Article: What To Do With Mike Pelfrey?

[jimbo92107]

Trade Correia for anything (though I doubt anyone would want to pay his $5m salary next year) and extend Pelfrey with Correia's money plus a few million.

 

Who am I kidding? Cut payroll another $30m and roll with Gibson and a herd of AAAA donkeys. I'm sure the savings will be reinvested when the Twins return to competitiveness, right? Right!?!??

 

Kevin Correia does have value as a back-rotation innings eater. On a team with good offense he could win half his games, pitching regularly into or past the seventh inning. That kind of production is a lifesaver for a team's bull pen, while allowing your top starters to get your team above .500.

 

Mike Pelfrey is now healthy and pitching well. He's a good mlb starter with excellent form and great work habits. You want a veteran like him to show the other guys how to be a professional. Sign him to a 3-year deal at the market rate. Pelfrey can be a team leader for your pitching staff.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Verlander, King Felix and that crowd are getting over $25 million per year.

 

For 2013, 2014 and 2015 Mark Buehrle is getting $16 million per year. Sanchez over $15 per year, and that is for a 5 year commitment.

 

If it appears that Pelfrey is really back, that these last couple of months are not a fluke, then give him a qualifying offer. ‘There’s no such thing as a bad one year contract’. And it’s not like the twins are up against salary restraints.

 

Oddly enough, that might not be enough to keep him. It would at least get us a draft pick if Pelfrey signs elsewhere.

 

And as TheLeviathan points out, $13 million kept Lohse from getting signed. The qualifying offer would help the Twins be the team that signs him to a long term deal if they want a veteran presence in the starting rotation. Especially one who wants to be here.

Pelfrey does not have anything like Lohse’s recent track record.

 

I appreciate what raindog points out about Pelfrey’s career SO/9 numbers, but his FIP has looked pretty good for June & July. And again, it’s only one year.

 

Oh, and jokin made a funny. He said Boras will be looking for 3 years/$20 million for Pelfrey.

Boras will be looking for 5 years, $75 million.

[DaveW]

Offer Pelfrey 2 years, 16 million (+6 mil in IP incentives) with a vesting 3rd year option for 11 mil (with 375 IP over two years)

[Guest USAFChief]

A month ago, everyone on this board would have scoffed at the idea of wanting Pelfrey in the rotation even for the rest of 2013. Now people are advocating 3 yr deals and qualifying offers.

 

This for a guy with a career 91 ERA+, 1.46 WHIP and 5.1 K/9 in the NL.

 

Perhaps we should back off a bit and try to put things in perspective. If he can continue to pitch for the rest of 2013 like he has in July, it would be worth investigating bringing him back.

 

But that's not very likely.

[DaveW]

A month ago, everyone on this board would have scoffed at the idea of wanting Pelfrey in the rotation even for the rest of 2013. Now people are advocating 3 yr deals and qualifying offers.

 

This for a guy with a career 91 ERA+, 1.46 WHIP and 5.1 K/9 in the NL.

 

Perhaps we should back off a bit and try to put things in perspective. If he can continue to pitch for the rest of 2013 like he has in July, it would be worth investigating bringing him back.

 

But that's not very likely.

 

A guy who can give you a 4.00-4.50 ERA and 200 IP has plenty of value. Maybe 8-9 mil a year is too much. But I would be happy keeping him for 6-7 mil a year for a couple years. Basically he would be like a younger/healthier pavano for us. Nice to have an innings eater like that to count on who can pitch a few real nice games as well.

 

Also it could allow us to trade Correia for whatever we can get. Much rather have Pelfrey penciled as our number 5 for the next couple years and some combo of Meyer, May, Gibson, DeDuno, Josh Johnson?/Lincecum?/etc filling out the first 4 spots.

[Guest USAFChief]

A guy who can give you a 4.00-4.50 ERA and 200 IP has plenty of value. .

He last accomplished that in 2010.

 

As for Pavano, I warned you about his last contract with the Twins too, remember?

[cmathewson]

He last accomplished that in 2010.

 

As for Pavano, I warned you about his last contract with the Twins too, remember?

 

Thing is, it's tough to have it both ways: Tell us of how stupid the FO is for signing guys and how stupid the FO is for not signing guys. You might say, "It depends on whom you sign. Sign only the guys with high K rates, etc." I get that, but those guys are rare and hard to sign. So you have to settle for guys like Pelfrey. It's not unreasonable to me to give him a Pavano-like contract and hope for the best. If he sucks, you're not losing much.

 

He's still pretty young. He's past his TJ surgery. He should be better in his second year back from it. He'd make a nice fourth starter in a good rotation.

 

Also, don't make him the headliner. Make him the second sign. Sign a headliner too.

[DaveW]

He last accomplished that in 2010.

 

As for Pavano, I warned you about his last contract with the Twins too, remember?

In 2010 and 2011 Pavano was well worth the money, he averaged 220 IP and had a 4.02 ERA

 

2012 was bad because of an injury, but those things happen.

 

23.5 million for 2 years of damn good performance and one "lost year" really isn't that bad. Even his awful 2012 in those 60 innings were more bad luck then anything, his FIP and XFIP were over 1.5 runs lower then his ERA.

 

Not that it really matters, but Fangraphs said his "value" those 3 years was actually 27 million, even with the injury. If we signed Pelfrey to a 3 year deal and he gave us 2 years of 220 IP and 4.02 ERA and then got injured one year, I probably could live with that.

[jorgenswest]

The best predictor of future injury is previous injury history. Why commit long term based on a month of OK pitching? OK pitching might be a stretch as he has averaged less than 6 innings per start this month.

 

What is the likelihood that Pelfrey will be effective and healthy in 2015? I wouldn't bet much money on it. I hope the Twins don't.

[DaveW]

Thing is, it's tough to have it both ways: Tell us of how stupid the FO is for signing guys and how stupid the FO is for not signing guys. You might say, "It depends on whom you sign. Sign only the guys with high K rates, etc." I get that, but those guys are rare and hard to sign. So you have to settle for guys like Pelfrey. It's not unreasonable to me to give him a Pavano-like contract and hope for the best. If he sucks, you're not losing much.

 

He's still pretty young. He's past his TJ surgery. He should be better in his second year back from it. He'd make a nice fourth starter in a good rotation.

 

Also, don't make him the headliner. Make him the second sign. Sign a headliner too.

I also think pitching outside of NYC has/is going to continue to help him. While coming up with the Mets expectations were sky high that he would be a stud in that rotation.

 

After coming back in 4 games (SSS I know) he only failed to not have a QS in one of those (because he was one out short) his ERA has been 2.28 and his strikeout rate has been decent with 17 in 23 innings. Plus its not like those teams were the Astros etc, he went against Toronto, TB, Clev and LAA, all of those teams have pretty solid offenses.

 

The Twins should take the opp now before the deadline to extend him. I think he wants to stay here since he has family in the area and could end up being a real nice player for us moving forward with such a young rotation. (He again would be our veteran Pavano like guy, just still in his prime instead of towards the end of his career)

[ThePuck]

It's not like Pelfrey had a lot of injury history prior to last year. Over 200 IP in each of the previous 4 seasons prior to 2012. He's pitched a little over 6 IP since the calender turned to June and he has 5 QS in his last 7 games. He's definitely getting better. I don't think we need to assume just because he missed most of 2012, means he'll necessarily just continue to be a injury risk.

[DaveW]

The best predictor of future injury is previous injury history. Why commit long term based on a month of OK pitching? OK pitching might be a stretch as he has averaged less than 6 innings per start this month.

 

What is the likelihood that Pelfrey will be effective and healthy in 2015? I wouldn't bet much money on it. I hope the Twins don't.

Before TJS Pelfrey was a guy who would give you close to 200 IP a year (Average 196 the four years prior)

 

If you are going to shy away from every pitcher who has had TJS then your pickings frankly are gonna be real slim....

[DaveW]

It's not like Pelfrey had a lot of injury history prior to last year. Over 200 IP in each of the previous 4 seasons. He's pitched a little over 6 IP since the calender turned to June and he has 5 QS in his last 7 games. He's definitely getting better. I don't think we need to assume just because he missed most of 2012, means he'll necessarily just continue to be a injury risk.

 

Exactly, its Tommy John Surgery, it's not some recurring Santana/Radke like shoulder issue. What is the % of pitchers who have had TJ at this point and moving forward? I bet in 10 years about 40% of all SP in baseball will have had it at some point.

[Guest USAFChief]

One way or another, this thread will be fun to look back on in a year or two.

[TheLeviathan]

If you are going to hand this guy 13M - do it as part of a 2 year/15 type contract. But jesus, don't give him a one year 13M deal. It makes him untrade-able if he's anything but excellent next summer and it still does solve any problems for your rotation going forward.

 

I'm ok with throwing around a little extra cash, but Pelfrey on a qualifying offer is insane. Bump him a few extra million and see if you can get a couple of years of value out of him if you're going to do that. (And I'm not saying I would)

[Oxtung]

I'm amazed that people think Mike Pelfrey is going to get a 3 year guaranteed contract let alone people wanting the Twins to be the one offering. Even when healthy he isn't a particularly good pitcher.

 

I would trade Pelfrey for anything you could get in return and if it isn't obvious by now I would advocate signing a pitcher with actual upside this upcoming off season.

 

Since we know that isn't going to happen I don't care what the Twins do with Pelfrey as long as it isn't a 3 year deal. I vomited a bit in my mouth just now thinking about it.

[Willihammer]

Thing is, it's tough to have it both ways: Tell us of how stupid the FO is for signing guys and how stupid the FO is for not signing guys. You might say, "It depends on whom you sign. Sign only the guys with high K rates, etc." I get that, but those guys are rare and hard to sign. So you have to settle for guys like Pelfrey. It's not unreasonable to me to give him a Pavano-like contract and hope for the best. If he sucks, you're not losing much.

 

He's still pretty young. He's past his TJ surgery. He should be better in his second year back from it. He'd make a nice fourth starter in a good rotation.

 

Also, don't make him the headliner. Make him the second sign. Sign a headliner too.

 

I agree with you 100% Dark. Pelfrey is a surer bet to shore up the back of the rotation than Deduno I think, as much as I've enjoyed watching Deduno turns things around this year. But Pelfrey's put together 200+ IP seasons before and if he keeps up the pace I think he could do it again next year. His velocity is almost all the way back now. He's throwing good games. Elbow looks fine to me.

 

That still leaves 4 spots though. I'd like to see them make 3 additional marquee type signings. I'd love to see Kuroda on a 1 year deal, which could happen if the Yankees continue to tail off, and then 2 of Johnson / Lincecum / someone else in that tier, to round out the rotation. And then let Meyer / May / Albers fight it out for the 5th spot.

[Monkeypaws]

I cringe to think that this year will be a re-launch of his career ... for another team. Like Dickey.

[Major League Ready]

I'm amazed that people think Mike Pelfrey is going to get a 3 year guaranteed contract let alone people wanting the Twins to be the one offering. Even when healthy he isn't a particularly good pitcher.

 

I would trade Pelfrey for anything you could get in return and if it isn't obvious by now I would advocate signing a pitcher with actual upside this upcoming off season.

 

Since we know that isn't going to happen I don't care what the Twins do with Pelfrey as long as it isn't a 3 year deal. I vomited a bit in my mouth just now thinking about it.

 

I think the big "IF" Pelfrey continues on this pace and has an ERA in the 3.5 range for June - Oct has gotten lost in this thread. It probably won't happen, but if it does, 3 years would not surprise me with all of the TV revenue that will be spent on next year's FAs. He is now a pitcher in his prime so should we be greatly surprised if a GM thinks Pelfrey can deliver 200 innings/yr and an ERA right around 4.00. 3.72 in 2008 & 3.66 in 2010 and was off to his best start in 2012 when he was injured. Now, a year removed from TJ surgery he is a pitcher in his prime with enough history to convince someone he is a reasonable bet.

 

My interpretation of what Jeremy suggested was that he would not accept a qualifying offer IF he continued on this pace because someone would offer a multi-year deal. It would be a risk but worth it if there was a reasonable chance he rejects it.

[old nurse]

I agree with you 100% Dark. Pelfrey is a surer bet to shore up the back of the rotation than Deduno I think, as much as I've enjoyed watching Deduno turns things around this year. But Pelfrey's put together 200+ IP seasons before and if he keeps up the pace I think he could do it again next year. His velocity is almost all the way back now. He's throwing good games. Elbow looks fine to me.

 

That still leaves 4 spots though. I'd like to see them make 3 additional marquee type signings. I'd love to see Kuroda on a 1 year deal, which could happen if the Yankees continue to tail off, and then 2 of Johnson / Lincecum / someone else in that tier, to round out the rotation. And then let Meyer / May / Albers fight it out for the 5th spot.

 

Lincecum and Johnson might be tendered. That would gain their maybe former team a draft pick and lose the players a team (the Twins) as a suitor. If they are not tendered tat would mean the Giants would think Lincecum's days as the Freak are over . Johnson would probably have to have another injury this year. Given the Twin's luck with injuries, I would hope that Johnson would do back to the NL.

Is their anyoneone else available in their tier when they are on?

[raindog]

I cringe to think that this year will be a re-launch of his career ... for another team. Like Dickey.

Even if he returns to his best self, he won't be a huge loss. He was never a great pitcher. Odds are he won't become one in his age 30+ seasons.

[iastfan112]

One way or another, this thread will be fun to look back on in a year or two.

 

Agreed. I think the people advocating a qualifying offer are nuts, Pelfrey isn't as good as a Burhle or a Sanchez, nor will he have the two excellent back to back seasons Lohse had(and he still had trouble finding a contract. I find the idea of a 3 year 6-7 million contract intriguing. Yes its a gamble but that sort of contract, even if Pelfrey sucks, doesn't hamstring the franchise.

[Monkeypaws]

Even if he returns to his best self, he won't be a huge loss. He was never a great pitcher. Odds are he won't become one in his age 30+ seasons.

 

Well, neither was Dickey when the Twins cut him loose. The guy had never had an ERA under 5 until his season with the Twins. He goes to the Mets and boom, 3 great seasons culminating in a Cy Young.

 

Pelfrey throwing mid 90s with sink on a rebuilt arm sounds like a chance for success to me, especially considering he is only 29.

[jorgenswest]

Before TJS Pelfrey was a guy who would give you close to 200 IP a year (Average 196 the four years prior)

 

If you are going to shy away from every pitcher who has had TJS then your pickings frankly are gonna be real slim....

 

Instead we are going to give three year contract to guys having a poor season but has a string of 4 OK starts. For his career, he is credited with 1 WAR per every 27 starts. That's a value of about 5 million a year if he stays healthy. He needs to not only show he is healthy, he needs to show he is better than his career numbers. He needs to show he can throw at least 7 innings in his good starts. It would be foolish to give him a multiyear contract. There will be enough 1 WAR pitchers available in the winter.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Yeesh, a qualifying offer? No thanks. I really don't care if the Twins overspend for one year of a guy but that seems like an absurd waste. One should be able to get Pelfrey for two years for not much more than $13m.

[TheLeviathan]

Agreed. I think the people advocating a qualifying offer are nuts, Pelfrey isn't as good as a Burhle or a Sanchez, nor will he have the two excellent back to back seasons Lohse had(and he still had trouble finding a contract. I find the idea of a 3 year 6-7 million contract intriguing. Yes its a gamble but that sort of contract, even if Pelfrey sucks, doesn't hamstring the franchise.

 

I'm glad someone said it, because I've been trying to say that as nicely as possible.

[Kwak]

My guess is that he is an August waiver. The Twins appear to me to be "in a cost-cutting mode" and will likely have a rotation of: Corriera, Deduno, Diamond, Gibson plus one from the minor leagues. I really don't think they will spend in free agency this off season--and definately not for one of the "best available pitchers".

[Oxtung]

I think the big "IF" Pelfrey continues on this pace and has an ERA in the 3.5 range for June - Oct has gotten lost in this thread. It probably won't happen, but if it does, 3 years would not surprise me with all of the TV revenue that will be spent on next year's FAs. He is now a pitcher in his prime so should we be greatly surprised if a GM thinks Pelfrey can deliver 200 innings/yr and an ERA right around 4.00. 3.72 in 2008 & 3.66 in 2010 and was off to his best start in 2012 when he was injured. Now, a year removed from TJ surgery he is a pitcher in his prime with enough history to convince someone he is a reasonable bet.

 

My interpretation of what Jeremy suggested was that he would not accept a qualifying offer IF he continued on this pace because someone would offer a multi-year deal. It would be a risk but worth it if there was a reasonable chance he rejects it.

 

I think the additional revenue will result in higher yearly salaries not additional years. As such perhaps Pelfrey will make $8M/year but still only get a 1-2 year deal (assuming of course he continues his 3.5ish ERA).

 

Prime or not Pelfrey hasn't been a good pitcher. He's had a couple of good years as you point out but his other years have been really bad. He's had ERA+ of 81, 78 and 81(so far this year). He's never had a WHIP below 1.36 and his K/BB rate is 1.62 for his career. None of that screams "lock me up!!!" He is what he is, a 4/5th starter that will, hopefully, eat innings. Those guys don't get long term contracts. In short, half a season of good pitching wouldn't outweigh 4 seasons of mediocrity.

[twinstalker]

Get what you can now. This season is lost. To re-sign him, you will have to commit to multiple years, and NOTHING Pelfrey has ever done makes him worth multiple years. Sorry, folks, we just let a guy mend on our dime, but that was pretty obvious when we gave him a straight one-year deal. Get what you can NOW.

[Oxtung]

Well, neither was Dickey when the Twins cut him loose. The guy had never had an ERA under 5 until his season with the Twins. He goes to the Mets and boom, 3 great seasons culminating in a Cy Young.

 

Pelfrey throwing mid 90s with sink on a rebuilt arm sounds like a chance for success to me, especially considering he is only 29.

 

Do you think that Pelfrey is going to learn to throw a knuckleball?