2014 Rotation and You Ain't Gonna Like It......

[Linus]

As I was watching Andrew Albers work his second magic show, I started thinking about next year's starting rotation and all the different scenarios that could play out.

 

Here is one that I think is actually quite likely and almost certainly not going to be popular with the fan base or TD posters.

 

First off, assume that Deduno gets over his two game hiccup and finishes out the year with the acceptable performance he has shown most of the summer. Also assume that Albers, while coming directly and quickly back to earth, turns into fairly regular "quality start" guy (I know everyone hates that reference but its my post so go with it). If that happens, he is all but assured a spot in the roto as one of our favorite, yet short lived posters used to say.

 

Gibson is a given whether he deserves it or not, due to his highly valued prospect status. Corriea is under contract and likely can't be moved......

 

With almost nothing available in free agency (I like Hughes but if the Yanks want him, they have him; E. Santana strikes me as the classic big contract mistake waiting to happen...) that means the last spot in the rotation goes to Hendriks, Diamond, Worley, et al.

 

So there you have it:

1. Deduno

2. Albers

3. Gibson

4. Corriea

5. Flotsam from AAA

 

Makes you want to go right out and renew those season tickets......(I actually think it could be a .500 rotation if they catch a break or two). What do you think?

[ThePuck]

As I was watching Andrew Albers work his second magic show, I started thinking about next year's starting rotation and all the different scenarios that could play out.

 

Here is one that I think is actually quite likely and almost certainly not going to be popular with the fan base or TD posters.

 

First off, assume that Deduno gets over his two game hiccup and finishes out the year with the acceptable performance he has shown most of the summer. Also assume that Albers, while coming directly and quickly back to earth, turns into fairly regular "quality start" guy (I know everyone hates that reference but its my post so go with it). If that happens, he is all but assured a spot in the roto as one of our favorite, yet short lived posters used to say.

 

Gibson is a given whether he deserves it or not, due to his highly valued prospect status. Corriea is under contract and likely can't be moved......

 

With almost nothing available in free agency (I like Hughes but if the Yanks want him, they have him; E. Santana strikes me as the classic big contract mistake waiting to happen...) that means the last spot in the rotation goes to Hendriks, Diamond, Worley, et al.

 

So there you have it:

1. Deduno

2. Albers

3. Gibson

4. Corriea

5. Flotsam from AAA

 

Makes you want to go right out and renew those season tickets......(I actually think it could be a .500 rotation if they catch a break or two). What do you think?

 

Could very well happen...I do not with your assessment of available FA SPs, but I'm guessing he'll get another bottom-feeder or he goes with Diamond or Worley.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm not sure about it......I think one of Deduno/Albers will collapse, and there will be a spot for a FA. Whether they sign one we like or not, hard to say with certainty, but the past does not lead me to believe the future will be better, especially if they think May / Meyer are close, because they "won't want to block them" with long term deals for others.

[Marta Shearing]

Isn't Matt Garza a free agent? Especially with morneau's contract off the books, the money is there. Pipe dream, I know.

[PseudoSABR]

Oh boy, more painting the worse case scenario as the likely outcome!

 

The Twins added four starting pitchers last offseason (Pelfry, Correia, Harden, Worley). At the very least they will repeat last years crapshoot model.

 

But with all the money coming off the books, many of us are hoping for more than that.

[Willihammer]

I think that's realistic, probable even. Throw more good playing time after bad.

[PseudoSABR]

I think that's realistic, probable even.

No, it's not probably or realistic, it's totally cynical. There's no way the Twins don't go out and at the very least acquire a bevy of other options (from bad to mediocre to injury-recovering). And likely, they'll do more than that.

[Mike Sixel]

Oh boy, more painting the worse case scenario as the likely outcome!

 

The Twins added four starting pitchers last offseason (Pelfry, Correia, Harden, Worley). At the very least they will repeat last years crapshoot model.

 

But with all the money coming off the books, many of us are hoping for more than that.

 

 

How'd that work out? Worst starting staff in baseball. Not sure how we can predict a worse case scenario than that, can we?

[ThePuck]

Oh boy, more painting the worse case scenario as the likely outcome!

 

The Twins added four starting pitchers last offseason (Pelfry, Correia, Harden, Worley). At the very least they will repeat last years crapshoot model.

 

But with all the money coming off the books, many of us are hoping for more than that.

 

He wasn't asking what people are hoping will happen...that's a different thing entirely. We all HOPE for better pitching. He was saying how he thought it would turn out and asking what others thought. It's a completely legitimate topic of discussion, whether you like it or not.

 

As far as all that money coming off the books being spent, money was available this year to spend too.

 

The Twins four pitchers that you show as being added, three were coming off of injury and the other had never been even league average as a starter. That's nothing to aspire to or hope for, anyway. His scenario isn't any worse than THAT...

[mnfireman]

Per MLBTR:

 

Starting pitchers

Bronson Arroyo (37)

Scott Baker (32)

Erik Bedard (35)

A.J. Burnett (37)

Chris Capuano (35) - $8MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout

Chris Carpenter (39)

Bruce Chen (37)

Bartolo Colon (41)

Aaron Cook (35)

Jorge De La Rosa (33)

Scott Feldman (30)

Gavin Floyd (31)

Jeff Francis (33)

Freddy Garcia (37)

Jon Garland (34)

Matt Garza (30)

Roy Halladay (37) - $20MM vesting option

Jason Hammel (31)

Aaron Harang (36) - $7MM+ mutual option with a $2MM buyout

Dan Haren (33)

Roberto Hernandez (33)

Tim Hudson (38)

Phil Hughes (28)

Ubaldo Jimenez (30) - may void $8MM option for 2014

Josh Johnson (30)

Jeff Karstens (31)

Scott Kazmir (30)

Hiroki Kuroda (39)

Jon Lester (30) - $13MM club option with a $250K buyout

Colby Lewis (34)

Ted Lilly (38)

Tim Lincecum (30)

Paul Maholm (32)

Shaun Marcum (32)

Jason Marquis (35)

Ricky Nolasco (31)

Roy Oswalt (35)

Mike Pelfrey (30)

Andy Pettitte (42)

Wandy Rodriguez (35) - $13MM club option with a $2.5MM buyout

Jonathan Sanchez (31)

Ervin Santana (31)

Johan Santana (34) - $25MM club option with a $5.5MM buyout

Joe Saunders (33) - mutual option

James Shields (32) - $12MM club option with a $1MM buyout

Jason Vargas (31)

Ryan Vogelsong (36) - $6.5MM club option with a $300K buyout

Edinson Volquez (30)

Tsuyoshi Wada (33) - $5MM club option

Jake Westbrook (36) -- $9.5MM mutual option with a $1MM buyout.

Chien-Ming Wang (34)

Suk-min Yoon (27)

Chris Young (35)

Barry Zito (36) - $18MM vesting option with a $7MM buyout

[Linus]

Oh boy, more painting the worse case scenario as the likely outcome!

 

The Twins added four starting pitchers last offseason (Pelfry, Correia, Harden, Worley). At the very least they will repeat last years crapshoot model.

 

But with all the money coming off the books, many of us are hoping for more than that.

 

Actually, I am quite the opposite of cynical. See my prediction that I believe that rotation could be .500. The Twins have not been blessed with great luck lately on the injury front so maybe Worley pitches better and Hendriks figures it out at the major league level. And, if you want to look at the bright side, several of these pitchers could be acceptable to good back of the rotation starters, there's just no quality there and that ain't gonna get fixed in next year's free agent market. Hence the title, you ain't gonna like it.....

[PseudoSABR]

Whether or not the quality is there in FA is certainly arguable, but the Twins will still go out and acquire all kinds of arms to compete with the guys you list above. I don't think there's one spot guaranteed for next year, even for Deduno and Gibson.

[Mike Sixel]

If they do sign guys, I hope they are more Cubs like in their success at then turning them into good prospects.....

[Mike Frasier Law]

How'd that work out? Worst starting staff in baseball. Not sure how we can predict a worse case scenario than that, can we?

 

It certainly didn't work out well. But no one expected Pelfrey to have a 5.32 ERA (4.32 FIP indicates he's been better than that). No one expected Vance Worley to have a 7.21 ERA either (his 5.53 FIP and 4.77 xFIP are well below what people predicted). Fangraphs and Steamer predicted an ERA in the mid to high 4 range from both, which wouldn't have been great, but would have given the Twins at least a few more wins.I liked both acquisitions, and think it was a fluke that they turned out so poorly.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It certainly didn't work out well. But no one expected Pelfrey to have a 5.32 ERA (4.32 FIP indicates he's been better than that). No one expected Vance Worley to have a 7.21 ERA either (his 5.53 FIP and 4.77 xFIP are well below what people predicted). Fangraphs and Steamer predicted an ERA in the mid to high 4 range from both, which wouldn't have been great, but would have given the Twins at least a few more wins.I liked both acquisitions, and think it was a fluke that they turned out so poorly.

 

Well, there were some that thought Pelfrey had a good chance to tank. I wasn't one of them but they certainly posted about it before the season started.

 

As for Worley, his performance was surprising. I didn't expect him to be good but I certainly didn't expect him to be absolutely awful (and absolutely unlucky, to boot). Quite a combination.

 

Honestly, it wouldn't surprise me to see Ryan punt on free agent pitching again this offseason. With Diamond and Worley in the minors and pitching much worse than they did in 2012 after minor surgery, I think there's a good chance both will rebound in 2014 and Ryan will count on one of Worley, Diamond, Hendriks to step into the #5 slot.

 

Which I'm not entirely against... But really, the best thing the Twins could do at this point is find a way (any way) to offload Correia and replace him with a better free agent (Hughes, Johnson being my first choices). I'm all for letting the young kids try to improve and field a cheap roster internally but 32 year old mediocre pitchers shouldn't be taking up space on the 2014 roster.

[gunnarthor]

My guess is that Meyer, so long as his injury rehab is ok, makes the team out of ST next year. Correa starts opening day, followed by Meyer, Gibson. I don't know what happens with the last two spots - some combination of Diamond, Hendriks, Worley, Deduno and Albers but I think it's possible (likely) that the Twins make a few FA signings and/or a trade to add another starter. I don't think they'll make a huge splash in FA but maybe they sign Baker back or another Pelfrey type. I've read the rumors that they like Hughes and I think he'd pitch better here than in NY but I don't think they'll get him.

[Linus]

The problem, as I see it and tried to lay out in the post, is an issue of quality. They've got enough quantity, and with few exceptions, that lengthy list of free agents doesn't really help us (especially if you want someone young enough to be around a while). It really boils down to living with what we have or making a major trade, involving some of our top prospects. I am reluctant to endorse that as we have finally gotten to the point where our farm system has some depth and could produce multiple quality players each year for the foreseeable future.

[nicksaviking]

Which I'm not entirely against... But really, the best thing the Twins could do at this point is find a way (any way) to offload Correia and replace him with a better free agent (Hughes, Johnson being my first choices). I'm all for letting the young kids try to improve and field a cheap roster internally but 32 year old mediocre pitchers shouldn't be taking up space on the 2014 roster.

 

I doubt Ryan would do it but if Correia's $5 million is such a big deal, I'd prefer they waste the money and just cut him instead of signing what ever 2014 back of the rotation vet they have their eye on.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I doubt Ryan would do it but if Correia's $5 million is such a big deal, I'd prefer they waste the money and just cut him instead of signing what ever 2014 back of the rotation vet they have their eye on.

 

Yep. It's time to start thinking about improving and utilizing assets internally for mediocrity, not treading water with mediocrity across the board.

[Alex]

Hendricks?

I don't see them adding anything in FA unless they trade someone away.

[Danchat]

Albers ain't close to making the rotation. He's thrown 2 starts. He'll have to keep pitching well to get a spot next year. Deduno is in, Gibson is in only because he needs experience... then probably Phil Hughes/Scott Kazmir/Scott Feldman and Diamond/Worley.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Earlier this year I was guessing Logan Darnel, but he's not been terribly good in AAA this since his promotion. I honestly am not seeing much in terms of FA signings. Deduno and Albers will likely have earned an extended look next year. KC and Gibson aren't going anywhere (at least until KC is potentially traded). That leaves one spot. You can fill that with a FA and leave Worley, Hendricks, Meyer, May, and Darnel in Rochester to duke it out. Not a bad option, but even then that leaves us with a potential log jam there.

[StormJH1]

Nobody seriously thought Diamond was in our rotation plans in 2011, then he opened the year as "staff 'ace'" (I put "ace" in quotes twice to emphasize how much of a stretch that was). When Deduno came up in 2012, he wasn't considered any more realistic of a rotation option as DeVries, Walters, or anyone else...now he's this year's "ace".

 

Point being, yes, I think Albers is smoke and mirrors, but it don't take much to stick with this rotation.

 

As for free agency, I don't expect them to sign 4 guys, but I could see another Marquis-type signing. By 2014, really, both Meyer and Trevor May were supposed to be in the big league picture. Meyer pitched well, but is hurt. May has continued to strike guys out, but he's also getting hit. And neither of them can aim very well, which is of particular concern to THIS manager and pitching coach.

[Willihammer]

Oh don't forget Nick Blackburn. Obviously the Twins won't pickup his option but a minor league deal would interest both parties I suspect. Maybe he and KC can swap teams.

[matthew0211]

Deduno, Diamond, and Worley are going to be out of options. That's going to have an impact on who starts in the rotation next year. I can't see any of them clearing waivers for an outright assignment to AAA; Deduno would have the ability to become a free agent instead of going to Rochester, I believe.

[drjim]

If they do sign guys, I hope they are more Cubs like in their success at then turning them into good prospects.....

 

You mean one out of four signed flipped for two role players. That's your hope?

[drjim]

My guess is that Meyer, so long as his injury rehab is ok, makes the team out of ST next year. Correa starts opening day, followed by Meyer, Gibson. I don't know what happens with the last two spots - some combination of Diamond, Hendriks, Worley, Deduno and Albers but I think it's possible (likely) that the Twins make a few FA signings and/or a trade to add another starter. I don't think they'll make a huge splash in FA but maybe they sign Baker back or another Pelfrey type. I've read the rumors that they like Hughes and I think he'd pitch better here than in NY but I don't think they'll get him.

 

No chance Meyer starts the year with the Twins. They will protect him out of the gate but the hope is he will force his way on thw team within a month or two.

 

May has a much better chance to start the season in the majors.

[drjim]

I agree this is the most cynical analysis possible and at the very least they will add some slop.

 

But I genuinely expect at least one legitimate free agent based on options available and recent comments by Jim Pohlad.

[Larsbars08]

Bring back Johan on a one year deal. Why not? It would be cool to see him back in a Twins jersey, even if he doesn't make it back. Is there any chance he will be healthyish for 2014?

 

I assume that the Mets can't buy out his contract fast enough, right?

[AROG]

Bring back Johan on a one year deal. Why not? It would be cool to see him back in a Twins jersey, even if he doesn't make it back. Is there any chance he will be healthyish for 2014?

 

I assume that the Mets can't buy out his contract fast enough, right?

 

I actually really like this idea, especially if we are considering having Sano on the roster next year. The more veterans we have that speak his language the better for his conversion, even if they are a different dialect. Pipe dreams, but I like this one...