing in return ?

[cmathewson]

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me to see Ryan punt on free agent pitching again this offseason. With Diamond and Worley in the minors and pitching much worse than they did in 2012 after minor surgery, I think there's a good chance both will rebound in 2014 and Ryan will count on one of Worley, Diamond, Hendriks to step into the #5 slot.

 

 

I would be surprised if he didn't go out and get at least one, if not two pitchers in the offseason--one if my FA, two if by acquisition(s). There are no front-line starters in the rotation for next year, unless you count Deduno, who is inconsistent, and probably a third starter on a good team. They have tons of money. They just need to spend it. And, unlike some posters here, I think they will. The FA market does not lack for quality arms.

[cmathewson]

Would you DFA these pitchers and risk losing them for nothing in return ?

The current rotation

Correia - Yes (Please someone take his salary off the books)

Pelfrey - No (If he is willing to sign a reasonable contract)

Deduno - NO (He'd be snatched up immediately)

Gibson - NO (He's our future)

Albers - NO (This season won't cement his place in the rotation)

 

Sent back to AAA

Worley - NO (Has he recovered from his surgery?)

Diamond - NO (Can he be the 2012 Diamond again?)

Walters - Maybe (I'm not convinced he is a hopeless starter)

Hendriks - No (He's young and absolutely deserves a full shot)

Hernandez - No (He was semi-marginal when with the Twins)

 

Comeback player

Kyle Davies - Yes (Doing well in AA New Britain but I think he will sneak thru)

 

Current relievers - (All these should be given a chance during spring training)

Swarzak - No

Duensing - No

Pressly - No

 

Injured and rehabbing

DeVries - Yes ( I think he might sneak thru and we could sign him to a minor league contract)

Blackburn - Yes (although I would try and sign him to a minor league contract)

 

This is 16 pitchers we could have in spring training, trying to win one of 5 spots in the rotation or 2/3 spots in long relief. They have each done something to deserve a chance. Some are trying to gain ML status or, because of injuries, they are essentially new pitchers.

 

There is a high probability that, at the end of 2014, 3 or 4 of the above pitchers will finish the season as established starters. We will be able to expect each of the 3/4 pitchers from the 2014 rotation to have 50%+ quality starts in 2015. If they do that, the Twins will have a .500+ record in 2015. Also we should be able to add Meyer/May and a wildcard into the mix for 2015.

If Ryan brings in someone new in 2014, they better be good and give us 55%+ Quality Starts for 2014.

 

Think about it... Would you DFA these pitchers and risk losing them for nothing in return ?

 

I would DFA Hendriks, Hernandez and Walters, especially if it meant signing Erving Santana and Matt Garza. :-)

[Craig Arko]

I'll buck the trend and say I'll be quite happy if Deduno, Gibson, and either Albers or Diamond are in the April rotation. Correia I'm about 50/50, and if either Worley or Hendriks steps up to seize a spot, good for them.

 

I'd love to see one good FA signed, and then pressure from Meyer and May to promote by mid-season. I call that progress.

[Siehbiscuit]

I think one thing that we as fans are forgetting about is Gardy's influence. What if he and Anderson are not here next year. Ryan has been drafting and trying to trade for more power arms. With Gardenhire and Anderson out of the picture how does the new manager and pitching coach's philosophy change.

[Steve Lein]

There isn't a current collection of pitchers in the majors or ready for the majors in the organization that would equal a ".500 pitching staff," not in reality or on paper.

 

No #1's, No #2's, Nobody who's reached their #3 potential; it's all back-end starters and AAAA/MLB swing men.

[snepp]

Oh and if someone entering a thread 40 posts in and repeating something that's been said before surprises you, welcome to Twins Daily.

 

Or more apt, welcome to the Internet, and forums in general.

 

 

It happens, and complaining about it serves no useful purpose while also being against forum guidelines.

[drjim]

Or more apt, welcome to the Internet, and forums in general.

 

 

It happens, and complaining about it serves no useful purpose while also being against forum guidelines.

 

I guess I hoped we would strive for better. How's that for being an optimist.

[Mr. Brooks]

My Prediction:

 

1. Josh Johnson/ Doc Halladay or/ Tim Lincecum 8-12 million a yr. for 3 years with an option........... In Lincecum's case may require 11-13 Mill in Halladay maybe only a 2 yr deal

2. Samuel Deduno

3. Colby Lewis (FA , 1 yr $4.5 Million with incentives that can earn him 5.5 Million)

4. Kyle Gibson

5. Kevin Correia

 

Bullpen:

Perkins, Fein, Burton, Theilbar, Pressley, Swarzak, Albers (can spot start)

 

Roenicke gets non-tendered and Duensing is traded with someone (likely Doumit) in a 2 for 1 off-season trade.

 

AND OTHER BIG MOVE:

 

Re-sign 1B Justin Morneau 3 years for $33.5 Million thru 2016

 

10.5 M , 11.0 M , 11.5 M ....with 250K incentive for leading twins in HR's, 500 K incentive for all-star game apperance, 750K incentive for AL MVP candidate, and $1.0 for AL MVP or World Series MVP.

 

 

ALL THIS CAN BE DONE with only a small increase in salary from $78 Million to 85 ish....

 

 

Pelfrey's, Duensing, Doumit's and some of Morneau's money ....is reason.

 

Then Hopefully Willingham has an amazing 1st half in 2014, so he can be dealt for a studly prospect or 2 at trade deadline to make room for Sano. (Plouffe shifting to outfield and Sano 3B)

 

Morneau wouldn't cost anywhere near that amount to sign.

He's a below average first baseman at this point.

He'll likely sign a 1 year contract for around $3 to $4 million, with a team option for a 2nd year.

[snepp]

I guess I hoped we would strive for better. How's that for being an optimist.

 

You're not the only one, if that ends up being a reasonable facsimile of our rotation heading into next season I may have to take a six hibernation.

 

Our pitching prospects can't get here soon enough.

 

 

Or were you not referring to next year's rotation?

[nicksaviking]

I think one thing that we as fans are forgetting about is Gardy's influence. What if he and Anderson are not here next year. Ryan has been drafting and trying to trade for more power arms. With Gardenhire and Anderson out of the picture how does the new manager and pitching coach's philosophy change.

 

Only one way to find out.

[Dave T]

The problem, as I see it and tried to lay out in the post, is an issue of quality. They've got enough quantity, and with few exceptions, that lengthy list of free agents doesn't really help us (especially if you want someone young enough to be around a while). It really boils down to living with what we have or making a major trade, involving some of our top prospects. I am reluctant to endorse that as we have finally gotten to the point where our farm system has some depth and could produce multiple quality players each year for the foreseeable future.

 

This is what I think will happen. Twins need a star pitcher.

[SpitefulRabbit617]

Mets decline Johan, Re-signs with twins as #5.

[ThePuck]

This is what I think will happen. Twins need a star pitcher.

 

Do you really envision Ryan trading some of our top prospects for an established top notch kind of pitcher? I can't see him doing that.

[TheLeviathan]

Do you really envision Ryan trading some of our top prospects for an established top notch kind of pitcher? I can't see him doing that.

 

Frankly, this is where I hope Ryan is smart enough not to. That's not the right move right now and I'm confident he knows that.

[Kwak]

Gardenhire has influence--to be sure--but he is a Ryan disciple. If he was replaced (*), you can darn well bet the next manager will be a Ryan disciple too. It sure looks to me that there will be a continuance of "value-pitchers" (maybe with one "name" on a short-term contract) and an abundance of relief pitchers, maybe even more than now! RP's are cheap wrt to SPs and also much easier to find affordable replacements. The Twins still stick rigidly to the 100-pitch count--even with veterans who aren't in the long-term plan--and I don't see that changing!

 

* Earlier in the year Ryan was on record supporting Gardenhire as manager and essentially excused him from responsibilty of losing because the roster was of inadequate talent. Thus, it seems 99+% likely that Gardenhire will be the Twins manager in 2014.

[ThePuck]

Frankly, this is where I hope Ryan is smart enough not to. That's not the right move right now and I'm confident he knows that.

 

My post wasn't really taking a stance of whether or not it would be a good idea to do that, I was just saying that I can't see him doing it. In all honesty, I think there's a better chance of me hitting the Powerball Jackpot lottery than THAT happening.

[jokin]

Mets decline Johan, Re-signs with twins as #5.

 

The applicants for the #5 starter role winds around the block......and......speaking of "block", that long line of applicants is currently being "blocked" by about seven #5s currently on the Twins SP depth chart.

[jokin]

My post wasn't really taking a stance of whether or not it would be a good idea to do that, I was just saying that I can't see him doing it. In all honesty, I think there's a better chance of me hitting the Powerball Jackpot lottery than THAT happening.

 

I would think that Ryan would try to do what he did last offseason and reach down for another high ceiling guy (although far less current tradeable options for that scenario to reach fruition- he'd have to throw in a legit prospect) and then hit the all-too-familiar bargain bin for a #5-#7 SP recycle option and one or two more injury reclamations. Re-signing Pelfrey follows past Ryan practices. Perhaps he throws in a variation gambit and signs a FA RP who would like to try converting to the rotation. Either way, it's going to be another long season.

[ThePuck]

I would think that Ryan would try to do what he did last offseason and reach down for another high ceiling guy (although far less current tradeable options for that scenario to reach fruition- he'd have to throw in a legit prospect) and then hit the all-too-familiar bargain bin for a #5-#7 SP recycle option and one or two more injury reclamations. Re-signing Pelfrey follows past Ryan practices. Perhaps he throws in a variation gambit and signs a FA RP who would like to try converting to the rotation. Either way, it's going to be another long season.

 

Who was the high-ceiling guy?

[nicksaviking]

Mets decline Johan, Re-signs with twins as #5.

 

Johan's probably a #1 on the Twins even if he has to pitch right handed.

[Mr. Brooks]

Who was the high-ceiling guy?

 

I would guess he is speaking of Alex Meyer.

[Mr. Brooks]

Johan Santana will not be pitching in 2014.

He had this same surgery, and last time it took him 18 months to recover.

Another 18 month recovery would put him out until October or November of 2014.

[ThePuck]

I would guess he is speaking of Alex Meyer.

 

Ah, I see, sorry...thought he was referring to the pitchers he got to help us this year.