FanGraphs: Twins Take P2C To New Heights

[old nurse]

Are you saying it wasn't insightful? Because I'd argue that the mass frustration with the front office on this issue was thoughtfully and thoroughly justified by a widely respected baseball publication. It just happens that they do not paint the Twins front office in a positive light and imply it would be difficult to achieve this level of incompetence in this statistical area with out trying to do so.

 

My favorite line:

 

"Deduno flirted with a few strikeouts in 2012 but the Twins seem to have beat that notion right out of him."

 

In almost every other statistical number Deduno is significantly better than last year. Strikeouts are down, but the results are better. Which would you prefer?

[nicksaviking]

In almost every other statistical number Deduno is significantly better than last year. Strikeouts are down, but the results are better. Which would you prefer?

 

I'll take the better performance, however taking the outlier (Deduno) is a pretty convenient way to swing an arguement in your favor. In almost every situtation, pitchers with more strikeouts are better pitchers and pitchers who show a decrease in strikeouts provide worse performances.

 

You don't really think it is only happenstance that the Twins rotation is the worst at striking people out AND among the worst staffs in the league?

[old nurse]

I'll take the better performance, however taking the outlier (Deduno) is a pretty convenient way to swing an arguement in your favor. In almost every situtation, pitchers with more strikeouts are better pitchers and pitchers who show a decrease in strikeouts provide worse performances.

 

You don't really think it is only happenstance that the Twins rotation is the worst at striking people out AND among the worst staffs in the league?

 

Deduno was the only issue I was speaking about.

 

In terms of PTC I remember reading a Powers column one time and Anderson was talking about was what he has meant all along was attack the strike zone. The problem with the Twins is in execution. You can call it pitch to contact, flamethrow, or any other style.If the pitching style was what the pitchers were capable of the Twins pitchers are doa on execution of said style. In clearer terms. ain't none of them going to be confused with Greg Maddux who never struck a lot of people out but he won a lot of hardware..

[diehardtwinsfan]

I honestly wonder whether or not Gibson will be a strikeout guy. I hope you're right.

 

His minor league numbers say he should get a decent margin of them. I get that he isn't doing that this year, but this is also a bit of a learning curve and likely an endurance struggle.

[ThePuck]

His minor league numbers say he should get a decent margin of them. I get that he isn't doing that this year, but this is also a bit of a learning curve and likely an endurance struggle.

 

I believe he averaged less Ks per 9IP in the minors before being promoted than Slowey did before he got promoted. So far, he doesn't seem to have any more than the rest in K ability. I want to be wrong, I hope I'm wrong...I probably am wrong...but it's what I see right now.

[jokin]

Deduno was the only issue I was speaking about.

 

In terms of PTC I remember reading a Powers column one time and Anderson was talking about was what he has meant all along was attack the strike zone. The problem with the Twins is in execution. You can call it pitch to contact, flamethrow, or any other style.If the pitching style was what the pitchers were capable of the Twins pitchers are doa on execution of said style. In clearer terms. ain't none of them going to be confused with Greg Maddux who never struck a lot of people out but he won a lot of hardware..

 

Yup. Maddux was literally, a Control Freak (of nature). In his career, among his peers who pitched while he was active, he ranks 2nd among all SP in WAR (Clemens #1). His K/9 at 6.06 ranks 45th out of the 60 top WAR Starting Pitchers during that period of time. However, his BB/9 of 1.78 is #2 out of the top 60 (interestingly, only Brad Radke ranks higher) and his HR/9 of a minuscule 0.63 ranks him at #1 among SPs. The guy clearly threw the ball where and how he wanted to. Interestingly, Glavine ranks 9th in WAR during that 21 year period, and his K/9 ranks near the bottom of the top 60 SPs at only 5.32, and his control was much worse, his BB/9 is 3.06.

 

I'm not sure what the moral of the story is, but Brad Radke ranks 16th in WAR over this time period and Kevin Tapani ranks 26th in WAR over the same period. Their K/9 rates are 5.39 and 5.89, respectively. The pinpoint control guys were out there in the 90s, and the Twins had 2 of the best. I'm assuming they're still out there today, can anyone explain why the Twins haven't acquired or developed anyone close to what Radke and Tapani brought to the table ever since they left the scene? Albers and Diamond flirt with that style, but so far nothing suggests they will have those types of careers.

 

Major League Leaderboards » 2008 » Pitchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

[Pius Jefferson]

Heard a few comparisons to Scott Baker in terms of Ks per 9ip. Without seeing his A stuff it's hard for me to tell with Gibson. Also what happens if Anderson isn't back next year? The likely rotation is still going to be at or near the bottom in K's but could a good pitching coach get maximum K value?

[LastOnePicked]

Negative response? I saw a HUGE positive in the article: if this were 1948, our pitching staff would be kicking a__. Now, where does Ryan park the team's DeLorean?

[clutterheart]

Yuck

Unfortunately this article made me look at Twins Rankings

- Twins pitchers have the 3rd Highest BBABIP

- And they rank # 17 in GB%.

- They have the 5th worst Standard ERA

 

So Twins Pitchers are not striking guys out, not getting Ground Balls and pleanty of guys are getting on base.

 

Yuck.

 

But here is some good news:

- They are respectable when it comes to HR allowed.

- Twins Defense has the 3rd most double plays - not suprising when you look at the above

- Twins defense has the 4th least errors (I know, I know, bad stat but at this point we take what we can get)

[old nurse]

Yup. Maddux was literally, a Control Freak (of nature). In his career, among his peers who pitched while he was active, he ranks 2nd among all SP in WAR (Clemens #1). His K/9 at 6.06 ranks 45th out of the 60 top WAR Starting Pitchers during that period of time. However, his BB/9 of 1.78 is #2 out of the top 60 (interestingly, only Brad Radke ranks higher) and his HR/9 of a minuscule 0.63 ranks him at #1 among SPs. The guy clearly threw the ball where and how he wanted to. Interestingly, Glavine ranks 9th in WAR during that 21 year period, and his K/9 ranks near the bottom of the top 60 SPs at only 5.32, and his control was much worse, his BB/9 is 3.06.

 

I'm not sure what the moral of the story is, but Brad Radke ranks 16th in WAR over this time period and Kevin Tapani ranks 26th in WAR over the same period. Their K/9 rates are 5.39 and 5.89, respectively. The pinpoint control guys were out there in the 90s, and the Twins had 2 of the best. I'm assuming they're still out there today, can anyone explain why the Twins haven't acquired or developed anyone close to what Radke and Tapani brought to the table ever since they left the scene? Albers and Diamond flirt with that style, but so far nothing suggests they will have those types of careers.

 

Major League Leaderboards » 2008 » Pitchers » Dashboard | FanGraphs Baseball

 

As much as the Twins are fascinated with control pitchers does the statistic bear out that it might be harder to find a great control pitcher than a dominating flamethrower.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Question: how does the Twins low K rate affect our defensive stats? I guess the more advanced ones should be based on zones and difficulty, quality rather than quantity, but I can't help but wonder if the Twins extreme BIP philosophy is exaggerating some of our defensive numbers, just due to the extra chances Twins fielders are getting compared to the rest of the league...

[drjim]

I would think it works both ways. The sheer volume of balls in each defensive zone could result in worse defensive numbers.

 

Someone keeps posting how the Twins are like 28 or 29the in defensive efficiency and have taken a big step back from last year. That doesn't jive well with the eye test.

[ThePuck]

Question: how does the Twins low K rate affect our defensive stats? I guess the more advanced ones should be based on zones and difficulty, quality rather than quantity, but I can't help but wonder if the Twins extreme BIP philosophy is exaggerating some of our defensive numbers, just due to the extra chances Twins fielders are getting compared to the rest of the league...

 

Cumulative stats are always affected by number of chances...so if you're talking about the put-out stat, or the DP stat, or the assist stat, then yeah, having a pitching staff that has so many balls put into play affects those numbers in the positive for defense.

 

I'm not quite sure this is what you were asking though. Defensive efficiency ranking done by baseball prospectus has us as rated very low defensively. 28th, to be up to date. Although our middle IF has gotten better, our OF defense has gotten much, MUCH worse...and of course Plouffe is just plain bad. The eye test tells me that, overall, the team has gotten worse on D...it's just that IF defense stands out more.

[RedBull34]

Cumulative stats are always affected by number of chances...so if you're talking about the put-out stat, or the DP stat, or the assist stat, then yeah, having a pitching staff that has so many balls put into play affects those numbers in the positive for defense.

 

I'm not quite sure this is what you were asking though. Defensive efficiency ranking done by baseball prospectus has us as rated very low defensively. 28th, to be up to date. Although our middle IF has gotten better, our OF defense has gotten much, MUCH worse...and of course Plouffe is just plain bad. The eye test tells me that, overall, the team has gotten worse on D...it's just that IF defense stands out more.

 

To be fair they are only 26th when it's park adjusted.

[ThePuck]

To be fair they are only 26th when it's park adjusted.

 

Good point. Last year, they were 19th when looking at park adjusted.

[Mr. Brooks]

I would think it works both ways. The sheer volume of balls in each defensive zone could result in worse defensive numbers.

 

Someone keeps posting how the Twins are like 28 or 29the in defensive efficiency and have taken a big step back from last year. That doesn't jive well with the eye test.

 

It does if you've watched the corner OF defense and third base.

I've been a huge supporter of Plouffe's in the past, but it's getting harder and harder to be one. He's the Delmon Young of third baseman, just laughably ugly defense.

[TheLeviathan]

Yeah the eye test is pretty bad at everything but C, SS, and 2B.

[Willihammer]

Question: how does the Twins low K rate affect our defensive stats? I guess the more advanced ones should be based on zones and difficulty, quality rather than quantity, but I can't help but wonder if the Twins extreme BIP philosophy is exaggerating some of our defensive numbers, just due to the extra chances Twins fielders are getting compared to the rest of the league...

 

One theory: by allowing so many baserunners, defenders are more preoccupied holding runners on base, and are out of position when balls are pitched, have their momentum moving the wrong way, feet aren't set, whatever.

 

As a check I pulled team pitching BABIPs (the inverse of Defensive Efficiency) for seasons 2011-2013 and correl'ed to team WHIPs. The correlation is .728

 

edit: It occured to me that by failing to turn batted balls into outs directly impacts WHIP, so I ran the BABIP correlation against walk rate instead. That is only .108

[drjim]

Yeah the eye test is pretty bad at everything but C, SS, and 2B.

 

My response would be that 3B and LF are pretty much the same players (and ability) as last year. Hicks was probably a marginal upgrade over Span. RF is obviously a huge downgrade but I can't see how that one downgrade (in perhaps the least consequential position), which should be partially mitigated by improvements up the middle, would drop a team 10 spots.

[old nurse]

My response would be that 3B and LF are pretty much the same players (and ability) as last year. Hicks was probably a marginal upgrade over Span. RF is obviously a huge downgrade but I can't see how that one downgrade (in perhaps the least consequential position), which should be partially mitigated by improvements up the middle, would drop a team 10 spots.

 

did not look at the numbers so this is just a blind stab. If there is not much separating the middle of the pack then rankings shifts could be dramatic to one another regardless of the change in the Twin's numbers. If the numbers are not much different and they are in the middle of the pack improvements on other teams would drop the Twins down. Try looking at the actual difference in the numbers for the teams rather than the rankings.

[TheLeviathan]

My response would be that 3B and LF are pretty much the same players (and ability) as last year. Hicks was probably a marginal upgrade over Span. RF is obviously a huge downgrade but I can't see how that one downgrade (in perhaps the least consequential position), which should be partially mitigated by improvements up the middle, would drop a team 10 spots.

 

I would suggest that maybe Hicks hasn't been as good as some think and that is driving the ranking. BUt I haven't looked at the numbers, just talking eye test.

[drjim]

I would suggest that maybe Hicks hasn't been as good as some think and that is driving the ranking. BUt I haven't looked at the numbers, just talking eye test.

 

I could buy that, but I also think Span was pretty mediocre himself.

[old nurse]

I would suggest that maybe Hicks hasn't been as good as some think and that is driving the ranking. BUt I haven't looked at the numbers, just talking eye test.

 

By UZR, last year Span and Revere were a combined 22+ .This year CF/RF is a negative UZR, with Hicks rating a very negative score. Middle infield is up, but not enough to offset the outfield's score. That is why by the numbers the Twins have a worse defense this year.

[ThePuck]

I would suggest that maybe Hicks hasn't been as good as some think and that is driving the ranking. BUt I haven't looked at the numbers, just talking eye test.

 

Fielding Bible voters had Span as the 3rd best defensive CF in baseball. Fangraphs had him at 3rd as well. That's pretty much how I saw it too.

[TheLeviathan]

By UZR, last year Span and Revere were a combined 22+ .This year CF/RF is a negative UZR, with Hicks rating a very negative score. Middle infield is up, but not enough to offset the outfield's score. That is why by the numbers the Twins have a worse defense this year.

 

Thanks, I'm guessing the key to this then is if you buy Hicks has been as significant a part of the range problem as those numbers indicate. I've been pretty consistent on the idea that Hicks hasn't been as impressive in range as advertised. To me, he has been part of the problem no matter how awesome some of those flashy plays have been.

 

But here is a classic point where opinions can diverge (quite reasonably either way) because defensive metrics are subjective.

[Mike Sixel]

If you read the recent grantland article on the royals......you will see the key for them has been great defense. I have no idea if that was their plan, but it has to be cheaper than having great pitching......

[Mr. Brooks]

If you read the recent grantland article on the royals......you will see the key for them has been great defense. I have no idea if that was their plan, but it has to be cheaper than having great pitching......

 

That's nothing new. The Rays have known the value of great defense for a while now.

[Guest USAFChief]

That's nothing new. The Rays have known the value of great defense for a while now.

I don't think "valuing defense" is new to baseball. Teams have always valued defense, and have always walked the tightrope of "do we play this guy because he's a little better defender but can't hit, or play that guy because he's a little better hitter but can't defend?".

 

What's changed in the past few years is the blogoshpere's worship of defense, which was largely scoffed at just a few years ago. Teams like the Twins, who sometimes chose the defender over the hitter, were laughed at 10 times more than praised.

 

IMO the rise of "defensive metrics" is largely responsible for the average blog/message board voice deciding almost over night to pay attention to defense. Strangely, I doubt many major league teams put much stock in them.

 

What has changed though, is the use of video and objective measurements to better position defenses, an area in which I believe the Twins ARE late to the party.

[Mr. Brooks]

I don't think "valuing defense" is new to baseball. Teams have always valued defense, and have always walked the tightrope of "do we play this guy because he's a little better defender but can't hit, or play that guy because he's a little better hitter but can't defend?".

 

What's changed in the past few years is the blogoshpere's worship of defense, which was largely scoffed at just a few years ago. Teams like the Twins, who sometimes chose the defender over the hitter, were laughed at 10 times more than praised.

 

IMO the rise of "defensive metrics" is largely responsible for the average blog/message board voice deciding almost over night to pay attention to defense. Strangely, I doubt many major league teams put much stock in them.

 

What has changed though, is the use of video and objective measurements to better position defenses, an area in which I believe the Twins ARE late to the party.

 

If you are going to run out the most extreme pitch to contact starting rotation in the modern history of baseball, you have to choose the defender over the hitter more than just "sometimes".

Not only that, but the Twins do not prefer defense, that is a big myth. If they did, they would not have played Delmon over Gomez, they would not have traded Revere for a bag of beans, would not have given Hardy away, would never play Willingham in the field barring an emergency situation, etc., etc., etc. That list could go on and on.

 

The Twins either place very little value on defense, or they have a terrible understanding of what good defense really is.

[Guest USAFChief]

If you are going to run out the most extreme pitch to contact starting rotation in the modern history of baseball, you have to choose the defender over the hitter more than just "sometimes".

Not only that, but the Twins do not prefer defense, that is a big myth. If they did, they would not have played Delmon over Gomez, they would not have traded Revere for a bag of beans, would not have given Hardy away, would never play Willingham in the field barring an emergency situation, etc., etc., etc. That list could go on and on.

 

The Twins either place very little value on defense, or they have a terrible understanding of what good defense really is.

 

While I would agree the Twins may have shifted more toward the "offense over defense" end of the spectrum in recent years, I think that's more due to them not having enough players who do either really well than any conscious decision. I also think corner OF defense is vastly overrated by a lot of fans recently.

 

There's also a minimum level of offense you have to bring to the table if you're going to last in the big leagues. Exactly where that level is can't always be said definitively, but if you can't hit enough, no team will stick with you very long no matter what level of defense you bring to the table. Hitters tend to be harder to find as well..."Shake any tree and a dozen gloves fall out" is as true now as when first spoken.

 

I won't defend the Hardy trade, I hated it from the day it happened and still do. Willingham isn't a good OFer, but acceptable in my book. Revere went because he was limited offensively yet was young and fast enough to return some pitching, which the Twins needed more than Revere. Gomez went for Hardy, which has nothing to do with Delmon, and in any case the Twins did just fine with Delmon in LF.