Article: What's the Plan: Miguel Sano

[Oxtung]

Well as I've said in the past, I think "is he ready for the majors" is the wrong question. For players on Sano's level it's impossible to know pre-promotion, and more importantly, it's an empty question. Ready for what? The only two questions are (1) will a promotion help or hurt Sano's development, and (2) will he help the Twins win? (One could argue fan interest is also important, but I disregard that.) As I've said many times, I believe he'll benefit from a taste of the MLB experience this offseason, and I also believe he's the best 3rd baseman in the organization. But my opinion isn't worth squat.

 

So considering the article that sparked this thread, the topic is September or sometime later. If you want to frame that as "is he ready," then I guess we're on the same page.

 

We're also on the same page with stats. Of course they don't tell the whole story, and subjective scouting plays a role. But let's not pretend that stats are just some small part. Saying that Sano's success "means nothing" and there's "literally no way" you can speak to his chances in the MLB is absurd.

 

Lastly, you're still comparing prospects. The issue is not whether Sano will ever live up to his potential/ranking, it's whether he should come up in September or sometime later. Delmon is an apt comparison in some ways since he came up at age 20. But I again pose the question whether you think that affected his development. (And compare with those like Moustakas who didn't get the nod until age 22.) Another comparison to Hicks is nauseating. If the Twins judgment is the comparison, then that points to calling up Sano immediately because they apparently blew the call on Hicks. Maybe it's time they pulled a Costanza.

 

Let me try a different tack. Why do you believe that Sano is ready to be called up to the majors?

[LaBombo]

Because Sano is in a different class, let's compare him to that class. Was Delmon Young's potential hindered by being called up at 20? Maybe, but it wouldn't be hard to argue that his limitations were only hidden at the MiLB levels. What about the Uptons who were both called up at 19? Better or worse if the had another 1-2 years in the minors? Moustakas isn't even in the conversation because he got called up at 22. (Did waiting hurt his development? - let's turn it around.) With the big 3 (Trout, Harper, Machado), it's really hard to argue that they needed more time, but then again we don't know yet if they'll reach their potential - Trout excluded I guess after last year's gem. Maybe bringing them up at 19/20 was a mistake?

Sano is striking out in 28 percent of his AA plate appearances. Not a single one of the players on your list was anywhere near that rate in AA. In fact, nearly all of them had K rates about 10 percentage points lower than Sano.

 

And as much as you don't want to compare Sano to Hicks, the latter struck out at a significantly lower rate than Sano in AA, just over 20%, and still struggled to make contact in the majors.

 

Also, it's odd that you should bring up Trout's name at all. He started 2012 in triple A, just like many people are hoping Sano will. If the Angels can do that with a guy who owned double A even more than Sano has, is there really anything keeping the Twins from doing it?

[Oxtung]

You are right, we don't know if he's ready.

My whole argument is not that I know he is, it's that he could be. It's, let's not dismiss it just because of his age.

My post was in response to the statement I'm getting tired of reading here:

"He's not ready, he's only 20 years old, he'd bat .200 in the MLB."

I'm guessing when the time comes, not even the Twins will know for sure if he's "ready". There is probably a lot of guesswork that goes into finally making that call.

Do you think the O's knew with 100% certainty that Machado was ready when they made the call? Maybe they did, but I doubt it.

Eventually, in every big time prospects career, there will be a line. On one side of that line they are a minor league player, then they get the call to cross that line and become a major league player. Do you think that even the organization knows EXACTLY, to the date, where that line is? I doubt it.

You don't wait until your kid is 18 years old before you decide they are old enough to be home alone. When are they ready? Much like prospects, every kid is different. You do your best to teach them, observe them, and one day you make an educated GUESS that, today is the day they are old enough to be home alone. Are you 100% certain that they are ready? Probably not, but at some point that day is going to come, and you can't just wait until you are 100%, absolutely without any doubt ready, because if you do they'll be 17 years old and still have to be babysat.

I'm not claiming I know if he's ready. From a far he looks ready, at least offensively, but yes, you are right, I don't know.

But, I'm tired of seeing other people state with certainty that they know he's NOT ready.

Sano is a special talent. It is so Minnesotan to keep hopes tempered. "He can't possibly be a Trout, Harper, Cabrera like prodigy, we are not that lucky."

Guess what, maybe we are.

 

In closing, I'll ask you a question.

Do you think, in the history of baseball, any team has ever pulled the trigger too late? Has any team ever waited to call up a prospect, when in hindsight they might have been ready sooner?

Obviously, without a time machine (so you can go back in time and try multiple call up dates), we can never prove one way or another exactly when a player is ready. But I'm guessing since GM's are human, and because of the laws of probability, that the answer is yes.

If the answer is yes, than it is at least possible that Sano is ready now, even if the Twins aren't sure.

That's all I'm saying. They know better than I do, but that doesn't mean they are perfect.

 

I agree with everything you've said here. I think you and I were just talking past one another when in reality we were trying to say the same things.

 

 

I would guess that there are prospects that have waited too long and failed because of it. Laws of probability and all. For the same reason I also think there are prospects that have failed because they've been pushed too fast. I don't have a clue who those are because, as you said, we don't have time machines.

 

If the Twins choose to hand Sano the reigns to 3B to start 2014, great! If they decide he needs some time at AAA, ok no problem. Let me know when he's ready.

[CharacterGroove]

Let me try a different tack. Why do you believe that Sano is ready to be called up to the majors?

 

I answered that actually. Again, I reject the empty question of whether he's "ready." My position is that a taste of The Show will help Sano's development this offseason, and that Sano's also the best 3rd baseman in the organization - giving the team the best chance to win this September.

 

All if that is debatable, of course, but "you don't know everything" isn't a very strong rebuttal.

[Ncgo4]

I'm not at all convinced about Sano. I hope with all my heart that my doubts are unfounded, but something just doesn't translate for me. He's hit a ton of HR's and RBI's that much is true. But he's hitting .238 and striking out about 1/3 of the time. This is at AA after killing pitching at A. I assume that major league pitching must be an equally large leap from AA as that level was from A.

 

If so, what can we reasonably expect? Do K's rise from 30% to 45%? Do HR's fall from 1 every 13 AB to one every 17 AB? How do the twins look at this fall off and justify a call up ths year? I don't know the answer, but I see bigger challenges than most people seem to see.

 

i sure hope I'm wrong because I am looking forward to seeing him in a Twins uni.

[Mr. Brooks]

Sano is striking out in 28 percent of his AA plate appearances. Not a single one of the players on your list was anywhere near that rate in AA. In fact, nearly all of them had K rates about 10 percentage points lower than Sano.

 

And as much as you don't want to compare Sano to Hicks, the latter struck out at a significantly lower rate than Sano in AA, just over 20%, and still struggled to make contact in the majors.

 

Also, it's odd that you should bring up Trout's name at all. He started 2012 in triple A, just like many people are hoping Sano will. If the Angels can do that with a guy who owned double A even more than Sano has, is there really anything keeping the Twins from doing it?

 

Trout's AAA time came AFTER his first big league call up.

[Oxtung]

I answered that actually. Again, I reject the empty question of whether he's "ready." My position is that a taste of The Show will help Sano's development this offseason, and that Sano's also the best 3rd baseman in the organization - giving the team the best chance to win this September.

 

All if that is debatable, of course, but "you don't know everything" isn't a very strong rebuttal.

 

In order for there to be a rebuttal we have to be at odds. Since I haven't taken a position on whether Sano is ready to face major league pitchers (yes I know you don't like this phrase) how could I be rebutting you?

 

Since you didn't like my previous vocubulary, why do you think that Sano is ready to continue his development at the major league level? Why do you think Sano is the best 3B in the organization? Why does he give the Twins the best chance to win in September?

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm not at all convinced about Sano. I hope with all my heart that my doubts are unfounded, but something just doesn't translate for me. He's hit a ton of HR's and RBI's that much is true. But he's hitting .238 and striking out about 1/3 of the time. This is at AA after killing pitching at A. I assume that major league pitching must be an equally large leap from AA as that level was from A.

 

If so, what can we reasonably expect? Do K's rise from 30% to 45%? Do HR's fall from 1 every 13 AB to one every 17 AB? How do the twins look at this fall off and justify a call up ths year? I don't know the answer, but I see bigger challenges than most people seem to see.

 

i sure hope I'm wrong because I am looking forward to seeing him in a Twins uni.

 

The batting average probably has a lot to do with his babip dropping 90 points from his career average. While some of that can be attributed to better defense, it's certainly not 90 points worth! With neutral luck I would think that he would be hitting close to .300.

 

28% is not "about 1/3" of the time, in fact it's much closer to 1/4 of the time than it is to 1/3 of the time.

It is also pretty close to his career norm. It was 26% at low A, and 25.1% at High A. He could be striking out more, or it could be chalked up to SSS. Either way it has to be within the MOE for a couple hundred AB's.

If you are going to bring up his slightly increased K rate, I also feel it's only fair to mention his slightly improved BB rate.

If his K rate is suddenly such a concern, then how did he become the #3 overall prospect in baseball? Because it's pretty much right in line with his career numbers at every other level.

 

BTW: Just so we are clear, I am not saying the Twins should call him up this year. I'm not even saying that he should start next year on the club.

I'm just saying that he COULD be ready as soon as right now.

Doesn't mean he is, but I certainly wouldn't claim someone else is wrong if their opinion is that he's not, so my posts are in frustration to other people claiming that I am wrong for thinking he might be.

[LaBombo]

Trout's AAA time came AFTER his first big league call up.

And?

 

So will Sano's, assuming they call him up in September. If they don't, and the explanation is that he's not ready, then we should have our answer about whether they should trot him out there on opening day.

[Oxtung]

If his K rate is suddenly such a concern, then how did he become the #3 overall prospect in baseball? Because it's pretty much right in line with his career numbers at every other level.

 

You are certainly right that his K rate is not a problem for national analysts and even for the Twins at this point since they keep promoting him. I wonder if that changes when he gets to the majors though. Arcia has seemingly been benched a couple of times after he strikes out a bunch.

[CharacterGroove]

Sano is striking out in 28 percent of his AA plate appearances. Not a single one of the players on your list was anywhere near that rate in AA. In fact, nearly all of them had K rates about 10 percentage points lower than Sano.

 

And as much as you don't want to compare Sano to Hicks, the latter struck out at a significantly lower rate than Sano in AA, just over 20%, and still struggled to make contact in the majors.

 

Also, it's odd that you should bring up Trout's name at all. He started 2012 in triple A, just like many people are hoping Sano will. If the Angels can do that with a guy who owned double A even more than Sano has, is there really anything keeping the Twins from doing it?

 

Do you consider any other statistics of value? Because I'll be honest I'm not sold on strikeouts being the sole harbinger of success in the majors.

 

I'm actually glad you brought up Trout again. The young man got 40 games in the bigs as a 19-year-old in 2011. He didn't do spectacular, of course, but I wonder what he would say now about the experience. Certainly didn't hurt him going into 2012

[Mr. Brooks]

And?

 

So will Sano's, assuming they call him up in September. If they don't, and the explanation is that he's not ready, then we should have our answer about whether they should trot him out there on opening day.

 

Because they took an aggressive shot and brought him up straight from AA. It didn't go as well as they hoped, so they started him at AAA the next year, and the rest is history.

I don't get why people act like the young man will be destroyed forever if we call him up too soon and he has to go back down for a few weeks.

It's the same thing I didn't understand when the explanation for keeping Gibson down was, "we don't want to call him up until he can stay up for good."

My question was why? Why is it the end of the world if a guy struggles and has to go down for a few weeks?

If a guy is that mentally fragile that it's going to ruin him if he has to go back down once or twice, then eventually he's going to fail no matter what.

[CharacterGroove]

In order for there to be a rebuttal we have to be at odds. Since I haven't taken a position on whether Sano is ready to face major league pitchers (yes I know you don't like this phrase) how could I be rebutting you?

 

Since you didn't like my previous vocubulary, why do you think that Sano is ready to continue his development at the major league level? Why do you think Sano is the best 3B in the organization? Why does he give the Twins the best chance to win in September?

 

1. Because I think Sano has an alpha dog mentality. I think it would be good for him to feel the rush of The Show. He'd then have several months to think about it - about what he needs to do before April. That's my read.

 

2. Because Plouffe is an average bat and glove. I think Sano is already at his level as a MLB talent, with a significantly higher upside with experience. I understand that's all speculative and debatable. But the fact that Plouffe has been*lackluster is not

 

3. Better players improve a team's chance of winning.

[Willihammer]

Again, I'm not arguing he isn't ready. My point is not I, and I would guess you, have any direct knowledge of if he is ready or not.

 

People pushing for his advancement in this thread seem to be wanting him pushed because they look at his stats, his placement as a prospect or a couple of quotes and assume they know everything there is to know. In a perfect world those would be enough to judge a prospect. We could just slot him in at 3B and call it good for the next decade. But reality is not that neat. Just because a prospect puts up impressive numbers doesn't mean he is ready.

 

Vernon Wells seems to be a pretty good comp here. He started his age 20 season at A+ FSL where he OPSed .946. He was promoted to AA where he OPSed .919 which earned him a promotion to the International League and AAA. After posting a .837 OPS there he got a September callup to Toronto where he put up an .646 OPS in 24 games. Beginning his age 21 season he was ranked by BA as the #4 prospect.

 

He hardly played in the majors over the next two seasons and wouldn't be an everyday player until 23. Even then he OPSed .762 which, while decent, is not destroying the league. It wasn't until he was 24, 4 years after his first taste of the majors, that Wells put up a great season OPSing .909.

 

So, can we use stats or not?

 

The ironic thing is that there are stats which measure a guy's component skills but OPS isn't one of them. For example OBP and BB% give you a sense of a guy's plate discipline, ISO or AB/HR for raw power, K% for his contact ability, etc. So no, speaking strictly in terms of OPS it would be impossible to declare Sano ready to outperform Wells, Delmon Young, Jesus Montero, Mike Moustakas or any of these other guys. However I think that's a very limited perspective even for those of us following Sano's development from 1000 miles away.

 

Here is the thing, what is going to make or break Sano's career is power. In that respect, all these other comps fall short. None of them really touches Sano except Moustakas.

 

Who would I use as comps? Guys who, like Sano, have surpassed .300 ISOs in High A and / or Double A at age 20 or younger. Namely, Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Justin Upton, Jay Bruce, Giancarlo Stanton and... that's about it.This is a very select tier of players and by my count, 3 of the 5 are doing just fine while the other two are still too young to give up on.

 

And even if the two Royals do prove to be flops, it will be because they didn't have the talent to stick in the MLB, not because the Royals destroyed their skills by promoting them at a young age.

[CharacterGroove]

So, can we use stats or not?

 

The ironic thing is that there are stats which measure a guy's component skills but OPS isn't one of them. For example OBP and BB% give you a sense of a guy's plate discipline, ISO or AB/HR for raw power, K% for his contact ability, etc. So no, speaking strictly in terms of OPS it would be impossible to declare Sano ready to outperform Wells, Delmon Young, Jesus Montero, Mike Moustakas or any of these other guys. However I think that's a very limited perspective even for those of us following Sano's development from 1000 miles away.

 

Here is the thing, what is going to make or break Sano's career is power. In that respect, all these other comps fall short. None of them really touches Sano except Moustakas.

 

Who would I use as comps? Guys who, like Sano, have surpassed .300 ISOs in High A and / or Double A at age 20 or younger. Namely, Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Justin Upton, Jay Bruce, Giancarlo Stanton and... that's about it.This is a very select tier of players and by my count, 3 of the 5 are doing just fine while the other two are still too young to give up on.

 

And even if the two Royals do prove to be flops, it will be because they didn't have the talent to stick in the MLB, not because the Royals destroyed their skills by promoting them at a young age.

 

And that's really what this discussion is about: September, April, May, June, or sometime thereafter. It's not about whether Sano will reach his potential. (And to be honest, as much as I've taken the "aggressive" position, I'm not bullish on his prospects as an All-Star talent.)

 

My position is based more on the philosophy of giving your ace the ball. I don't think Sano is the type of guy who needs to be protected from failure, and the Twins are certainly a team that needs his skills as soon as possible. And as good as Sano's skills are, he'll need MLB experience. Everybody will agree with that. The Twins can start that process down the road or seize a potential opportunity. It's a risk-reward thing for me: I don't see the reasonable downside.

[Ncgo4]

Mr Brooks wrote:

 

"28% is not "about 1/3" of the time, in fact it's much closer to 1/4 of the time than it is to 1/3 of the time.

It is also pretty close to his career norm. It was 26% at low A, and 25.1% at High A. He could be striking out more, or it could be chalked up to SSS. Either way it has to be within the MOE for a couple hundred AB's."

 

As of tonight Sano has 66 K's in 197 AB's. 66/197 = 33.5 %. I fully understand that 200 AB's do not constitute an adequate statistical sample. Also, I am not making a case that Miguel is less (or more) than his hype. I was just pointing out the obvious observation that he has had some hitting issues at the higher minor leage level. And I was asking if this was a concern when considering if he should be promoted two levels more by taking him to the majors this season's last few weeks.

[LaBombo]

Do you consider any other statistics of value? Because I'll be honest I'm not sold on strikeouts being the sole harbinger of success in the majors.

 

I'm actually glad you brought up Trout again. The young man got 40 games in the bigs as a 19-year-old in 2011. He didn't do spectacular, of course, but I wonder what he would say now about the experience. Certainly didn't hurt him going into 2012

Of course Sano's other stats have value in deciding his future. But he lags well behind the names you mentioned in terms of his ability to make contact, and that will probably get worse in the majors, especially if he skips AAA.

 

Only a handful of MLB hitters are able to be consistently valuable with strikeout rates over 25%. Sano has the potential to be one of those guys, but why rush him when there is a glaring weakness in his game?

 

And while I think the Twins organization is a little too wrapped up in 'play the game the right way' (especially Sano's silly multigame sit after the home run trot), I'd rather see Sano take as many of those lumps as possible in the minors instead of the majors.

 

Not sure I ever raised an objection to a September callup for Sano. In a developmental vacuum it's relatively harmless at worst, and somewhat beneficial at best.

 

My concern would be that a fluky-good September and a Hicksian spring training would lead the Twins to make the same mistake with Sano that they did with Hicks. Then again, maybe they'll make that mistake based on a good spring alone. Hard to say.

 

At any rate, we're not going to see eye to eye on Sano's 2014 anyway, because most of what I've read leads me to believe that service time really is a critical issue. For that reason alone it looks to me like it would be a big mistake to start Sano in the majors next year.

[Oxtung]

So, can we use stats or not?

 

The ironic thing is that there are stats which measure a guy's component skills but OPS isn't one of them. For example OBP and BB% give you a sense of a guy's plate discipline, ISO or AB/HR for raw power, K% for his contact ability, etc. So no, speaking strictly in terms of OPS it would be impossible to declare Sano ready to outperform Wells, Delmon Young, Jesus Montero, Mike Moustakas or any of these other guys. However I think that's a very limited perspective even for those of us following Sano's development from 1000 miles away.

 

Here is the thing, what is going to make or break Sano's career is power. In that respect, all these other comps fall short. None of them really touches Sano except Moustakas.

 

Who would I use as comps? Guys who, like Sano, have surpassed .300 ISOs in High A and / or Double A at age 20 or younger. Namely, Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Justin Upton, Jay Bruce, Giancarlo Stanton and... that's about it.This is a very select tier of players and by my count, 3 of the 5 are doing just fine while the other two are still too young to give up on.

 

And even if the two Royals do prove to be flops, it will be because they didn't have the talent to stick in the MLB, not because the Royals destroyed their skills by promoting them at a young age.

 

Your point is well taken about OPS versus more component specific stats. Still, let's take K% to look at his contact rate. He is striking out at a rate of 28.3% right now in AA (yes I'm sure that's coming down from his rough early stretch) that is approaching a dangerous level of strikeouts. Even for sluggers there is a point at which the strikeout rate becomes prohibitive to their over all value. So, 28%, what does that tell you? Is he having trouble with breaking pitches? Is it fastballs up? Is he caught looking because he's too patient? Before a judgement can be made on how he will handle major league pitching one must first know the cause of the problem and that is something we just don't have available to us, unless you are aware of much more detailed statistics for the minor leagues than I am.

 

Let's look at BB%. Is he walking at a good clip because minor league pitchers are scared to throw him strikes? Or does he actually have a good eye at the plate? Both? Again, the statistics I have don't have that kind of precision.

 

Is his babip high because he crushes balls and therefore more gets through for hits or because he's just been lucky? How will he handle failure, because it is guaranteed at some point in the majors? Is he mature enough to handle the fame that is going to follow his ascension? As soon as he is called up he will be front page news on ESPN (perhaps not for a Sept call up but he will be when he gets called up next season).

 

Statistics can tell you quite a bit especially with major league players that have years of detailed track records. I think that if the underlying data were available the entire game of baseball could be described using probabilities, but that data doesn't exist at the minor league level, at least that I am aware of. Perhaps you know where to find it?

[Oxtung]

As of tonight Sano has 66 K's in 197 AB's. 66/197 = 33.5 %. I fully understand that 200 AB's do not constitute an adequate statistical sample.

 

K% and BB% are currently usually defined as per plate appearance, not per at bat. I think that is where your disagreement lies. When you look per plate appearance he is at 28.3%. Somebody once mentioned, and I can't remember who it was on this board, that Fangraphs used to define % per AB but switched to per PA at some point in the recent past.

[Oxtung]

1. Because I think Sano has an alpha dog mentality. I think it would be good for him to feel the rush of The Show. He'd then have several months to think about it - about what he needs to do before April. That's my read.

 

2. Because Plouffe is an average bat and glove. I think Sano is already at his level as a MLB talent, with a significantly higher upside with experience. I understand that's all speculative and debatable. But the fact that Plouffe has been*lackluster is not

 

3. Better players improve a team's chance of winning.

 

1) I don't believe his attitude has much bearing on whether he is ready to continue his development at the major league level. If that was the deciding factor then he probably should have just signed a major league contract at 16 and this would have been solved long ago.

 

2-3) You answered these questions by basically saying "I believe ...." with out giving any reasons why you believe. There is some underlying reason I'm guessing and not just a gut feeling.

[Willihammer]

Before a judgement can be made on how he will handle major league pitching one must first know the cause of the problem and that is something we just don't have available to us, unless you are aware of much more detailed statistics for the minor leagues than I am.

 

Or, you could just stick in the major leagues and find out. As another poster said, I hightly doubt the Twins aren't also guessing as to what moment exactly Sano is "ready." At some point we are all just going to have to see how he handles it even if he hasn't ironed out every flaw in his swing.

 

What do you think is the worst that can happen?

 

Sano strikes out a lot. So did Miggy Cabrera when he was 20. Guys need reps to get better, I think the level where they see those reps is a secondary point.

 

If after a good look at what MLB pitchers have to offer he is not showing progress, you can always option him back down.

[CharacterGroove]

Of course Sano's other stats have value in deciding his future. But he lags well behind the names you mentioned in terms of his ability to make contact, and that will probably get worse in the majors, especially if he skips AAA.

 

Only a handful of MLB hitters are able to be consistently valuable with strikeout rates over 25%. Sano has the potential to be one of those guys, but why rush him when there is a glaring weakness in his game?

 

And while I think the Twins organization is a little too wrapped up in 'play the game the right way' (especially Sano's silly multigame sit after the home run trot), I'd rather see Sano take as many of those lumps as possible in the minors instead of the majors.

 

Not sure I ever raised an objection to a September callup for Sano. In a developmental vacuum it's relatively harmless at worst, and somewhat beneficial at best.

 

My concern would be that a fluky-good September and a Hicksian spring training would lead the Twins to make the same mistake with Sano that they did with Hicks. Then again, maybe they'll make that mistake based on a good spring alone. Hard to say.

 

At any rate, we're not going to see eye to eye on Sano's 2014 anyway, because most of what I've read leads me to believe that service time really is a critical issue. For that reason alone it looks to me like it would be a big mistake to start Sano in the majors next year.

 

A point of disagreement between us might be that I don't believe a September call-up would fall under "rushing" Sano to the bigs. I think it's a rather reasonable progression considering his talent, the fact that he's finishing his 4th good year as a professional, and the fact that he turns 21 next spring.

[CharacterGroove]

1) I don't believe his attitude has much bearing on whether he is ready to continue his development at the major league level. If that was the deciding factor then he probably should have just signed a major league contract at 16 and this would have been solved long ago.

 

2-3) You answered these questions by basically saying "I believe ...." with out giving any reasons why you believe. There is some underlying reason I'm guessing and not just a gut feeling.

 

Attitude (i.e., confidence), maturity, and all other emotional and/or psychological attributes are major factors in athletic success. I know you understand that so I really don't understand your point here. Argue for the sake of arguing? If you are, at least stay on topic and say "no, Sano seems like a delicate flower, and may be irreversibly harmed if he does poorly at the MLB level this fall." Or you can always fall back on: "I don't know Sano's makeup, and neither do you, so it's all too speculative." I can't disagree with that.

 

My opinion on Sano is based on scouting reports and box scores. My opinion is of course bolstered by the success of other elite prospects with similar experience and success at the MiLB level. My opinion on Plouffe is based on first-hand viewing and box scores.

[Oxtung]

Attitude (i.e., confidence), maturity, and all other emotional and/or psychological attributes are major factors in athletic success. I know you understand that so I really don't understand your point here. Argue for the sake of arguing? If you are, at least stay on topic and say "no, Sano seems like a delicate flower, and may be irreversibly harmed if he does poorly at the MLB level this fall." Or you can always fall back on: "I don't know Sano's makeup, and neither do you, so it's all too speculative." I can't disagree with that.

 

My opinion on Sano is based on scouting reports and box scores. My opinion is of course bolstered by the success of other elite prospects with similar experience and success at the MiLB level. My opinion on Plouffe is based on first-hand viewing and box scores.

 

You missed my point which is fine. I don't know what the second half of your first paragraph is meant to be, but it is comical.

 

I asked why you believed Sano deserved a promotion. You replied, because he had "an alpha dog personality". The idea that a players personality should be used to determine when somebody is ready for a promotion is poorly thought out. If Sano has an "alpha dog personality", and I have no idea how one could know that from a few interviews and a few quotes, he has had that since before he was signed. Therefore, using your logic, he should have been promoted to the majors when he was acquired at 16 years old.

 

So if Sano is not called up in September or start next season as the 3B starter does that mean the Twins are wrong? Or does that mean you are wrong?

[Oxtung]

Or, you could just stick in the major leagues and find out. As another poster said, I hightly doubt the Twins aren't also guessing as to what moment exactly Sano is "ready." At some point we are all just going to have to see how he handles it even if he hasn't ironed out every flaw in his swing.

 

What do you think is the worst that can happen?

 

Sano strikes out a lot. So did Miggy Cabrera when he was 20. Guys need reps to get better, I think the level where they see those reps is a secondary point.

 

If after a good look at what MLB pitchers have to offer he is not showing progress, you can always option him back down.

 

You're absolutely right that they are to a degree "guessing", but they at least have all the information there is available to make an informed decision. No matter how much you and I search we just don't have that information about the minor leagues and more importantly about Sano himself.

 

You seem to be advocating tossing Sano into a pool of water without knowing if it is 3 ft. deep or 30 and just hoping that the kid can swim even though standing right next to you is the pool owner.

 

I do believe that players can be irreversibly damaged by pushing too fast for the same reason I believe players can be damaged by stagnation.

 

There are real consequences to promoting players too quickly. Let's look at Hicks. The Twins lost most of a season of team control, which in Sano's case could be tens of millions of dollars. Hicks never could learn to adapt so he basically wasted a year of potential development time. He has soured his profile in the public's mind. I'm sure there are more but those are off the top of my head.

 

If guys just need reps and it doesn't matter where they get them then why push him that quickly, assuming the Twins think he isn't ready? 2014 is a lost season and I know that you agree with me there. Whether he gets a Sept call up, starts next season as the 3B or comes up in June it doesn't change the fact that he will get significant playing time in 2014 and be penciled in somewhere to start 2015.

[CharacterGroove]

You missed my point which is fine. I don't know what the second half of your first paragraph is meant to be, but it is comical.

 

I asked why you believed Sano deserved a promotion. You replied, because he had "an alpha dog personality". The idea that a players personality should be used to determine when somebody is ready for a promotion is poorly thought out. If Sano has an "alpha dog personality", and I have no idea how one could know that from a few interviews and a few quotes, he has had that since before he was signed. Therefore, using your logic, he should have been promoted to the majors when he was acquired at 16 years old.

 

So if Sano is not called up in September or start next season as the 3B starter does that mean the Twins are wrong? Or does that mean you are wrong?

 

I actually replied with three answers - one for each of your three questions. Please correct me if I'm straying. My first point related to Sano's "alpha dog personality." And I might add that I didn't expect my opinion with that to be interpreted on an island. His accolades are well documented.

 

With your subsequent zinger, please notice that my answer of "alpha dog personality" was not in response to any question about "deserv[ing] a promotion." Regardless, if that's the general question now posed, let's use some logic. I don't know any 16-year-olds with Sano's numbers, scouting reports, and of course experience. Do you? I've been arguing that it makes sense for Sano to "continue his development at the major league level." I didn't pull that question out of thin air.

 

On the topic of logic, you'll have to rephrase those last two questions.

[Oxtung]

I actually replied with three answers - one for each of your three questions. Please correct me if I'm straying. My first point related to Sano's "alpha dog personality." And I might add that I didn't expect my opinion with that to be interpreted on an island. His accolades are well documented.

 

With your subsequent zinger, please notice that my answer of "alpha dog personality" was not in response to any question about "deserv[ing] a promotion." Regardless, if that's the general question now posed, let's use some logic. I don't know any 16-year-olds with Sano's numbers, scouting reports, and of course experience. Do you? I've been arguing that it makes sense for Sano to "continue his development at the major league level." I didn't pull that question out of thin air.

 

On the topic of logic, you'll have to rephrase those last two questions.

 

This is pointless and frustrating. You seem unwilling to stand by your previous comments. I'll just list my point of view a final time and then walk away from this thread.

 

It is great to see Sano putting up big time stats and being highly ranked. Hopefully that bodes well for his future. However, there have been other highly ranked, stat stuffers that have been pushed quickly to the Majors and failed. Rankings and stats are not everything when it comes to minor league promotion. Prospects fail and succeed based on more than their stats. It is the little things that can make or break a prospect, little things that we can not know because we don't get to see these players on a regular basis. We don't get to know them on a personal level. No matter how much we read or listen to reports and interviews we can't glean enough to make a judgement on a particular player. The only people with enough of the information, and therefore in the best position to make a determination, are the Twins instructors, personnel and staff.

 

I don't know this is the case, but it seems a few of you think that if the Twins don't promote Sano in September or if he isn't the opening day starter at 3B then the Twins have made the wrong decision. That seems illogical.

 

Now, if your argument was that the Twins move prospects slowly as a whole and some of them could be moved quicker, I might be able to get behind that.

[CharacterGroove]

This is pointless and frustrating. You seem unwilling to stand by your previous comments. I'll just list my point of view a final time and then walk away from this thread.

 

It is great to see Sano putting up big time stats and being highly ranked. Hopefully that bodes well for his future. However, there have been other highly ranked, stat stuffers that have been pushed quickly to the Majors and failed. Rankings and stats are not everything when it comes to minor league promotion. Prospects fail and succeed based on more than their stats. It is the little things that can make or break a prospect, little things that we can not know because we don't get to see these players on a regular basis. We don't get to know them on a personal level. No matter how much we read or listen to reports and interviews we can't glean enough to make a judgement on a particular player. The only people with enough of the information, and therefore in the best position to make a determination, are the Twins instructors, personnel and staff.

 

I don't know this is the case, but it seems a few of you think that if the Twins don't promote Sano in September or if he isn't the opening day starter at 3B then the Twins have made the wrong decision. That seems illogical.

 

Now, if your argument was that the Twins move prospects slowly as a whole and some of them could be moved quicker, I might be able to get behind that.

 

I'll be even more straightforward. My "alpha dog mentality" comment was in response to your question of "why think Sano should continue his development at the major league level." (Post #103) You replied by saying that my comment essentially argues that Sano should have always been in the bigs. (#110) I didn't think that nonsensical point was worth a response, so I instead focused on why you're even arguing this in the first place, because I know you understand the emotional and psychological aspect of player development. (#113) For reasons only you know, you then decided to double down on that nonsensical argument. (#114) In doing so, however, and undoubtedly as a crutch, you framed a completely different question, and then mocked my putative answer to that question. (same)

 

Not only do I stand by my previous comments, I'll remind you exactly what I said. (It's all on record.) This whole line of questioning started with a question of "Why do you believe that Sano is ready to be called up to the majors?" (#91). If you go from there, you'll see that my comment of "alpha dog mentality" became one part of that general answer. (#94, 97, to previous cites)

 

In response this post, I still agree that I'm not in the best position to make a decision, and that variables not seen in box scores or scouting reports should matter. But I disagree with your repeated assertion that one variable to consider is the fact that other highly-ranked prospects that were brought to the majors at age 20 have failed.

 

It's a wrong decision if Sano's best interests are not served. This, of course, has a strong relationship with the Twins' best interests. My argument should be pretty clear based on that "logic."

[Ncgo4]

Opting, your comments were spot on. Only speaking for myself, I look at numbers and draw conclusions. There's nothing wrong with this, my Dad used to say, "It's results that count." But as you point out it's incomplete as far as true evaluation.

 

In terms of evaluating Sano's current value and his readiness to be moved up his current raw statistics are what should be used. As far as measuring his potential stardom and establishing a training/teaching plan we need the things you pointed out. Why is he striking out so much? Can't hit a curve ball? Doesn't know the strike zone. Can't pick up the ball coming off the pitchers hand?

 

It would be interesting to know what the Twins brain trust believes the answers are. You can bet the opposition has been charting these kinds of things and they think they know the answers.

[CharacterGroove]

I didn't quite catch the exact same period, but below is Sano's numbers in A+ and AA through approximately the same period.

 

[TABLE=class: dataTableClass, width: 615]

[TR=class: headerRow]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]Team[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]League[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]AVG[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]G[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]AB[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]R[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]H[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]2B[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]3B[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]HR[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]RBI[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]TB[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]BB[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]SO[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]SB[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]CS[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]OBP[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]SLG[/TD]

[TD=bgcolor: #666666, align: center]OPS[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: dataRow even]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]FTM[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]FSL[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center].330[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]56[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]206[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]51[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]68[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]15[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]16[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]48[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]135[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]29[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]61[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]9[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center].424[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center].655[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #CCCCCC, align: center]1.079[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: dataRow odd]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]NBR[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]EAS[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center].244[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]60[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]209[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]32[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]51[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]14[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]17[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]51[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]120[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]29[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]71[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]2[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center]1[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center].340[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center].574[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, align: center].914[/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: dataRow highlightRow even]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]Minors[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center] [/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center].287[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]116[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]415[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]83[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]119[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]29[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]4[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]33[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]99[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]255[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]58[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]132[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]11[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center]3[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center].382[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center].614[/TD]

[TD=class: dataCell, bgcolor: #EEEEEE, align: center].996[/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

 

Looking at the full picture, the average can be a little deceiving.