Article: What To Do With Mike Pelfrey?

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2132-What-To-Do-With-Mike-Pelfrey

[Dman]

If Pelfrey continues to pitch this well he would be a fool not to become a FA and see what the market is. If he does indeed like Minnesota then maybe he would give the Twins the opportunity to match his best offer in FA. The guy looks like a solid 4 or 5 starter to me right now.

 

I guess the other question for the Twins might be if they want to clear roster space and go with the younger arms on the farm. Then maybe they are not interested in Pelfrey at all.

[Brandon]

Hey, I just wrote the exact same article 2 days ago in the blog section.

 

Trending up is Mike Pelfry - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum

 

I think if they can't get a B-/ C+ prospect then they should resign him. I am thinking the 2 year 14-16million with option maybe.

[howieramone1406390264]

I agree Nick. I'm guessing Ryan will try to resign him before the end of the season.

[Smcginnity]

I hate to say it...but, unless they can get a great young High-A or AA starting pitching prospect, they should try to resign him. He's been a great leader (from what I've heard/read) and based on history, this is about the time that Tommy John pitchers start to turn it on. Strike while the irons hot. Trade Correia if at all possible though. We have better options in AAA and AA in my opinion.

[tjsyam921]

I don't see Pelfrey taking a discount off of what he could get on the open market. Which is what he would have to do to get resigned in MN. I'm sure his desire to stay in MN is legit but I doubt he'll get a competitive deal from TR. Even if they got a liriano type deal I would have to trade him.

[Smcginnity]

I think if you can get a Baxendale, Taylor Rogers, Matt Summers type player for trading Pelfrey, then you do it. Otherwise, just sit on him and play out the year. If he does well, sign him to a 3-4 year deal.

[Thegrin]

We have the $$ available. Lets re-sign Pelfrey now. Secure him through 2015. The worst that can happen is he becomes Nick Blackburn.

[Dave T]

Ewwww -- don't say the "NB" words around here. Pelfrey is back in business, and I hope Ryan gives him a 3-year deal. Pelfrey regained his value pitching for us; he owes us big time for all those bad starts in April and May when we coulda been a contenda. /jk

[stringer bell]

Velocity is up, sharpness of the pitches is up, he seems to be able to get deeper into games. I think the Twins should try to re-sign Pelfrey to a reasonable extension.

[chuchadoro]

Trade Correia for anything (though I doubt anyone would want to pay his $5m salary next year) and extend Pelfrey with Correia's money plus a few million.

 

Who am I kidding? Cut payroll another $30m and roll with Gibson and a herd of AAAA donkeys. I'm sure the savings will be reinvested when the Twins return to competitiveness, right? Right!?!??

[Smcginnity]

Trade Correia for anything (though I doubt anyone would want to pay his $5m salary next year) and extend Pelfrey with Correia's money plus a few million.

 

Who am I kidding? Cut payroll another $30m and roll with Gibson and a herd of AAAA donkeys. I'm sure the savings will be reinvested when the Twins return to competitiveness, right? Right!?!??

 

If we can get rid of Correia's contract for next year, I'm totally about using it toward Pelfrey. Then just roll with Gibson, Pelfrey, Deduno, (a FA pitcher), and either Hendricks/Meyer/May/Albers/Darnell. That free agent pitcher I would hope would be a Hughes type (potential to be solid but more likely to be a 3.75-4.10 era guy).

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Boras clients tend to not sign extensions. I'd hold on to him, you know Boras wants him to hit the market. So if he keeps trending up, how about a qualifying offer? Just throwing it out there...

[TheLeviathan]

We have the $$ available. Lets re-sign Pelfrey now. Secure him through 2015. The worst that can happen is he becomes Nick Blackburn.

 

Is this supposed to be reassuring? I'm moderately horrified personally.

[chuchadoro]

Boras clients tend to not sign extensions. I'd hold on to him, you know Boras wants him to hit the market. So if he keeps trending up, how about a qualifying offer? Just throwing it out there...

 

Good point about Pelfrey's representation. $13m would be overpaying but the offer would keep payroll/roster flexibility for the team. I don't love the idea but it makes a lot more sense than qualifying the husk of Justin Morneau.

[James]

Boras clients tend to not sign extensions. I'd hold on to him, you know Boras wants him to hit the market. So if he keeps trending up, how about a qualifying offer? Just throwing it out there...

It's an intriguing idea. It would definitely be an overpay, but by how much? If he takes it, so what, it's not like they don't have some money to throw out there. If he doesn't take it, the absolute worst thing is the Twins are able to resign him or another teams signs him and we get the draft picks out of the deal. Would Pelfrey be worth a supplemental draft pick? I would say absolutely.

[Mike Sixel]

I have begun wondering about this myself.....is he actually turning into a good pitcher? It seems that way.....Certainly could do worse than to sign him. I bet he trends up, and becomes a FA. I would not make him a qualifying offer, I don't think. I need to think about that.

[Rosterman]

It was a strange signing by the Twins, not including an option/buyout. So basically, they allowed him to use the team as a tryout for next year.

 

Most Tommy John pitchers do start slow (they use almost a year to come back). Pelfry is showing some life. He may not be much more than a #4-5 starter, but could still easily command $6-7 million a season, or perhaps more. He will probably be looking for a 2-3 year contract.

 

Of course, the Twins could trade him for something, or let him walk in August for something, or just let him walk. If he continues to pitch well, he becomes too expensve for Minnesota. If he falters a bit, he becomes less appetizing for anyone, including Minnesota, unless he goes for a bargain rate.

 

This was a signing that did little for the Twins as a whole. It was a paid tryout for Pelfry.

[jorgenswest]

Boras clients tend to not sign extensions. I'd hold on to him, you know Boras wants him to hit the market. So if he keeps trending up, how about a qualifying offer? Just throwing it out there...

 

Not a bad plan. If he doesn't keep trending up we lose the opportunity to get a C prospect or two. We look elsewhere for the future. If he does trend up, the qualifying offer may be overpaying but it is a one year contract to a player with an injury history. No one year contract will cripple the Twins next year.

[Jham]

Do we know for sure that Pelfrey was offered only single-year contracts? Could he have turned down multiple years in order to go back on the market after proving he was healthy and effective? Seems like a Boras strategy. I am not entirely sure he can keep this up for the rest of this year, let alone another 2 or 3 after getting big money. That said, I like his stuff now that his control is getting there. I would not mind a qualifying offer in FA to get a compensatory pick. Do they still grade out FAs in order to receive picks? And I still think they should look at moving Perkins into the rotation.

[nicksaviking]

"Pelfrey is almost certainly among the commodities Terry Ryan is shopping with the deadline rapidly approaching, but will other teams focus on his steady performance these past couple months or his numbers for the season as a whole, like an ERA that ranks as the sixth-worst in the majors, or a strikeout rate that is fourth-worst?"

 

 

You'd think most GM's would do their homework, so I'd imagine they will focus on what he has done lately while throwing his early season struggles in Ryan's face to drive down the price.

 

But this is a bit of a pickle. Why do the Twins so often seem to be on the awkward side of player and contract predicaments?

[Major League Ready]

It's an intriguing idea. It would definitely be an overpay, but by how much? If he takes it, so what, it's not like they don't have some money to throw out there. If he doesn't take it, the absolute worst thing is the Twins are able to resign him or another teams signs him and we get the draft picks out of the deal. Would Pelfrey be worth a supplemental draft pick? I would say absolutely.

 

Very intriguing option, Jeremy. I agree with James in that it is only a slight overpay. Heck, if he keeps up the pace he has been on lately a qualifying offer would be market rate. This could explain why TR agreed to this one-year deal which is for all practical purposes a rehab. If TR thought of this angle when he signed him, I am impressed.

 

IF, Pelfrey continues to pitch this well or even close to this well, he is going to get a 3-year offer from someone. He is not going to take a 1-year deal and that nets us a supplemental pick. Very nice.

 

Man, I am going to be cheering for Pelfey in every start. The Twins still need more pitching prospects. How great would it be if the Twins could come up with 3 picks in the top 50? I have two words ... College SPs.

[TheLeviathan]

Ok, maybe I'm missing something....qualifying offers are still around 13M for one season right?

 

There is no way in hell he doesn't snatch that up. I'd like to think we could use that 13M much more effectively as part of a long-term deal rather than on Mike Pelfrey.

[roger]

Great article Nick, and a hell of a question?

 

The good news is that we will know a lot more in six days. I think it is a given, if he isn't traded and they don't work out an extension that Mr. Ryan will make a qualifying offer and pick up the draft picks if he does sign elsewhere.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Ok, maybe I'm missing something....qualifying offers are still around 13M for one season right?

 

There is no way in hell he doesn't snatch that up. I'd like to think we could use that 13M much more effectively as part of a long-term deal rather than on Mike Pelfrey.

 

He probably would accept which would keep him off of the market. Not the way Boras wants to go, especially if he's pitching well. That would give Boras some incentive to work out a multi-year deal.

 

It's a risk, sure... but not a huge one. He's very Pavano-like, which would command $10m plus on the open market, especially if he can stay healthy and good for the next two months.

[James]

Ok, maybe I'm missing something....qualifying offers are still around 13M for one season right?

 

There is no way in hell he doesn't snatch that up. I'd like to think we could use that 13M much more effectively as part of a long-term deal rather than on Mike Pelfrey.

If he could get $6-9M per season (wild guess) for three years or more, he might pass up the $13 for one year. Who knows how well he throws next year. Next offseason might end up being the peak of his value. He will be 30 all next season, so this offseason might be his only chance to get that 3-4 year bigger money deal. So there's a chance that he would go for years over money for one season.

 

There also nothing stopping the Twins from making the QO and also offer him a 2-3 year deal for less money at the same time. Of course, this is all dependent on Pelf continuing to pitch like he has in June/July. If he doesn't... well, we're probably not getting anything of value in trade anyway.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Do they still grade out FAs in order to receive picks?

 

Nope. Basically all the teams that lost a guy are lined up from worse to best and get to pick right at the end of the first round. So if he turned it down, Twins would be in line for a pick in the 26-30 range (assuming at least a couple of teams forfeit their pick to sign a guy).

 

So the Twins, who would finish worse than, say, the Yankees, would get a pick higher than the Yankees would get if Cano walked.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

If he could get $6-9M per season (wild guess) for three years or more, he might pass up the $13 for one year.

 

I think that's very much the truth, but the big factor is finding a team that will give up the pick along with it. If Big Pelf could be convinced to not sign until after the draft to get that multi-year contract, the signing team wouldn't lose a pick (and the Twins wouldn't get one back.)

 

Calculated risk no matter how you look at it.

[Kwak]

$13MM for Pelfrey? Ridiculous!

[TheLeviathan]

13m kept Lohse unsigned for much of the offseason. Sanchez made 15M per season last offseason. Is 6 very solid starts making us this delusional about Pelfrey?