Jose Abreu defects

[old nurse]

Easy there Chief, some logic only works one way.

 

Once again I have to post this for you. Try reading it and remembering.

Marlins offered Albert Pujols $275 million

[Mike Sixel]

There are clearly exceptions, but let's not lose sight of the question.....If the Twins offered $10MM more than anyone else (for example), will he turn that down? It's not about the edge case, its about the odds......odds are, that if you offer more money, the person will accept it. No guarantee....but increased odds.

[cmathewson]

There are clearly exceptions, but let's not lose sight of the question.....If the Twins offered $10MM more than anyone else (for example), will he turn that down? It's not about the edge case, its about the odds......odds are, that if you offer more money, the person will accept it. No guarantee....but increased odds.

 

This I agree with. But the following is often argued on this site:

 

The Twins did not sign player X

ergo

The Twins offered less money than the team he signed with

 

I take issue with that argument because it's fallacious.

[Mike Sixel]

Fair, CMAT, we just don't know, usually, what was offered.....but I'd bet my salary vs my son's allowance the Twins don't often outbid other teams for expensive FAs.....

[drjim]

I predict he signs with Texas.

[Mike Sixel]

I predict he signs with Texas.

 

That was my first option, before I mistakenly said Cubs.....I think the Yankees are a possibility, if they aren't worried about budget. Imagine if the Marlins did it, and signed Stanton....what would that do to ticket sales?

[Smcginnity]

They should bid a ton for him. Could you imagine an offense of Mauer, Rosario and Buxton (table setting) and then Sano, Abreu and Arcia to drive them in? Good lord! Then just throw in a VERY capable Dozier along with a hopeful Hicks, and any of Pinto/Walker/Kepler/Plouffe. That is a scary offense.

[Spicoli]

A lot of people are defending the Twins by saying they shouldn't be spending money until they are good... Which makes 0 sense. Do you guys think the Twins will just become a good team out of nowhere? Yea we have some good prospects but we cant wait for them to get on the team to start building for a WS run. They should be the final pieces not the starting pieces, that would be too much pressure on them. Twins should be targeting good FAs, make some trades and go after Abreu because they have so much money left to spend and the flexibility. The Twins should be using last years FA and this upcoming FA and trade deadline to be getting some quality players and go after Abreu so we have a solid team when guys like Sano and Buxton come up.

[Mr. Brooks]

Because he's going to have other offers from warmer climate teams who more importantly are contending teams and not in rebuilding mode like the Twins.

 

Global warming must be worse than I thought, because the Cubs and Reds have both made splashes in the Cuban market and last time I checked neither Chicago or Cincinnati were warm weather cities.

[Guest USAFChief]

This is hard for me to understand. The Cubs have the best GM in baseball but had a worse record than the Twins last year and have a worse record than the Twins this year, all the while spending considerably more than the Twins in both years. Since the Twins are not even a good team, let alone the best, the only way I can understand this is if it's intended as sarcasm. Is that your intent?

With all due respect, Cmat, it's hard for me to understand you really want to go down the road of ranking MLB GMs by their respective W/L records over the past 2 seasons.

[Otwins]

Eloy Jimenez was the top international free agent and it was reported on MLB site that he turned down more lucrative offers to sign with the cubs.

[old nurse]

With all due respect, Cmat, it's hard for me to understand you really want to go down the road of ranking MLB GMs by their respective W/L records over the past 2 seasons.

 

It would appear that only two GMs were being compared. The Gm for the Cubs and the GM for the Twins. Epstien took over the Cubs about the same time Ryan came back for the Twins. There are numerous posts on how great all the moves the Cubs have made. All the great free agent signings. In the end for the short term the Cubs are no better off. W/L is a reflection of the talent accumulated gy the GM. Wins are a team statistic.

Adding future talent a criteria? According to Mayo's ranking the Cubs have added 4 top 100, the Twins 3 in the current GM tenure. According to Sickels the Twins farm system was 8, Cubs 11. So how do you want to compare and contrast the work by the FO of each club?

[Thegrin]

Of course the Twins should take a run at a Cuban defector that plays OF/1B/DH. Break the bank for him. Its not as though we don't have any highly rated prospects to fill those positions.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I will make this very simple for you and anyone else to prove: can you please cite past defectors or IFA that have turned down more lucrative deals because of climate or win/loss records? Since so many of you toss this counter-intuitive notion around at nearly every turn....surely this is a host of examples...no?

 

I would just adore hearing them. I mean, how on Earth did Sano sign here? We dupe him about Minnesota? Construct a fake set on Hawaii with a bunch of dudes saying "you betcha!"? Last I checked....we offered the most money.

 

Sarcastic rejoinders don't invalidate my statement. I can just as easily challenge you to prove, and I mean prove and not just assert as a given, that he will go to the highest bidder. And citing the Sano example does not say anything about what Abreu will do. In the language of probability theory, they are independent events, and one can say nothing conclusively about the one by referring to the other.

[notoriousgod71]

That was my first option, before I mistakenly said Cubs.....I think the Yankees are a possibility, if they aren't worried about budget. Imagine if the Marlins did it, and signed Stanton....what would that do to ticket sales?

 

To quote George W. Bush: "Fool me once shame on me. Fool me twice.... shame on me again."

[Guest USAFChief]

W/L is a reflection of the talent accumulated gy the GM. Wins are a team statistic.

Right...I'll ask you the same question...do you really want to start measuring GMs by their W/L records over the past 2 seasons?

 

If so, then it seems rather inconsistent to limit the discussion to just the Cubs and Twins.

 

If not, then why bring it up?

[old nurse]

Right...I'll ask you the same question...do you really want to start measuring GMs by their W/L records over the past 2 seasons?

 

If so, then it seems rather inconsistent to limit the discussion to just the Cubs and Twins.

 

If not, then why bring it up?

 

I think I mentioned that leadership of the Cubs and the Twins turned over at about the same time. That happened to be about two years ago. So it is not inconsistent to compare only the two of them. You might have missed the lovefest going on for how the Cubs do business and the hatefest for Ryan. That it is why it is brought up. Is it fair to judge a GM over a past 2 season record? Read all the Ryan comments and ask yourself are people judging Ryan on the basis of the last 2 years work? That is how long he has been back on the job.

Did you happen to read the Pujhols article yet?

[TheLeviathan]

they are independent events, and one can say nothing conclusively about the one by referring to the other.

 

So then why do you and anyone else assume climate will make a difference? All FAs are then "independent events" that shouldn't be generalized. Yet another argument that invalidates the one you are defending.

 

So, let's summarize: I completely disagree that climate and racial diversity will decide things more than money - someone made that claim and you defended them. My position is irrelevant to the truth of that, we can decide the truth of that later if you'd like.

 

Please show me examples when a player chose warmer weather over more money. Very simple request.

[ThePuck]

I think I mentioned that leadership of the Cubs and the Twins turned over at about the same time. That happened to be about two years ago. So it is not inconsistent to compare only the two of them. You might have missed the lovefest going on for how the Cubs do business and the hatefest for Ryan. That it is why it is brought up. Is it fair to judge a GM over a past 2 season record? Read all the Ryan comments and ask yourself are people judging Ryan on the basis of the last 2 years work? That is how long he has been back on the job.

Did you happen to read the Pujhols article yet?

 

Difference is, Epstein wasn't President and Hoyer wasn't GM of the Cubs for years prior to being re-hired by the Cubs and, therefore, didn't help create the mess they inherited when taking over after the 2011 season. The disaster seasons that were 2011 and 2012 were very much assisted by Ryan in his first term with the team.

 

There's no comparing the two situations

[Major League Ready]

A lot of people are defending the Twins by saying they shouldn't be spending money until they are good... Which makes 0 sense. Do you guys think the Twins will just become a good team out of nowhere? Yea we have some good prospects but we cant wait for them to get on the team to start building for a WS run. They should be the final pieces not the starting pieces, that would be too much pressure on them. Twins should be targeting good FAs, make some trades and go after Abreu because they have so much money left to spend and the flexibility. The Twins should be using last years FA and this upcoming FA and trade deadline to be getting some quality players and go after Abreu so we have a solid team when guys like Sano and Buxton come up.

 

The “don’t spend until we are good” premise gets oversimplified. There is a big difference with International (IE Cespedes) FA acquisitions. Primarily, it does involve contract years where the player is very likely past their prime. The years are also generally shorter and they don’t receive the premium that a proven elite MLB player gets. There is actually a reasonable chance the player is somewhat of a bargain (Darvish)

 

With elite FA pitchers, you have two forms of risk. The first is that they never perform at the expected level. History tells us that risk itself is pretty high. Santana and Zito who’s contracts are ending this year are current examples. The killer with elite players is that the norm has become to extend the contracts year such that the last 2-3 years are likely to be substantially below the level of play that makes them impact players. CC Sabathia appears to be declining substantially and he is under contract through 2017.

 

So, specifically where elite FA starting pitchers are concerned, acquiring a FA SP now very likely results in the best two years of that contract being in years when even with that acquisition the Twins will not be contenders and the final two years when the Twins should contend that SP is likely no longer an impact player.

 

I don’t know enough about Abreu to make a definitive statement but as I said earlier in the thread, this looks like it could be a great fit for the Twins. We could potentially have a freak show line-up if he lives up to the billing. I general I think they have the budget and they should be very aggressive with domestic FA players that can be acquired on contracts of three years or less. 4-5 years for Abreu if the Twins are confident his skills will translate to MLB. On the other hand, I think the absolute dumbest move the Twins could make would be to acquire pitching that requires a contract greater than 3 years. I could see going 4 on Santana or maybe even Hughes because they should be able to perform through the ned of the contract and we will have the budget for the next 4 years.

[AROG]

I saw this article and I thought it would help a little, I say a little because only about 20% of the MLB players answered the survey. It is a survey about a lot of things but one of the questions asked was in reference to which team you would take less money to play for? and only 6.3% of the responses were "none" meaning they would take the highest amount offered to them.

 

Here is the link:

MLB Players Poll: Revealing Results about PEDs, Gay Teammates and more | AthlonSports.com

 

Interesting side note, the next question was about what team you would never play for, and over 30% of the responses were "none, would play for any team" hinting that more likely that 30% of the players would take the most money offered. This is still much less then I anticipated.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I saw this article and I thought it would help a little, I say a little because only about 20% of the MLB players answered the survey. It is a survey about a lot of things but one of the questions asked was in reference to which team you would take less money to play for? and only 6.3% of the responses were "none" meaning they would take the highest amount offered to them.

 

Here is the link:

MLB Players Poll: Revealing Results about PEDs, Gay Teammates and more | AthlonSports.com

 

 

Thanks! I find this interesting. Couldn't help but notice that of the top 8 teams people would take less than the highest offer to play for, 4 are in California (looks like Oakland is left holding the bag), 2 others are in southern climes, and then Red Sox/Yankees, which is self-explanatory.

 

Also find interesting the respect players have for Gardenhire (7th on list of best managers) and Ryan (tied for 2nd with 4 others on list of best GMs).

 

Also liked the question "what player would you take less money to have as a teammate." I hadn't thought of that before.

[AROG]

Thanks! I find this interesting. Couldn't help but notice that of the top 8 teams people would take less than the highest offer to play for, 4 are in California (looks like Oakland is left holding the bag), 2 others are in southern climes, and then Red Sox/Yankees, which is self-explanatory.

 

I really don't think that the climate has too much to do with it. Otherwise we would see Tampa and Miami on there too. Those southern teams are good, and who wouldn't want to go to a contender, ie Red Sox and Yankees as you mentioned. At the time of the survey the Angels hadn't tanked yet. The only team that is on there purely for the location would be the Padres. And honestly, who wouldn't want to live in San Diego?

[TheLeviathan]

Very cool survey but this is like asking corporate execs what they prize most in life. THey will probably say their family or love or spending time at home.....but not money. Then in real life they are never at home and only work for money. So that's cool as an idealist thought experiment, but I can't find any examples of this actually impacting a FA decision.

[BabyJesusBuxton]

Once again I have to post this for you. Try reading it and remembering.

Marlins offered Albert Pujols $275 million

 

The Pujols example for taking less money doesn't really hold water. Miami doesn't offer no trade clauses in their contracts (for reasons obvious from last season's fire sale) and "the machine" made it known he wanted a full no trade clause with whomever he was signing with. So if Miami offers him that same contract with a no trade clause we might not be bringing him up as an outlier from the most money FA hypothesis.

[IdahoPilgrim]

Very cool survey but this is like asking corporate execs what they prize most in life. THey will probably say their family or love or spending time at home.....but not money. Then in real life they are never at home and only work for money. So that's cool as an idealist thought experiment, but I can't find any examples of this actually impacting a FA decision.

 

So, somebody posts something that seems to give you exactly what you said you were looking for...evidence that money is not always the deciding factor...and you find a reason to discount it? Kind of makes it hard to take your posts seriously in the future.

 

And for the record, I happen to know corporate execs who have turned down a promotion or transfer or have retired early for those very reasons (family/love/home). Additionally, I myself resigned a position and took a lower paying one for family reasons.

[snepp]

I wonder what a full trade clause would be worth to a player in dollar form?

 

 

(90% rhetorical, 10% serious)

[IdahoPilgrim]

The Pujols example for taking less money doesn't really hold water. Miami doesn't offer no trade clauses in their contracts (for reasons obvious from last season's fire sale) and "the machine" made it known he wanted a full no trade clause with whomever he was signing with. So if Miami offers him that same contract with a no trade clause we might not be bringing him up as an outlier from the most money FA hypothesis.

 

Actually, I think it proves the point exactly. A no-trade clause was something that was more important to him than highest dollar amount. That's exactly what was asked to be shown.

[Mr. Brooks]

Of course the Twins should take a run at a Cuban defector that plays OF/1B/DH. Break the bank for him. Its not as though we don't have any highly rated prospects to fill those positions.

 

Which highly rated prospects are you referring to?

It sounds like Sano is going to stick at 3B, at least in the short term.

Our top 1B/corner OF/DH prospect is probably Max Kepler, who is a long way away, very raw, and not even a top 100 prospect.

[IdahoPilgrim]

I really don't think that the climate has too much to do with it. Otherwise we would see Tampa and Miami on there too. Those southern teams are good, and who wouldn't want to go to a contender, ie Red Sox and Yankees as you mentioned. At the time of the survey the Angels hadn't tanked yet. The only team that is on there purely for the location would be the Padres. And honestly, who wouldn't want to live in San Diego?

 

Good point - both about San Diego and the value of being seen as a competitive team. I didn't see Houston on that list.