Article: The Miguel Sano Quandry

[Twins Fan From Afar]

I'm gonna pick a few nits here...."Quandry" should be "Quandary" and...

2. Miguel Sano is not dominating AA. Let's not talk about this as if he's tearing the cover off the ball.

Is shortly followed by

In short, this is a great dilemma. Again, Miguel Sano is 20 years old. And tearing the cover off the ball.

I'm confused, is he actually tearing the cover off the ball, or not?

 

As to the gist of the article, I'd make him earn his way up the ladder and wait until next year. The commenters throwing out his first 2 weeks of AA ball are then relying on a very small statistical sample at this level. Sure, he has hit well at the lower levels, but give him a chance to learn how to adjust at the AA level after the opposing coaches and pitchers have familiarized themselves with Sano's hitting tendencies.

 

Thanks for the spelling catch!

The last paragraph of the article was my opinion that Sano is tearing the cover off the ball. The preceding reference was in the reasons not to call him up. A .243 average, to some, would suggest he's not hitting that well.

 

So, it's really up for discussion whether his lower batting average, coupled with good power #s, are good enough.

[Mike Sixel]

Let's not be aggressive, like with Trout or Machado.....let's just wait, and then wait some more, and then wait again.....40 man roster spots? This is one of the 5 worst teams in MLB, and they have bad MiL relievers on the 40 man....there are not roster spot issues.

[E. Andrew]

Nice info.

 

I think one possibly overlooked clue on the call-up is that spring game against the Yankees on ESPN, bringing him on to the team for one night. It seemed like an irregular move for the org, and I think it hints at how much they know that the attention is building. That said, I think they've been level-headed in keeping him at pace with Rosario (or the other way around). It was 'preferential' enough (I thought) to feature him on ESPN. I would hope they'd give Rosario nearly the same treatment they give Sano.

[drjim]

Sept callups are overrated. It would have made minimal difference for Hicks if even that.

 

A promotion for the AAA playoffs could be beneficial in actually playing for something instead of this current death march.

 

A Sano Sept callup would br almost entirely to hold on to some interest and build optimism for next year. If he scuffles badly it would be counterproductive for him and the franchise. I like the suggestion of waiting for a new manager and fresh start.

[drjim]

Let's not be aggressive, like with Trout or Machado.....let's just wait, and then wait some more, and then wait again.....40 man roster spots? This is one of the 5 worst teams in MLB, and they have bad MiL relievers on the 40 man....there are not roster spot issues.

 

Hicks?

[Mike Sixel]

My point is, Anecdotes (sp?) are not proof of anything.....Hicks does not PROVE Sano should stay down, anymore than Trout proves he should not. He should be up just before he's fully ready, imo.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't see any benefit at all to a September call up for Sano.

 

1) He's not dominating AA. He got off to a horrific start and has been hot his last 10 games or so. There's SSS issues on both sides right now, and just promoting him to AAA doesn't make a ton of sense.

 

2) He does not need to be on the 40 man at the end of the year. If he's added this year and opens next year in the minors, one of his options just got wasted.

 

3) He's likely (assuming he hits well in NB the rest of the year) going to open in Rochester. I'm fine with that. No reason to rush him as I think you can argue that he still has things to learn in the minors. Let him prove he's ready before he's added to the 40 man.

[Mike Sixel]

Options? You expect Sano to have to go up and down a lot? Y'all have way different expectations of him than I do.....

 

How would he prove it? Machado proved nothing, in terms of numbers. What would be your success measure?

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

I don't see any benefit at all to a September call up for Sano.

 

1) He's not dominating AA. He got off to a horrific start and has been hot his last 10 games or so.

 

I don't know if he should be promoted or not, but this is incorrect.

 

As Jokin' said earlier in this thread....

 

...if Sano qualified among the Eastern League statistical leaders, his SLG of .559 would lead the League. His OPS of .914 would be 3rd in the League.

 

 

I don't know how that isn't dominating a league.

[drjim]

Options? You expect Sano to have to go up and down a lot? Y'all have way different expectations of him than I do.....

 

How would he prove it? Machado proved nothing, in terms of numbers. What would be your success measure?

 

Sano and Machado are really hard to compare. Different types of players and franchises in much different positions. Baltimore desperately needed a 3b for a playoff push while the Twins are in a position to be patient developmentally.

[SpitefulRabbit617]

Sano needs to be down long enough for next year's Triple A all-star game. THEN call him up:)

[Mike Sixel]

If he's ready, he should come up, I don't care about options, or super 2, or anything. When he's deemed ready, he should be up. I think he's ready next spring.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I don't know if he should be promoted or not, but this is incorrect.

 

As Jokin' said earlier in this thread....

 

...if Sano qualified among the Eastern League statistical leaders, his SLG of .559 would lead the League. His OPS of .914 would be 3rd in the League.

 

 

I don't know how that isn't dominating a league.

 

He's also striking out a ton and hitting below .250. Sorry, that's not domination.

[Linus]

This is just theoretical non-sense. He's not getting called up in September as he doesn't even have to be added to the 40 man roster yet. The Twins need all those spots to help improve this dismal team. Plus, there is no reason to call the guy up until he is ready to contribute at the major league level. As we've seen from Hicks, just because we are all impatient and want to see the kids at the major league level now doesn't mean it is the right thing to do for their development. If he finishes well at AA, start him in Rochester next spring and see how it goes. And yes, service time does matter - he is likely to make big money someday along with several of his teammates. Every year you can have him under team control is valuable and shouldn't be wasted by playing guys who aren't ready, ala Hicks this year.

[Mike Sixel]

So if he's ready in teh spring, don't reward your season ticket holders with his presence? that's your stance.

[drjim]

So if he's ready in teh spring, don't reward your season ticket holders with his presence? that's your stance.

 

Doing things ptimarily to reward season ticket holders is surefire way to get into trouble. They should call him up if he is ready because he is a beast and will help the team win.

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

He's also striking out a ton and hitting below .250. Sorry, that's not domination.

 

Who cares? Those are two really dumb ways to judge a hitter. His OPS is .914. You don't have to think that's dominant but that's dominant.

[jorgenswest]

So if he's ready in teh spring, don't reward your season ticket holders with his presence? that's your stance.

 

There is no way to know if he is ready in the spring. He will not see near enough season ready quality major league pitching in the spring. Spring stats and even September call up stats have absolutely no value for projecting or assessing readiness.

 

You reward your season ticket holders by developing Sano into a very good player over several seasons.

 

As for AA, his strikeout rate has not gone up and has stayed around the 25% level as he has moved up the ladder. That is encouraging. Let's see that trend continue for 10 weeks in AAA next year.

[h2oface]

The less time he spends around Jeff Smith, the better. Why Jeff Smith is even managing at all is a mystery to me.

[jorgenswest]

Who cares? Those are two really dumb ways to judge a hitter. His OPS is .914. You don't have to think that's dominant but that's dominant.

 

It takes a sample of around 500 plate appearances for OPS to become reliable for use in assessing a player. It is dependent on so many other factors. Strike out rate, on the other hand, stabilizes at 150 plate appearances. Sano has 172 plate appearances in AA. His strike out rate has remained at the same level as he has moved up to AA. That is a good sign that we should care about.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Promotion to AAA...

 

The Twins organization should probably keep in mind, when considering a promotion to AAA for Sano & Rosario, that D. Romero and J. Beresford have had a hand in the good season the Red Wings are having. This gets sticky, I would guess.

 

I don't mean that they should block the advancement of superior players, but there is a lot for management to considered.

 

Also, I appreciate the data jokin posted and agree that it is relevant, but I lean more heavily toward Brock's points.

 

AAA has pitchers who are better and smarter, many with MLB experience. Sano should go hang out there before appearing at Target Field.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Who cares? Those are two really dumb ways to judge a hitter. His OPS is .914. You don't have to think that's dominant but that's dominant.

 

No they aren't. Especially when major league pitchers are far more proficient in putting pitchers where hitters cannot hit them. As I said in my first post, he was very cold when he first got there and has been pretty hot for about 2 weeks. SSS could be affecting both sides. He needs more time in AA. No reason to give him a call up.

[CharacterGroove]

I think there's a decent argument to be had between s promotion to MLB vs. AAA in September. I fall on the aggressive side, and and say go big. It doesn't determine next April, and the team better not be preoccupied with counting options with an elite prospect.

 

Which leads me to Hicks. I wish people would stop comparing Sano (or Buxton for that matter) to Hicks. Hicks' MLB career is not a warning sign for other MiLB prospects, Hicks' MiLB career was a warning sign for Hicks' MLB career.

[Twins Fan From Afar]

This is just theoretical non-sense. He's not getting called up in September as he doesn't even have to be added to the 40 man roster yet. The Twins need all those spots to help improve this dismal team. Plus, there is no reason to call the guy up until he is ready to contribute at the major league level. As we've seen from Hicks, just because we are all impatient and want to see the kids at the major league level now doesn't mean it is the right thing to do for their development. If he finishes well at AA, start him in Rochester next spring and see how it goes. And yes, service time does matter - he is likely to make big money someday along with several of his teammates. Every year you can have him under team control is valuable and shouldn't be wasted by playing guys who aren't ready, ala Hicks this year.

 

I'm not so sure this is "theoretical nonsense." And I'm pretty sure that if August becomes September, if Sano has increased the batting average somewhat, played solid defense, and put up solid power #s, the Twins' front office will be having these same discussions. In fact these conversations are probably taking place now.

 

It's theoretical in the sense that things need to happen in order for Sano to deserve a promotion. But about 2/3 of the posts on this website are about hypothetical scenarios. I guess that's the product of your team losing 90+ games for 3 seasons.

[Linus]

I'm not so sure this is "theoretical nonsense." And I'm pretty sure that if August becomes September, if Sano has increased the batting average somewhat, played solid defense, and put up solid power #s, the Twins' front office will be having these same discussions. In fact these conversations are probably taking place now.

 

It's theoretical in the sense that things need to happen in order for Sano to deserve a promotion. But about 2/3 of the posts on this website are about hypothetical scenarios. I guess that's the product of your team losing 90+ games for 3 seasons.

 

It's theoretical non-sense in that there is zero chance he gets called up in September. They are not going to add him to the 40 man when it is not necessary, nor should they unless he is ready to be a productive MLB player. Terry Ryan has already stated this on his radio program. Its simply not happening.

[Linus]

I think there's a decent argument to be had between s promotion to MLB vs. AAA in September. I fall on the aggressive side, and and say go big. It doesn't determine next April, and the team better not be preoccupied with counting options with an elite prospect.

 

Which leads me to Hicks. I wish people would stop comparing Sano (or Buxton for that matter) to Hicks. Hicks' MLB career is not a warning sign for other MiLB prospects, Hicks' MiLB career was a warning sign for Hicks' MLB career.

 

Nobody is comparing Hicks and Sano as prospects. Its apples and oranges in ability and in age. The point is that bringing somebody to the majors when they are not ready is not good for their development, regardless of how you rate them as a prospect. Sano is not ready; hopefully he will be sometime next year or so which will be an extremely fast track for him to the majors.

[troyhobbs]

He may not be ready but the arguments that a Sept call up would hurt his development are hard to understand. If he doesn't get called up his season is done, if he is called up he gets to play baseball every day surrounded by big league coaching and players. I would imagine that is good for development.

[twinsnorth49]

I just don't get this hurting development argument, the guy is not going to be fundamentally damaged even if he sucks wind in September, c'mon. If that's the worry then I guess Hicks is completely screwed after 2/3rds a season of suckitude.

 

Besides, I'm coming for games on September, I want to see the big fella, throw us a bone.

[Linus]

He may not be ready but the arguments that a Sept call up would hurt his development are hard to understand. If he doesn't get called up his season is done, if he is called up he gets to play baseball every day surrounded by big league coaching and players. I would imagine that is good for development.

 

Its not just about him. The 40 man roster spot is a big deal when you need to patch many holes. Besides, he can go to the Arizona Fall League or winter ball if he needs more playing time.

[troyhobbs]

Its not just about him. The 40 man roster spot is a big deal when you need to patch many holes. Besides, he can go to the Arizona Fall League or winter ball if he needs more playing time.

 

Why is the 40 man spot a big deal? If there's one thing this roster has it's players that are expendable. Anyway, I realize he's not going to get called up, I'd just really like it if he did so there was a reason to watch baseball this fall.