Braves eyeing Twins relievers

[Parker Hageman]

According to a tweet by the Atlanta Journal Constitution’s David O’Brien, the Braves were at Target Field over the weekend, eyeballing the Twins’ relievers for a potential trade. Naturally, the Braves would want Glen Perkins but O’Brien suggests that Brian Duensing is viewed as a viable alternative.

 

In chatting with Duensing after Saturday’s game, Duensing said that he is beginning to feel more comfortable with his full-time role in the bullpen. He still prepares exclusively for facing left-handed opponents despite seeing a near 50/50 split between lefties (84) and righties (79). His peripheral splits show that he is much better against lefties, which he has a 20-to-5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, compared to righties, where he has a 10-to-12 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

 

Duensing would not command as much in return as Perkins, however, Duensing is under club control until 2016 and, if deployed properly, would be a very good left-handed only reliever.

[jorgenswest]

Duensing for a C prospect would be a good deal. I am not certain the Twins would make a tender offer.

[Monkeypaws]

Kind of like with Morneau - why trade him if the return has little to no chance of ever being as good as Duensing is now?

[pab]

Kind of like with Morneau - why trade him if the return has little to no chance of ever being as good as Duensing is now?

 

The cases are a bit different since Duensing is under team control for 3 more years and Morneau is a FA in 3 months.

 

But in both cases, the return would have a better chance (however minimal) of playing a meaningful role on the next contending Twins team than 3 months of Morneau or 3 years of Duensing.

[nicksaviking]

Kind of like with Morneau - why trade him if the return has little to no chance of ever being as good as Duensing is now?

 

Part of it may be that the Twins like Tonkin or other relievers but need to clear space. Duensing is due for an arbitration raise and I'd think the Twins would still pay it, but going forward it might get pricey and they may send him the way of Jose Mijares.

 

Plus, the Braves scout pitching better than most teams, their C prospects still throw hard and have some potential.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I personally would target a hard throwing reliever getting good results in AA/A+ for Duensing or a number 3 type SP.

[TheLeviathan]

I personally would target a hard throwing reliever getting good results in AA/A+ for Duensing or a number 3 type SP.

 

Cody Martin maybe?

[nicksaviking]

Cody Martin maybe?

 

Sold.

[Oxtung]

Cody Martin maybe?

 

I'm actually not very intrigued by the Braves pitching prospects (excluding some of their more highly thought of guys that we wouldn't have a shot at anyways). Cody Martin and Juan Jaime are the only ones that are interesting to me.

[jorgenswest]

I don't think the Braves will need to part with Cody Martin to get a reliever. Far better relievers than Duensing have been traded the last three years and did not get a Martin level return.

 

If that kind of return is the expectation, Ryan is sure to disappoint.

 

Juan Jaime, on the other hand, will be 26 next week and has missed two years due to Tommy John. His upside is his great fastball and k-rate. His downside is that he is probably one more injury from never playing in the majors. The Twins might be able to get him in a package for Burton or Duensing. It really depends on how the Braves view his health and progress. If they do trade him, they probably are concerned.

[TheLeviathan]

Juan Jaime, on the other hand

 

Most rankings I've seen have these two about the same level in the organization. I guess I'm confused why he's so much more likely to be available. I'd have Martin or Jaime about the same level as targets for us.

[StormJH1]

I'm almost baffled that the Twins could get a C-level prospect for Duensing, but let's make that trade yesterday if it's there. Duensing is 30 years old, was awful as a starter, and isn't much better as a reliever. I've already advocated shifting Diamond to the bullpen with the hopes he turns into a Perkins, but it's 20 times more likely he pitches like Duensing out of the pen.

[jorgenswest]

Most rankings I've seen have these two about the same level in the organization. I guess I'm confused why he's so much more likely to be available. I'd have Martin or Jaime about the same level as targets for us.

 

You could be correct. I know Sickels had Martin as number 10 Braves and a B-. He has been on Baseball America's prospects on the rise this year as well as Fangraphs fringe 5. I know less and have read less about Jaime. If Jaime has risen from his injury to the same level as Martin then acquiring him would be unreasonable also. Jaime's health risk and age may make him more attainable.

[StormJH1]

I'm almost baffled that the Twins could get a C-level prospect for Duensing, but let's make that trade yesterday if it's there. Duensing is 30 years old, was awful as a starter, and isn't much better as a reliever. I've already advocated shifting Diamond to the bullpen with the hopes he turns into a Perkins, but it's 20 times more likely he pitches like Duensing out of the pen.

[TheLeviathan]

You could be correct. I know Sickels had Martin as number 10 Braves and a B-.

 

Neither of them make the BA top 10, MLB has them 9-10 with Martin at 10. Prior to the exodus of guys like Teheran and Minor they were closer to the 12-15 range. I think that's about right for a solid bullpen arm at the deadline.

[jorgenswest]

Neither of them make the BA top 10, MLB has them 9-10 with Martin at 10. Prior to the exodus of guys like Teheran and Minor they were closer to the 12-15 range. I think that's about right for a solid bullpen arm at the deadline.

 

I found 5 trades (and a waiver claim) over the last 3 summers involving a left handed reliever as the primary target. I am not sure Duensing is a great match as all others had ERAs under 4.

 

 

Brain Fuentes for (PTBNL) Loek Van Mil- 25, AA, 6.37 ERA

 

 

Javier Lopez for John Bowker and Joe Martinez – both 27 year old AAAA players

 

 

Will Ohmann for Rick Vandenhurk 25, AAA starter, 4.68 ERA

 

 

Craig Breslow for Matt Albers(29) and Scot Posednik(36) – major leaguers

 

 

JC Romero for Carlos Rojas – 28, AA, utility infielder

 

 

Jose Mijares -waived by Royals and picked up by Giants.

 

 

There were no prospects dealt in these trades. A few were already replacement AAAA players. Van Mil and Vandenhurk were 25. Vandenhurk had started 11 games for the Marlin the previous season.

 

There was no one near Martin's prospect status. He is younger than any of them and he is pitching far better in the minors.

 

This is the kind if return we should expect.

[TheLeviathan]

This is the kind if return we should expect.

 

None of these situations involve a relief pitcher with more than a year of team control left. All of these guys were expiring contracts. I'm not sure you found any parallels here.

Brad Lincoln or even Brad Ziegler seem to be better comps. I'd say Duensing is somewhere between those two levels.

[jorgenswest]

None of these situations involve a relief pitcher with more than a year of team control left. All of these guys were expiring contracts. I'm not sure you found any parallels here.

Brad Lincoln or even Brad Ziegler seem to be better comps. I'd say Duensing is somewhere between those two levels.

 

Brad Lincoln throws right handed, was 27, was once a top prospect and had an ERA under 3 with more strike outs than innings pitched at the time of the trade. Ziegler, also right handed, had an ERA of 2.39 with a career ERA to match and was a late inning reliever.

 

We are very far apart on where we see Duensing's value. I hope you are correct.

[TheLeviathan]

I don't think I was clear:

 

Lincoln/Ziegler level

Duensing Level

Scrubs/Two month rentals level you posted

 

I think you've consistently undersold how valuable relievers with team control can be at the deadline. Martin might be a bit high to shoot, but Duensing will most certainly land more than AAAA filler.

[jorgenswest]

I got the contract part. In looking at trades, I don't think it plays a very large factor at the deadline. They spoke about this on the Gleeman/Geek podcast.

 

Teams want the best guy they can get for the next two months as cheaply as they can get them. In the winter they can fill the hole remaining. Zeigler and Lincoln were having very good seasons and got a fair return.

 

We disagree. I hope you are right and we get a Martin level return.

[TheLeviathan]

Ok...I see that you are semi-acknowledging my points but then your further thoughts undermine that. I brought up ¡iegler and Lincoln because they weren't the aging, soon to be scrubs you compared him to. I acknowledge Duensing is not at their level. But I don't think Martin is on their level of return either.

 

Whether it is MArtin or someone else in return, I can assure you an established MLB reliever with a previous record of success, who is left handed, and has team control will land more than garbage. we can disagree about what kind of non-garbage, but all of your comps were just not appropriate.

[jorgenswest]

Ok...I see that you are semi-acknowledging my points but then your further thoughts undermine that. I brought up ¡iegler and Lincoln because they weren't the aging, soon to be scrubs you compared him to. I acknowledge Duensing is not at their level. But I don't think Martin is on their level of return either.

 

Whether it is MArtin or someone else in return, I can assure you an established MLB reliever with a previous record of success, who is left handed, and has team control will land more than garbage. we can disagree about what kind of non-garbage, but all of your comps were just not appropriate.

 

i thought I was done, but I don't like it when guys are called garbage.

 

Duensing - 4.56 ERA 30/17 in 35.1 age 30 (4.25 career ERA)

 

My comps... All left handed

 

Breslow - 2.79 ERA 42k/17bb in 43.1 innings age 31 at trade (2.99 career ERA)

Fuentes - 3.52. 39/18 in 38.1 age 34 (3.62)

Lopez - 2.79 22/18 in 38.2 age 32 (3.70)

Romero playing in minors when traded - 35

Mijares - 2.56 37/13 in 38.1 age 27 (2.92)

 

My mistake on Romero.

[TheLeviathan]

My mistake on Romero.

 

You're right, garbage was strong. But none of those players offered any long term control. When you're talking about relievers, that has some significant value. They'll get more than AAAA filler, whether it as good as I'd like to see or not remains to be seen. (Probably not, but I'm hopeful)