Article: Which Twins are most likely to be traded?

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2153-Which-Twins-are-most-likely-to-be-traded

[nicksaviking]

Nice write up. Surprised Doumit isn't in the top 11 though, guys with some pop and some, cough, versatility usually interest multiple teams. I'm also surprised Carroll was atop the list. He seems like the kind of guy who gets moved in August, but his versatility likely will be appealing.

 

For what it's worth, sources are telling Beradino that Morneau is 50-50 to be moved, though I think it's less. I don't think the Twins ship him off for a Liriano-esque package and I don't think they'll get offered much more. I think they have a little bit of awareness of what a straight salary dump for a still fan favorite would mean.

[TwinsFanInPhilly]

Most likely to pass waivers and be traded in August - Willingham?

[Halsey Hall]

I'd rate Duensing as the most likely to go. Never thought of Butera, but that's a very good choice. I can see Burton, then Plouffe, Parmalee being dealt too. It would probably be good for Carroll to be traded. He should be playing more, and plays the game the right way. Swarzak is around an even bet to move too.

 

I wouldn't be trading Perkins, Fien, Pelfrey or Morneau.

[Kwak]

I think the "Morneau as fan favorite" negative response is way overblown. The games I have attended or those watched at a bar, no one even mentions Morneau. Those at the game are soaking-up the atmosphere, the actual game, the food/beverages, and those in their party. Mauer--is an entirely different story--but Morneau, just not seeing the "fan love".

[DaveW]

Most likely to pass waivers and be traded in August - Willingham?

Willingham wouldn't pass waivers, he is still a big bat with a favorable contract.

[jorgenswest]

Willingham wouldn't pass waivers, he is still a big bat with a favorable contract.

 

So let him leave.

 

There is a reasonable chance he will spend a significant part of next year injured. His skills are declining. He is a significant liability LF. His value is power and walks. However, the walks need to be discounted because he doesn't run well.

[DaveW]

So let him leave.

 

There is a reasonable chance he will spend a significant part of next year injured. His skills are declining. He is a significant liability LF. His value is power and walks. However, the walks need to be discounted because he doesn't run well.

 

Give me a break. Why is there such a great risk of injury with him? His prior four years he averaged 132 games a year and in 3 of the 4 had more than 130 games.

 

Yes his defense is bad, but you can DH him, and there is no reason why he cant still give you a .800-.840 OPS and 25 or so HR. If he is a DH you are probably looking at a guy who is a 2.7-3.3 WAR player next year, which makes him a relative steal at 7 mil.

 

Plus you can always hold onto him, wait for the rebound and trade him when his value is a bit higher.

 

This team needs bats heading into next year, instead of dumping one of our cheap internal ones and bringing in another FA we should certainly keep him around at this point (unless a good offer is made in the off-season)

[LaBombo]

Good summary, and while it's difficult to find fault with Morneau being only a 1 in 5 chance of being moved, it would probably be a mistake not to take a Liriano-ish return for him, especially if the primary or even sole justification for hanging on to him is the fear of fan backlash after a trade.

 

It's hard for me to think of a time when the Twins were less appealing to even casual fans than in the mid-to-late 90's, when fan favorites Paul Molitor and Terry Steinbach were still being trotted out as everyday players to distract fans from the appalling white-dwarf collapse of what had been regarded in 1995 as the shiny, happy nucleus of the next wave of competitiveness.

 

And I think you could argue that both Molitor and Steinbach contributed more on field than Morneau is at this point, and even that they were selling more tickets as a percent of the overall box office.

 

Some casual fans and some season ticket holders of the 'wins and RBIs' variety may grumble, and a few may even walk. But the cat is already out of the bag for most fans; they know the Twins stink even with Morneauzie in the lineup every day, and that he is unfortunately nowhere near the player he used to be.

 

Send him to Texas, and play up the 'Justin will get another chance to play for a contender' and 'reunited with Joe Nathan' angles. Justin was one of the three most popular and productive players of the competitive run in the past decade. But it's over. Move on. The draw of the park and the emerging kids' storyline far exceed Morneau's at this point.

[LaBombo]

Most likely to pass waivers and be traded in August - Willingham?

They'll dangle him, but they'll just end up pulling him back before they even make it very far into the nuisance claim stage.

[jorgenswest]

Give me a break. Why is there such a great risk of injury with him? His prior four years he averaged 132 games a year and in 3 of the 4 had more than 130 games.

 

Yes his defense is bad, but you can DH him, and there is no reason why he cant still give you a .800-.840 OPS and 25 or so HR. If he is a DH you are probably looking at a guy who is a 2.7-3.3 WAR player next year, which makes him a relative steal at 7 mil.

 

Plus you can always hold onto him, wait for the rebound and trade him when his value is a bit higher.

 

This team needs bats heading into next year, instead of dumping one of our cheap internal ones and bringing in another FA we should certainly keep him around at this point (unless a good offer is made in the off-season)

 

OK. He can DH as long as they find someone to take Doumit. Neither should be in anything more than a Jim Thome role. The pitchers deserve and need better.

 

As a DH, Thome earned 1.5 and 3 million with the Twins.

[E. Andrew]

Great write-up.

[Danchat]

I liked the article. I would add in Ryan Doumit at 10% and Sam Deduno at 7.5%.

And Nick Blackburn at .00001%.

[DaveW]

OK. He can DH as long as they find someone to take Doumit. Neither should be in anything more than a Jim Thome role. The pitchers deserve and need better.

 

As a DH, Thome earned 1.5 and 3 million with the Twins.

 

First off, Thome was a freaking steal that first year and in even part time work (100 games) he still posted a 3 WAR.

 

Not sure what Thome has to do with anything in this convo, Willingham can DH and play a little LF when it makes sense. Doumit can play some back up catcher and some 1st base. Hell Willingham maybe will have to play some first base next year at this point as well.

[jimbo92107]

It would be nuts to trade Pelfrey right now. First, the Twins wouldn't get much for him, because the buyer can still point at his season ERA and his TJ surgery. Second, Pelfrey when healthy would be an excellent mid-rotation starter and innings eater. Third, Pelfrey does so many things mechanically right and is such a solid pro that his leadership role could be huge for Gibson and other young pitchers.

[Thrylos]

Good stuff, other that Butera's alleged "elite" defense. He played enough in the bigs for all us to see throws at 2B going to CF and passed balls, to bust that suburban legend...

 

Agreed about Carroll, but his .216/.270/.247 line does not make him very desirable to a contender.

[jorgenswest]

Butera's pop to pop time throwing out runners is very good. His numbers in pitch framing have been average at best. In his weekly show, Gardenhire praised his ability to go out to the mound and get Diamond back on track. Does he see something mechanical to adjust or is he just getting him refocused? Not sure. It is a skill that would be difficult to measure.

 

If a catcher has influence on anything that could be measured it would be the defense independent stats like strike outs and walks. In 2012, Twin pitchers had a better K/BB ratio with Butera (2.53). Doumit was 1.67. In that sense, Doumit makes him look elite.

[Thrylos]

If a cacher has influence on anything that could be measured it would be the defense independent stats like strike outs and walks. In 2012, Twin pitchers had a better K/BB ratio with Butera (2.53). Doumit was 1.67. In that sense, Doumit makes him look elite.

 

"Elite" is in comparison to the rest of the league and he has to be on top 2 or 3 to be "elite". Being better than Doumit, does not "elite" make...

[nicksaviking]

Good summary, and while it's difficult to find fault with Morneau being only a 1 in 5 chance of being moved, it would probably be a mistake not to take a Liriano-ish return for him, especially if the primary or even sole justification for hanging on to him is the fear of fan backlash after a trade.

 

I have no interest in a Liriano-ish return for Morneau. The Twins don't have room for more career AAAA players on the 40-man. I'd rather let him play out the year even if there was only a 1% chance of Morneau turning it around enough to earn a qualifying offer.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

It would be nuts to trade Pelfrey right now. First, the Twins wouldn't get much for him, because the buyer can still point at his season ERA and his TJ surgery. Second, Pelfrey when healthy would be an excellent mid-rotation starter and innings eater. Third, Pelfrey does so many things mechanically right and is such a solid pro that his leadership role could be huge for Gibson and other young pitchers.

 

I think the reason is because his deal (realistically) expires at the end of this season. Perhaps there is more leverage in a re-signing than a signing, but I'm not sure Pelfrey has been enjoying his stay here. Although, I agree with you on that he would be good for this team.

[Kwak]

Probability of trading Pelfrey revised to 0.1%

[shs_59]

Morneau and Duensing to Yankeees

 

For Michael Pineda and Rafael De Paula (or is it Jorgel de paula?)

 

option #2

 

Justin Morneau and Jared Burton to Pirates

 

for Allen Hanson

 

or even Better Dillson Herrera and Nick Kingham

[TheLeviathan]

Not sure what Thome has to do with anything in this convo, Willingham can DH and play a little LF when it makes sense. Doumit can play some back up catcher and some 1st base. Hell Willingham maybe will have to play some first base next year at this point as well.

 

Since when does Doumit play first?

 

Reviewing the options in this thread makes me, as a Twins fan, a very sad panda.

[drjim]

I have no interest in a Liriano-ish return for Morneau. The Twins don't have room for more career AAAA players on the 40-man. I'd rather let him play out the year even if there was only a 1% chance of Morneau turning it around enough to earn a qualifying offer.

 

The other option is to pass him through waivers in early August (assuming no one claims the contract) and hope he rebounds enough to get a little more value sometime later in the month.

[Otwins]

After looking at the list what is the odds of "No Deal"

[OldManWinter]

Itchy Trigger Fingers Here. What Does A Career AAAA HR Hitter Bring?

[beckmt]

Do not see the Twins making a trade. Maybe if something happened tonight, but unlikely. Carroll would be a good trade at this time, he is just taking AB's away from players we need to find out about. May have to bundle players to get a return, TR should try.

[old nurse]

A few thousand posts about trading players leads me to believe personal likes and dislikes cloud a lot of judgement here.

[drjim]

Is there a worse GM in the league that Good Ole Boy Terry Ryan? Absolutely NOT!!!

 

His inaction is embarrassing.

His lack of statistical understanding is sad.

His pitching philosophy is from the 1980's.

He is the worst GM by far at aquiring FA talent.

His only mode of scouting is to determine if the guy is "Nice" and/or if he will "shut up and toe the company line".

 

It makes me sick seeing the Head Cheerleader Stohs and the rest of the Polad Pocket Protectors pretend that this man deserves to be employed.

 

Terrry has made our once somewhat respectable organization and absolute laughingstock!

 

Analysis

[NC-Twins]

So let him leave.

 

There is a reasonable chance he will spend a significant part of next year injured. His skills are declining. He is a significant liability LF. His value is power and walks. However, the walks need to be discounted because he doesn't run well.

 

He is the closest thing we have to a DH.