26 year old Cuban SS Alexander Guerrero

[cmb0252]

We agree on many things but this is a terrible analysis. I don't care if Guerrero can't stick at SS. If he is a legit MLB player then this would be a great move. I wouldn't care if the Twins signed a Cuban OF'er (Alvarez). This team needs to add talent to the roster and worry about where to play them later. If Rosario truly ended up blocked by Guerrero then he would be a very attractive trade piece that could net the Twins a decent pitcher. And the scouting reports only say that he probably won't stick at SS. The same scouting reports said that Rosario and Sano might not stick at 2B/3B.

 

While you are right scouts have been wrong on where players end up, what else do we have to go by? I haven't seen Guerrero play. Heck, even if I saw how he played I wouldn't know what I was looking for. I can only go by what the international experts say. The two guys who are considered the best at scouting international players, Ben Badler and Jesse Sanchez, both have said he doesn't have the tools for SS and will end up at 2B. Wanting him to play SS doesn't increase his chances of playing the position.

 

Now to your other point. If Guerrero can play a different position at a MLB level I would welcome the addition. The team needs talent. I just don't like what I have read. He sad out all of 2012 and won't be cleared to play till 2014. That's two years off, especially when you are moving to an even more competitive league, is a really long time.

 

I'm all for the Twins adding talent anyway they can but can a person just not like a player? Seeing only 3 teams out of 30 are in on him I'm not the only person out there that doesn't like what I have seen.

[ThePuck]

This whole idea about how big contracts now will adversely affect our ability to keep out supposed future studs is comical.

 

These mega contracts that some just assume our prospects coming up are going to be deserving of won't be needed till so far down the road it's a non-factor in spending now...so we need to stop saying we need to not give out longer contracts for that reason...especially with where our payroll sits now and where it will sit after next year and the year after when lots of money coming off the books.

 

I mean, seriously, most of the guys we're projecting to deserve big contracts won't even be 1st year arbitration eligible till 2017 at the very earliest, many farther down the road than that. This is 2013. Not only that, Mauer's contract ends 2018 as well.

[nicksaviking]

I don't disagree. But since I know so little about this player, I can hardly blame the Twins if they aren't going to spend on him. Likewise, I'd rather them invest in expensive FAs when they are closer to competitiveness (and have a better idea of their true needs, though I agree assets are assets), in spite of however low payroll is now.

 

Ideally I would too, but the closer they get, the closer any possible mega-extension for Buxton or Sano comes into play. If they are going to get a nice free agent upgrade who requires an uncomfortable amount of years (read: pitcher or SS on a 4-5 year deal) they likely need to do it before they are sure they are able to compete. Alas next year's free agent pitching class looks to have no one deserving of that kind of deal save Matt Garza. I'd take a chance on a SS then.

[nicksaviking]

Wanting him to play SS doesn't increase his chances of playing the position.

 

Sure it does. See Asdrubal Cabrera and Jed Lowrie. It all depends on what a team is willing to field in exchange for offense at the position. It's not black and white; what one team requires from a SS isn't what every team does. There is no standard template that every player at a position is required to follow.

[DaveW]

This whole idea about how big contracts now will adversely affect our ability to keep out supposed future studs is comical.

 

These mega contracts that some just assume our prospects coming up are going to be deserving of won't be needed till so far down the road it's a non-factor in spending now...so we need to stop saying we need to not give out longer contracts for that reason...especially with where our payroll sits now and where it will sit after next year and the year after when lots of money coming off the books.

 

I mean, seriously, most of the guys we're projecting to deserve big contracts won't even be 1st year arbitration eligible till 2017 at the very earliest, many farther down the road than that. This is 2013. Not only that, Mauer's contract ends 2018 as well.

 

You shouldn't just sign mega contracts just because you can currently afford to do it, look how well it has worked for the Yankees (Tex, A-rod), Phillies and the Angels (Pujols, Hamilton, Wells etc)

 

Also it goes beyond the whole "sano and buxtons first big deal" it goes to the next 4-5 years where the Twins would be better off if they weren't hamstrung by additional huge deals. (Unless it really makes sense)

[kab21]

While you are right scouts have been wrong on where players end up, what else do we have to go by? I haven't seen Guerrero play. Heck, even if I saw how he played I wouldn't know what I was looking for. I can only go by what the international experts say. The two guys who are considered the best at scouting international players, Ben Badler and Jesse Sanchez, both have said he doesn't have the tools for SS and will end up at 2B. Wanting him to play SS doesn't increase his chances of playing the position.

 

Now to your other point. If Guerrero can play a different position at a MLB level I would welcome the addition. The team needs talent. I just don't like what I have read. He sad out all of 2012 and won't be cleared to play till 2014. That's two years off, especially when you are moving to an even more competitive league, is a really long time.

 

I'm all for the Twins adding talent anyway they can but can a person just not like a player? Seeing only 3 teams out of 30 are in on him I'm not the only person out there that doesn't like what I have seen.

 

Your arguments so far in this thread:

 

A) If he can't play short then I don't want to block Rosario

 

We got burned by Nishi so maybe the Twins shouldn't pursue high dollar int'l FA's.

 

C) He will be 26/27 and sat out 2 years. This is pretty standard for Cuban FA's. It sounds like you would argue against using an entire avenue of player acquisition to make the team better.

 

D) 27 teams aren't rumored to be in the mix so there must be something wrong with him. This is actually pretty common in Cuban and even normal FA. Only one team was in on Puig and the rest of the baseball world (FO's and writers) thought the Dodgers were completely crazy signing him for 40+M.

 

Obviously the Twins will have to scout him and they will have significantly better resources than any of us but the fact that they are interested has me interested.

[ThePuck]

You shouldn't just sign mega contracts just because you can currently afford to do it, look how well it has worked for the Yankees (Tex, A-rod), Phillies and the Angels (Pujols, Hamilton, Wells etc)

 

Also it goes beyond the whole "sano and buxtons first big deal" it goes to the next 4-5 years where the Twins would be better off if they weren't hamstrung by additional huge deals. (Unless it really makes sense)

 

You point out the ones that don't work out and ignore the ones that do work out...

 

And I never said sign guys to long contracts just because you can afford to...so that counter makes no sense.

 

And you say the next 4-5 years, during which time more payroll comes off the books being replaced by pre-arbitration guys? 27M off the books going into next season, 10M or so after 2014. How low does payroll have to be before you say, Hmm, maybe signing a true quality player or two to a long term contract won't 'hamstring' us? Do we have to get to 30M a season?

[Mike Sixel]

The Yankees won a lot of games the first mega deals....but again, no one is arguing "spend on random guys, just to spend money". No one is arguing "spend like the Yankees". We are suggesting that having a payroll smaller than in the dome is not likely to lead to much success, especially if more than 1/3 is on one player.

[kab21]

The Yankees won a lot of games the first mega deals....but again, no one is arguing "spend on random guys, just to spend money". No one is arguing "spend like the Yankees". We are suggesting that having a payroll smaller than in the dome is not likely to lead to much success, especially if more than 1/3 is on one player.

 

Some guys take this don't spend on a rebuilding team bit too far but most simply don't want to be committing 12-16M/yr for 4-5 yrs on guys that probably will be below average by the end of their contracts. Edwin Jackson I'm talking about you. Buehrle don't act like I can't see you.

 

Guerrero is rumored to be available for less and he is in his prime right now. if the Twins like this guy then lets spend some money.

[PseudoSABR]

Ideally I would too, but the closer they get, the closer any possible mega-extension for Buxton or Sano comes into play. If they are going to get a nice free agent upgrade who requires an uncomfortable amount of years (read: pitcher or SS on a 4-5 year deal) they likely need to do it before they are sure they are able to compete. Alas next year's free agent pitching class looks to have no one deserving of that kind of deal save Matt Garza. I'd take a chance on a SS then.

Right. I'll be watching closely to see if the Twins actually start investing this offseason. We can't simply assume players will be available in free agency when it suits us best. Given that our premium talent is now in the upper minors, the team shoudl start taking some heavier finacial risks in free agency.

 

Last offseason, the prospects seemed much further away than they actually are, so in hindsight, nabbing Grienke/Sanchez (as impossible as it probably would have been) wouldn't have been the financial albatross I anticipated.

[DaveW]

You point out the ones that don't work out and ignore the ones that do work out...

 

And I never said sign guys to long contracts just because you can afford to...so that counter makes no sense.

 

And you say the next 4-5 years, during which time more payroll comes off the books being replaced by pre-arbitration guys? 27M off the books going into next season, 10M or so after 2014. How low does payroll have to be before you say, Hmm, maybe signing a true quality player or two to a long term contract won't 'hamstring' us? Do we have to get to 30M a season?

Which ones do work out? Lets look at the top 10 or so.

A-Rod- No

Vernon Wells- No

Johan Santana- No

Mark Texiera- No (even without the injury he hasnt produced)

CC Sabathia- Yes (has been worth it for sure)

Joe Mauer- Yes

Prince Fielder- Yes

Adrian Gonzalez- I'm going to say no, because of his regression.

Cliff Lee- Yes

Miggy- Yes

Roy Halladay- No

Verlander- Yes

Crawford- No

Ryan Howard- no

King Felix- Yes

Zito-lol, no

Carlos Lee- No

Zamrano- No

Soriano- No

(12 bad contracts, 7 "good" contracts)

I am all about signing Guerrero as long as we don't go completely overboard. But the point remains, the best way IMHO to create a contender is to surround the Sanos,Buxton's etc with good supporting players and not just throwing 100+ mil to multiple Free Agents

[Rick Blaine]

I Maybe Willingham is healthy two years in a row.

 

 

Does any one knowWillingham's status? Is he done for the year or will we see him playing again this year?

[ThePuck]

Does any one knowWillingham's status? Is he done for the year or will we see him playing again this year?

 

should be back Friday

[ThePuck]

Which ones do work out? Lets look at the top 10 or so.

A-Rod- No

Vernon Wells- No

Johan Santana- No

Mark Texiera- No (even without the injury he hasnt produced)

CC Sabathia- Yes (has been worth it for sure)

Joe Mauer- Yes

Prince Fielder- Yes

Adrian Gonzalez- I'm going to say no, because of his regression.

Cliff Lee- Yes

Miggy- Yes

Roy Halladay- No

Verlander- Yes

Crawford- No

Ryan Howard- no

King Felix- Yes

Zito-lol, no

Carlos Lee- No

Zamrano- No

Soriano- No

(12 bad contracts, 7 "good" contracts)

I am all about signing Guerrero as long as we don't go completely overboard. But the point remains, the best way IMHO to create a contender is to surround the Sanos,Buxton's etc with good supporting players and not just throwing 100+ mil to multiple Free Agents

 

Again, nobody is arguing that it isn't the BEST way, the argument is that all ways need to be utilized. You can't throw out an avenue to improve because you're scared it may not work out. It's the cost of doing business...some just don't work out.

 

And no one is suggesting throwing 100M contract at multiple free agents...I'm sure not.

[drjim]

Again, nobody is arguing that it isn't the BEST way, the argument is that all ways need to be utilized. You can't throw out an avenue to improve because you're scared it may not work out. It's the cost of doing business...some just don't work out.

 

And no one is suggesting throwing 100M contract at multiple free agents...I'm sure not.

 

I don't think anyone is against signing free agents that produce close to their contracts.

 

I'm sure you are aware of recent free agent classes. I'm convinced you are criticizing the Twins for not signing players that don't actually exist.

 

Theoretically sure, the Twins should have guaranteed more than the $50 mil they did over the past two years but there are problems with players that were actually available and how they fit on a rebuilding roster.

[DaveW]

I don't think anyone is against signing free agents that produce close to their contracts.

 

I'm sure you are aware of recent free agent classes. I'm convinced you are criticizing the Twins for not signing players that don't actually exist.

 

Theoretically sure, the Twins should have guaranteed more than the $50 mil they did over the past two years but there are problems with players that were actually available and how they fit on a rebuilding roster.

Yup, the only one it would have been prudent to sign was Sanchez, and honestly, I doubt he comes to the Twins unless they beat Detroit's offer significantly, which would have at that point been in the "danger" category (over 80 mil over 5 years)

 

I still like the FA market this off-season for the Twins, you have some nice arms you can get without spending 100mm each on: See: Josh Johnson, Phil Hughes, Tim Lincecum, Kuroda (doubtful), Ervin Santana, AJ Burnett, Matt Garza (won't happen)

 

Of course none of those guys are "100% legit ace's" but if you can get 2 of them or so for a combined 25 mil or less per season it could go a long ways to fixing this rotation.

 

Potential mid 2014 rotation of:

1.Josh Johnson

2.Phil Hughes/Ervin Santana

3. Alex Meyer

4. Kyle Gibson

5. Sam DeDuno

(plus- Pelfrey,Correia,Hendriks etc) in the wings.

Could be pretty decent for 2014/2015.

[Major League Ready]

Which ones do work out? Lets look at the top 10 or so.

A-Rod- No

Vernon Wells- No

Johan Santana- No

Mark Texiera- No (even without the injury he hasnt produced)

CC Sabathia- Yes (has been worth it for sure)

Joe Mauer- Yes

Prince Fielder- Yes

Adrian Gonzalez- I'm going to say no, because of his regression.

Cliff Lee- Yes

Miggy- Yes

Roy Halladay- No

Verlander- Yes

Crawford- No

Ryan Howard- no

King Felix- Yes

Zito-lol, no

Carlos Lee- No

Zamrano- No

Soriano- No

(12 bad contracts, 7 "good" contracts)

I am all about signing Guerrero as long as we don't go completely overboard. But the point remains, the best way IMHO to create a contender is to surround the Sanos,Buxton's etc with good supporting players and not just throwing 100+ mil to multiple Free Agents

 

We can't really judge until these contracts have run through completion. Sabathia is signed through 2017 and he looks to be declining substantially. Maybe he is hurt but he has had several bad starts in a row, including against the Twins.

 

We will have to wait and see on Fielder. That body type does not inspire confidence in terms of continuing to perform as he ages.

 

At least the high profile international guys don't entail contracts that take them past their prime. At least we can avoid that specific risk. I would guess Billy Beane's logic with Cespedes was that he was entering his prime and it only required 4 yr/$36M. I think this is the type of deal that makes sense for the Twins.

 

Having said all this I do side with those who say we can do more with Morneau and Blackburn coming off the books and additional TV revenue. Someone like Ryan Dempster made sense to me this last off-season but he is 6-8 with an ERA of 4.54 which for all practical purposes is no different than Correia. The only think I am sure of is that any free agent strategy has a high probability of failure. I like the odds a little better with the international FAs for reasons previously stated. The only thing that I am sure of is that we need to get better at identifying and developing SPs and we need to sell high on occcasion.

[Major League Ready]

Again, nobody is arguing that it isn't the BEST way, the argument is that all ways need to be utilized. You can't throw out an avenue to improve because you're scared it may not work out. It's the cost of doing business...some just don't work out.

 

And no one is suggesting throwing 100M contract at multiple free agents...I'm sure not.

 

What specifically would you have had them do last year? I really am not trying to be combative. I just don't think there were reasonable options. Therefore, how can you criticize the effort on FAs? I wanted Dempster and either Marcum or Saunders. Marcum has been really bad, Saunders and Dempster have nearly identical ERAs that are just a little higher than Correia. At least Pelfrey will be gone next year and they can try again.

[ThePuck]

I'm convinced you are criticizing the Twins for not signing players that don't actually exist.

 

 

actually, I'm pretty sure I'm just talking about plans of action moving forward and nothing at all to do with what they did or didn't do.

 

BTW, you wrote: 'I don't think anyone is against signing free agents that produce close to their contracts.'

 

BIG problem with that statement...You'd need to have a crystal ball to know if a FA you sign will produce close to their contract. So yeah...again...can't be scared to dive in just cause you think you might end up spending a bit more than what they end up being worth

[ThePuck]

What specifically would you have had them do last year? I really am not trying to be combative. I just don't think there were reasonable options. Therefore, how can you criticize the effort on FAs? I wanted Dempster and either Marcum or Saunders. Marcum has been really bad, Saunders and Dempster have nearly identical ERAs that are just a little higher than Correia. At least Pelfrey will be gone next year and they can try again.

 

Was there something in my post bashing what was done in the past? That's over and done with. All I'm talking about now is, going forward, utilizing all avenues available to create a team. Some people seem to want to completely rule out getting true quality players in FA.

[DaveW]

We can't really judge until these contracts have run through completion. Sabathia is signed through 2017 and he looks to be declining substantially. Maybe he is hurt but he has had several bad starts in a row, including against the Twins.

 

We will have to wait and see on Fielder. That body type does not inspire confidence in terms of continuing to perform as he ages.

 

At least the high profile international guys don't entail contracts that take them past their prime. At least we can avoid that specific risk. I would guess Billy Beane's logic with Cespedes was that he was entering his prime and it only required 4 yr/$36M. I think this is the type of deal that makes sense for the Twins.

 

Having said all this I do side with those who say we can do more with Morneau and Blackburn coming off the books and additional TV revenue. Someone like Ryan Dempster made sense to me this last off-season but he is 6-8 with an ERA of 4.54 which for all practical purposes is no different than Correia. The only think I am sure of is that any free agent strategy has a high probability of failure. I like the odds a little better with the international FAs for reasons previously stated. The only thing that I am sure of is that we need to get better at identifying and developing SPs and we need to sell high on occcasion.

 

Yeah I think Fielder ultimately ends up being a bad signing.. i didn't even include Pujols and Hamilton, which both surely will be looked upon as huge mistakes.

 

It will be interesting when Miggy hits the FA market in a couple years, he will almost certainly demand more than what Pujols got, will Detroit be able to afford that with all of their other huge deals?

[bird]

Wow. We get 80 comments in to a piece about a 26 year-old player who, by virtually every scouting report is NOT a MLB-calibre SS, and who may or may not have a higher ceiling than Rosario and Polanco.

 

So let me get this straight. His price tag is around $26M? And we absolutely NEED to go outside the system for a SS, but not a 2B.

 

 

I'm not gonna rip them for passing on this guy, if that happens. I'm gonna rip them if they don't take a serious crack at finding a high-ceiling SS prospect or two. I don't care if it comes from the draft, the international market, a trade, free agency, or Cuba. But they need to find someone much better than Florimon by the start of 2016, when they're back in contending mode.

 

Trea Turner would work.

[Major League Ready]

No, my bad, I was asking you when I was really generalizing. It is sometimes hard to convey that type of subtelty in this medium. And, I don't think that others rules out free agency but they are pointing out that some posters bash the FO for not signing players that don't really exist. There other disconnect is that the best free agents get 5-6 years and the timing does not make sense right now and perhaps never. We have two stellar operating models to follow in the Rays and As. If we did things as well as those two organizations with a payroll budget that is roughly an incremental $50M, we would be in great shape.

[ThePuck]

No, my bad, I was asking you when I was really generalizing. It is sometimes hard to convey that type of subtelty in this medium. And, I don't think that others rules out free agency but they are pointing out that some posters bash the FO for not signing players that don't really exist. There other disconnect is that the best free agents get 5-6 years and the timing does not make sense right now and perhaps never. We have two stellar operating models to follow in the Rays and As. If we did things as well as those two organizations with a payroll budget that is roughly an incremental $50M, we would be in great shape.

 

Probably be better to follow the Cardinals model rather than the Rays and As. Not that there's anything wrong with the way the Rays and As do things, but they are seriously small market. No reason, at all, to have to work our model around having a 50M payroll.

[nicksaviking]

We have two stellar operating models to follow in the Rays and As. If we did things as well as those two organizations with a payroll budget that is roughly an incremental $50M, we would be in great shape.

 

But as already covered, the only part of that model they follow is the low payroll part. They do not embrace Sabrmetrics, utilize new school or inovative baseball decisions or identify and develop top of the rotation arms that can both anchor a rotation and be used as trade bait to restock the system.

 

But really, if you have the payroll flexibility (which the Twins do) why would you want to continue to willingly lose pitchers the way the A's and Rays do? It's doubtful the A's would have traded Gio Gonzalez had they been able to sign him long-term. So in fact the A's/Rays model is a desperate attempt to maximize talent based on a dire financial situation, it's doubtful they would opperate under these circumstances if they could be avoided. If they had increased payroll due to new stadiums/new cities, we would probably compare them them to St. Louis, which is what we are asking the Twins to copy.

[TwinsFanInPhilly]

But as already covered, the only part of that model they follow is the low payroll part. They do not embrace Sabrmetrics, utilize new school or inovative baseball decisions or identify and develop top of the rotation arms that can both anchor a rotation and be used as trade bait to restock the system.

 

But really, if you have the payroll flexibility (which the Twins do) why would you want to continue to willingly lose pitchers the way the A's and Rays do? It's doubtful the A's would have traded Gio Gonzalez had they been able to sign him long-term. So in fact the A's/Rays model is a desperate attempt to maximize talent based on a dire financial situation, it's doubtful they would opperate under these circumstances if they could be avoided. If they had increased payroll due to new stadiums/new cities, we would probably compare them them to St. Louis, which is what we are asking the Twins to copy.

 

Can you give an example of what you mean with this?

[Jeremy Nygaard]

As I started to read this thread from where I left off, I realized there was a lot of fluff... so forgive me if I'm rehashing anything.

 

Here's video of Guerrero:

 

[video=youtube;QpnTQPgxrYc]

 

About Cubans in general, Cespedes and Puig have significantly raised the expectation bar when it comes to Cuban imports.

 

Guerrero and Alvarez (mentioned earlier) aren't in the same class. I know the Twins watched Alvarez, who signed with the Orioles, and before he signed I basically heard that Alvarez wouldn't get much money and if he did, it would be thanks to the other guys.

 

I'm not going to take too much from what's behind BA's pay wall, but I think these are the most important lines from the whole report:

 

One thing Guerrero has going for him is that some scouts think he can stay in the middle of the infield, although shortstop is probably out of the question.Several teams aren’t convinced he has the ability to either reach the majors or stick there as an everyday player.

 

Regardless, it sounds like the Dodgers would like to have Guerrero in their lineup at 2B for the month of September and are willing to pony up for him.

 

I've said I'm not a fan of the Twins signing him. I think he'll be a bust. I also laughed at the ridiculous amount of money the Dodgers threw at Yasiel Puig, so maybe I have Guerrero all wrong too.

[DaveW]

Wow. We get 80 comments in to a piece about a 26 year-old player who, by virtually every scouting report is NOT a MLB-calibre SS, and who may or may not have a higher ceiling than Rosario and Polanco.

 

So let me get this straight. His price tag is around $26M? And we absolutely NEED to go outside the system for a SS, but not a 2B.

 

 

I'm not gonna rip them for passing on this guy, if that happens. I'm gonna rip them if they don't take a serious crack at finding a high-ceiling SS prospect or two. I don't care if it comes from the draft, the international market, a trade, free agency, or Cuba. But they need to find someone much better than Florimon by the start of 2016, when they're back in contending mode.

 

Trea Turner would work.

Florimon is going to end up a 3 WAR player this year, his bat leaves some to be desired, but by a quick glance it appears he is getting unlucky with his BABIP, if he can somehow get to .670 OPS or so along (12-15HR/10-15 SB) with his defense I think he is a perfectly fine SS for at least the next 2-3 years.

 

I don't think the Twins should NOT look for a SS in the meantime, I just wouldn't break the bank or do something stupid out of desperation to bring another one in. According to fangraphs he has the third best defense of ALL SS in baseball.

[big dog]

I don't think the Twins should NOT look for a SS in the meantime, I just wouldn't break the bank or do something stupid out of desperation to bring another one in. According to fangraphs he has the third best defense of ALL SS in baseball.

 

If they can get someone who is definitely an improvement on Florimon, spend the money.

 

If they can't do that (and even if they can), they need to get a couple of starting pitchers, then go out and find another starting pitchers. And none of this bargain basement stuff. Quality >>>quantity. Quality + Quantity >>>>>>>> Quantity.

[Major League Ready]

Probably be better to follow the Cardinals model rather than the Rays and As. Not that there's anything wrong with the way the Rays and As do things, but they are seriously small market. No reason, at all, to have to work our model around having a 50M payroll.

 

Good point. Perhaps the best practices among the three should be the goal.