Gammons: Morneau placed on waivers

[Brock Beauchamp]

That means they can discuss trades with any team - correct?

 

Yes, now any trade involving Justin would work just like a pre-July 31st trade.

[Linus]

Yes, now any trade involving Justin would work just like a pre-July 31st trade.

 

I believe they can only trade for another player who has cleared waivers or is not on the other team's 40 man roster....

[nicksaviking]

Yes, now any trade involving Justin would work just like a pre-July 31st trade.

 

But now with better stats! Get yours while supplies last!

(always ask your parents permission when ordering online)

[stringer bell]

$3.5M may not buy as much as it used to, but it is still a lot of money.

[AROG]

I don't want to sound like I am always backing up Ryan, but sometimes I feel like I have to just to make him appear to be anything but the worst GM ever. But, It seems like Ryan played his cards right so that no one would claim him. Maybe threatening to just let the other team take him and his money. My other thought is the luck card thrown by badsmurf. A lot of the teams in need of a good bat either at DH or off the bench have teams in front of them that are playing very well.

 

And on the PTBNL, they are very rarely based on production, and I only say very rarely because I don't like absolutes when I don't have all of the facts, but I have never seen any case that it has every been based on quality of play of the other player. Most of the time PTBNL are trades that come down to the wire, either at the trade deadline or the 48 hour waiver clock, and the team getting the PTBNL hasn't had the time to fully scout the players in the lower minors. So, they will agree to the trade for a $ amount or one a a list of players the trading team says they can choose from.

[DJL44]

Teams will have the chance to let the Twins burn off another $500,000+ in salary if they just wait two weeks. The playoff picture should be clearer by then also.

[Kwak]

Bummer! I guess Justin better enjoy these monstrous checks for the rest of the year, it sounds like he will be on a minimal "make-good" contract next year.

 

I think he will continue to be a regular starter through August (they do want to make a trade!), then he will be benched in September in order to give a better look at other players.

[Oxtung]

The Twins should trade Justin and $23 million, the money not spent this year on salaries and the remainder of Morneau's contract, to the Orioles for Dylan Bundy. Let's buy us a Bundy!

[Mr. Brooks]

The Twins should trade Justin and $23 million, the money not spent this year on salaries and the remainder of Morneau's contract, to the Orioles for Dylan Bundy. Let's buy us a Bundy!

 

I know you are being sarcastic, but this trade would never happen. Not only would the O's never consider it, but it would be rejected by MLB.

This type of scenario is exactly why any trade involving cash has to be approved by MLB, to keep teams from simply going out any buying all the best prospects with straight cash homey.

Teams like the Yankees , Dodgers and Red Sox are already at a huge advantage being able to afford any FA they want, think of how bad it would be if they could theoretically go out and "buy" any prospect they wanted as well?

[Shane Wahl]

Pittsburgh should really be the target. They could use him right now.

[mudcat14]

I really see him going to Beantown for one of their pitching prospects. Napoli is trending downward with similar power numbers to Justin, but strikes out a ton! In a perfect world, we eat the salary and get Owens in return. In reality I think there are two or three slightly lower ranked arms in the Bosox system that make a deal worthwhile, with a smaller cash commitment from our end. Hell, I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see us re-sign Morneau in the off-season, even if we deal him now.

[ashbury]

This means no one was willing to take the risk of the Twins simply saying "You can have him and his salary". It's a bit of a catch 22.

 

So here's what I somewhat don't get. 29 teams all said no thanks to simply taking Morneau off the Twins' hands and paying the salary. Now, one team is supposed to step forward and offer a prospect in exchange for... Morneau and his salary?

 

I realize that what has actually just happened was more like brinksmanship among a handful of teams (or just one). Still, it makes me wonder how a post-deadline deal ever comes about. And yet they do, every year.

[nicksaviking]

Usually these deals involve the seller eating a large chunk of money. I don't believe any recent trades have not. At the very least, the non-claim will show Ryan, that just like every other team, the Twins too will have to eat some cash to move their declining veterans.

[diehardtwinsfan]

So here's what I somewhat don't get. 29 teams all said no thanks to simply taking Morneau off the Twins' hands and paying the salary. Now, one team is supposed to step forward and offer a prospect in exchange for... Morneau and his salary?

 

I realize that what has actually just happened was more like brinksmanship among a handful of teams (or just one). Still, it makes me wonder how a post-deadline deal ever comes about. And yet they do, every year.

 

There's a few things that come to mind. There's a ton of strategy. For one, waiver priority does come into play (I think). If you claim a guy, you lose priority. Second, you cannot claim everyone, because if a bunch of teams decide to give you their guy, you are now potentially on the hook for paying their salary and you have to make room for them on the roster. So it isn't cut and dry. Third, you have blocking strategies and those type of things, especially if you know that he won't be given away. If I know the guy isn't free, I might try to block my opponent who really needs him and what not. Fourth, I think (someone needs to correct me if I'm wrong) you'd need to clear roster space if you get him, and I don't think you can claim a guy and then DFA him.

 

Where Morneau comes into play is that his overall line is not terribly impressive for the salary. I'm guessing most GMs might not be aware that he's been hitting like the Morneau of old for the last couple of weeks. I'm sure Ryan will be calling Pittsburg, Boston, and New York saying as much. I do think that the Twins will likely be eating some of his salary, and I'm fine with that (not sure Ryan will).

 

That said, I'd be shocked (but thrilled) if the Twins got a guy like Owings from Boston for Morneau. I suppose technically Boston doesn't need him since they have Bogarts, but I doubt they'd dangle him for Justin, just as I doubt they'd dangle Rayunado, Webster, or Barnes... OK, Barnes maybe given his bad year, but he didn't take well to AA.

[PseudoSABR]

So here's what I somewhat don't get. 29 teams all said no thanks to simply taking Morneau off the Twins' hands and paying the salary.

Teams may have known it wasn't going to be a simple salary dump, and the Twins would just take Morneau back if they didn't get a prospect back they liked.

[stringer bell]

Usually these deals involve the seller eating a large chunk of money. I don't believe any recent trades have not. At the very least, the non-claim will show Ryan, that just like every other team, the Twins too will have to eat some cash to move their declining veterans.

Here's my prediction: With the support of management, Ryan will not trade Morneau unless the acquiring team takes on all of his salary. That is how the Twins roll. I don't like it, but it is not my money. For this reason, I fully expect Justin Morneau to play out the season with the Twins and then leave with no compensation as a free agent.

[Mike Sixel]

Here's my prediction: With the support of management, Ryan will not trade Morneau unless the acquiring team takes on all of his salary. That is how the Twins roll. I don't like it, but it is not my money. For this reason, I fully expect Justin Morneau to play out the season with the Twins and then leave with no compensation as a free agent.

 

If we knew this is why it happened, it would really bum me out about the future of this team....but we will likely never know why it happens the way it happens, however that is.

[ScottyB]

Mornreau for Elvis Andrus who just cleared waivers.

[drjim]

Hypothetically, if the Twins picked up Morneau's contract in full do people actually think he would bring much of a return?

 

I don't. And unless they are 100% committed to parting ways after the season they might as well hang on to him and determine if he is worth keeping arounf.

[Mr. Brooks]

Hypothetically, if the Twins picked up Morneau's contract in full do people actually think he would bring much of a return?

 

I don't. And unless they are 100% committed to parting ways after the season they might as well hang on to him and determine if he is worth keeping arounf.

 

Drew Butera brought back a decent prospect.

If Drew Butera can bring back a decent prospect, just about anyone CAN.

[PseudoSABR]

Hypothetically, if the Twins picked up Morneau's contract in full do people actually think he would bring much of a return?

 

I don't. And unless they are 100% committed to parting ways after the season they might as well hang on to him and determine if he is worth keeping arounf.

I think and hope that the Twins maintain a high price for Morneua or simply keep him. They are betting that some team gets desperate enough, which could certainly happen.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Drew Butera brought back a decent prospect.

If Drew Butera can bring back a decent prospect, just about anyone CAN.

 

Honestly, that's the type of return I expected Morneau to get. One can only hope that b/c Morneau is much better than Butera that he's return a better prospect.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Mornreau for Elvis Andrus who just cleared waivers.

 

Pass. Andrus is worse than Florimon this year and is signed for a loooong time. He's primarily a speed guy, and while he's young, those guys typically don't age well.

[Mr. Brooks]

Pass. Andrus is worse than Florimon this year and is signed for a loooong time. He's primarily a speed guy, and while he's young, those guys typically don't age well.

 

What is your criteria for Andrus being worse than Florimon this year? Andrus has the higher OPS and the higher WAR (based on fangraphs, havent looked at BBR).

 

Andrus is having a down year, but long term he's a much better player than Florimon.

[Kwak]

Drew Butera brought back a decent prospect.

If Drew Butera can bring back a decent prospect, just about anyone CAN.

 

Entirely different cases. Morneau is expensive, and has to be an everyday player to justify making the trade. Everybody has a 1B man and can find a fill-in (like the Twins did with Cuddyer) in a pinch. Butera is cheap--barely above minimum salary. Even better, Butera can be kept in the minors until the Dodgers want to call him up. Butera's situation offers substantially more flexibility than Morneau's. This "prospect" the Twins received? I'm guessing the Dodgers were writing him off anyway. Besides, they don't need bargain-basement pitchers anymore.

[PseudoSABR]

What is your criteria for Andrus being worse than Florimon this year? Andrus has the higher OPS and the higher WAR (based on fangraphs, havent looked at BBR).

 

Andrus is having a down year, but long term he's a much better player than Florimon.

The fact that you can even compare them should tell you enough.

[AROG]

First, diehardtwinsfan, good stuff, but if the GM's for teams that need a player don't know how Morneau is playing, they don't deserve their jobs.

 

Second, the Twins don't have to eat all of the contract or none of it. Teams like businesses run off of budgets and projections for the year. They have a certain amount that they budgeted to spend on players. Since they budgeted all of Morneau's contract, eating all but a million dollars of it and trading him from prospects that makes much less money is going to earn them a profit of a million dollars. (The prospect goes into a different budget)

 

Third, the tricky thing about waiver deals is that you can only trade for players off the 40 man roster or players like Andrus that have cleared waivers. Where the really tricky part comes into play is those prospects being traded for. If I invested $1 million in a signing bonus, more, or close to that amount, I am not going to trade him. I have too much invested to see him come to fruition, now if he is having a down year and I can recuperate some to all of the signing bonus from the new team and I see it as an opportunity to bail on what could pan out to be a bad investment then I jump at it.

 

In closing, don't get your hopes up on Justin. Although TR has shown the ability to trade players in a fire sale, I don't see them getting rid of Morneau unless they get a really good young player. Believe it or not, Justin is still a draw for ticket prices. Especially since his is hot and has cleared waivers. This may be your last shot to see him play etc, etc. If he doesn't go, then they sell tickets for another month that way.

[ScottyB]

Pass. Andrus is worse than Florimon this year and is signed for a loooong time. He's primarily a speed guy, and while he's young, those guys typically don't age well.

 

Obviously I was kidding - the Twinks wouldn't take on a $120M contract.

[Mr. Brooks]

The fact that you can even compare them should tell you enough.

 

What exactly should it tell me? You can compare any two players if you want to.

 

Lets compare them:

 

Andrus: career .272/.338/.345 (.683) OPS+ 82, 34 SB/11 CS per 162, 14.7 career WAR (avg. ~3 WAR/year), 2 all star appearances, 2nd place AL ROY voting at age 20, currently age 24.

 

Florimon: career .217/.275/.322 (.597) OPS+ 65, 13 SB/5 CS per 162, 1.0 career WAR (avg. ~1 WAR/year), currently age 26.

 

You are right, it should not even be a comparison.

The guy is having a down year, it happens. It even happened to the great Joe Mauer.

 

Andrus is a very good player, still young enough to improve. Florimon is barely above replacement level, and will be 27 in December.

[Dman]

I would think they would need a pretty good prospect to trade Morneau because they are so stacked in low A and High A where would they find a place to put a marginal prospect. Also we have guys in short season ball that need to move up next year as well. They need something good or it is pointless to trade anyway.