Article: What To Do With Mike Pelfrey?

[nicksaviking]

Pelfrey may be tempted to turn down a qualifying offer, but no team will be willing to pay him AND give the Twins a draft pick. How disappointed would we be if the free agent signing the Twins made this offseason was Pelfrey, and it cost them a high pick?

 

He would surely be forced to accept the offer. I think the QO is too much for a #4 starter, but I could care less either way. It's not like the Twins are going to be spending that money elsewhere. Overpaying for a #4 starter I suppose is preferable to what happens here most offseasons. At the very least we'd get to hear Boras cry about how unfair the system is. That would be a bonus.

 

I'd vote no, but only because I still want to hold out some false hope this fall that the Twins would actually spend some money one a front end starter.

[jokin]

Great article Nick, and a hell of a question?

 

The good news is that we will know a lot more in six days. I think it is a given, if he isn't traded and they don't work out an extension that Mr. Ryan will make a qualifying offer and pick up the draft picks if he does sign elsewhere.

 

I don't see the evidence that it is a given Mr Ryan will make a QO for Pelfrey.

[jokin]

13m kept Lohse unsigned for much of the offseason. Sanchez made 15M per season last offseason. Is 6 very solid starts making us this delusional about Pelfrey?

 

I would think Boras would be thrilled to get a 3/$20M plus incentives for Pelfrey.

[Major League Ready]

If he could get $6-9M per season (wild guess) for three years or more, he might pass up the $13 for one year. Who knows how well he throws next year. Next offseason might end up being the peak of his value. He will be 30 all next season, so this offseason might be his only chance to get that 3-4 year bigger money deal. So there's a chance that he would go for years over money for one season.

 

There also nothing stopping the Twins from making the QO and also offer him a 2-3 year deal for less money at the same time. Of course, this is all dependent on Pelf continuing to pitch like he has in June/July. If he doesn't... well, we're probably not getting anything of value in trade anyway.

 

I could be wrong but you have to believe the additional TV revenues are going to drive up prices, especially for SPs. The big IF here is can he perform close to the way he has in June and July for the rest of the season. He will only be 30 and a 3 year offer does seems fairly likely. If his ERA from June to the end of the season, he probably gets 3/24, maybe even more if he really looks sharp the rest of this year.

 

What do you guys think Phil Hughes gets. His ERA was 4.19 in 2012 and 4.33 so far this year. WHIP of 1.26 / 1.29. Roughly 1.6HRs/9.

[Smcginnity]

If you can get a Taylor Rogers, Baxendale, Tyler Duffey, or Matt Summers type return for Pelfrey...you jump on it. Those pitchers are all "potential" 4 or 5 starters in the future with the chance of being as high as a #3 starter...that's what you'd hope for. But, otherwise, sign Pelfrey to a 3 year deal (in my opinion)

[Jeremy Nygaard]

This was all prefaced with "if he continues to trend up". So the six starts aren't making anyone delusional. He could fall on his face at any point which would make this whole thread moot.

 

Jorge DeLaRosa got a 2-yr/$21.5m deal with an $11m player option in the fall of the 2010 (so basically 3 yr/$33.5m) and he really wasn't any better than the pre-surgery Pelfrey. That could be a deal that Pelfrey could get if he continues to pitch well.

 

People like to complain about the Twins spending money (I get that), but when overpaying for someone is suggested, they go equally nuts.

[TheLeviathan]

I have no problem with the Twins "over-spending" - my problem is the thinking behind the QO. If you want to overpay Pelfrey for a few years, fine. I'm not going to take issue there, but you don't do it on a one year qualifying offer. You totally remove any leverage you might have.

 

On the QO - if he's offered 3/20 or 2/16 - the one year 13M still is by far the best offer on the table unless he believes his arm is due to fall off at some very near date. We won't even have to worry about someone giving up a draft pick, he'll sign it before the ink dries.

[Carlos Danger]

They should absolutely look into signing him if the price is reasonable. He has a nice arm. According to FanGraphs he and Gibson average over 92 mph and the rest of the starters fall in around 89 or 90. Not that velocity is everything, but it's nice to have a few guys that can break a pane of glass with their fastball. I'm not sure I'd want anything more than a two year deal though. The TJ guys come with high risk/inconsistency. I seem to recall Liriano looked good for a while after TJ, then sucked and now looks good again. And Philip Humber teased with one good year and then sucked. It seems like an every other year thing...

[beckmt]

I think that 3/20 or 2/16 will be low if he continues to pitch well. If you get a decent offer trade him, else offer him like 3/24 or 27 and see. We need starting pitching the next 2 years and Pelfrey may be the best priced pitcher we can sign without breaking the bank(and I hope they sign one major FA pitcher(need to excite the fan base)).

[twinsnorth49]

We have the $$ available. Lets re-sign Pelfrey now. Secure him through 2015. The worst that can happen is he becomes Nick Blackburn.

 

If that's the worst case scenario, pass

[jokin]

This was all prefaced with "if he continues to trend up". So the six starts aren't making anyone delusional. He could fall on his face at any point which would make this whole thread moot.

 

Jorge DeLaRosa got a 2-yr/$21.5m deal with an $11m player option in the fall of the 2010 (so basically 3 yr/$33.5m) and he really wasn't any better than the pre-surgery Pelfrey. That could be a deal that Pelfrey could get if he continues to pitch well.

 

People like to complain about the Twins spending money (I get that), but when overpaying for someone is suggested, they go equally nuts.

 

de la Rosa Yr/ERA+: '09/108 (@ age 28), '10/110, '11/130, '12/surgery year. '13/150

 

Pelfrey Yr/ERA+: '09/81 (@ age 25), '10/107, '11/78, '12/surgery year, '13/80

 

And de la Rosa's numbers are in Colorado. I would be outraged if Pelfrey got 3/$33M, there is little evidence to suggest that Pelfrey would ever post an ERA+ of 150. And I'm supporting the Twins in exploring the option of re-signing him.

[raindog]

I don't know if I want the Twins to resign a pitcher with a 5.1 career strikeout rate who will be 30 next year. I guess a two year deal is not a big risk, but anything more than that? No way.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

DeLaRosa didn't get that contract based on the stats that you posted.

 

I was looking at WAR in the comparison of the two pitchers. The four years before Pelfrey's surgery (combined WAR of 6.0) and the four years before DeLaRosa's contract was signed (combined WAR of 4.9). That also compares similar-aged seasons.

 

And if you want to talk about the two-year-post-surgery ERA+ of 150 that DeLaRosa has right now (a career high), then we should look forward to the two-year-post-surgery Mike Pelfrey.

 

You could make an argument that DeLaRosa is much more a strikeout pitcher, though. And I couldn't argue against that.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

(It was also around this time last year that I floated the idea that the Twins could make the qualifying offer to Liriano... it would have been insane to do at the time - and there is no way I would have after the season - but he'd look okay in a Twins uniform for $13m right now.)

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

I think they should attempt to re-sign him. There are too many question marks in next year's rotation, so I think it's important to have a couple veterans. Pelfrey is interesting because, while I agree that he's a back end starter, I think he has the ability to pitch like a 3 or better performance wise (for a season). I never really turned on Pelfrey this season because I was aware of the injury and most of his starts still gave us a chance to win. 5IP 4ER was the infamous line.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

(It was also around this time last year that I floated the idea that the Twins could make the qualifying offer to Liriano... it would have been insane to do at the time - and there is no way I would have after the season - but he'd look okay in a Twins uniform for $13m right now.)

 

It would be nice to have him right now for sure. The problem with that though, is that he knows he's making $13m. I swear, give a player a big deal and he doesn't care how he performs (<-unfair generalization, but seemingly true).

[stringer bell]

Pelfrey's improvement and Liriano's career path are examples of "you never know". We are not sure whether Pelf will improve, revert, or plateau. I do believe he can be pretty good and that the Twins need to add pitchers, including some veterans.

[jokin]

DeLaRosa didn't get that contract based on the stats that you posted.

 

I was looking at WAR in the comparison of the two pitchers. The four years before Pelfrey's surgery (combined WAR of 6.0) and the four years before DeLaRosa's contract was signed (combined WAR of 4.9). That also compares similar-aged seasons.

 

And if you want to talk about the two-year-post-surgery ERA+ of 150 that DeLaRosa has right now (a career high), then we should look forward to the two-year-post-surgery Mike Pelfrey.

 

You could make an argument that DeLaRosa is much more a strikeout pitcher, though. And I couldn't argue against that.

 

Not to quibble, but there is nothing in Pelf's career to suggest he will ever post an ERA+ close to 150. (And again, I like Pelf, and hope the Twins consider extending him). And regarding de la Rosa, his 2 best years were in 09 and 10, leading up to the contract that he signed in December of 2010. His combined BR WAR for 2009-11 was 5.2. Pelfrey's combined BR WAR for 09-11 is 2.8. (Admittedly the ages don't line up, but Pelfrey's career has trended down since 2008, his peak year of performance, while de la Rosa is trending up.) (And we both agree that de la Rosa has better stuff). The one thing that might justify Pelfrey getting more money would be the run from 08-11, that demonstrated his workhose nature- where he averaged around 195 IP/yr. This year, Pelfrey is currently on pace for 154 IP. If it can intuited that he will return to 195 IP annually, I still don't see how he commands 3/$33, but I could see the argument that some clubs might make to sign him. Would the Twins be willing to go to 3 years and dollars in that range? Past history makes it seem unlikely.

[jokin]

(It was also around this time last year that I floated the idea that the Twins could make the qualifying offer to Liriano... it would have been insane to do at the time - and there is no way I would have after the season - but he'd look okay in a Twins uniform for $13m right now.)

 

We were all regarded as insane for even thinking just this last year. Regardless, the "good riddance" contingent still got it wrong. A guy with that kind of talent, as exasperating as he was for most of his Twins career, you just can't let go for 2 C players in return.

[The Wise One]

If Pelfrey continues to pitch like he has this month the final results may resemble is 08 and 10 seasons. That puts him at around 2.5 WAR. $13 million wouuld be about right. If he pitches like 09 and 11, then move the decimal point left one position and multiply by 3.1. That number might be closer to what he should get, from another team. It will be interesting to watch a salary drive.

[The Wise One]

there is little evidence to suggest that Pelfrey would ever post an ERA+ of 150.QUOTE]

If I understand the math correctly, an ERA+ would usually fall somewhere near 3. There are very few pitcher that can maintain that level.

Anabel Sanchez for his career is at 114. Look at the payday he got.

[jokin]

If I understand the math correctly, an ERA+ would usually fall somewhere near 3. There are very few pitcher that can maintain that level.

Anabel Sanchez for his career is at 114. Look at the payday he got.

 

You're completely misunderstanding the use of the ERA+ number in context with the discussion. It was hypothesized that Pelfrey could possibly put up post-TJ numbers similar to de la Rosa's ERA+ of 150 that he has posted thus far in 2013. Nothing was discussed about his career ERA+ or what Sanchez got for his career ERA+.

 

The trend of his ERA+ suggested that his contract deal post-2010 was why the Rockies might consider making the deal with de la Rosa as a good bet. Here's de la Rosa's ERA+ trend since 2007: 07/79, 08/95, 09/108, 10/110, 11/130, 13/150. Pelfrey's career is far more checkered and inconsistent, with only 2 years in 6 with an ERA+ over 100.

[Kwak]

He's a free agent--trade him--and if you like what he's done in 2013, make a solid contract offer in the off-season.

[Halsey Hall]

It's nice to see some others appreciate Pelfrey. I liked what I saw in spring training, and knew it would take awhile for him to settle in, as did he, and the Twins. I'm stickin' with he'll be our best pitcher the remainder of the year. As he probably will be next year, so let's get him signed on the dotted line. Do it quick!

[jimbo92107]

Mike Pelfrey has been gradually regaining his pitching form all season. The best thing the Twins could do right now is offer him a 3-year contract at a price they can afford, before he finished the second half with an ERA that puts his future services out of reach.

[The Wise One]

You're completely misunderstanding the use of the ERA+ number in context with the discussion. It was hypothesized that Pelfrey could possibly put up post-TJ numbers similar to de la Rosa's ERA+ of 150 that he has posted thus far in 2013. Nothing was discussed about his career ERA+ or what Sanchez got for his career ERA+.

 

The trend of his ERA+ suggested that his contract deal post-2010 was why the Rockies might consider making the deal with de la Rosa as a good bet. Here's de la Rosa's ERA+ trend since 2007: 07/79, 08/95, 09/108, 10/110, 11/130, 13/150. Pelfrey's career is far more checkered and inconsistent, with only 2 years in 6 with an ERA+ over 100.

 

While the fact might be lost on the fan, I think any baseball GM could realize the odds of Derosa continuing as a 150 ERA+ pitcher are slim. The 130listed was over a very partial season. The information on Sanchez was to provide context at what level career wise a fairly decent pitcher would have for an ERA + at a nearly similar age , just to jar you a little bit to see that the 150 is not sustainable. I'm done with you on this subject.

[Otwins]

Being a Boras client he is not going to sign an extension now. He will hit free agency. I do not think that De la Rosa's contract is a perfect comparison because Colorado has generally had to overpay pitchers to come or stay there. But this is a no brainer. Twins desparately need pitchers. Combine Blackburn's 5+ million with Pelfrey's 4 million that he is making,that is plenty enough to sign him and still leaves the Twins at this years low payroll level.

[iastfan112]

Is Scott Boras extension adverse, yes but there is a good number of his players that have signed extensions before, usually because the player likes his current team and situation(Weaver, Madsen, Andrus). If he'd truly be crushed to leave a deal would get done I have no doubt.

 

As far as trade value goes, Carl Pavano strikes me as a player with a similar situation and results. That netted the Indians a C/borderline C+ prospect who had excellent stats but underwhelming stuff(Yohan Pino). Value in that trade was probably slightly reduced due to it being a waiver trade, cutting the suitors down to 1.

[Sleestax]

The Twins will be spending this offseason...let's get a top pitcher there because we have a ton of middle staff already.

[Sleestax]

After looking at the top Free Agent Pitchers I changed my mind...sign Pelflry for 3 years and 18 milliion. Everybody else is 35 years old plus....