Article: Deduno Defies Convention

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2155-Deduno-Defies-Conventions

[Badsmerf]

Still a hater. He has been on thin ice all year and I highly doubt he will sustain this going forward. Fun story, but.... I'm a hater.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

"Deduno is a unique and unconventional case."

 

This also serves to break up the "look" of a rotation, creating adjustments from game to game for opposing hitters. Thanks for the article, Nick.

[Otwins]

Love watching Deduno. Forget the stats - watch him make the other teams best hitters look bad consistently. Twins best pitcher by far.

[RedBull34]

I can't imagine it would take much to lock him up for a couple of years and isn't he really much more interesting than somebody like Correia? I really wouldn't mind if the Twins signed him.

[jorgenswest]

I can't imagine it would take much to lock him up for a couple of years and isn't he really much more interesting than somebody like Correia? I really wouldn't mind if the Twins signed him.

 

He is under Twins control until 2019. At that point he will be 35.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I bought into Deduno when he started performing well this season. He's definitely not a bad back end pitcher and he has the stuff to stay. Keep him at under 5 million/year and I'm satisified with an extension. The Twins really found a gem with him. I hope Albers gets a chance to become another one.

[old nurse]

DeDuno pitches like the theory of pitch to contact works.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Deduno has earned the Diamond spot in the rotation for next season, and hopefully he fares better than Diamond did this season. That seems fairly optimistic at this point. I'm sure he's helped by improved middle infield defense since he seems to be a bit of a worm killer.

 

That said, if he can sustain this, he's a very nice back of the rotation option. If he can figure out how to dial it back up and get those extra Ks he's given up this season, he could become a very good pitcher in general, and given his control would fit in quite well with the next wave of guys.

[Thrylos]

By the way, this probably deserves a post of its own, but I'm thinking Rick Anderson might deserve a TON of credit for Deduno's unprecedented improvements with control.

 

This could potentially be true, if the turnaround did not happen during the WBC before Andy had time to work his "magic" with him.

 

Even DickNBert credited his WBC coaches for the turnaround...

[Willihammer]

This could potentially be true, if the turnaround did not happen during the WBC before Andy had time to work his "magic" with him.

 

Even DickNBert credited his WBC coaches for the turnaround...

This was my initial reaction, but Nick points to the end of May as the turnaround. So he has already had a "cycle" this season.

 

I would compare him to Liriano but he doesn't have 3 plus pitches. Just that fastball that looks like Felix's changeup at 89 mph and the curveball which is a pretty good pitch.

 

Like just about everyone else on the staff, he hasn't been able to lean on his third pitch in his third trip through the order. If he can make that changeup an equalizer against LHBs then we may have something. Until then I won't hold my breath that he'll be able to get through a lineup 3 times a night consistently.

[blindeke]

He is under Twins control until 2019. At that point he will be 35.

 

It's like nobody remembers the Blackburn deal...

[Nick Nelson]

This could potentially be true, if the turnaround did not happen during the WBC before Andy had time to work his "magic" with him.

 

Even DickNBert credited his WBC coaches for the turnaround...

 

He was with his WBC team for a matter of weeks and pitched a total of 13 innings in that tourney. Pretty huge stretch to suggest that his short time there was entirely responsible for a sustained turnaround that has lasted through 12 starts against major-league competition.

 

You have a consistent tendency to oversimplify the adjustments made by players and their coaches. It's a complicated and ongoing process. I'm sure his time in the WBC contributed to his improved results (in no small part because of the confidence he gained) but come on.

[ericchri]

I don't know if I'm sold on him completely, but I do know I'd rather watch him pitch than any of our other starters by a good margin.

 

Deduno's in a huge list of players on this year's team that you can look at and go, "maybe he's gonna be really good, if..." We've seen flashes from so many guys this year, but so few have really shown any consistency (barring maybe some bullpen folks and Mauer). He still has a couple months to the year though, if he keeps this up I'll look at him as a potential part of the future as opposed to just a stopgap.

[hansob]

still not buying as anything more than a 4th or 5th starter. His BABIP with men on base is .226, and with men in scoring position, it's .206. The ground ball % is encouraging, but ground ball pitchers actually tend to have higher BABIPs, since ground balls end up as hits more than fly balls.

 

Another BABIP red flag. He's 136th out of 137 pitchers (70 innings min) for infield fly balls, which is a pretty key component of predicting future BABIP.

[frightwig]

I think some pitchers are pretty good at inducing weak contact, but the ones who have prolonged success tend to give themselves more room for error (or bad luck) by keeping walks down AND maintaing a decent K/9. But nobody is a weak-grounder machine. Eventually, probably before too long, Deduno will lose a little something--speed, some movement, or control--off his pitches; and maybe his BB/9 goes up again, or his K/9 keeps falling, and he won't have any margin for error when hitters pounce on his mistakes. It will be like Mays, Silva and Blackburn all over again.

 

I'm fine with the Twins sending him out there until that happens. He's earned a job next spring. And, really, kudos to him and Anderson for getting his walks under control this season. I just hope they never, ever give him a Mays/Blackburn multi-year deal.

[LimestoneBaggy]

still not buying as anything more than a 4th or 5th starter. His BABIP with men on base is .226, and with men in scoring position, it's .206. The ground ball % is encouraging, but ground ball pitchers actually tend to have higher BABIPs, since ground balls end up as hits more than fly balls.

 

Another BABIP red flag. He's 136th out of 137 pitchers (70 innings min) for infield fly balls, which is a pretty key component of predicting future BABIP.

 

Deduno as a fifth starter. I'm buying into that team. Even with some regression to the mean.

[TheLeviathan]

still not buying as anything more than a 4th or 5th starter. His BABIP with men on base is .226, and with men in scoring position, it's .206. The ground ball % is encouraging, but ground ball pitchers actually tend to have higher BABIPs, since ground balls end up as hits more than fly balls.

 

Another BABIP red flag. He's 136th out of 137 pitchers (70 innings min) for infield fly balls, which is a pretty key component of predicting future BABIP.

 

That's some excellent info - great first post!

[DedunoTheMuffinMan?]

still not buying as anything more than a 4th or 5th starter. His BABIP with men on base is .226, and with men in scoring position, it's .206. The ground ball % is encouraging, but ground ball pitchers actually tend to have higher BABIPs, since ground balls end up as hits more than fly balls.

 

Another BABIP red flag. He's 136th out of 137 pitchers (70 innings min) for infield fly balls, which is a pretty key component of predicting future BABIP.

 

As a GB% increases, BABIP goes up and then back down, according to this: http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/matt_and_batted_balls_part_2_a_thread_about_baseball/#1. This can be seen by how weak the groundballs Deduno typically gives up are. Those aren't going for hits. It also helps him to have Florimon and Dozier behind him.

 

Deduno also ranks 7th lowest in LD% among pitchers with 70+ innings, and LD% is a huge factor in BABIP. Batters can't squarely hit the ball against him. I think it's reasonable to expect Deduno to keep a low BABIP, but he probably won't continue to be so lucky with men on base.

[jimbo92107]

This was my initial reaction, but Nick points to the end of May as the turnaround. So he has already had a "cycle" this season.

 

I would compare him to Liriano but he doesn't have 3 plus pitches. Just that fastball that looks like Felix's changeup at 89 mph and the curveball which is a pretty good pitch.

 

Like just about everyone else on the staff, he hasn't been able to lean on his third pitch in his third trip through the order. If he can make that changeup an equalizer against LHBs then we may have something. Until then I won't hold my breath that he'll be able to get through a lineup 3 times a night consistently.

 

A lot of Deduno's effectiveness comes from his pitching motion, where he cocks his hand right behind his ear, a la Bartolo Colon. From that spot, like Colon, Deduno gets extra spin, as well as good deception. Another factor, overlooked by many, is Deduno's athleticism. He fields his position as well as any pitcher I've seen, and when he fires the ball to a base, it comes like a rocket, with no bend. That helps when you induce such a high percentage of grounders.

 

With his deception, his movement and his defense, I see no reason that Samuel Deduno 2.0 can't continue to be a good major league starter.

[Oldgoat_MN]

still not buying as anything more than a 4th or 5th starter. His BABIP with men on base is .226, and with men in scoring position, it's .206. The ground ball % is encouraging, but ground ball pitchers actually tend to have higher BABIPs, since ground balls end up as hits more than fly balls.

 

Another BABIP red flag. He's 136th out of 137 pitchers (70 innings min) for infield fly balls, which is a pretty key component of predicting future BABIP.

 

Isn't that just another manifestation of his being a ground ball pitcher?

If batters seldom get under his pitches they would hit very few infield fly balls.

[Willihammer]

A lot of Deduno's effectiveness comes from his pitching motion, where he cocks his hand right behind his ear, a la Bartolo Colon. From that spot, like Colon, Deduno gets extra spin, as well as good deception. Another factor, overlooked by many, is Deduno's athleticism. He fields his position as well as any pitcher I've seen, and when he fires the ball to a base, it comes like a rocket, with no bend. That helps when you induce such a high percentage of grounders.

 

With his deception, his movement and his defense, I see no reason that Samuel Deduno 2.0 can't continue to be a good major league starter.

 

Colon also throws a plus slider and a plus change. 3 good pitches, at minimum. like just about every other successful starter in baseball.

 

You can have all the deception in the world but if you're only throwing one or two pitches then its pretty easy to time one of them, esp. after you've seen 8 or 10 pitches from a guy already.

 

I realize I sound like a broken record probably but it is maddening to me to watch Anderson and his mustache walk out there when a guy is struggling, and afterwards you see Mauer flash a "1." And it seems like 1/2 the time it gets hammered. And then Gardy has to trot out there.

 

Who, in the entire organization, besides one of the few guys we brought in from outside, throws a splitter? I can't remember the last Twins pitcher to come up from the farm with a good one.

 

You look at guys like Hiroki Kuroda. He doesn't overpower anyone, but he does throw two different fastballs, a slider, a curve, and, famously, a split. Or Halladay, with two fastballs, slider, curve, change. Fister, Wainright, same thing. Felix doesn't throw 96 anymore but he gets guys out just as much. Why is that?

 

Why does this organization seem like its afraid of teaching guys to throw junk?

 

/rant

[MarshalltheIrish]

I'm torn on Deduno. I love seeing him do well, plus I have a personal soft spot for him as he was one of the few Twins to hang around for autographs at the Twins/Angels game I went to recently (Got his signature for me and my little sister!). But my enthusiasm for him is kind of mitigated by his age, as well as his known control issues. If he keeps improving, by all means I'd like to see more of him. For some reason I've considered him as a good candidate for a long/middle reliever, although as a late bloomer as a starter I doubt he'd want to make that transition, whereas Duensing and Swarzak did so badly as starters that they needed the second wind of bullpen work. All the same, good write-up Nick!

[h2oface]

I don't remember Anderson being around at all when Deduno turned the corner and starred in the WBC. In fact, I would say Anderson NOT being in his ear is what brought the change and confidence.