Article: 20 Twins Trades: The Pierzynski Bonanza!

[Brad Swanson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=2124-20-Twins-Trades-The-Pierzynski-Bonanza!

[diehardtwinsfan]

Wasnt' Liriano a PTBNL in that trade? It's still one of the most lopsided trades in MLB history... I have to wonder if Sabean still gets twitches whenenver he calls or fields a call from Ryan.

[Brad Swanson]

I don't think so. He was identified specifically in the article that I found, which was published at the time of the trade. Even so, he was quite a find.

[Badsmerf]

I hate this discussion. The Giants were idiots for letting AJ go. If he had stayed there and produced what he did during those years he would be a top 10 catcher during that duration. Joe Nathan was obviously pretty good too. BOOF! and Liriano however, didn't produce much IMO. Liriano had a half season of elite play and another season of good ball. Besides that, he didn't do **** and was a constant headache. He is glorified because of his dominance in a small sample along with potential that he delivered on for one season. BOOF! was a terrible pitcher. His best season he had a lucky 4.22 ERA and was out of the league in 4 years.

 

I will argue up and down about this trade. Sure Nathan was great, so was AJ. Liriano had great talent and his 1.5 great seasons combined with Nathan's career was more valuable than what AJ did. I just hate this argument as a feather in the cap of Terry Ryan. It is more a representation of how misguided the Giants were than Terry Ryan's ability to manage a team. Without that trade, he would not be the GM right now.

[Rosterman]

It was a great trade....but......

 

Nathan wasn't considered a closer. If he was, the Giants would've kept him and made him a closer. He was in pitching staff limbo. He was given the opportunity with Minnesota and shined. It seemed the trade got marks because the Giants were in need of a closer shortly after.

 

Boof was actually considered a possible workhorse, mid-rotation guy.

 

Liriano....ptbnl...a youngster.

 

A.J. left the Giants because he didn't produce and was in arbitration and the Giants weren't willing to overpay, considering the season he showed them. One of the issues of baseball, you can't sign a player for as cheap as you might like (shade of David Ortiz) so some otehr team can sign him for what you are willing to pay him.

 

I always liked A.J. He calls a decent game. Puts the ball in play. Is hot and cold at throwing out runners. If Mauer wasn't in the wings...but with what happened to Mauer and we were forced to play Henry Blanco for most of a season....

 

But, yes, Nathan turned out to be one fo the best closers of the decade and is still going strong......

[Brad Swanson]

I don't know, if Ryan can't get credit for the good trades, then I guess he just can't win. Nathan may not have been a closer with the Giants, but the Twins clearly saw something in him, as they instituted him as the closer immediately and he saved 44 games in 2004.

 

The quote I shared from Terry Ryan states that they specifically liked what they saw in Liriano in the instructional leagues. Sure, there was luck involved, but the Twins organization deserves credit for this one. That's even considering that Liriano's breakout was derailed by a major injury.

 

The Twins sold from a position of strength. Even if they had only gotten Nathan, it would have been a smart trade. There was nowhere to play AJ and he was a below average offensive player from 2004-2011.

[ThePuck]

Nathan was converted to reliever the year before we got him and he excelled in that role. I have no doubt he would have taken over for Worrell if he had stayed in San Fran but they weren't going to hand him the closer reigns his first year as a reliever before they saw what he could do.

[TheLeviathan]

It was a career defining, excellent deal, but I think it is fair to say over time that it lost some of its luster. Still a damn fine deal.

[ThePuck]

It was a career defining, excellent deal, but I think it is fair to say over time that it lost some of its luster. Still a damn fine deal.

 

It was a great deal, and there wasn't too much pressure since he had Mauer to replace AJ anyway, so even better. It was also a long time ago.

[diehardtwinsfan]

Of course there was luck involved, though I think I'd rather call it risk than luck. The Giants would have let these guys go had they known how it would have turned out. Ryan and company did their homework and did it well. Nathan might not have developed and Liriano might have gotten hurt, that's how trades work.

[Badsmerf]

I don't know, if Ryan can't get credit for the good trades, then I guess he just can't win.

Missed my point. I don't feel like this trade was as amazing as others. Ryan and his scouts identified some guys that had talent. It makes me wonder where these guys went, because he hasn't been able to identify it since. The trade worked out, and has been easily his best trade. That trade alone doesn't excuse the poor decisions and lack of effort he's shown since. I'm a hater, can't help it.

[Willihammer]

Hypothetical question.

 

This will be good.

 

Instead of dealing AJ, the Twins kept him and traded Mauer instead. The No. 1 prospect in baseball 2 years running.

 

What did they get in return.

[Brad Swanson]

Hypothetical question.

 

This will be good.

 

Instead of dealing AJ, the Twins kept him and traded Mauer instead. The No. 1 prospect in baseball 2 years running.

 

What did they get in return.

 

That's a delicious scenario.

 

Tim Hudson? It kind of seems like the type of trade Billy Beane would make.

[Danchat]

I don't know, if Ryan can't get credit for the good trades, then I guess he just can't win. Nathan may not have been a closer with the Giants, but the Twins clearly saw something in him, as they instituted him as the closer immediately and he saved 44 games in 2004.

 

The quote I shared from Terry Ryan states that they specifically liked what they saw in Liriano in the instructional leagues. Sure, there was luck involved, but the Twins organization deserves credit for this one. That's even considering that Liriano's breakout was derailed by a major injury.

 

The Twins sold from a position of strength. Even if they had only gotten Nathan, it would have been a smart trade. There was nowhere to play AJ and he was a below average offensive player from 2004-2011.

 

Yeah, it was a great trade, but we haven't had a great trade since then. Most of them have been meh..... or horrible.

[Brad Swanson]

Yeah, it was a great trade, but we haven't had a great trade since then. Most of them have been meh..... or horrible.

 

I've got ten more trades lined up to write about. I'd say that three or four can be considered positive. One or two were not bad. A couple aren't great and a few are simply awful. Quite a few elicit rage too. It's fun.

[Badsmerf]

Hypothetical question.

 

This will be good.

 

Instead of dealing AJ, the Twins kept him and traded Mauer instead. The No. 1 prospect in baseball 2 years running.

 

What did they get in return.

That is so hard to answer. To SF I'd say Matt Cain, Joe Nathan and Liriano (I would have done that deal instead). That might have actually produced some playoff wins with Matt Cain. To ATL (would be right before they got McCann) Wainwright, Francoeur. And those would be the only two I could make sense.

 

It would be difficult to trade Joe for what he would be worth since he hadn't actually had any success yet. So far he's had a HOF career and I doubt the Twins would have received that kind of value for him.

[Willihammer]

That's a delicious scenario.

 

Tim Hudson? It kind of seems like the type of trade Billy Beane would make.

 

Yeah I could see that.

 

Actually, for sake of argument, I'll run with it. Because in a way is the nightmare scenario: Trade a top prospect on the doorstep of a HoF career for a guy who never again regains the form of his thrilling days of yesteryear.

 

Obviously everything would be different. Mauer's career would have been different. Maybe he never gets bilateral leg weakness. Maybe Pierzynski dyes his hair black instead of going with blonde tips. But to keep it simple, assume that nothing would have gone differently production-wise and...

 

Who would have won the WAR?

 

bb-Ref WAR: 28.9 to 43.5 - A's wins the WAR

Fangraphs WAR: 40.9 to 43.0 - A's wins the WAR

 

So even in a borderline nightmare scenario like this, the trade still could have worked out fairly close to being a wash.

 

--

 

Other guys traded the offseason following 2003:

 

Javier Vazquez

Alfonso Soriano

Arod

Livan Hernandez

Carlos Guillen

Billy Wagner

Nick Johnson

Randy Choate

Juan Rivera

Maicer Izturis

Chris Reitsma

 

edit: I should clarify, those are the combined WAR totals of Hudson + Pierzynski versus Mauer over 2004-2013.

 

Strictly judging the trade in terms of Mauer's WAR versus Hudson, its a lot more lopsided

 

bb-ref: 14.6 to 43.5

fangraphs: 25.5 to 43.0

[Brad Swanson]

Yeah I could see that.

 

Actually, for sake of argument, I'll run with it. Because in a way is the nightmare scenario: Trade a top prospect on the doorstep of a HoF career for a guy who never again regains the form of his thrilling days of yesteryear.

 

Obviously everything would be different. Mauer's career would have been different. Maybe he never gets bilateral leg weakness. Maybe Pierzynski dyes his hair black instead of going with blonde tips. But to keep it simple, assume that nothing would have gone differently production-wise and...

 

Who would have won the WAR?

 

bb-Ref WAR: 28.9 to 43.5 - A's wins the WAR

Fangraphs WAR: 40.9 to 43.0 - A's wins the WAR

 

So even in a borderline nightmare scenario like this, the trade still could have worked out fairly close to being a wash.

 

--

 

Other guys traded the offseason following 2003:

 

Javier Vazquez

Alfonso Soriano

Arod

Livan Hernandez

Carlos Guillen

Billy Wagner

Nick Johnson

Randy Choate

Juan Rivera

Maicer Izturis

Chris Reitsma

 

edit: I should clarify, those are the combined WAR totals of Hudson + Pierzynski versus Mauer over 2004-2013.

 

Strictly judging the trade in terms of Mauer's WAR versus Hudson, its a lot more lopsided

 

bb-ref: 14.6 to 43.5

fangraphs: 25.5 to 43.0

 

The 2004 Twins would have been really interesting with Hudson and Pierzynski instead of Mauer. Mauer got hurt, so AJ would have been a huge upgrade over Henry Blanco. Hudson would have started instead of the combo of Terry Mullholland and Seth Greisinger, who combined for an ERA around 5.5. That would almost have to lead to a few more wins.

 

A few extra wins and the Twins host the Red Sox in the first round instead of going to New York. Boston probably still wins that series with Schilling and Pedro.