Article: What's the Plan: Miguel Sano

[70charger]

I lean toward the conservative side of things too. I think the extra year of control has the potential to be huge, I think he'd have a good learning experience in AAA (and maybe even struggle a bit, which would be better there than in the majors), and there are 40-man implications for a Sano callup this year.

 

Speaking of which, if we're keeping Sano off the 40-man due to roster conservatism, I don't think Deibinson Romero is even in the conversation.

[drjim]

I think it's becoming more evident that Sano is the type of guy that you absolutely want to control for seven years. Hicks was borderline (and I was against his call-up at the time) but Sano is dominating the high minors at such a young age that it's hard to envision him with a floor lower than "pretty good third baseman" with a ceiling of "holy *&^%".

 

I disagree. He is the type of player that should be locked up early and render service time moot.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I have no interest in worrying about service time issues, for either team control or arbitration. For me, I choose the conservative route because I think a player needs to show he can compete/succeed at Triple-A before he gets a shot at the majors. The quality of play there is an improvement over Double-A, and if a player can not do well there he has no business being considered for a major league roster. It doesn't have to be a long look - 2-3 months is fine, and if he shows he can handle it, then give him the big test.

 

I know some see the Triple-A level as a parking spot for borderline major league players and see Double-A as the final "proving ground" for major league talent, but if Sano can not succeed facing pitchers who are borderline major league players, he certainly won't succeed against those who truly belong in the major leagues. Let's make sure he's ready before throwing him in the deep end.

[Linus]

I am in the camp of it doesn't make sense to bring them up until they are ready to contribute at the major league level. I'm all for him playing in Rochester this fall for the playoffs and start at AAA next year. When he has proven himself there for a sufficient period of time (say half a season) then bring him up. The goal should be that once he comes up he is ready to stay and contribute, then we don't have to worry about service time. As far as a September call up, its not happening. TR has already stated that and I think it is the correct decision. He doesn't have to be added to the 40 man so it doesn't make any sense to take up a spot when you don't have to. Yes, I realize there are several people they can DFA, but there are probably an equal number of valuable prospects they have to add or risk losing. Plus, they need a spot or two open for trades / Phil Hughes

[DJL44]

I doubt the Twins will give Sano a September callup mostly due to roster considerations. Sano will play winter ball. I know they'll have him competing for the 3B job in spring training next season. Terry Ryan has a lot of work to do to acquire pitching this offseason. If Plouffe can help get a pitcher he will be gone, just like Ben Revere. If Plouffe is still here in April he will keep Sano in AAA for a little while until they can trade Trevor. Ryan has to manage his assets during this transition. Several veteran players (Plouffe, Doumit, Willingham, Burton, Duensing, Correia) will be shopped this offseason as Terry Ryan remakes his roster with younger players (Tonkin, Pinto, Hicks, Sano, etc).

 

I agree that they won't worry about service time with Sano. He's a good candidate for an Evan Longoria type contract. Having Target Field is supposed to mean they don't have to nickel and dime their own players.

[ashbury]

I disagree. He is the type of player that should be locked up early and render service time moot.

 

Service time is a pretty good bargaining chip when negotiating that buy-out contract.

[drjim]

Service time is a pretty good bargaining chip when negotiating that buy-out contract.

 

Might cost a couple more million but in the context of a 6+ year contract it's not that significant.

[drjim]

I am in the camp of it doesn't make sense to bring them up until they are ready to contribute at the major league level. I'm all for him playing in Rochester this fall for the playoffs and start at AAA next year. When he has proven himself there for a sufficient period of time (say half a season) then bring him up. The goal should be that once he comes up he is ready to stay and contribute, then we don't have to worry about service time. As far as a September call up, its not happening. TR has already stated that and I think it is the correct decision. He doesn't have to be added to the 40 man so it doesn't make any sense to take up a spot when you don't have to. Yes, I realize there are several people they can DFA, but there are probably an equal number of valuable prospects they have to add or risk losing. Plus, they need a spot or two open for trades / Phil Hughes

 

When did TR say that? I have heard him say something quite different recently that it hasn't been determined.

 

Also, while roster space is a concern there is potentially huge marketing gains for the Twins if they call him up. A couple of bombs could move the needle on season tickets.

[PseudoSABR]

From Warne's column today:

Miguel Sano homered again Tuesday for Double-A New Britain, his 30th of the season. Sano isn't on the 40-man roster, and doesn't have to be added until after next season as a matter of procedure, but Ryan wasn't outwardly dismissive of the potential for a late-season callup for the 20-year-old third baseman.

 

"It's always a possibility," Ryan said. "I will only bring up guys who deserve to come up." Ryan did make note of the fact that the Twins have brought players up from Double-A in the past, including Chuck Knoblauch, Joe Mauer, and most recently, Chris Parmelee and Joe Benson.

[Steve Lein]

I really hope the Twins take a more conservative route with Sano. ... I think it will be very much in the Twins interests to hold him back in AAA a month or so as that extra year of Sano could be worth 20-30 million dollars down the road, as well as giving them an extra year to try and iron out a contract extension. I am very fearful they bring him up to open 2014 as the starting 3B.

 

This is one thing about team-control years I extremely dislike. If it takes you 6 years to figure out if a player fits in the teams future plans, he probably doesn't.

 

To quasi-quote another poster: "He is the type of player that [hopefully will perform and] be locked up early and render service time moot."

 

Frankly, with how the Twins are constructed right now, money isn't even a conversation worth having in regard to Sano. You can't project anything 6 years from now in that regard, and the payroll is going to continue shrinking - they'll have the needed money to spend.

[Linus]

When did TR say that? I have heard him say something quite different recently that it hasn't been determined.

 

Also, while roster space is a concern there is potentially huge marketing gains for the Twins if they call him up. A couple of bombs could move the needle on season tickets.

 

His Saturday morning radio show on 1500ESPN about 2-3 weeks ago. Mackey asked him point blank and he answered very directly that he would not be called up this September because he does not have to be added to the 40 man yet.

[Jdosen]

This is one thing about team-control years I extremely dislike. If it takes you 6 years to figure out if a player fits in the teams future plans, he probably doesn't.

 

To quasi-quote another poster: "He is the type of player that [hopefully will perform and] be locked up early and render service time moot."

I agree that after 6 years of control, the Twins will know what they have in Sano, and yes hopefully the Twins buy up his team control years and a few free agency years as well, but the extra year of service time makes that contract they will sign Sano to one year longer, which is immensely valuable.

 

On the flip side, the Twins aren't the Rays, and I don't know if I trust the FO to sign him to a deal like this, so I hope they take the conservative route with him, just in case they need that extra year of him before he hits free agency.

 

2020 Miguel Sano at age 27 for a full season is going to be worth a lot more than 20 games of 2014 Miguel Sano in his age 21 season.

[Brock Beauchamp]

I disagree. He is the type of player that should be locked up early and render service time moot.

 

The thing is that teams "lock up" arb-eligible players based on remaining service time. Add another year of service, punt on locking the player up for 12 more months.

 

How differently does Joe Mauer's contract play out if the Twins were able to lock him up after the 2010 season instead of before it? IMO, it's even more vital to think about service time when you're dealing with a rare talent, as you get one more year of them in their physical prime to make a decision about an extension and the difference could be tens of millions of dollars over the life of a contract.

[CharacterGroove]

This is one thing about team-control years I extremely dislike. If it takes you 6 years to figure out if a player fits in the teams future plans, he probably doesn't.

 

To quasi-quote another poster: "He is the type of player that [hopefully will perform and] be locked up early and render service time moot."

 

Frankly, with how the Twins are constructed right now, money isn't even a conversation worth having in regard to Sano. You can't project anything 6 years from now in that regard, and the payroll is going to continue shrinking - they'll have the needed money to spend.

 

Thank you. I sometimes think fans look at these situations like it's a video game. There's no way to project out 6 years. I can't fathom holding back a superior player for 1/3 of 2014 (indeed a franchise desperately in need of wins) in order to cue up an optimal situation in 2020.

[CharacterGroove]

The thing is that teams "lock up" arb-eligible players based on remaining service time. Add another year of service, punt on locking the player up for 12 more months.

 

How differently does Joe Mauer's contract play out if the Twins were able to lock him up after the 2010 season instead of before it? IMO, it's even more vital to think about service time when you're dealing with a rare talent, as you get one more year of them in their physical prime to make a decision about an extension and the difference could be tens of millions of dollars over the life of a contract.

 

It can play out in countless ways over those years. The first objective, however, is to win games. Good fortune follows wins.

 

(And I'm assuming Sano gives us the best chance to win next spring. If he comes out in Hicksian fashion, either this September or next spring, I'm 100% behind letting him find himself in AAA.)

[eagle]

Sano is a generational type player, it doesn't matter how good the pitching is, he will adjust to it. If his defense is what they say it is, there is no reason why they should keep him stuck in the minors when in all likelyhood, Morneau and Willingham will be gone and only Mauer will draw fans. Can you imagine the buzz Sano will bring to Target Field? He will instantly fill seats and guess what guys, the Twins are going to have to back up the Brinks truck anyways, what the hell is the difference if it is a year earlier.

 

I hate when people compare Hicks to Sano because they are apples to oranges. Hicks never batted about .300 in any year in the minors. There was absolutely no reason for the Twins to start him in majors but I do believe with Mastrioni being hurt, it forced their hand. Sano is on an entirely different stratosphere compared to Hicks. He flat out hits and produces runs, something the Twins lack (sans this last week).

 

IMO, he deserves to play day 1 next year and should be called up after the AA season is over.

 

One thing to note. AAA pitchers are better than AA but AA pitchers have more upside and more than not, house teams most prized prospects.

[CharacterGroove]

One thing everyone should agree on is that Aaron Hicks' MLB performance and/or career projection is irrelevant to Miguel Sano.

[Brock Beauchamp]

It can play out in countless ways over those years. The first objective, however, is to win games. Good fortune follows wins.

 

(And I'm assuming Sano gives us the best chance to win next spring. If he comes out in Hicksian fashion, either this September or next spring, I'm 100% behind letting him find himself in AAA.)

 

Baseball is all about hedging your bets. And a betting man would take these odds:

 

162 games of age 27 Miguel Sano > 35 games of age 21 Miguel Sano

 

The Twins are unlikely to compete in 2014 and even if they do, a month+ of Miguel Sano probably isn't going to change that one way or the other.

 

Most people seem to agree that the Rays have one of the smartest front offices in baseball and they didn't hesitate to make Wil Myers sit in AAA for a couple of months to start 2013. It's the prudent move that gives you more flexibility going forward. It's not "video gamey", it's gaming the system to your advantage and keeping your options open during critical years of a player's career.

[troyhobbs]

I have no interest in worrying about service time issues, for either team control or arbitration. For me, I'm for the conservative route because I think a player needs to show he can compete/succeed at Triple-A before he gets a shot at the majors. The quality of play there is an improvement over Double-A, and if a player can not do well there he has no business being considered for a major league roster. It doesn't have to be a long look - 2-3 months is fine, and if he shows he can handle it, then give him the big test.

 

I know some see the Triple-A level as a parking spot for borderline major league players and see Double-A as the final "proving ground" for major league talent, but if Sano can not succeed facing pitchers who are borderline major league players, he certainly won't succeed against those who truly belong in the major leagues. Let's make sure he's ready before throwing him in the deep end.

 

Even if Sano dominates AAA for a couple months he'll still have growing pains and needs for adjustments once in the bigs. Like hiring or promoting someone for a job you don't expect them to start killing it on their first day. Not everyone needs AAA experience although I'm all for him starting '14 in Rochester though mostly for team control reasons.

[DAM DC Twins Fans]

 

I'd like to see him get the call in September just to see MLB pitchers. The game will be different and getting a taste will only make him better. He should still start the season in AAA until his arb clock is past in May. Then call him up and keep him up for good. Plouffe will need to start producing a little more to garner a starting spot. I doubt the Twins dump him anytime soon since he is cheap, provides position flexibility, and has some pop in his bat.

 

I agree--he deserves to get the Sept. cup of coffee. Clearing a roster spot from the 40 man wont be that much of a problem--maybe that's why Morneau is on waivers anyway. Give him a few games at 3B or 1B. Whether Sano starts next year at Rochester or Minnesota will depend on spring training. If he starts in Minnesota and is overwhelmed like Hicks was, OK give him a month in Rochester. I hope the Twins FO ignores the service clock issues and gives Sano a long-term contract in 2015 anyway.

[CharacterGroove]

Baseball is all about hedging your bets. And a betting man would take these odds:

 

162 games of age 27 Miguel Sano > 35 games of age 21 Miguel Sano

 

The Twins are unlikely to compete in 2014 and even if they do, a month+ of Miguel Sano probably isn't going to change that one way or the other.

 

Most people seem to agree that the Rays have one of the smartest front offices in baseball and they didn't hesitate to make Wil Myers sit in AAA for a couple of months to start 2013. It's the prudent move that gives you more flexibility going forward. It's not "video gamey", it's gaming the system to your advantage and keeping your options open during critical years of a player's career.

 

Of course a 27-year-old Sano (~155 games) is a much better option than a 21-year-old Sano (~35 games) (Although keep in mind some have suggested bringing him up in June - hence my 1/3 of the year comment.) But that's a false choice. The "aggressive" route does not prevent the Twins from having Sano until he retires.

 

Your hedging your bets thinking the team will save X number of dollars in the future by playing the waiting game now. Okay. A legitimate alternative is that it won't make a bit of financial difference 6 years down the road whether Sano begins his MLB career this September. There are just so many variables in play between now and then that it's a fruitless exercise.

 

Another difference of opinion we may have is that I haven't conceded 2014. Related to that I firmly believe that a competitive team next year will reap rewards in 2015 and beyond. So I want the best possible team on the field, and then let the cards fall where they may.

 

Not that I disregard your point. The ideal situation of course includes having Sano under an extra year of control. It's just not something that would drive my decision.

[LaBombo]

One thing everyone should agree on is that Aaron Hicks' MLB performance and/or career projection is irrelevant to Miguel Sano.

So you're saying we shouldn't have the slightest concern about an AA hitter with contact issues skipping AAA just because the last AA hitter with contact issues who skipped AAA was a disaster at the plate?

[Nick Nelson]

I think the service clock/team control stuff should be a consideration, but not a determining factor. It sort of astounds me that so many fans get caught up in it, to the extent that they'll advocate leaving a player sitting in the minors even when they believe he could be making a legitimate impact for the big-league club. In the end it's all just about how much money is spent, and why are we worrying about that so much when the front office itself -- evidently -- is not?

 

Baseball's system is designed to allow teams to keep their homegrown stars, if they'll pony up. I'm confident the Twins will pay what it takes to keep Sano around for a long time if he's good enough.

[drjim]

His Saturday morning radio show on 1500ESPN about 2-3 weeks ago. Mackey asked him point blank and he answered very directly that he would not be called up this September because he does not have to be added to the 40 man yet.

 

Hmmm. I hears the same interview and remember it pretty much like was quoted a couple posts back. They won't close the door and if he keeps hitting like he has he will force a callup.

[drjim]

The thing is that teams "lock up" arb-eligible players based on remaining service time. Add another year of service, punt on locking the player up for 12 more months.

 

How differently does Joe Mauer's contract play out if the Twins were able to lock him up after the 2010 season instead of before it? IMO, it's even more vital to think about service time when you're dealing with a rare talent, as you get one more year of them in their physical prime to make a decision about an extension and the difference could be tens of millions of dollars over the life of a contract.

 

The big mistake with Mauer was only signing him for 4 years in his initial extension. Ryan has actually never signed a contract longer than that but this will have to change.

 

I'm just not that concerned about a couple extra million per year. As stated the system is set up gor Sano to be a Twin as long as they'll have him.

 

Plus I'm selfish, I want to see the guy play. I can guarantee I'll buy more tickets in September if he is on the roster.

[CharacterGroove]

So you're saying we shouldn't have the slightest concern about an AA hitter with contact issues skipping AAA just because the last AA hitter with contact issues who skipped AAA was a disaster at the plate?

 

If your hypothetical actually suggests a comparison between the minor league careers of Aaron Hicks and Miguel Sano, and in turn whether Hicks serves as a useful guide, then absolutely not.

[drjim]

I think the service clock/team control stuff should be a consideration, but not a determining factor. It sort of astounds me that so many fans get caught up in it, to the extent that they'll advocate leaving a player sitting in the minors even when they believe he could be making a legitimate impact for the big-league club. In the end it's all just about how much money is spent, and why are we worrying about that so much when the front office itself -- evidently -- is not?

 

Baseball's system is designed to allow teams to keep their homegrown stars, if they'll pony up. I'm confident the Twins will pay what it takes to keep Sano around for a long time if he's good enough.

 

I think for most teams this should be less and less of an issue. There is more than enough money in the game to lock up studs. What hurts payrolls is overpaying for mediocre free agents.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the service clock/team control stuff should be a consideration, but not a determining factor. It sort of astounds me that so many fans get caught up in it, to the extent that they'll advocate leaving a player sitting in the minors even when they believe he could be making a legitimate impact for the big-league club. In the end it's all just about how much money is spent, and why are we worrying about that so much when the front office itself -- evidently -- is not?

 

Baseball's system is designed to allow teams to keep their homegrown stars, if they'll pony up. I'm confident the Twins will pay what it takes to keep Sano around for a long time if he's good enough.

 

I dont' think service time is nearly the issue here people are making it. Here's the issue. Does Sano have anything else to learn in the minors? If yes, he should stay.

 

I personally am not a fan of skipping AAA for anyone, if for no other reason than that they player will have less to learn once they get up. The jump to MLB is hard enough, and where service time comes into play in my book is wasting it on a player who could have still learned some lessons in the minors.

[Mike Sixel]

Well,if you want to sell tickets next year, you might want to call him up. I do not care about the many. They are rolling in money.

[Jim H]

Good article, Nick. You laid it out very well.

 

I understand not wanting to compare Sano and Hicks, but I would have thought Hicks should of been more ready for the majors than Sano is likely to be. I am not all that passinate about it, I suspect Sano will be to the majors soon enough, and there are some benefits to keeping him in the minors a little longer, beyond the obvious that he probably isn't really quite ready.

 

Sano is going to be the 3B when he gets to the majors, at least until he proves he can't play there, which probably won't happpen. I would think one important thing that could be found out if Sano stays in the minors, is finding out more about Flouffe. If he could prove he is a serviceable 3B(Say, Casey Blake like-his upside I think) he becomes a pretty valuable trading chip, I would think.

 

We all think that Sano, Rosario, Buxton and perhaps a couple others, are going to be pretty darn good. If that turns out to be true, it would be nice to have some solid pieces around them. Plouffe could be one of them or perhaps a means to get one.

 

I really am not too in to the possible service time issues. They could be very important I imagine, but it is so difficult to guess what is going to happen next year, much 5 years down the road. What I do believe is that there is no big gain to be had by rushing prospects to the majors too quickly. I remember the early 80's and late 90's, as good as some of those players got to be, it really wasn't that much fun watching them learn things they should have known before they got to the majors.