Article: Twins Season Takes Another Dismal Turn

[Jorkal]

Criticizing Moore for going for it (on the pitching front) because he should have know most of his position player would take a dump....while defending Ryan for how bad the offense is (and team overall) because he couldn't be expected to believe so many of his position players would take a dump this year (Morney, Plouffe, Willingham, Doumit).

 

And I didn't say KC and the Twins were in the same situation going into this season...not sure where you got that from what I said.

 

Moore gets (rightly) slammed because he gave up 6 cost-controlled years of a top top prospect (plus other solid prospects) for 2 years of a fairly-paid good starter. In a best case scenario the Royals win total will be in the upper 80s; they're not "one pitcher" away from championship contention.

 

Also, they could have received a very similar improvement just by putting Myers in RF in place of Francouer (who was arguably the worst position player in baseball last year).

[ThePuck]

Moore gets (rightly) slammed because he gave up 6 cost-controlled years of a top top prospect (plus other solid prospects) for 2 years of a fairly-paid good starter. In a best case scenario the Royals win total will be in the upper 80s; they're not "one pitcher" away from championship contention.

 

Also, they could have received a very similar improvement just by putting Myers in RF in place of Francouer (who was arguably the worst position player in baseball last year).

 

They aren't one pitcher away this year because 6, 7 of their position players are under-performing big time with the stick...something that wasn't predictable...which was my point. Moore couldn't have predicted almost the whole young roster wouldn't improve, but instead take a step back. If those young guys, with some experience behind them, had progressed to what they are capable of, with that pitching, it's a different story. And, you know, they aren't out of playoff contention and it's August. Been a long time since they could say that. Their offense is getting better. It's not over for them yet.

 

Anyway, the whole point was, people will excuse Ryan when it comes to the offense because Ryan couldn't have predicted it so many would underachieve, but will slam Moore for not predicting his offense would take a dive due to almost all of his guys underperforming to their capabilities.

[Marta Shearing]

What has plouffe done to deserve to still be on this team? He has been dreadful. Right now I'll take anybody at 3B over him. Carroll, escobar, ANYBODY.

[nicksaviking]

Also when our minor league system starts going down hill, its only a matter of time till we are not going to be a competetive team. It appears to me we are on the uphill phase of the rebuild as players are starting to make it up to the majors and beging to get experience and broken in. This year is Pressly, Arcia, Hicks. Next season will be Sano, Meyer, maybe May, Tonkin, The following season will be Buxton...... and we should be a competetive team around this time. Also at this time there is a good chance the Twins will be able to sign a FA or 2 to help push this team over the top.

 

Yes, but the players simply making it to the majors isn't going to turn this ship around, they need to produce and they are not at this point. Three of the big prospects have come up this year, Arcia, Hicks and Gibson. So far each has not shown what we need to be a factor in rebuilding.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I have a feeling we just bottomed out, Twins fans. Pretty soon Hammer will displace Chris Hermann and Arcia is on his way up. I personally find Arcia to be a much more exciting prospect than anyone not named Sano or Buxton. We'll get to have a look at Albers (don't hold your breath).

 

Hey you can't have it all.

For the season, or for the organizational inneptitude?

This season may hold improvement over the current situation, but not much. Organizationally, I think 2014 will be the bottom, and upswing towards improvement. I think this team will get worse when they (necessarily) cut ties with the veteran players. Morneau, Willingham and most of the starting rotation will go, and most of the rest of the veterans will take a supporting role to the rookies. Because of this, the team will suffer through worse play by the rookies, but become a better team down the road.

[Riverbrian]

I just want to say... Personally... I will not slam Moore from the Royals... he needed pitching and he had a surplus of youth... he made a trade to go for it... Steep price but I can see the logic... I wouldn't have done it but I see the logic.

 

Nor am I going to slam Terry Ryan... I wasn't expecting a parade this year. It was gonna be a long road and it still is.

 

However... I do agree with Rogers's earlier post... Morneau, Willingham, Doumit and Plouffe have been big disappointments and I think that a large part of 2013 should be placed on their shoulders.

 

Those guys had 100 dinger potential combined. We will be lucky to get 50 combined!!!

 

We have 2 guys leading the team with 10 homers and its August. Pedro Florimon is 3 home runs off the home run lead and that kinda speaks volumes.

 

If you are getting that kind of power output... You need to reach base a lot. That ain't working either.

[PseudoSABR]

They have been disappointing, to be sure, but with the possible exception of Plouffe none were expected to be integral parts of the team's ongoing rebuild so I don't find their performances quite as worrisome.

Well, it is certainly worrisome in that they weren't/aren't legitimate trade chits--part of the rebuilding process was using Morneau, Willingham, Doumit to acquire assets which pay dividends in the near future.

[jokin]

There really weren't options for one year deals for CFs in free agency. Only other option was to not trade Span and Revere.

 

Nate McLouth, 1 year @ $2M.

[ThePuck]

Nate McLouth, 1 year @ $2M.

 

Who has THAT kind of money to throw around?

[ThePuck]

I just want to say... Personally... I will not slam Moore from the Royals... he needed pitching and he had a surplus of youth... he made a trade to go for it... Steep price but I can see the logic... I wouldn't have done it but I see the logic.

 

Nor am I going to slam Terry Ryan... I wasn't expecting a parade this year. It was gonna be a long road and it still is.

 

However... I do agree with Rogers's earlier post... Morneau, Willingham, Doumit and Plouffe have been big disappointments and I think that a large part of 2013 should be placed on their shoulders.

 

Those guys had 100 dinger potential combined. We will be lucky to get 50 combined!!!

 

We have 2 guys leading the team with 10 homers and its August. Pedro Florimon is 3 home runs off the home run lead and that kinda speaks volumes.

 

If you are getting that kind of power output... You need to reach base a lot. That ain't working either.

 

And if it didn't work out, Shields is a fine trade piece at the deadline, this offseason, or next deadline, if they choose not to resign him.

[cmb0252]

Yes, but the players simply making it to the majors isn't going to turn this ship around, they need to produce and they are not at this point. Three of the big prospects have come up this year, Arcia, Hicks and Gibson. So far each has not shown what we need to be a factor in rebuilding.

 

Adjusting to the bigs is hard. Give them time.

[jokin]

I just want to say... Personally... I will not slam Moore from the Royals... he needed pitching and he had a surplus of youth... he made a trade to go for it... Steep price but I can see the logic... I wouldn't have done it but I see the logic.

 

Nor am I going to slam Terry Ryan... I wasn't expecting a parade this year. It was gonna be a long road and it still is.

 

However... I do agree with Rogers's earlier post... Morneau, Willingham, Doumit and Plouffe have been big disappointments and I think that a large part of 2013 should be placed on their shoulders.

 

Those guys had 100 dinger potential combined. We will be lucky to get 50 combined!!!

 

We have 2 guys leading the team with 10 homers and its August. Pedro Florimon is 3 home runs off the home run lead and that kinda speaks volumes.

 

If you are getting that kind of power output... You need to reach base a lot. That ain't working either.

 

You still have the worst SP ERA in baseball, despite Ryan's alleged focus on stabilizing and bolstering the SP situation, he has achieved virtually the identical ERA performance numbers to last year's makeshift rotation shambles. The already horrible SP K/9 from 2012 of 5.57 is this year @ 4.77- mindboggling, and no defense can make up for that number over 162 games.

 

We can debate why Willingham and Doumit weren't dealt after career years, and why the 2 top-of-the-order OBP guys were traded without viable replacements waiting in the wings or being acquired via FA (Brian Dozier and Jamey Carroll/Chris Herrmann batting 1-2, seriously?).....for the sake of argument, just leave out the offensive side of the equation. There's just no way to sugarcoat the SP situation. This is on Ryan.

[WilliesWorld24]

"The model for the Twins is not the Yankees, Red Sox or Angels. It is a version of the Rays and As where they are able to hold on to some of thier stars instead of trading them away before they hit free agency."

 

 

I agree, but a few quick points. The Rays and A's model is not the same. The Rays model is to identify elite talent early and sign them to long term deals buying out arb years and first year or two in free agency. Longoria was signed to deal after first game or two of MLB career. This should have been the Mauer approach - Twins would have saved approx $60MM. Other players, Rays make tough decisions and trade talented players earlier rather than later - see Garza, Edwin Jackson, Bartlett, Kazmir, as well as let players go for draft picks - Crawford, BJ Upton, Pena, etc. Oakland flips young players early for a new wave of talent, see Cahill, Andrew Bailey, Gio Gonzalez, etc. and hit on a few reclamation projects - Balfour, Reddick. In either case, these clubs leverage a healthy feeder system in the minors and restock with talent - selling high and early, instead of late or not at all.

 

Agree with the Cardinals comment as well - great model. If the Twins utilized the Rays model, Mauer, Morneau, Johan, and Liriano, - elite talent - would have been signed to long-term deals (or if not, had been moved). Kubel, Cuddy, Nathan, Young, Willingham, Crain, Perkins, Hunter, Hardy, Punto, Baker, Pavano, Blackburn, etc. stars or solid major leaguers would have been moved a year or two too early for young, cost controlled talent. Even while competing.

 

This is not the Twins way. In what appears to be a more risk adverse model, the Twins wait. And wait. And wait. For what I am not sure - perfect information? Whether it is mid 2000s and not seeing that Johan was an elite pitcher - sign him up - or that they had a logjam of young outfielders in the minors and majors in the early 2000s, or 2010-11 they do not make moves in fear of getting burned. In 2010, the Twins were stocked with plodding slugging OFs with soon to be elapsing contracts in a large Target Field. Rather than weeding and feeding - and perhaps bringing more speed (Revere and Span in the large OF) - the Twins kept all of them - Kubel, Cuddyer, Young, Span, Revere (plus DH Thome) - and trading Hardy (?!?) for a fast (?!?) SS in Nishi. By 2011-12, they were all gone. Why wait for it to play out? If Young is in your plans, sign him. If the club realized that Delmon was a terrible fielder with poor OPS, sell high. Instead the Twins waited and sold low. Even this year, Twins had some assets to move (Fien, Perkins, Pelfrey, etc). If they will not be core to 2015-16 squad, they should be moved for players that may be part of that club. Otherwise the team is treading water

 

The talent run-off of the Twins has killed them, and this seems to be a function of the FO's strategy in managing baseball talent cycles, not bad luck. Success is a residue of design - and the Twins design (dumpster diving, collecting 5th starters, undervaluing starting pitching talent) is flawed. So now we wait and hope for 2015-16 for the next wave of talent. And hope is not a plan.

[Alex]

With the exceptionof Houston, the three teams with the lowest payrolls in baseball are the best teams in the MLs. Houston is going to be very good but they will have to go through the rebuilding process which takes time, just like the twins.

 

The answer is not overpriced FAs, especially for a team in the middle of the pack revenue wise. The model for the Twins is not the Yankees, Red Sox or Angels. It is a version of the Rays and As where they are able to hold on to some of thier stars instead of trading them away before they hit free agency.

 

I agree, but then everyone should be emulating thise teams,

 

The problem with comparing the Twins to the As and Rays is that both teams are far more innovative and less entrenched than the Twins are in old philosophies. Both are on the cutting edge of player evaluation while the Twins movement in that direction has been glacial in its speed.

 

In order for the Twins to even begin moving in that direction, you'd be talking about a complete organizational overall, which would need to include the complete dismantling of the good old boys club they have going. I'd love to see it, but it's not going to happen.

[Alex]

 

This is not the Twins way. In what appears to be a more risk adverse model, the Twins wait. And wait. And wait. For what I am not sure - perfect information? Whether it is mid 2000s and not seeing that Johan was an elite pitcher - sign him up - or that they had a logjam of young outfielders in the minors and majors in the early 2000s, or 2010-11 they do not make moves in fear of getting burned. In 2010, the Twins were stocked with plodding slugging OFs with soon to be elapsing contracts in a large Target Field. Rather than weeding and feeding - and perhaps bringing more speed (Revere and Span in the large OF) - the Twins kept all of them - Kubel, Cuddyer, Young, Span, Revere (plus DH Thome) - and trading Hardy (?!?) for a fast (?!?) SS in Nishi. By 2011-12, they were all gone. Why wait for it to play out? If Young is in your plans, sign him. If the club realized that Delmon was a terrible fielder with poor OPS, sell high. Instead the Twins waited and sold low. Even this year, Twins had some assets to move (Fien, Perkins, Pelfrey, etc). If they will not be core to 2015-16 squad, they should be moved for players that may be part of that club. Otherwise the team is treading water

 

The talent run-off of the Twins has killed them, and this seems to be a function of the FO's strategy in managing baseball talent cycles, not bad luck. Success is a residue of design - and the Twins design (dumpster diving, collecting 5th starters, undervaluing starting pitching talent) is flawed. So now we wait and hope for 2015-16 for the next wave of talent. And hope is not a plan.

 

Well put.

[AROG]

Terry Ryan gets a lot of love and hate here, but I think the love is where I sit. He did well in his tenure with the Twins on his first go around, making solid trades and building from within. He had teams that year in and and year out competed for division titles and if they got hot and a little lucky could have won the whole thing once or twice. That is the formula for the Cardinals and every other team not spending stupid amounts on payroll.

 

When Ryan took over the last time he took over an aging major league team that was over paid and bad. Also, the minor league system had almost nothing good at any of the top 3 levels. So, he began the rebuild. That starts with getting rid of players that are making too much and can be let go. Hoping some of the ones you hold on to can produce a team that stays competitive.

 

That is the goal of every GM during these times, to keep a competitive team on the field that will keep the fan base coming to the games until the team is ready to win again. To accomplish that task, you need to get some "quality" major league fill ins to stop gap. Good ones wont go to a team that doesn't have a shot at winning. Decent ones want a stab in the dark at winning because if the team does win when they shouldn't, those vets often get the praise. People are upset at Ryan for selling bill of goods in the winter about possibly winning this year. Do you think anyone would sign a major league deal with the Twins if they had offers from anyone else had he not said that?

 

GM's are salesman with business skills and evaluation abilities. So he was overly optimistic to try and sign some players to have a decent product on the field. Aaron Hicks gets blamed a lot for being over rated and I think that is a bit unfair as well. The man is still young. It takes time to come up and hit well. He didn't get demoted in June because he was hitting .250 since May. July he regressed so they did the smart thing and put him down for service time. Ryan had a back up in mind but he was hurt. Beggars can't be choosers. We don't have anyone better that can fill Hicks' spot. Thomas has been just as bad but we could care less about his service time.

 

The team will get better year after year and it is fair to say that in Buxton's rookie year they could compete for a division title. By then some of the other guys that will form the nucleus of the Twins team will have a year or two under their belt and be playing well, not great yet, but well. When that happens free agents will want to come and be apart of a young team that has real talent and could win.

 

Sorry for the long winded ramblings. Kinda...

[SpitefulRabbit617]

Man I can't wait until Mastroianni is in CF, loved that speed in Center with hicks. Lord knows Clete isnt that fast.....

[ltwedt]

I get so angry when I think about management and their style - angry because:

 

* TR would rather be known as someone who once found a reclamation project and it actually was brilliant - his constant trips to the bargain bin are very trying - and soon will be reflected at the gate.

 

* The organization has pissed away three years in the career of the best hitting catcher in MLB history, with minor league pitching. If the Twins get a quality start, they are competitive Why are we so satisfied to see Mauer surrounded by a AA team - yes - AA - that is NOT a typo!

 

* If you go to the ball park - you are paying major league prices for minor league baseball? As a season ticket holder I feel as though I have been misled. For 3 years we have broken camp with pitchers who are fortunate to be Twins - they would not be on any other teams 40 man, let alone on the MLB roster.

[AROG]

I get so angry when I think about management and their style - angry because:

 

* TR would rather be known as someone who once found a reclamation project and it actually was brilliant - his constant trips to the bargain bin are very trying - and soon will be reflected at the gate.

 

* The organization has pissed away three years in the career of the best hitting catcher in MLB history, with minor league pitching. If the Twins get a quality start, they are competitive Why are we so satisfied to see Mauer surrounded by a AA team - yes - AA - that is NOT a typo!

 

* If you go to the ball park - you are paying major league prices for minor league baseball? As a season ticket holder I feel as though I have been misled. For 3 years we have broken camp with pitchers who are fortunate to be Twins - they would not be on any other teams 40 man, let alone on the MLB roster.

 

What pitcher do you think the Twins could have signed last off season for close to the amount they received that actually would have come to play for this team? Sure, they could pay astronomically high prices for players well above what they are worth and a few would sign. But nobody wants to come play for market value for the team on the field. that is why you have to rebuild. I understand you sentiments, I do, but overpaying is how you get to where we are at. The players wont come back in free agency until we have the team around them to win.

[S.]

Offering a higher price than the competition is how teams have been signing free agents forever. If that is overpaying, then damn near every single player who has ever signed in free agency was "overpaid". Sure, some (read: very few) players sign at discounts to play with a specific team, but for every 1 player who does that, 100 sign with whoever will pay them the most.

[Mike Sixel]

Don't forget, the A's signed a Cuban for tens of millions, more than Ryan has ever spent.......And you know what, I don't want to watch him refuse to fill holes in 4 years when they just are missing that one piece (like earlier this decade), because of whatever reason. I'm ready for him to be gone. He is not McPhail, and we should all realize that.

[drjim]

Nate McLouth, 1 year @ $2M.

 

I was talking CFs.

[edavis0308]

Every organization should strive to emulate the Cardinals. They have maintained a very good farm system for many years without high picks. Some of the credit for their player development success goes to Jeffrey Luhnow who joined the Astros before 2012. With the help of two high picks and trades he has turned the dismal Astros farm system into one of the best in baseball. It will be interesting to see how important he was to the Cardinals success.

 

The Twins have a good farm system. They need to develop those assets and keep adding to the talent. They need to have patience as those players struggle as they move up to the majors.

 

I'm replying to this before I read the whole thread, so forgive me if this gets touched on later.. purely speculation on my part, but does it have anything to do with paying over slot at all for upside? Not having high picks isnt necessarily a kiss of death for collecting talent, but if the Twins save money on high floor guys (until recently), the flip side would be overpaying for high ceiling. Is this what the Cardinals have done, or have they been better at the Twins draft strategy than the Twins themselves?

[LastOnePicked]

"The model for the Twins is not the Yankees, Red Sox or Angels. It is a version of the Rays and As where they are able to hold on to some of thier stars instead of trading them away before they hit free agency."

 

 

I agree, but a few quick points. The Rays and A's model is not the same. The Rays model is to identify elite talent early and sign them to long term deals buying out arb years and first year or two in free agency. Longoria was signed to deal after first game or two of MLB career. This should have been the Mauer approach - Twins would have saved approx $60MM. Other players, Rays make tough decisions and trade talented players earlier rather than later - see Garza, Edwin Jackson, Bartlett, Kazmir, as well as let players go for draft picks - Crawford, BJ Upton, Pena, etc. Oakland flips young players early for a new wave of talent, see Cahill, Andrew Bailey, Gio Gonzalez, etc. and hit on a few reclamation projects - Balfour, Reddick. In either case, these clubs leverage a healthy feeder system in the minors and restock with talent - selling high and early, instead of late or not at all.

 

Agree with the Cardinals comment as well - great model. If the Twins utilized the Rays model, Mauer, Morneau, Johan, and Liriano, - elite talent - would have been signed to long-term deals (or if not, had been moved). Kubel, Cuddy, Nathan, Young, Willingham, Crain, Perkins, Hunter, Hardy, Punto, Baker, Pavano, Blackburn, etc. stars or solid major leaguers would have been moved a year or two too early for young, cost controlled talent. Even while competing.

 

This is not the Twins way. In what appears to be a more risk adverse model, the Twins wait. And wait. And wait. For what I am not sure - perfect information? Whether it is mid 2000s and not seeing that Johan was an elite pitcher - sign him up - or that they had a logjam of young outfielders in the minors and majors in the early 2000s, or 2010-11 they do not make moves in fear of getting burned. In 2010, the Twins were stocked with plodding slugging OFs with soon to be elapsing contracts in a large Target Field. Rather than weeding and feeding - and perhaps bringing more speed (Revere and Span in the large OF) - the Twins kept all of them - Kubel, Cuddyer, Young, Span, Revere (plus DH Thome) - and trading Hardy (?!?) for a fast (?!?) SS in Nishi. By 2011-12, they were all gone. Why wait for it to play out? If Young is in your plans, sign him. If the club realized that Delmon was a terrible fielder with poor OPS, sell high. Instead the Twins waited and sold low. Even this year, Twins had some assets to move (Fien, Perkins, Pelfrey, etc). If they will not be core to 2015-16 squad, they should be moved for players that may be part of that club. Otherwise the team is treading water

 

The talent run-off of the Twins has killed them, and this seems to be a function of the FO's strategy in managing baseball talent cycles, not bad luck. Success is a residue of design - and the Twins design (dumpster diving, collecting 5th starters, undervaluing starting pitching talent) is flawed. So now we wait and hope for 2015-16 for the next wave of talent. And hope is not a plan.

 

Outstanding post. Just outstanding.

[Mike Sixel]

The Cards also signed some legit free agents.....no, they have guys drafted since the slotting system that are rated highly, and some contributing at the MLB already. They are just good at drafting and developing, really good.

[drjim]

One question for the loyalists here, how long does this continue before major changes should be made? (Moving Smith to a different office and changing some minor coaches doesn’t count).

 

Personally I want Gardy replaced after this season and Ryan gone after 2014 if there is not clear progress with the mlb team. I'm pretty sure Ryan will resign if 2014 is another bad year, so win-win, right?

[ThePuck]

I was talking CFs.

 

McClouth is more than capable of playing CF. He has over 500 games played there. Orioles have Jones in CF, which is why he doesn't play CF.

[jharaldson]

Regardless of if you agree with the strategy Terry Ryan took this season or not I think Nick's point of the youth movement being dismal in 2013 is spot on. If you take projections for the team like those provided by Phil Mackey:

 

Mackey: Projecting the Minnesota Twins' 2013 regular season record | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

 

And compare them to actuals for the young guys we wanted to take steps forward it is pretty depressing:

 

[TABLE=width: 441]

Proj OBP

Proj SLG

Proj OPS

Real OPS

Dif

Aaron Hicks

0.315

0.388

0.703

0.597

-0.106

Chris Parmelee

0.335

0.425

0.760

0.675

-0.085

Trevor Plouffe

0.306

0.444

0.750

0.702

-0.048

Brian Dozier

0.306

0.367

0.673

0.688

0.015

Pedro Florimon

0.293

0.336

0.629

0.639

0.010

[/TD]

Pitcher

Proj ERA

Real ERA

Dif

Vance Worley

4.00

7.21

3.21

Scott Diamond

4.15

5.52

1.37

Kyle Gibson

4.07

6.21

2.14

Samuel Deduno

4.79

3.18

-1.61

[TD]

[/TABLE]

 

Of these 9 guys that were supposed to be a supporting cast to what would be a Mauer/Sano/Buxton/Meyer core there is one bright spot (Deduno) 2 guys that have been fine (Dozier/Florimon) and a bunch of failure.

[drjim]

I'm replying to this before I read the whole thread, so forgive me if this gets touched on later.. purely speculation on my part, but does it have anything to do with paying over slot at all for upside? Not having high picks isnt necessarily a kiss of death for collecting talent, but if the Twins save money on high floor guys (until recently), the flip side would be overpaying for high ceiling. Is this what the Cardinals have done, or have they been better at the Twins draft strategy than the Twins themselves?

 

They have mixed well. Cardinals have a great system now but it has had its ups and downs. It was one of the worst a couple of years ago and the team coincidentally had a lull.

 

I think many grand sweeping conclusions get drawn from a couple of years of data and all the answers can be found that way. There needs to be a little more context in some of these posts. Baseball franchise arcs take time, people are way too reactionary positively and negatively to short amounts of time.

 

The Twins suck right now but they did just come off a great decade. Rebuilds surely take time. We as fans better hope this wave emerges as it should or getting rid of Ryan will be the least of our worries regarding this franchise.

[S.]

The Twins suck right now but they did just come off a great decade.

http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/1167769/jags.gif