Draft prospects

[shawntheroad]

And yet Mauer became one of the top players in baseball. Projection is a big part of scouting/development. It is what it is and the Twins don't seem concerned about taking high school kids. In the last 15 drafts, they've used their first pick on a high school position player 9 times - six made the majors (Cuddy, Mauer, Span, Revere, Parmelee and Plouffe), two washed out (Moses and Garbe) and one is still in the system (Hicks).

Moses washed out but i think it was somewhat due to a heart? condition. Hard to blame Twins there if not pre-existing.

[twinkiesfan11]

Moses washed out but i think it was somewhat due to a heart? condition. Hard to blame Twins there if not pre-existing.

I think I remember hearing that about Moses too, not sure if that was what forced him out of the game but I remember he had it. Didn't Garbe have night blindness or something crazy like that?

[jtrinaldi]

Another thing you have to consider is when the Twins actually have a realistic chance of competing again. What I mean by that is how advanced are the top prospects, and when is the likely ETA. This is a similar situation to the Brewers when the produced Hart,Braun,Fielder,Weeks. Those guys came up within 3 years of eachother, and then were able to compete at a high level. The Twins have Parmelee and Henriks up right now, if they can contirbute decently now, then the rebuilding process could be anchored by those 2 in the future. Hicks is likely to be up in late 2013/start of 2014 with Salcedo likely a year or 2 behind him, followed by Sano and Rosario likely in 2015. If the Twins draft Appel he likely would arrive in the Majors in 2014 as a starter. IF the Twins draft Buxton and put him on the "Hicks,Boyd,Harrison Route" he would play 2012 in EX.ST followed by instructs. IN 2013 he would spend a full year in low A ball. In 2014 He would spend a FULL year in A+ ball, in 2015 he would reach AA likely for the full year. Then if he spends half a year in AAA ball and dominates his ETA would be 2016 All star break. The thing that makes this pick interesting is that Appel is that Appel is essentially 3 years above Buxton, and he is obviously more polished. He would likely start his first full year in AA.

 

If the Twins draft Buxton here is what the development to the majors would look like.

2013: Hicks reaches majors sometime in middle of year.

2014: Salcedo,Arcia reaches Majors

2015: Rosario/Sano reach majors.

2016: Boyd/Harrison/Goodrum

2017: Buxton reaches majors.

This is a rough example of how much longer it would take for the Twins to see Buxton produce in the majors if they take him over Appel.

 

 

If the Twins draft Appel

2013: Hicks reaches majors

2014: Salcedo, Appel,Arica reach the majors

2015 Sano and Rosario reach the majors.

2016: Boyd,Harrison,Goodrum reach majors.

 

Drafting Appel would expediate the Twins rebuilding process, and make a core 4 in between the next 2 years

 

 

If you need me to elaborate more just ask.

[righty8383]

A #2 overall pick, even if drafted out of HS, should take less than 4 or 5 years to reach the bigs. Mauer was drafted in '01 and debuted opening day '04. If the Twins take Buxton there's no reason (I'm making the assumption that he stays healthy and puts up solid numbers in the minors) that he can't debut sometime in 2015. That being said, I would prefer the Twins take Appel. I agree with those that say a team should draft best player avaliable, but to me it is not 100% clear who the best player is so I would prefer the Twins go by need.

[Shane Wahl]

The BPA crowd is overlooking the fact that it is impossible to tell who amongst the top . . . whole bunch who is going to be the best, especially when comparing high school to college players. The draft is such a crap shoot. The Twins primary need is a good starter who should be ready within three years max.

[Riverbrian]

The Farm system light. We need more advanced draftees. I don't know the players... I just think that you have to go college because they will be more advanced.

[Steve Lein]

I understand fully the "Take the best player available" argument, and agree that 99% of the time this is the route that an MLB team should take in the draft.

 

BUT,

 

I also 100% believe that this season, with the #2 pick, that the Twins have to use that 1% exception, and go for a pitcher with ace ceiling no matter what with their second pick. They aren't going to spend the money on a free agent or trade to bring one in, so they HAVE TO do it in the draft. Theoretically, they're likely never going to get a better opportunity than this, so they HAVE TO go with the "Best Pitcher", not necessarily the "Best Player".

 

Also consider, that the sooner they draft an (hopefully) Ace type pitcher, the quicker he gets to the big leagues to help Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau out during their prime...

[Seth Stohs]

Buxton is the no. 1 pick, easily, And the Astros will take him. The Twins should take Appel. He goes to FTM immediately.

You mean immediately on August 16th, knowing that he and most of the draft picks will sign at the very last minute.

[Thrylos]

2013: Hicks reaches majors sometime in middle of year.

2014: Salcedo,Arcia reaches Majors

 

The problem with this is that the Twins have control of Willingham and Span at least until 2014 and Revere and Plouffe until 2017. Unless there are some trades, Hicks and Arcia will be blocked. Add Benson to the equation (team control until at least 2018) and the numbers game gets ugly.

 

That's why trading Span soon, is a good thing IMHO

[nicksaviking]

You mean immediately on August 16th, knowing that he and most of the draft picks will sign at the very last minute.

Hopefully the holdout is a thing of the past with the new draft allowance. There will not be that much room to negotiate, and the players know that for every dime they try to squeeze from the team, one of their new teammates just got screwed.

[Jskage]

But, if you look at the top 10 picks for the 2000's, the percentage of pitchers picked that are top quality are few and far between.

Position players tend to do better so I want the Twins to get a "can't miss" player and get their pitchers with later picks. If it is Buxton, I say pick him and enjoy it!

[shawntheroad]

You mean immediately on August 16th, knowing that he and most of the draft picks will sign at the very last minute.

getting one of the college pitchers signed right away would definetly be useful if the Twins go that route. With the potential starting staff of 2014 coming, getting a guy they feel will contribute quickly, in the fold quickly would certainly help.

 

If they do draft a college pitcher, i hope they gauge that it will be a quick sign. The new rules of draft compensation may help.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

You mean immediately on August 16th, knowing that he and most of the draft picks will sign at the very last minute.

I think the signing deadline was moved up to mid-July.

[Seth Stohs]

I didn't like when players held out until the last minute and essentially lost that half-season of development. Hopefully the changes make that less likely. Appel seems to be a guy who could, if he signed right away, could go to Ft Myers and even get to New Britain. He could get a big league non-roster invite to camp and compete with the likes of Hendriks, Diamond, Wimmers and Gibson for a couple of rotation spots. If he waits to sign until late and doesn't play this year, he will likely start next year in Ft. Myers and see how it goes.

 

Then again, with his college coach leaving him out there last night for about 150 pitches, I get really scared of those types of pitchers. Ben McDonald, Mark Prior. So many examples of guys who got beat up in college. That's part of the crap shoot. Those guys could, rarely, turn into Justin Verlander... or they could be Mark Prior...

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I think getting signed early and into camp and back on the field is a huge bonus, but I don't necessarily think we would see a huge difference in the Twins system.

 

Take a guy like Madison Boer, who signed almost immediately after the draft last year. The Twins limited him to 23 games and 25 innings last year out of the bullpen and moved him to the rotation to start this year... at the same level he left off at.

 

Corey Williams, signed at the deadline, pitched at Elizabethton a little to finish last year and is now in Beloit's bullpen. How much would have changed for him had he signed in July instead of August? Would he have gotten a late season promotion to Beloit like Boer did? Would he be in the rotation now?

 

Don't get me wrong - I would much rather have a guy under contract right away and getting acclimated to "the life" ESPECIALLY if he's a position player - but the Twins are going to limit pitchers innings regardless of when they sign. Does signing late hinder their development? That's a good question...

 

Again, I agree with most of what you said Seth, but in your example of Appel, I just don't see that much difference in his developmental path if he signed early or at the deadline. But what do I really know?

[tpb8]

Please let us see Buxton or Zunino with the 2nd pick. The college arms are not high-end guys this year. Why bother with them? We need to take a potential superstar at #2.

[gunnarthor]

Please let us see Buxton or Zunino with the 2nd pick. The college arms are not high-end guys this year. Why bother with them? We need to take a potential superstar at #2.

I mostly agree but a guy like Zimmer or Gausman could turn into a #1.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

In the newest Ask BA installment there was a discussion about the top of the draft and Jim Callis's response was:

 

"At this point—though much can change in the next six weeks—I'd expect Georgia high school outfielder Byron Buxton, Florida catcher Mike Zunino and four college righthanders (Stanford's Mark Appel, Louisiana State's Kevin Gausman, Texas A&M's Michael Wacha and San Francisco's Kyle Zimmer) to go" in the top 6.

 

Although it's dangerous to assume these are the top 6 on the Twins board - and really only the top 2 matter - how do you rank these 6?

 

Right now, if I was running the show and all things were equal, I'd go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, Gausman, Wacha. I make my selection (hopefully) knowing exactly what my guy is going to cost (yes, I might take Appel over Zimmer if I knew the price tag was half a million less) and also being well aware of the fact that there is a really good chance I can get a high end pitcher in next year's draft. (A healthy Karsten Whitson, Florida, potentially...)

[gunnarthor]

In the newest Ask BA installment there was a discussion about the top of the draft and Jim Callis's response was:

 

"At this point—though much can change in the next six weeks—I'd expect Georgia high school outfielder Byron Buxton, Florida catcher Mike Zunino and four college righthanders (Stanford's Mark Appel, Louisiana State's Kevin Gausman, Texas A&M's Michael Wacha and San Francisco's Kyle Zimmer) to go" in the top 6.

 

Although it's dangerous to assume these are the top 6 on the Twins board - and really only the top 2 matter - how do you rank these 6?

 

Right now, if I was running the show and all things were equal, I'd go Buxton, Zimmer, Zunino, Appel, Gausman, Wacha. I make my selection (hopefully) knowing exactly what my guy is going to cost (yes, I might take Appel over Zimmer if I knew the price tag was half a million less) and also being well aware of the fact that there is a really good chance I can get a high end pitcher in next year's draft. (A healthy Karsten Whitson, Florida, potentially...)

I'd probably grab Buxton or Zunino if Buxton's gone (actually, that's what I think the Twins would do. I like Zunino more). All the SP have big question marks, I think Zunino and Appel are the safest picks. I think Appel makes it to the majors quickly but he might not be the ace you'd like to grab at #2. Zunino seems like a stud and can stick at catcher. And the Twins can use their supp and second round picks on pitchers.

[Mike Sixel]

So how do you ever get good or great pitchers if you never draft them high because they turn out less often . That actually means you should take even more pitchers. All the hitter people here cannot answer where they ever get pitching if you always pass on it due to riskiness

[gunnarthor]

So how do you ever get good or great pitchers if you never draft them high because they turn out less often . That actually means you should take even more pitchers. All the hitter people here cannot answer where they ever get pitching if you always pass on it due to riskiness

I think this year's group is not that enticing. Obviously, last year's group was mind blowing so comparing it to that isn't that fair but Zunino and Buxton have higher ceilings and Zunino, IMHO, is more likely to reach it than any of the pitchers. Now if Giolito (sp) hadn't hurt his arm, I'd probably be pushing to draft him.

 

The Twins have drafted a ton of pitchers in a draft before - the 04 draft they took 4 pitchers in the first and supp round. In 09, they took pitchers in the first 3 rounds. I just happen to think that the most talent they can get, right now, is taking Zunino or Buxton.

[twinsfanstreif]

So how do you ever get good or great pitchers if you never draft them high because they turn out less often . That actually means you should take even more pitchers. All the hitter people here cannot answer where they ever get pitching if you always pass on it due to riskiness

The problem is that this year there is not a David price, strasburg, or even a Cole at the top. I've mentioned before that it's like the orioles taking Matuz instead of buster posey In 2008 which was a bad move. Also there really isn't that much of a difference between the guys at the top like Appel or Zimmer and the guys that could fall to us at 32 like Hanley, beck, or Brian Johnson. There however is a big difference between Zunino and Elander.

[Thrylos]

Taking Buxton makes zero sense, unless the Twins are planning on thinning their current OFs in the minors sometime soon. Here is what They have as far as high end OF prospects are concerned:

 

AAA- Revere, Benson

AA - Hicks

A+ - Angel Morales, Oswaldo Arcia

A - JD Williams

R - Max Kepler

 

Add the fact that probably another top prospect Sano? Rosario? Goodrum? might end up at the OF (and so might Mauer when the bulk of these prospects are in the bigs), and the least thing you want to do is take another OF in the draft.

 

The Catcher might make sense, but I'd rather see them go after SP because of the questionmarks they have

[gunnarthor]

Obviously, this means nothing but on minor leagueball's latest mockdraft they have Guasman goine #1 and the Twins taking Zunino.

[righty8383]

If the Twins go with a position player it has to be Zunino in my opinion.

[Shane Wahl]

Taking Buxton makes zero sense, unless the Twins are planning on thinning their current OFs in the minors sometime soon. Here is what They have as far as high end OF prospects are concerned:

 

AAA- Revere, Benson

AA - Hicks

A+ - Angel Morales, Oswaldo Arcia

A - JD Williams

R - Max Kepler

 

Add the fact that probably another top prospect Sano? Rosario? Goodrum? might end up at the OF (and so might Mauer when the bulk of these prospects are in the bigs), and the least thing you want to do is take another OF in the draft.

 

The Catcher might make sense, but I'd rather see them go after SP because of the questionmarks they have

 

Exactly, and it's not even close. Zunino is not the only catcher out there, either. There are 3-4 high school catchers and 2-3 college catchers below Zunino who could be as good or better. Getting a top college pitcher who could end the year in New Britain is worth way more than gambling on Buxton.

[Mike Sixel]

i would respect the BPA strategy a lot more if this team would EVER trade multiple prospects for a legit, proven, MLB player, or sign legit FAs in their prime to fill holes that aren't filled in the draft. But they won't, it isn't in their DNA. And, do you really think there is no difference between guys that are likely to go top 5, and guys likely to go after 30 other players are picked? I find that hard to believe.

 

I'm cool with the BPA, but only if you are then actually willing to make trades and sign players that the draft can't fill.....but as long as you refuse to do that, you have to draft for position scarcity. And nothing is more scarce than starting pitchers, since you need 5-7 of them at any one time.

[nicksaviking]

Buxton is far from a sure thing. He's no less a risk than the top pitchers. He hasn't gotten the hype of Justin Upton, Alex Rodriguez or Ken Griffey Jr for good reason, we have no idea how he would fair against better pitching. I'm less of a fan of Zunino. Rarely is a catcher a year-in and year-out impact bat. Even if he is a Matt Wieters, a .775 OPS guy really shouldn't be a middle of the order bat and I don't know how anyone could argue that we can expect higher production from a college catcher. Besides, even in a best case scenario a replacement value catcher is less different offensively than any other position, it's the nature of playing less than 150 games but doing so in a strenuous postion. The gap between Josh Thole and Brian McCann is much less than the gap between Jason Marquis and Justin Verlander or between Trevor Plouffe and Matt Kemp.

 

Zunino is probably a safe bet to be a very good player, but his ceiling has to be very low compared to Buxton and the pitchers. If I have a pick this high, I want a chance at getting the most productive offensive player or best pitcher in the league six years down the road. A catcher is very rarely the best offesive weapon in baseball. Mauer's 2009 season may have been the only time. Other catchers have won MVP awards because the voters include the defensive ability and the demand of the position in their decisions. I don't want safe and Buster Posey, I would rather take a chance on getting someone who could be considered the best player in the league for half a decade.

[Mike Sixel]

From Law's insider column today....

 

"Other than its ties to "Moneyball," the 2002 draft is probably best remembered for the massive gaffe the Pirates committed with the first pick, choosing (apparently at owner Kevin McClatchy's behest) a safe college arm, Bryan Bullington, over the high-upside high school player atop most draft boards, B.J. Upton. "

 

Telling me I'm an idiot. Well, I doubt he's reading my comments....but if he thinks the hitters are that much better than the pitchers, then he is....

[Thrylos]

From Law's insider column today....

 

"Other than its ties to "Moneyball," the 2002 draft is probably best remembered for the massive gaffe the Pirates committed with the first pick, choosing (apparently at owner Kevin McClatchy's behest) a safe college arm, Bryan Bullington, over the high-upside high school player atop most draft boards, B.J. Upton. "

 

Telling me I'm an idiot. Well, I doubt he's reading my comments....but if he thinks the hitters are that much better than the pitchers, then he is....

Another interesting tidbid from the same article of interest to the Twins' fans:

Law indicates that Span would have been picked as the 9th overall pick by the Rockies but he wouldn't have signed for them because of the money, so he dropped to the Twins' 20th spot. I don't know whether to believe that or not...