Article: What's the Plan: Miguel Sano

[Willihammer]

How differently does Joe Mauer's contract play out if the Twins were able to lock him up after the 2010 season instead of before it?

 

That's a curious example. Instead of looking at a healthy 26 year old coming off an MVP, 1.030 OPS, 28 HR MVP season, they would be looking at a 27 year old who needed a 2nd knee surgery and had just seen his production drop back to the mid .800 range.

 

So... 6 / 90, something like that?

[Willihammer]

All that is to say, when you're talking elite talents, an extra year does buy you more time to wait for an "off" year, if that's your strategy. But waiting could just as easily drive up a player's value further. Those years where a player is 25-27 are the prime after all.

 

Whether you have the extra year or not, the real money is saved when you make those decisions well before a player reaches their prime, eg. Longoria, I think. Its less a question of service time and more a question of age IMO.

[Badsmerf]

Comparing Sano to Hicks isn't even a conversation. They are completely different players with completely different tools/deficiencies. The only thing they'd have in common is skipping AAA and getting their first taste of the bigs. Obviously Sano might struggle a little at first, but like Arcia, you'd see real flashes of the potential. I'm not as confident about Hicks. Hopeful, but not confident.

[Oxtung]

I think the service clock/team control stuff should be a consideration, but not a determining factor. It sort of astounds me that so many fans get caught up in it, to the extent that they'll advocate leaving a player sitting in the minors even when they believe he could be making a legitimate impact for the big-league club. In the end it's all just about how much money is spent, and why are we worrying about that so much when the front office itself -- evidently -- is not?

 

Baseball's system is designed to allow teams to keep their homegrown stars, if they'll pony up. I'm confident the Twins will pay what it takes to keep Sano around for a long time if he's good enough.

 

The point isn't can they keep Sano assuming he's good enough. The question is can they keep all of Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Stewart, Rosario, etc... Those contracts add up. The next question is can you sign any meaningful free agents in addition to paying your core? For those that want to wait for a few years before signing FA's those few millions of dollars could become extremely important. If the Twins spend "only a few millions extra per year", on let's say 4 contracts, that's potentially 8-10 million per year that can't be used on FA's. That is significant money. That's the difference between Anibal Sanchez and Joe Blanton.

[Mr. Brooks]

Good article, Nick. You laid it out very well.

 

I understand not wanting to compare Sano and Hicks, but I would have thought Hicks should of been more ready for the majors than Sano is likely to be. I am not all that passinate about it, I suspect Sano will be to the majors soon enough, and there are some benefits to keeping him in the minors a little longer, beyond the obvious that he probably isn't really quite ready.

 

Sano is going to be the 3B when he gets to the majors, at least until he proves he can't play there, which probably won't happpen. I would think one important thing that could be found out if Sano stays in the minors, is finding out more about Flouffe. If he could prove he is a serviceable 3B(Say, Casey Blake like-his upside I think) he becomes a pretty valuable trading chip, I would think.

 

We all think that Sano, Rosario, Buxton and perhaps a couple others, are going to be pretty darn good. If that turns out to be true, it would be nice to have some solid pieces around them. Plouffe could be one of them or perhaps a means to get one.

 

I really am not too in to the possible service time issues. They could be very important I imagine, but it is so difficult to guess what is going to happen next year, much 5 years down the road. What I do believe is that there is no big gain to be had by rushing prospects to the majors too quickly. I remember the early 80's and late 90's, as good as some of those players got to be, it really wasn't that much fun watching them learn things they should have known before they got to the majors.

 

Some guys are generational players who ARE good enough to be in the majors when they are 20 or 21 years old.

Trout, Harper and Manny Machado seem to be doing just fine.

[Thegrin]

On Saturday 8-17, on am 1500, Terry Ryan, when asked, said it would be unlikely that Sano would be called up in September.

[Mike Sixel]

On Saturday 8-17, on am 1500, Terry Ryan, when asked, said it would be unlikely that Sano would be called up in September.

 

 

No surprise there....so not much, again, to look forward to in September. Two years in a row now.

[drjim]

On Saturday 8-17, on am 1500, Terry Ryan, when asked, said it would be unlikely that Sano would be called up in September.

 

40 man roster excuse.

[Mike Sixel]

40 man roster excuse.

 

was it really? I need to know before I type what I'm thinking............

[jokin]

was it really? I need to know before I type what I'm thinking............

 

Yeah. I read the same. As I stated earlier in the thread, that's an incredibly lame excuse if there is actually any organizational concern about possibly risking the loss of a Hermsen, et al.

[drjim]

was it really? I need to know before I type what I'm thinking............

 

It's not the only reason, Ryan hinted that he doesn't think Sano is quite ready - offensively or defensively. That is surely debatable.

[drjim]

Two other things on the September callup:

 

1. If the Twins call up Sano and he suffers a serious injury over the offseason that keeps him out of the lineup next year, the Twins lose that service time as he would be on the dl to start the season. This is a slight chance (but think Kubel).

 

That is a risk worth taking, except that

2. It is questionable what 3-4 weeks of time in September really does for his development. I personally want to see him play, but developmentally it might be just as beneficial to go to Rochester for the playoffs or to go home and play winter ball. Plus it would give one final look at Plouffe (though that ship may have sailed already).

[TRex]

A September call-up might be a nice carrot to get him to forgo playing in the winter leagues, though.

[Highabove]

The point isn't can they keep Sano assuming he's good enough. The question is can they keep all of Sano, Buxton, Meyer, Stewart, Rosario, etc... Those contracts add up. The next question is can you sign any meaningful free agents in addition to paying your core? For those that want to wait for a few years before signing FA's those few millions of dollars could become extremely important. If the Twins spend "only a few millions extra per year", on let's say 4 contracts, that's potentially 8-10 million per year that can't be used on FA's. That is significant money. That's the difference between Anibal Sanchez and Joe Blanton.

 

The Twins will be 50 million dollars below the 2011 payroll. Should Money really be an issue? Unfortunately, Ryan and the Pohlad's will probably make it an issue.

[Ncgo4]

He's probably not ready offensively, IMHO. He is still struggling at the plate at this level. Even though he is hitting for amazing power he has become a very one dimensional hitter. They do not need to bring bim and create a great deal of doubt in his mind.

[Mr. Brooks]

He's probably not ready offensively, IMHO. He is still struggling at the plate at this level. Even though he is hitting for amazing power he has become a very one dimensional hitter. They do not need to bring bim and create a great deal of doubt in his mind.

 

Was he lucky at every other level he's played, or unlucky so far at AA?

Because the only difference causing his AVG to sink is a massive drop in babip.

 

He's not struggling at the plate at all, he's dominating AA just like he's dominated every other level. He's 3rd in the Eastern League in OPS right now. His K and BB rates are right in line with his other levels.

[Willihammer]

My hunch is Sano is fully aware of just how talented he is. I doubt a few strikeouts in the MLB will create much doubt in his mind about that.

 

When I stand back and look at Sano, I see a guy who is the closest to a sure thing we've had in a long time. Maybe ever.

 

The Twins will need his bat next year. Call him up, give him the winter to sleep on his experience, and plan on starting him at 3rd next spring. And if he takes Felix Hernandez yard then lock him up till he's about 32.

[drjim]

My hunch is Sano is fully aware of just how talented he is. I doubt a few strikeouts in the MLB will create much doubt in his mind about that.

 

When I stand back and look at Sano, I see a guy who is the closest to a sure thing we've had in a long time. Maybe ever.

 

The Twins will need his bat next year. Call him up, give him the winter to sleep on his experience, and plan on starting him at 3rd next spring. And if he takes Felix Hernandez yard then lock him up till he's about 32.

 

I agree with this. Except Buxton might be more of a sure thing.

[Mr. Brooks]

Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado.

All came up at 19 or 20.

Sano has outperformed all of their minor league performances except Trout, who had pretty similar minor league production.

Were those guys rushed?

Minor league PA's:

Machado: 928

Trout: 1312

Harper: 550

Cabrera: 1597

Sano: 1556

 

Minor league OPS:

Machado: .776

Trout: .941

Harper: .874

Cabrera: .782

Sano: .938

 

Minor league games at AA or higher:

Machado: 109

Trout: 91

Harper: 58

Cabrera: 69

Sano: 56

 

Does Sano still have things to work on? Sure, I bet he does.

But I bet those guys did too. That doesn't mean he can't have success. That doesn't mean he can't work on those things here, even while being productive out of the gate.

[Oxtung]

Miguel Cabrera, Mike Trout, Bryce Harper, Manny Machado.

All came up at 19 or 20.

Sano has outperformed all of their minor league performances except Trout, who had pretty similar minor league production.

Were those guys rushed?

Minor league PA's:

Machado: 928

Trout: 1312

Harper: 550

Cabrera: 1597

Sano: 1556

 

Minor league OPS:

Machado: .776

Trout: .941

Harper: .874

Cabrera: .782

Sano: .938

 

Minor league games at AA or higher:

Machado: 109

Trout: 91

Harper: 58

Cabrera: 69

Sano: 56

 

Does Sano still have things to work on? Sure, I bet he does.

But I bet those guys did too. That doesn't mean he can't have success. That doesn't mean he can't work on those things here, even while being productive out of the gate.

 

There is a long list of highly touted prospects that were rushed to the majors and struggled mightily as well. We should be familiar with 2 of them. Just because they're highly touted doesn't guarantee that they are ready for the jump. Looking at stats on a page can only tell you so much when you're talking about a 20 year old.

[Oxtung]

The Twins will be 50 million dollars below the 2011 payroll. Should Money really be an issue?

 

Well that is the question. The Royals, where most of us hope the Twins are in a couple years, are paying $11 million in arbitration this year. According to B-Ref that will jump to $32 million in 2014 and $70 million in 2016. There is >0% chance payroll will be an issue when our players reach arbitration even if the Pohlad's open their wallets.

[Mr. Brooks]

There is a long list of highly touted prospects that were rushed to the majors and struggled mightily as well. We should be familiar with 2 of them. Just because they're highly touted doesn't guarantee that they are ready for the jump. Looking at stats on a page can only tell you so much when you're talking about a 20 year old.

 

There is a big difference between top 5 prospects in all of baseball, and fringe top 50-100 prospects like Hicks and Gibson.

Besides, I'm not saying its a 100% sure thing, I'm just saying that top prospects his age, and with his minor league track record CAN come up and be ready to mash, some people on this board are completely dismissing the idea, acting like its impossible for a 20 year old to be ready.

[Oxtung]

There is a big difference between top 5 prospects in all of baseball, and fringe top 50-100 prospects like Hicks and Gibson.

Besides, I'm not saying its a 100% sure thing, I'm just saying that top prospects his age, and with his minor league track record CAN come up and be ready to mash, some people on this board are completely dismissing the idea, acting like its impossible for a 20 year old to be ready.

 

You are absolutely right that they can. It's also true that top prospects, like Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Jesus Montero or Mike Moustakas, can struggle. It doesn't matter how highly they are ranked, it is a big jump to the majors.

 

Moving prospects up the ladder is less about their statistics and more about the intangibles. How does his swing look? How is his footwork defensively. Will he be able to handle failure and learn from it? Will he be able to handle success? There are many questions that need to be answered and most of them aren't found in a box score. The only ones who can offer an educated guess are those with personal knowledge of Senor Sano. The Twins aren't always correct, Mr. Hicks says hi, but they are still in the best position to make the decision.

[CharacterGroove]

You are absolutely right that they can. It's also true that top prospects, like Delmon Young, Carlos Gomez, Jesus Montero or Mike Moustakas, can struggle. It doesn't matter how highly they are ranked, it is a big jump to the majors.

 

Moving prospects up the ladder is less about their statistics and more about the intangibles. How does his swing look? How is his footwork defensively. Will he be able to handle failure and learn from it? Will he be able to handle success? There are many questions that need to be answered and most of them aren't found in a box score. The only ones who can offer an educated guess are those with personal knowledge of Senor Sano. The Twins aren't always correct, Mr. Hicks says hi, but they are still in the best position to make the decision.

 

The issue is not whether Sano will "struggle" as a MLB player. It's also not about rankings. The issue is whether a promotion will hurt or improve his development - what helps him reach his potential at the MLB level.

 

Brooks was showing the class he's in as far as potential. Seeing Sano's numbers should cause you to immediately disregard any comparison to Hicks, Gibson, or any of the good (but not elite) prospects that have come through the Twins organization the past dozen or so years.

 

Because Sano is in a different class, let's compare him to that class. Was Delmon Young's potential hindered by being called up at 20? Maybe, but it wouldn't be hard to argue that his limitations were only hidden at the MiLB levels. What about the Uptons who were both called up at 19? Better or worse if the had another 1-2 years in the minors? Moustakas isn't even in the conversation because he got called up at 22. (Did waiting hurt his development? - let's turn it around.) With the big 3 (Trout, Harper, Machado), it's really hard to argue that they needed more time, but then again we don't know yet if they'll reach their potential - Trout excluded I guess after last year's gem. Maybe bringing them up at 19/20 was a mistake?

 

You're comfortable just trusting some subjective "he's not ready." Okay. But I submit that we'll never know the answer to two important questions you posed unless he's given the opportunity. In turn I prefer being "aggressive" because I just don't see the downside. I have no worries whatsoever that Sano's confidence might break, or that somehow he'll develop bad habits that can't be remedied. Again, Sano's an elite prospect with success at every level he's played - not Hicks!

[Oxtung]

The issue is not whether Sano will "struggle" as a MLB player. It's also not about rankings. The issue is whether a promotion will hurt or improve his development - what helps him reach his potential at the MLB level.

 

Brooks was showing the class he's in as far as potential. Seeing Sano's numbers should cause you to immediately disregard any comparison to Hicks, Gibson, or any of the good (but not elite) prospects that have come through the Twins organization the past dozen or so years.

 

Because Sano is in a different class, let's compare him to that class. Was Delmon Young's potential hindered by being called up at 20? Maybe, but it wouldn't be hard to argue that his limitations were only hidden at the MiLB levels. What about the Uptons who were both called up at 19? Better or worse if the had another 1-2 years in the minors? Moustakas isn't even in the conversation because he got called up at 22. (Did waiting hurt his development? - let's turn it around.) With the big 3 (Trout, Harper, Machado), it's really hard to argue that they needed more time, but then again we don't know yet if they'll reach their potential - Trout excluded I guess after last year's gem. Maybe bringing them up at 19/20 was a mistake?

 

You're comfortable just trusting some subjective "he's not ready." Okay. But I submit that we'll never know the answer to two important questions you posed unless he's given the opportunity. In turn I prefer being "aggressive" because I just don't see the downside. I have no worries whatsoever that Sano's confidence might break, or that somehow he'll develop bad habits that can't be remedied. Again, Sano's an elite prospect with success at every level he's played - not Hicks!

 

Actually what was being discussed is if Sano is ready for the majors. My point has been, he might be or he might not be, but I certainly don't know that from 1000 miles away looking at box scores and reading a few quotes. The only ones with that kind of knowledge are the Minnesota Twins. They haven't been perfect with predictions, this is where Hick's comes in, but they are still the only ones with the requisite information to make the determination.

 

Elite prospects can succeed, you pointed out several, but being elite is no guarantee. I submit, according to Baseball America, #1 prospect Delmon Young, #3 Jesus Montero and #9 Mike Moustakas. Claiming that Sano is "an elite prospect with success at every level" means nothing when it comes to the majors. The pitchers there don't care. Let's look at Delmon Young's minor league statistics.

 

A- .926 OPS as an 18 year old.

AA - .968 OPS as a 19 year old.

AAA- .814 OPS as a 20 year old in half season before being called up.

 

Delmon hit better at every step so far and was a year younger.

 

Sano could be Machado or Moustakas. We don't know. The difference between the two lies in the intangibles, those things that I have no access to. It isn't about trusting the Twins, it's that there is no way I could know if Sano is ready. Literally no way.

[Willihammer]

My point has been, he might be or he might not be, but I certainly don't know that from 1000 miles away looking at box scores and reading a few quotes.

 

There are plenty of organizational quotes praising Sano for making strides with the intangibles, esp. defensively. Will he ever be Adrian Beltre? I doubt it. And I don't think you keep him stashed away in AA or AAA for an extended period of time chasing that white rabbit when his bat is clearly ready for a promotion.

 

Will he struggle with the first Justin Verlander curveball he sees? Almost certainly. Will he struggle with the 2nd one? Only one way to find out.

 

Yes, prospects bust more than not. Even elite ones. But I'd argue they bust because they don't have the talent to stick in the MLB, not because their parent club destroyed their ability to play baseball by promoting them up at a young age.

 

edit: Forgot chasing the white rabbit means something totally different. How does the phrase go? chasing Sasquatch maybe. I'll go with that.

[CharacterGroove]

Actually what was being discussed is if Sano is ready for the majors. My point has been, he might be or he might not be, but I certainly don't know that from 1000 miles away looking at box scores and reading a few quotes. The only ones with that kind of knowledge are the Minnesota Twins. They haven't been perfect with predictions, this is where Hick's comes in, but they are still the only ones with the requisite information to make the determination.

 

Elite prospects can succeed, you pointed out several, but being elite is no guarantee. I submit, according to Baseball America, #1 prospect Delmon Young, #3 Jesus Montero and #9 Mike Moustakas. Claiming that Sano is "an elite prospect with success at every level" means nothing when it comes to the majors. The pitchers there don't care. Let's look at Delmon Young's minor league statistics.

 

A- .926 OPS as an 18 year old.

AA - .968 OPS as a 19 year old.

AAA- .814 OPS as a 20 year old in half season before being called up.

 

Delmon hit better at every step so far and was a year younger.

 

Sano could be Machado or Moustakas. We don't know. The difference between the two lies in the intangibles, those things that I have no access to. It isn't about trusting the Twins, it's that there is no way I could know if Sano is ready. Literally no way.

 

Well as I've said in the past, I think "is he ready for the majors" is the wrong question. For players on Sano's level it's impossible to know pre-promotion, and more importantly, it's an empty question. Ready for what? The only two questions are (1) will a promotion help or hurt Sano's development, and (2) will he help the Twins win? (One could argue fan interest is also important, but I disregard that.) As I've said many times, I believe he'll benefit from a taste of the MLB experience this offseason, and I also believe he's the best 3rd baseman in the organization. But my opinion isn't worth squat.

 

So considering the article that sparked this thread, the topic is September or sometime later. If you want to frame that as "is he ready," then I guess we're on the same page.

 

We're also on the same page with stats. Of course they don't tell the whole story, and subjective scouting plays a role. But let's not pretend that stats are just some small part. Saying that Sano's success "means nothing" and there's "literally no way" you can speak to his chances in the MLB is absurd.

 

Lastly, you're still comparing prospects. The issue is not whether Sano will ever live up to his potential/ranking, it's whether he should come up in September or sometime later. Delmon is an apt comparison in some ways since he came up at age 20. But I again pose the question whether you think that affected his development. (And compare with those like Moustakas who didn't get the nod until age 22.) Another comparison to Hicks is nauseating. If the Twins judgment is the comparison, then that points to calling up Sano immediately because they apparently blew the call on Hicks. Maybe it's time they pulled a Costanza.

[Oxtung]

There are plenty of organizational quotes praising Sano for making strides with the intangibles, esp. defensively. Will he ever be Adrian Beltre? I doubt it. And I don't think you keep him stashed away in AA or AAA for an extended period of time chasing that white rabbit when his bat is clearly ready for a promotion.

 

Will he struggle with the first Justin Verlander curveball he sees? Almost certainly. Will he struggle with the 2nd one? Only one way to find out.

 

Yes, prospects bust more than not. Even elite ones. But I'd argue they bust because they don't have the talent to stick in the MLB, not because their parent club destroyed their ability to play baseball by promoting them up at a young age.

 

edit: Forgot chasing the white rabbit means something totally different. How does the phrase go? chasing Sasquatch maybe. I'll go with that.

 

Again, I'm not arguing he isn't ready. My point is not I, and I would guess you, have any direct knowledge of if he is ready or not.

 

People pushing for his advancement in this thread seem to be wanting him pushed because they look at his stats, his placement as a prospect or a couple of quotes and assume they know everything there is to know. In a perfect world those would be enough to judge a prospect. We could just slot him in at 3B and call it good for the next decade. But reality is not that neat. Just because a prospect puts up impressive numbers doesn't mean he is ready.

 

Vernon Wells seems to be a pretty good comp here. He started his age 20 season at A+ FSL where he OPSed .946. He was promoted to AA where he OPSed .919 which earned him a promotion to the International League and AAA. After posting a .837 OPS there he got a September callup to Toronto where he put up an .646 OPS in 24 games. Beginning his age 21 season he was ranked by BA as the #4 prospect.

 

He hardly played in the majors over the next two seasons and wouldn't be an everyday player until 23. Even then he OPSed .762 which, while decent, is not destroying the league. It wasn't until he was 24, 4 years after his first taste of the majors, that Wells put up a great season OPSing .909.

 

Here was a player the same age, played in the same leagues and put up almost the same numbers. He was called up and it was determined he wasn't ready. And he wouldn't be for another 4 years. Even though his stats and prospect rankings said he was ready he still had things to work on and improve on before he could conquer the majors.

 

The only people who know if Sano has holes in his game are the Minnesota Twins. Maybe he is ready, in which case great that will be exciting, but maybe, despite his lofty status and great stats, he still has holes in his game like Wells that need to be ironed out so that when his time comes he can dominate. Ultimately that is what we all want, Miguel Cabrera part two.

[Mike Sixel]

The Twins don't know for sure either.....no one knows the future with certainty.

 

What is the argument you two are making, that we shouldn't argue if he's ready or not because we don't know? Or something else?

[Mr. Brooks]

Actually what was being discussed is if Sano is ready for the majors. My point has been, he might be or he might not be, but I certainly don't know that from 1000 miles away looking at box scores and reading a few quotes. The only ones with that kind of knowledge are the Minnesota Twins. They haven't been perfect with predictions, this is where Hick's comes in, but they are still the only ones with the requisite information to make the determination.

 

Elite prospects can succeed, you pointed out several, but being elite is no guarantee. I submit, according to Baseball America, #1 prospect Delmon Young, #3 Jesus Montero and #9 Mike Moustakas. Claiming that Sano is "an elite prospect with success at every level" means nothing when it comes to the majors. The pitchers there don't care. Let's look at Delmon Young's minor league statistics.

 

A- .926 OPS as an 18 year old.

AA - .968 OPS as a 19 year old.

AAA- .814 OPS as a 20 year old in half season before being called up.

 

Delmon hit better at every step so far and was a year younger.

 

Sano could be Machado or Moustakas. We don't know. The difference between the two lies in the intangibles, those things that I have no access to. It isn't about trusting the Twins, it's that there is no way I could know if Sano is ready. Literally no way.

 

You are right, we don't know if he's ready.

My whole argument is not that I know he is, it's that he could be. It's, let's not dismiss it just because of his age.

My post was in response to the statement I'm getting tired of reading here:

"He's not ready, he's only 20 years old, he'd bat .200 in the MLB."

I'm guessing when the time comes, not even the Twins will know for sure if he's "ready". There is probably a lot of guesswork that goes into finally making that call.

Do you think the O's knew with 100% certainty that Machado was ready when they made the call? Maybe they did, but I doubt it.

Eventually, in every big time prospects career, there will be a line. On one side of that line they are a minor league player, then they get the call to cross that line and become a major league player. Do you think that even the organization knows EXACTLY, to the date, where that line is? I doubt it.

You don't wait until your kid is 18 years old before you decide they are old enough to be home alone. When are they ready? Much like prospects, every kid is different. You do your best to teach them, observe them, and one day you make an educated GUESS that, today is the day they are old enough to be home alone. Are you 100% certain that they are ready? Probably not, but at some point that day is going to come, and you can't just wait until you are 100%, absolutely without any doubt ready, because if you do they'll be 17 years old and still have to be babysat.

I'm not claiming I know if he's ready. From a far he looks ready, at least offensively, but yes, you are right, I don't know.

But, I'm tired of seeing other people state with certainty that they know he's NOT ready.

Sano is a special talent. It is so Minnesotan to keep hopes tempered. "He can't possibly be a Trout, Harper, Cabrera like prodigy, we are not that lucky."

Guess what, maybe we are.

 

In closing, I'll ask you a question.

Do you think, in the history of baseball, any team has ever pulled the trigger too late? Has any team ever waited to call up a prospect, when in hindsight they might have been ready sooner?

Obviously, without a time machine (so you can go back in time and try multiple call up dates), we can never prove one way or another exactly when a player is ready. But I'm guessing since GM's are human, and because of the laws of probability, that the answer is yes.

If the answer is yes, than it is at least possible that Sano is ready now, even if the Twins aren't sure.

That's all I'm saying. They know better than I do, but that doesn't mean they are perfect.