Article: Minnesota Twins Prepare For Trade Deadline

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Former Twin Jesse Crain won't make an appearance before the trade deadline. Crain was the only other All Star RPer on the market. The already weak RPer market just got weaker. Twins need to take note from the Soria debacle a few years ago and move Perkins. Don't pull a Royals!

[drjim]

I think Perkins would still bring back the best return in prospects, it possibly would just be less than we would hope for. Regardless of the contract Perkins is still the best reliever we have by far and as such would command the largest return when compared to Burton, Fien, etc....

 

I wasn't clear in my post. I definitely agree Perkins would get the most back. He is elite. But he also has great value to the Twins going forward.

 

My point was that other relievers of lesser value would get something back more excess of their value relative to Perkins.

[StormJH1]

I wasn't clear in my post. I definitely agree Perkins would get the most back. He is elite. But he also has great value to the Twins going forward.

 

My point was that other relievers of lesser value would get something back more excess of their value relative to Perkins.

 

There's probably no question that Perkins would get the most back now of the "candidates". If the Orioles would give up their #5 prospect for a 2-month rental of K-Rod, you would THINK Perkins would have more value than that because of his contract, age, and recent success.

 

But I don't think they move him. I really don't think they move Morneau either. The guys who get moved at the deadline are never the "one of us" guys or players beloved by the fans. It's guys like Castillo or Liriano. Even Torii Hunter, who was beloved by most fans, but a problematic teammate/personality at times, wasn't moved.

 

I just don't think they want to explain to the casual baseball family from Blaine why they traded Justin Morneau instead of trying to resign him, and all they got in return was the equivalent of Eduardo Escobar.

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I wasn't clear in my post. I definitely agree Perkins would get the most back. He is elite. But he also has great value to the Twins going forward.

 

My point was that other relievers of lesser value would get something back more excess of their value relative to Perkins.

 

I think this is a valid point. It is almost impossible to get equal value for any player when not only their skill but contract comes into play. Especially RPers.

 

As I say this though I believe we could get a great package for Perkins. Because of the extra wild cards there are very few sellers and a bunch of buyers. Add in that this is one of the weakest trade deadline RPer groups in a while, especially now that Crain isn't coming back before the deadline, with a ton of teams looking for bullpen arms and you have a chance for a bidding war.

[Mike Sixel]

They better be more worried about having good players than selling a couple of tickets this year. I will wonder about Ryan's plan if they do not make trades.

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They better be more worried about having good players than selling a couple of tickets this year. I will wonder about Ryan's plan if they do not make trades.

 

Completely agree. While fans love their star players they love winning more.

[Brock Beauchamp]

On the flip side, it's rare to have a proven commodity with a team friendly contract who is on the tradeing block. Usually the response is "Well, thhis is a great player today, but I have to pay this play for two years more, and next year is never a cetrainty". Longer contracts are a risk that GMs take, not go into because they want to.

 

Perkins is signed for about $5m a year. That's basically nothing by MLB standards. The risk in his contract "going south" are virtually nil because it won't hurt even the cheapest of teams too badly.

[drjim]

They better be more worried about having good players than selling a couple of tickets this year. I will wonder about Ryan's plan if they do not make trades.

 

I agree selling tickets should be a nonfactor in trades (and I doubt it is). That said I still think it is quite reasonable to expect to take a leap next year so any trade should have that in mind. The only player of note that definitely won't be back next year is Morneau and he has very limited value, so there you go.

[nicksaviking]

This situation is pretty uncommon in several ways, I think.

 

It is. Top end closers don't generally get moved mid season, and certainly not with a great contract. There may not be a precedent for it. Which brings me back to a criticism I've had in the past, Ryan is often passive and lets the market dictate his decisions instead of having his decisions impact the market. This is his chance, HE can set the parameters of future deals of similar stature.

 

The Cubs have been making bold moves that negatively affect the Twins, time for Ryan to be the one making bold moves. Don't sit on your hands and wait and see if someone will blow you away. Work the phones and drum up a market reminding everyone you have a commodity that no one else does. Be proactive and set the bar and set it high. If you can't get any strong offers, fine, keep him. But give it a shot and put yourself out there.

 

According to the interview with Jack Goin, that isn't happening.

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It is. Top end closers don't generally get moved mid season, and certainly not with a great contract. There may not be a precedent for it. Which brings me back to a criticism I've had in the past, Ryan is often passive and lets the market dictate his decisions instead of having his decisions impact the market. This is his chance, HE can set the parameters of future deals of similar stature.

 

The Cubs have been making bold moves that negatively affect the Twins, time for Ryan to be the one making bold moves. Don't sit on your hands and wait and see if someone will blow you away. Work the phones and drum up a market reminding everyone you have a commodity that no one else does. Be proactive and set the bar and set it high. If you can't get any strong offers, fine, keep him. But give it a shot and put yourself out there.

 

According to the interview with Jack Goin, that isn't happening.

 

It would definitely be nice to see our front office be aggressive but they are so tight lipped that even if they were being aggressive we wouldn't know. Every trade deadline, winter meeting, and off season in general it gets frustrating to be left in the dark. Don't get me wrong, I don't blame them for doing it, because it is smart. That doesn't mean I have to like it! /whine

[jorgenswest]

If a Perkins remains a Twin, will we assume that Ryan did not get the unprecedented offer for a reliever he is seeking or will we criticize Ryan for not making a move?

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If a Perkins remains a Twin, will we assume that Ryan did not get the unprecedented offer for a reliever he is seeking or will we criticize Ryan for not making a move?

 

Unprecedented might be a little much. 3 years ago there was another young, cheap, all star shut down closer in the AL Central that teams were calling about. Soria. Yankees and several other teams made solid offers but we told no because "the Royals were close to contention." Because I doubt Ryan will trade Perkins I'm guessing this will become the exact same situation.

[diehardtwinsfan]

My guess is that if Perkins remains here, no one came to TR with two top 100 prospects which were either pitchers or short stops.

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My guess is that if Perkins remains here, no one came to TR with two top 100 prospects which were either pitchers or short stops.

 

I think fans are the ones focused on only pitchers/ss. While I'm sure his main target is a pitcher I'm sure if he was offered a deal headlined with something else he would listen.

[jorgenswest]

Unprecedented might be a little much. 3 years ago there was another young, cheap, all star shut down closer in the AL Central that teams were calling about. Soria. Yankees and several other teams made solid offers but we told no because "the Royals were close to contention." Because I doubt Ryan will trade Perkins I'm guessing this will become the exact same situation.

 

To go with the rumors about Soria. In the summer of 2010, he had a no trade clause that blocked a trade to the Yankees (as well as 5 other top teams with established closers). His options vested at 55 games finished which he would not achieve unless he was a closer. Rumors in the winter following that season resurfaced and at that time Soria said he was now open to dropping the no trade clause. Of course, he would drop it if given enough compensation which would make his contract not so friendly.

 

The Yankees can go ahead and put out rumors of an offer Montero on the condition the Royals can get Soria to drop his no trade clause with knowledge that Soria is not going to do it. When Soria wants more compensation, the Yankees counter by saying that decreases his value and they drop their trade offer accordingly.

 

When looking for comps for Perkins, we should look at actual trades and not rumors.

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To go with the rumors about Soria. In the summer of 2010, he had a no trade clause that blocked a trade to the Yankees (as well as 5 other top teams with established closers). His options vested at 55 games finished which he would not achieve unless he was a closer. Rumors in the winter following that season resurfaced and at that time Soria said he was now open to dropping the no trade clause. Of course, he would drop it if given enough compensation which would make his contract not so friendly.

 

The Yankees can go ahead and put out rumors of an offer Montero on the condition the Royals can get Soria to drop his no trade clause with knowledge that Soria is not going to do it. When Soria wants more compensation, the Yankees counter by saying that decreases his value and they drop their trade offer accordingly.

 

When looking for comps for Perkins, we should look at actual trades and not rumors.

 

Where did you find this? Here is a quote from Soria himself about his no trade clause:

"I didn't put it there, my agent did, as a strategy,"

Soria said.

"But if the Royals decide to trade me to New York I would gladly go to play with the Yankees or any other team... I repeat, I would not block a trade to the Yankees. I like to play baseball and I would play with any team."

The only thing Soria said he would block is moving to the rotation. I havent seen any reports asking for more money to wave his no trade clause but it's not like that would stop the Yankees. It's the Yankees. All reports I have seen say the Yankees dangled a package built around Montero, who at the time was an elite prospect, but Moore said no.

 

Now, to the point about actual trades there are none close. All the examples that actually happened are not similar to Perkins in any way so why would we use them? While the Soria trade didn't happen at least it is similar.

[MichiganTwins]

I am glad the Twins are preparing for the trade deadline. Someone should tell them they are able to make a trade too.

[TheLeviathan]

If a Perkins remains a Twin, will we assume that Ryan did not get the unprecedented offer for a reliever he is seeking or will we criticize Ryan for not making a move?

 

Guess that depends on a combination of what Ryan says afterwards and what the rumor mills kick out about it and trying to put the pieces together.

 

Personally, I don't think they are doing anything aggressive here, so I am fully expecting him to stay.

[LaBombo]

Guess that depends on a combination of what Ryan says afterwards and what the rumor mills kick out about it and trying to put the pieces together.

 

Personally, I don't think they are doing anything aggressive here, so I am fully expecting him to stay.

 

That sounds about right, but he surprised lots of folks, including me, with the Revere trade. Two different situations, just mean they might pull another rabbit of the hat. Will be very happy to have Perk here another season if they don't.

[70charger]

If a Perkins remains a Twin, will we assume that Ryan did not get the unprecedented offer for a reliever he is seeking or will we criticize Ryan for not making a move?

 

Let's be honest.

 

Both.

[Oxtung]

If a Perkins remains a Twin, will we assume that Ryan did not get the unprecedented offer for a reliever he is seeking or will we criticize Ryan for not making a move?

 

Since a top 100 prospect was the price for KRod, and he is a rental, we can reasonably expect Perkins will bring back more than that. Since I don't think the Twins will be even marginally competitive until 2015 and I don't think they will win the division until 2016 at the earliest I will be disappointed if Perkins is not moved.

[jorgenswest]

Since a top 100 prospect was the price for KRod, and he is a rental, we can reasonably expect Perkins will bring back more than that. Since I don't think the Twins will be even marginally competitive until 2015 and I don't think they will win the division until 2016 at the earliest I will be disappointed if Perkins is not moved.

 

Delmonico was given B- by Sickels and not in Baseball America's or MLBs top 100 entering the season. He was in the Oriole top 10 but BBA said their system had no depth beyond Gausman and Bundy. JJ Cooper said earlier this month when asked in a chat that he is higher on him than the scouts he talked with. He thinks he might be a borderline top 100.

 

I doubt he would be in Minnesota's top 10. A player with a similar profile in the Twins organization would be Travis Harrison. Good bat. Questionable defense. Same grade from Sickels.

 

Yes. We can expect more for Perkins. The Twins need to move the bar in two ways. They need a true top 100. They need that player to play a key role - starting pitcher or shortstop.

 

I am not sure it reasonable to expect that return for any reliever. I hope Ryan holds out for it.

[Oxtung]

Delmonico was given B- by Sickels and not in Baseball America's or MLBs top 100 entering the season. He was in the Oriole top 10 but BBA said their system had no depth beyond Gausman and Bundy. JJ Cooper said earlier this month when asked in a chat that he is higher on him than the scouts he talked with. He thinks he might be a borderline top 100.

 

I doubt he would be in Minnesota's top 10. A player with a similar profile in the Twins organization would be Travis Harrison. Good bat. Questionable defense. Same grade from Sickels.

 

Yes. We can expect more for Perkins. The Twins need to move the bar in two ways. They need a true top 100. They need that player to play a key role - starting pitcher or shortstop.

 

I am not sure it reasonable to expect that return for any reliever. I hope Ryan holds out for it.

 

I stand corrected. I thought I remembered him making one or two of the mid-season lists but he didn't. Regardless, my viewpoint hasn't changed, Perkins will never bring back more than he will right now and since I don't think the Twins will be competitive in the next few years I think he should be moved for the best offer available.

[TheLeviathan]

Considering in another thread AAAA filler was all to be expected for most relievers a Harrison-type seems pretty good for an old reliever. The deadline is the time to make this move and what is out there now will be the best we can get. Whatever that may be, hopefully enough to move him.

[Mike Sixel]

I agree selling tickets should be a nonfactor in trades (and I doubt it is). That said I still think it is quite reasonable to expect to take a leap next year so any trade should have that in mind. The only player of note that definitely won't be back next year is Morneau and he has very limited value, so there you go.

 

I truly mean this, I love your optimism about next year. Wish I shared it.

[Top Gun]

The Twins could of got Alfonso Soriano for Blackburn and only 5m for next season better than Poffy. Enough said!

[Top Gun]

ESPN's Buster Olney reports that the Cubs will pay roughly $17.7 million of the approximately $24.5 million left on Alfonso Soriano's contract.

 

The Yankees will be on the hook for about $1.8 million this year and $5 million next year. The trade sending the veteran outfielder back to the Bronx only needs commissioner Bud Selig's approval at this point. The Cubs are expected to receive pitching prospect Corey Black in the deal.

Related: Yankees

 

Source: Buster Olney on Twitte

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think fans are the ones focused on only pitchers/ss. While I'm sure his main target is a pitcher I'm sure if he was offered a deal headlined with something else he would listen.

 

Agreed, but given the org needs, pitching and middle infield are without a doubt what's needed.

[Kwak]

Twins needs: ...and anybody who can hit!

[jorgenswest]

Considering in another thread AAAA filler was all to be expected for most relievers a Harrison-type seems pretty good for an old reliever. The deadline is the time to make this move and what is out there now will be the best we can get. Whatever that may be, hopefully enough to move him.

 

Are you suggesting that the Orioles really wanted Duensing but had to settle Rodriguez or at least that they are comparable value?

 

The most similar thing about these two guys is their "old" age at 30 and 31. Late inning relievers with an ERA around 1 have some value (see Mike Adams). LOOGYs with an ERA over 4 do not.