Shaping the Twins infield going forward

[twinstalker]

I'm bringing up this subject because of something that's been bothering me. The Twins best infielder this year is Brian Dozier. He's entering his prime years, and we can expect that he'll be better the next couple of years. He's also saving a spot for the irresistible force that is Eddie Rosario, and Dozier's arm and range are such that it is very unclear whether a utility role suits him.

 

No room at the inn? Well, clearly, Dozier will start 2014 in the lineup as Rosario continues to press forward. Here's a look at the other names and positions and my opinions on what is optimal (and then what Ryan will do).

Trevor Plouffe: I think there are two clear options here, neither of which will be explored by Ryan/Gardy. First, Miguel Sano will soon be up, and he will play everyday. Plouffe has shown himself to be a pretty poor 3B, and he's flashed power, but when all is said and done, you really only want him to bat against LHP and play an unimportant defensive position (DH, 1B, RF). Unfortunately, Gardenhire refuses to ever do a straight platoon, and in Plouffe's case, he'll probably refuse to do it even though DH, 1B, and RF will be the perfect spots to get him in the lineup vs lhp once the Sano era starts. Meanwhile he mans 3B full-time.

 

The other good option with Plouffe is to trade him for some sort of prospect (better than Liriano return but unfortunately not a B prospect). Sano is coming and Plouffe is going to arbitration as a super two. If you're not going to pay him arbitration rates as a platoon corner guy, then perhaps the solution is to move him now and sign a cheap placeholder until Sano gets here. I doubt either option is chosen, and Plouffe, like most Twins, will die on the vine until he's released or traded for basically zero. Most likely he'll move to 1B where his bat vs rhp will prove insufficient, thus prompting his demise into nothingness prior to becoming a useful piece with another organization.

 

Shortstop: No doubt the Twins will enter 2014 with Pedro Florimon as their one and only option. What else can they do? James Beresford and Danny Santana might provide some competition in camp, but Florimon's defense has impressed enough to make him the sure-thing there. My opinion is that on a good team, Florimon's bat can be hidden, on the Twins he's just another hole in the lineup. The Twins, like the good teams they hope to become, need someone who can both hit and pick it. No suggestions, unfortunately, except please find a Profar or Machado or Lindor. Well, let me try out this one: move current Class A infielder Jorge Polanco to SS full-time in the minors and determine whether or not his glove is majors-worthy. His bat looks like it will play.

 

First base: Well, the main question here is if Chris Parmelee's bat is quick enough to hit enough to play first base. And then because of Gardenhire, can he hit lhp? (It's gotten so frustrating, I just don't understand how he's allowed to continue to make horrible decisions). Parmelee will not be playing the outfield because Arcia will be in right, Hicks in center, and Buxton in left (Gardenhire again). I would suggest that Parmelee will hit enough to form half a good platoon with some combination of Plouffe and Chris Colabello.

 

So targeting midseason 2014 with the Twins not in contention, here's the plan to optimize:

 

[TABLE=width: 500]

Player

Plan

Mid 2014 pos

Eventually

B. Dozier

Trade in 2014

[/TD]

E. Rosario

Recall mid 2014

2B

Regular

P. Florimon

Pray

SS

Polanco?

T. Plouffe (A)

Trade now

NYY prospect? Get a stop-gap for 2014

T. Plouffe (

Platoon mid 2014

1B/DH/RF/3B

keep while low $$$

M. Sano

Recall mid 2014

3B

all-star

J. Beresford

Recall mid 2014

Utility

[TD]C. Parmelee

Platoon Aug 2013

1B

Vargas/Harrison

C. Colabello

Platoon Aug 2013

1B/DH

Vargas/Harrison

[/TABLE]

 

One way or another, you have to optimize your assets, and unfortunately we can only dream about that, because Terry Ryan has always waited to deal someone until he's hit some sort of valley. It's like he's afraid of the perception of Twins fans if he deals someone who's doing well. Take Perkins as a prime example, though other reasons can be argued. Take Willingham last year. Plouffe has value right now. Trade him or use him correctly next year. Dozier will have value next year, probably. Trade him while he's doing well (my projection, anyhow). He's not the future and is unlikely to be a good utility guy.

 

I've made this a larger post than it seemingly is an issue, but I can already see Plouffe and Dozier as completely wasted or mis-used assets.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Neither Plouffe or Dozier have the value right now to get something of need. That to me ends the trade conversation. Neither will net much.

[Shane Wahl]

I really want the Twins to get with it and trade Morneau and Doumit now. A-ball b-level prospects don't bother me as a return (esp. since they could just resign Morneau in the offseason if they really want to do so). This opens up first base for a Parmelee/Colabello platoon for the rest of the season, at least. It also clears up DH, which is going to be a good opening at some point next season when Arcia, Plouffe, and Sano are all on the roster.

 

Anyway, Brian Dozier is going to have to prove that he can play acceptable defense at SS and 3B for him to be that kind of utility player after the ascent of Rosario (earliest would be June).

 

Florimon, Beresford, Escobar, and Santana are next in line for SS (and some 2B), though Beresford isn't playing really at all there this year (seems quite silly). Escobar and Santana are huge question marks right now. Santana hasn't figured out AA yet, so I don't see him doing anything else but starting 2014 in New Britain. Escobar could be Carroll's replacement at the beginning of 2014, but I don't see much value in him whatsoever. Florimon is overall an adequate player right now. If he improves next year, then he is very valuable for the time being.

[Willihammer]

What could we get for Rosario?

[Siehbiscuit]

Guys like Dozier are a dime a dozen. Jamey Carroll would probably net more.

[whosafraidofluigirussolo]

I've been wondering whether Rosario, who moved from the OF to 2B, might break into the majors as an outfielder after all. The assumption is that he'll be in the majors in mid-to-late 2014. Dozier is nothing great, but he seems to be improving. The Twins have 2 outfielders to build around for next season, Hicks and Arcia, but no one making a hugely compelling case as the third starting OF.

This all changes when Buxton is ready, of course, but even at a torrid pace he's at least a year behind his fellow top prospects Sano and Rosario. So if Rosario's ready when expected next year it may be a matter of displacing Dozier versus displacing, for example, Parmelee. Who knows where they'll be next year but I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Dozier as the more valuable piece to keep in the lineup at that point.

 

Addendum: In this scenario I'd hope that they'd still find a way to get Rosario some reps at 2B, maybe sitting Dozier once or twice a week, to keep him prepared for a longer-term future at second. Who knows if the Twins can think that creatively, though.

[Willihammer]

Should we wait till Mauer injures his left knee a 3rd time before moving him to 1B?

 

I think the biggest infield hole going forward could be catcher.

[Shane Wahl]

Rosario at second base is an elite prospect. In LF? Not so much. I understand the scenario looks to have changed, but I can't imagine him moving back to the OF. They could ease Rosario in when he eventually gets to the Twins (June or so?) by platooning he and Dozier at second base. But, you know, that might make too much sense or something.

[bird]

It appears to me that they'll need to go outside the system for a shortstop by 2016 at the latest, as Florimon won't cut it as the SS on a contender. Perhaps a catcher too, if Pinto and Herrmann don't cut it, which is fairly likely. Maybe Kepler will have a breakout year and solidify himself as the 1B of the future. It appears to me that Plouffe and Parmelee will both be expendable in 2014. Let's hope for B grade Class A pitching as the return.

[twinstalker]

Yes, sorry, Kepler is the clear leader for future 1B. Also, Plouffe does have some value right now. NY would love him. Dozier I'm suggesting trading if he gets off to a good half-season next year, but it's stupid to suggest Ryan would ever consider trading a guy who's doing well. He might get criticized!

[twinstalker]

Rosario at second base is an elite prospect. In LF? Not so much. I understand the scenario looks to have changed, but I can't imagine him moving back to the OF. They could ease Rosario in when he eventually gets to the Twins (June or so?) by platooning he and Dozier at second base. But, you know, that might make too much sense or something.

How dare you suggest a platoon!

 

Part of what makes Rosario a top prospect is his position, but his bat still projects better than what the Twins are throwing out there (Thomas?) after ditching Willingham. Obviously, Buxton's timetable plays into the thought of Rosario playing any OF, but it wouldn't shock me to see him get ABs there.

[Thrylos]

This is good stuff, other than this

 

I think there are two clear options here, neither of which will be explored by Ryan/Gardy.

 

I just hope that the Twins are done with both of them after this season.

 

As far as 2014 goes, a lot is up for grabs. I doubt that Sano and Rosario start the season in the majors. They might not even make it in September (esp. if Ryan and Gardenhire are around). I doubt that Mauer is going to first base in 2014, maybe in 2015-6, but with Morneau out (I hope) I can see Mauer spend more time at first. I would be hard pressed to see anything other that

 

C- Mauer

1B - Parmelee/Colabello

2B - Dozier

SS - Florimon

3B - Plouffe

 

to start the season.

 

I starting liking Dozier more and more and I think that Plouffe has potential. From what I have seen from Beresford, he will not be better in a utility role than Escobar or even Dozier. I like the thought of Plouffe as an OF (heck, they are trotting Willie and Doom out there now...)

[Trevor0333]

Plouffe & Dozier have very modest trade value. They are no where near Spans value. They should end up being very solid vet backups on a great team. Unless you need to clear salary there is no point moving them for fringe 40 man roster prospects.

 

The Twins inf of the future is Sano/Florimon/Rosario. The 3 big ? marks next season are 1B, OF, & SP.

 

1B Options: Parmelee, Collabello, Josmil Pinto, Kenny Vargas

Besides Parmelee & Collabello Pinto & Vargas are the oldest near mlb ready guys. Adam Walker & Travis Harrison are better power prospects but a few years away yet. Unless Morneau has a huge Aug & Sept 1B will be a Parmelee/Collabello & DH platoon with Hammer. If they fail, Pinto could be ready for atbats mid year even making Doumit tradeable. Vargas is not far behind either.

 

OF Options: Mastrioanni, Doumit, Thomas, Parmelee, Morales.

Willingham will start the year with the team likely being an obvious trade deadline fodder for a contender. The FO will likely explore off season trades for Hammer but I expect he will need to restablish some value with a good start. Thomas could be back as a 4th OF but I expect Arcia will move to RF and Mastroianni will have the inside track with Angel Morales being a sleeper option in LF. If the Twins resign Morneau to a 2 year deal Parmelee is the obvious 1st option to sink or swim.

 

SP options: Deduno, Gibson, Correa, Pelfrey (will be resinged) are the top 4. Meyer/May will not be considered to start the season at least. I don't see Correa surviving the entire year. Look for a Phil Hughes Josh Johnson type signing to go along with a Pelfrey being resigned to a 2 year deal. May & Meyer will be AAA insurance for the first SP to flame out from injury or innefectiveness. Wimmers could be sleeper if he finds his touch after a year removed from TJ surgery.

[Tokyo Twins Fan]

The SS for the 2016 is not on the team yet. How about Trea Turner, assuming we lock in a top 5 pick he would move through the system rather quickly. That leaves Floriman as the utility guy.

 

I happened to watch the original SS of the future for the Twins the other day when I saw Nishioka go 2-4 with a run scored here in Japan the other day while batting lead-off. His team got drubbed 11-1 so it was a fun game to watch.

[Major League Ready]

Should we wait till Mauer injures his left knee a 3rd time before moving him to 1B?

 

I think the biggest infield hole going forward could be catcher.

 

Based on our last draft, I think the Twins FO probably agrees with you.

[Don't Feed the Greed Guy]

It appears to me that they'll need to go outside the system for a shortstop by 2016 at the latest, as Florimon won't cut it as the SS on a contender.

 

I respectfully disagree. With Sano at 3rd, the Twins will need a ++ defensive shortstop with great range. That may be Florimon. Twinstalker is correct in stating that "Florimon's bat can be hidden, on the Twins he's just another hole in the lineup." That's the 2013 Twins, for sure. But a 2016 lineup will include Mauer, Sano, Rosario, Arcia, Buxton, Hicks AND a seasoned Florimon with over 2000 mlb at-bats (he has 414 now).

 

For the same reason, I like Dozier as a platoon option at short and second. He has 640 mlb at-bats, with some offensive upside--certainly more than Florimon. Dozier was .298/.370/.409 over four minor league seasons. By 2016 he could be a legit pinch hit option too.

 

Now, Rosario as an outfielder... This makes sense once or twice a week, or 30-40 games a year, depending upon the defensive assets/liabilities of Arcia, Buxton, Hicks and a fourth outfielder (Herrmann? or other catchers in the system being groomed to play in the outfield and behind the plate.)

 

Bottom line: Florimon, in my opinion, is a keeper. Ranking first (AL 2013) in the following defensive categories: Assists, Total Zone Runs, and both Range Factor metrics. He's also second in double plays turned as a shortstop. Let's keep him.

[Badsmerf]

Rosario is not jumping around the diamond. He will be at 2b for good. I don't see any problem with letting Florimon have SS for the foreseeable future. He is sitting at 1.9 WAR on the year, and I highly doubt the Twins will improve on that with their in-house options. Perhaps Polanco can take over in a few years, but Florimon has earned the job for now.

 

How Plouffe and Dozier end the season will dictate a lot IMO. Plouffe had a horrendous July, especially after the AS break. Both could be trade bait next year at the trade deadline. Either could have pretty decent value to bring in a top 100 guy. It will be interesting to watch what they do. One should be kept around for INF depth (my guess Dozier for his D), but with Sano and Rosario coming up they will be redundant.

[Craig in MN]

I've been thinking about the infield next year too, but more in terms of free agency. The Twins left a lot of money on the table this year, and will have another 25 million or so coming off the books this year. They really should be spenders this year.

 

The main problem with that is that it makes no sense to spend on an catcher, or outfielder, or 3b, or 2b, or bullpen arms....there's either too much depth or no sense blocking a top prospect. There's not much in the way of shortstops out there. That leaves starting pitching and 1B/DH. We'd all love a top starting pitcher, but the dds are long that they'd spend so much on pitching that there's be nothing left for 1b/DH.

 

They could stick with Parmalee, Collabello, Doumit, Hermann, Plouffe, etc but they really have 2 slots there and none of them have any guarantee of doing anything with the bat. They really should bring in someone, and there are quite a few 1b/DHs on the market this offseason.

 

My suggestion would be to sign Kendrys Morales to a contract and slot him in at 1B unless his defense goes downhill. It would probably have to be a 3 year deal for Willingham type money or more, but that's just fine with me and there should be the money available. There are a lot of other guys out there, but hes the one that I'd want.

 

With Arcia, Sano, Rosario all getting close, and the Twins without any real Spanish speakers on the coaching staff and not much else on the team, having a veteran Hispanic leader on the team could bridge the gap and provide some leadership for the young guys. By next year, the infield could be Sano, Florimon, Rosario & Morales....might as well get a veteran who can communicate with the guys to show them how it's done.

 

Morales came up to the majors when he was 22 or 23, so he's got some of the same experiences as those young guys. He's only 30, so still young enough to offer something. He's a switch hitter and fits right in the middle of the lineup and the Twins can use that from day one. Let Parmalee, Collabello, Doumit, etc fight for time at DH....and maybe even give them a legitimate bench bat. Plouffe too whenever Sano comes up.