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Article: Grading Last Year's Free Agent Pitching Market


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I appreciate your last two points but I would add two facts.

 

The Twins have spent but it was on more bit guys. Mof course they should (and will) continue to do that.

 

Correia, while not sexy, is a top five pitcher from last years free agents. They did something productive in that realm.

 

What the Twins need is not better free agent signings, though one or two solid signings would be welcome, but in house improvement and the emergence of prospects to be competitive.

 

According to ERA+, which adjusts ERA's for league and ballpark, Correia is actually tied for #8th. He also has the 8th in IP from last years FA crop.

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How is that different for any other team? We're not a small market team anymore, we are above average in revenues, play in a ballpark pitchers should want to pitch in, and have a very recognizable all-star on the roster.

 

I realize a lot of things go into improving a ballclub, but I think Terry Ryan is a very competent man at his position. The bar of "improve 2012's pitching, particularly starting pitching" is an incredibly low bar for success.

 

And yet we failed it. I don't believe Ryan should be held unaccountable to that no matter what factors may have influenced things. Those are ever-present factors no matter what is happening and if we're going to excuse his failures for those, why not excuse his successes by luck, good fortune, or any number of things out of his control as well?

 

To me, it starts to boil down that Ryan is utterly irrelevant - so why defend him at all then? I guess I find the GM position more influential than to be constantly excused for successes or mistakes.

Your position on Ryan is softening? Couldn't have been much over a week ago you said he was pathologically adverse to risk.
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You're position on Ryan is softening? Couldn't have been much over a week ago you said he was pathologically adverse to risk?

 

I'm sorry, how did you miss the rest of that? In that very same chunk I called him very competent and influential. I believe his fear of risk is very influential in our decisions. (And by far my biggest complaint about him)

 

What you highlighted was the notion that if outside factors excuse Ryan and if we were defeated before the offseason even began....how is Ryan even relevant? Some of you defending the failed offseason have basically suggested he doesn't matter and that nothing he could have done would've fixed a brutally awful pitching staff. I can't possibly agree that he's irrelevant, but that's what we've stooped to at times to take away accountability.

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According to ERA+, which adjusts ERA's for league and ballpark, Correia is actually tied for #8th. He also has the 8th in IP from last years FA crop.

 

Wow, that more than anything else makes me believe that last year's FA group was pretty weak. I don't think he's been terrible, but...well...8th? In two important categories? Good on him, I guess.

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You use hindsight here, but there are other problems with the argument. For example, there are more than a dozen pitchers in the list that would have improved the Twins rotation, not just three. Some of us point out that fact repeatedly but it seems to get ignored.

 

Also, if you're only going to go for low cost starters, you better be better at it than everyone else, but people are using it as an excuse as if it's not his fault that TR limited himself and then wasn't able to improve the rotation.

 

Finally, what's silly is people saying we can't be critical of a GM who said starting pitching is the Twins #1 need and that we want to be competitive in September, but we're out of it in July and have the worst rotation in baseball. Seriously?

 

I'm not sure you really know how hindsight works. Saying the Twins should have signed these guys that worked out is hindsight. Saying that you knew that two guys that should have been counted on would be dreadfully awful is hindsight. Saying that the top prospect would be dreadfully awful instead of stabilizing a rotation spot is hindsight. Saying that someone could have targeted guys (done in this thread) like Colon, Feldman, Villanueva or Liriano is hindsight. Liriano had his supporters but I think it was pretty clear that these two were going other directions.

 

The Twins choices in FA:

Go big - Would have worked out well but nobody should have had expectations that the Twins were going this direction. I actually supported going after Greinke since he is actually legitimately good compared to the 40-80M options. Sanchez is not the same pitcher that he was in Miami.

 

The 40-80M options - only Jackson here and I thought he was a terrible option

 

Go after guys that weren't coming here - Kuroda (resigned with the Yankees immediately), Peavy (signed extension) and lohse

 

sifting through the cheap options - I don't think Ryan gets any credit for picking Correia.

Many hated this signing and still don't like Correia. Pelfrey was a bust but perhaps we would feel differently if he had been in the minors rehabbing for two months and he didn't get called up until he had 12 months post TJ. So Ryan hit on one and missed on one. that seems pretty consistent with this tier of starters. The only thing one can justify criticism is that he didn't sign 3-5 of the guys in this group. I don't think that would have went over well on this board though.

 

I hope this isn't considered as defending Ryan. His offseason was hardly inspiring as the 2013 season. It's pretty obvious that despite his Sept comments he was focused on future years. I think most were suspicious of these comments immediately.

 

The guy missed in this whole hindsight analysis is Ryu. I liked tossing some money at him similar to the Cuban that is available right now. he at least came with upside and youth. He signed a 6/36 contract with a 25.7M posting fee. Not cheap but he was potentially a long term option for the team vs guys that were stopgaps (aside from Sanchez and Greinke).

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I hope this isn't considered as defending Ryan. His offseason was hardly inspiring as the 2013 season. It's pretty obvious that despite his Sept comments he was focused on future years. I think most were suspicious of these comments immediately.
This. No one's apologizing for a mediocre effort, but let's put it into perspective.
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I'm not sure you really know how hindsight works. Saying the Twins should have signed these guys that worked out is hindsight. Saying that you knew that two guys that should have been counted on would be dreadfully awful is hindsight. Saying that the top prospect would be dreadfully awful instead of stabilizing a rotation spot is hindsight. Saying that someone could have targeted guys (done in this thread) like Colon, Feldman, Villanueva or Liriano is hindsight. Liriano had his supporters but I think it was pretty clear that these two were going other directions.

 

The Twins choices in FA:

Go big - Would have worked out well but nobody should have had expectations that the Twins were going this direction. I actually supported going after Greinke since he is actually legitimately good compared to the 40-80M options. Sanchez is not the same pitcher that he was in Miami.

 

The 40-80M options - only Jackson here and I thought he was a terrible option

 

Go after guys that weren't coming here - Kuroda (resigned with the Yankees immediately), Peavy (signed extension) and lohse

 

sifting through the cheap options - I don't think Ryan gets any credit for picking Correia.

Many hated this signing and still don't like Correia. Pelfrey was a bust but perhaps we would feel differently if he had been in the minors rehabbing for two months and he didn't get called up until he had 12 months post TJ. So Ryan hit on one and missed on one. that seems pretty consistent with this tier of starters. The only thing one can justify criticism is that he didn't sign 3-5 of the guys in this group. I don't think that would have went over well on this board though.

 

I hope this isn't considered as defending Ryan. His offseason was hardly inspiring as the 2013 season. It's pretty obvious that despite his Sept comments he was focused on future years. I think most were suspicious of these comments immediately.

 

The guy missed in this whole hindsight analysis is Ryu. I liked tossing some money at him similar to the Cuban that is available right now. he at least came with upside and youth. He signed a 6/36 contract with a 25.7M posting fee. Not cheap but he was potentially a long term option for the team vs guys that were stopgaps (aside from Sanchez and Greinke).

 

Ryu was seen as more as a reliever by some. Although 19 games is only a start of a career, not enough to judge with his stuff to see if it will work. Others can feel free to tell me how little I know of Ryu. Considering various points made on this thread I would conclude something Oxtung might even agree with me on. For various debateable reasons, if the Twins do not want to gamble on a mid level free agent elevating their game, or a high level free agent maintaining, you might aas well invest in the younger professional international players. In terms of posting fees, the team with the most money wins. With the Cubans, try to collect them.

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I hope this isn't considered as defending Ryan. His offseason was hardly inspiring as the 2013 season. It's pretty obvious that despite his Sept comments he was focused on future years. I think most were suspicious of these comments immediately.

 

That's fine, but that's just another way of saying he failed, but he failed because he wasn't trying. Which is fine, I'm sure many could find wisdom in punting another season, but I'm not so sure that fits with Ryan and what we know of him. This isn't a man that strikes me as a punter.

 

We don't have to agree, but I think he meant those comments and believed them. Which is part of what is troubling. In any case, whether you believe he meant them or not, it doesn't change the fact this season was a failure of improvement. I don't think most comments here defending Ryan mesh with your version of what happened since you seem to believe he could have improved them and chose not to. Most defenders here are more or less arguing Ryan isn't accountable because his job was somehow impossible.

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I'm not sure you really know how hindsight works. Saying the Twins should have signed these guys that worked out is hindsight. Saying that you knew that two guys that should have been counted on would be dreadfully awful is hindsight. Saying that the top prospect would be dreadfully awful instead of stabilizing a rotation spot is hindsight. Saying that someone could have targeted guys (done in this thread) like Colon, Feldman, Villanueva or Liriano is hindsight. Liriano had his supporters but I think it was pretty clear that these two were going other directions.

 

Thanks for the condescension, but I was debating the following point from you, implying some of us were making disingenuous arguments.

 

It would be interested to go back and see who thought the Twins had an improved rotation and see if they are are also leading the 'Ryan screwed up' charge. I wouldn't consider myself a Ryan supporter but playing hindsight is pretty questionable.

 

You argued that people (with my perspective) had somehow changed our opinions and we were all wild about Ryan's offseason. My point was that in fact, many of us that are arguing TR did a poor job in pursuing FA had that perspective in the first place and are now using evidence to support that. I think the specific examples are an extension of that.

 

As for looking at the rotation in hindsight, you're right to some extent that those specific things you mention couldn't have been predicted. However, those of us that were critical of the offseason (and much of the national media, too) were correct on the whole about the rotation, that the Twins rotation would be one of the worst in baseball.

 

The argument has been brought up here (and in your post) that Ryan shouldn't have gone any harder because there weren't FA pitchers that could improve the Twins rotation. So, the argument has been made that TRs lack of aggressiveness was the correct strategy.

 

That last part of the argument is based on absolute hindsight (and in my opinion, false). There were a lot more pitchers than the just the three you mention that would have improved the Twins rotation. You're right that the Twins may not have been lucky enough, or done a good enough job evaluating things in the first place, to land one of them, but it's clear that the original strategy failed.

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Ryu was seen as more as a reliever by some. Although 19 games is only a start of a career, not enough to judge with his stuff to see if it will work. Others can feel free to tell me how little I know of Ryu. Considering various points made on this thread I would conclude something Oxtung might even agree with me on. For various debateable reasons, if the Twins do not want to gamble on a mid level free agent elevating their game, or a high level free agent maintaining, you might aas well invest in the younger professional international players. In terms of posting fees, the team with the most money wins. With the Cubans, try to collect them.

 

 

Here is to the Twins bringing in a big haul in the international FA market! *Raises his Nalgene and takes a swig*

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This. No one's apologizing for a mediocre effort, but let's put it into perspective.

 

Isn't this what the "detractors" have been saying since the off season? Ryan basically decided to punt on 2013 instead of taking a chance to improve this squad via free agency. It's the fact that an effort wasn't made that is the biggest problem I think.

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This. No one's apologizing for a mediocre effort, but let's put it into perspective.

 

I think this is exactly what's going on.

 

Some of us would have liked to have seen more in the offseason, even if it failed, because there was clearly more out there that could have helped the Twins. While others think that there's really nothing more he could have done.

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I think this is exactly what's going on.

 

Some of us would have liked to have seen more in the offseason, even if it failed, because there was clearly more out there that could have helped the Twins. While others think that there's really nothing more he could have done.

I think you're offbase, my friend. It didn't take any special wisdom to see the rotation would be mediocre at best (and really, again the failures of Worley and Diamond come heavily into play when turning mediocre to horrible). And no there was not clearly more out there, beyond Grienke (and Sanchez, lesser so), the Twin were only enabled to throw wet paper against a wall and seeing what sticks (those who say differently are picking and choosing between hindsight and exclusive reliance on statistical analysis). We all agree they should have gotten more wetballs, but they did acquire four potential starters (KC, Worley, Pelfry, Harden) and expected the emergence of at least one from the minor leagues (Gibson). The narrative that the Twins didn't at least try to address pitching depth is totally bunk.

 

It's silly to argue about wet balls of paper, and I'm fine with disagreeing with people about our capacity to sign Grienke. There's no apologies here, but I am getting impatient with harshness and haughtiness of the criticism.

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Isn't this what the "detractors" have been saying since the off season? Ryan basically decided to punt on 2013 instead of taking a chance to improve this squad via free agency. It's the fact that an effort wasn't made that is the biggest problem I think.
Again, beyond Grienke (who I seriously doubt would sign here) no 'chances' would have improved the club to competition (any thing less isn't worth the money, imho). Such was our lot, last offseason.
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The narrative that the Twins didn't at least try to address pitching depth is totally bunk.

 

It's silly to argue about wet balls of paper, and I'm fine with disagreeing with people about our capacity to sign Grienke. There's no apologies here, but I am getting impatient with harshness and haughtiness of the criticism.

 

I think the last comment is true of both sides and that at this point, we're not changing each others' opinions.

 

I wouldn't say the Twins didn't try and address their pitching depth at all, I'd just argue that it wasn't done in any meaningful way, and I'll leave it at that.

 

The upside is that we still have half a season to see what that brings and we could end up being wrong if KC turns his recent troubles around and Pelfrey really has found his stride.

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I can relate with your last paragraph but impatient is not the word I would chose. While I appreciate your efforts here, you should put the criticism in perspective. The same group that basically said Ryan was an idiot if he could not see Marcum, McCarthy, Blanton, Baker, etc were superior choices (like they could) are still complaining and expousing their superior wisdom today.

 

They also seem to know exactly what went on even though they have absolutely no direct knowledge whatsover. Apparently, he should have had a crystal ball too so he could have seen that Colon and a couple other long shots were going to have a big year. That same crystal ball could have predicted Worley and Diamond tanking.

 

The Grienke argument is ridiculous. We can't outbid the biggest teams. More to the point, even if we could have signed him, it would have been a terrible idea to take on that contract at this particular time. We would have $50M invested in two aging players at the exact time the payroll flexibiity could make us contenders. There is not a GM in baseball that would have signed Grienke but Ryan is not doing his job because he did what any other GM would have done in this situation.

 

Worley, Diamond Correia should have been a good core. We don't know what they were thinking for sure but it seem reasonable they wanted one spot available for Gibson. So, if they were thinking that between Pelfrey, Deduno, Hendricks and others they had a significantly better starting rotation, that seems reasonable to me.

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That's fine, but that's just another way of saying he failed, but he failed because he wasn't trying. Which is fine, I'm sure many could find wisdom in punting another season, but I'm not so sure that fits with Ryan and what we know of him. This isn't a man that strikes me as a punter.

 

We don't have to agree, but I think he meant those comments and believed them. Which is part of what is troubling. In any case, whether you believe he meant them or not, it doesn't change the fact this season was a failure of improvement. I don't think most comments here defending Ryan mesh with your version of what happened since you seem to believe he could have improved them and chose not to. Most defenders here are more or less arguing Ryan isn't accountable because his job was somehow impossible.

 

A question : what would be "success" in your mind? A lot if season left - there is a chance they improve by 7-9 wins over last season.

 

Also, Ryan on the radio last Saturday called this a "transitional" season. Do you think he is backtracking from failure or speaking clearly what he has thought and known all along? I can probably guess where you fall.

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I can relate with your last paragraph but impatient is not the word I would chose. While I appreciate your efforts here, you should put the criticism in perspective. The same group that basically said Ryan was an idiot if he could not see Marcum, McCarthy, Blanton, Baker, etc were superior choices (like they could) are still complaining and expousing their superior wisdom today.

 

 

It's disappointing some of us are getting to the point of being rude about this discussion. Maybe rather than get to that point, step away.

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After yesterday's performance, I think Pelfrey can be considered a success for Ryan. Perhaps Ryan will spend some of the $20 million, that he supposedly had available, to sign Pelfrey to a long-term contract. Besides pitching well in the last half of the season, he also is reported to be a good guy in the clubhouse.

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A question : what would be "success" in your mind? A lot if season left - there is a chance they improve by 7-9 wins over last season.

 

Also, Ryan on the radio last Saturday called this a "transitional" season. Do you think he is backtracking from failure or speaking clearly what he has thought and known all along? I can probably guess where you fall.

 

Success to me would have been improving the rotation with at least two guy emerging as options for the long term. Or to have successfully added prospects via our offseason veteran pickups. We can wait and see on that one.

 

i would characterize that remark as a realization. I think he knew there would be a challenge this year, but I also believe he thought he had significantly improved the club. Many of us were questioning that immediately, so there is no hindsight at work there.

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It's disappointing some of us are getting to the point of being rude about this discussion. Maybe rather than get to that point, step away.

 

And it's not in bad form to continue to blast the FO after all the moves people here insisted were obviously better and Ryan must be incompetent. If Ryan would have signed Colon this board would have erupted with criticsm but now he is a fool for not having signed guys that were longshots. There is a basic presumption here on the part of many here that they are qualified to judged TR and the rest of the coaching staff without even being present. One, I serious doubt anyone here has the credentials to presume they are better equipped to make these decisions than the people making them. Two, even if they were qualified, to presume to be sable to do so without directly being directly involved is beyond rude.

 

There is a ridiculous unwillingness to except this is a business and that there are 29 other teams competing for free agents. Half of them have more revenue than the Twins. A few of them have far more revenue than the Twins. There is also a lot of generalizations about how the FO did not try. If you want to have a reasonable discussion, let's talk specifically about what could have been done. When you talk specifics, Ryan would have needed a crystal ball. Was it really unreasonable to expect Diamond and Worley to be solid SPs? Was it reasonable to believe Willingham and Morneau would stink? Had these guys just performed to a reasonable expectation, this would be a much beter team than last year. Where is all of the hate fo rthe guys that are not performing. How is this all on the FO? Just because TR is not here to defend himself does not make all the childish ranting less rude.

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Money saved this year does not get applied in future years. It either gets spent elsewhere within the organization or is profit for the Pohlads.

 

Yes - I know this which is why I put banking in quotes. I'm saying that I'm okay with the Pohlads not spending hard in FA this year as long as they continue adding to a young core: Meyer, May and Worley were added to Hicks, Arcia, Sano, Gibson, Rosario etc. When that group is ready (most likely next year), that's the time to spend by locking up players and filling in missing pieces.

 

In reading through this thread, it seems like many are saying the team is not better and point to their record and the product on the field. That's one way to look at it. But I look at it as an Organization not just the 25 man. I think the Organization is much better this year than last year or two years ago. They have some very good young talent that's knocking on the door. Now they just need to perform when they get their opportunity.

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Success to me would have been improving the rotation with at least two guy emerging as options for the long term. Or to have successfully added prospects via our offseason veteran pickups. We can wait and see on that one.

 

i would characterize that remark as a realization. I think he knew there would be a challenge this year, but I also believe he thought he had significantly improved the club. Many of us were questioning that immediately, so there is no hindsight at work there.

 

To be honest, I don't know how anyone can pick and choose what to believe and what not to believe when it comes to things Ryan says.

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Ryan re-signed Deduno and Walters to minor league contracts. They could have gone elsewhere.

 

According to Minnesota Twins Roster & Payroll 2013 by Jeremy Nygaard, Vance Worley

*(Vance Worley (3/31 - 5/22) spent 53 days in the Majors.

$525,000 x 53/183 = $152,049)

$152,049 is hardly worth complaining about.

 

*Mike Pelfrey can earn an additional $1.5 million in incentives in 2013. ($100K @150IP; $150K @160IP; $250K @170,180,190IP; $500K @200IP). At Pelfrey's current level of success, he is likely to receive all or most of these incentive payments.

 

* http://twinsdaily.com/1272-minnesota-twins-roster-payroll-2013.html

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Ryan re-signed Deduno and Walters to minor league contracts. They could have gone elsewhere.

 

According to Minnesota Twins Roster & Payroll 2013 by Jeremy Nygaard, Vance Worley

*(Vance Worley (3/31 - 5/22) spent 53 days in the Majors.

$525,000 x 53/183 = $152,049)

$152,049 is hardly worth complaining about.

 

*Mike Pelfrey can earn an additional $1.5 million in incentives in 2013. ($100K @150IP; $150K @160IP; $250K @170,180,190IP; $500K @200IP). At Pelfrey's current level of success, he is likely to receive all or most of these incentive payments.

 

* http://twinsdaily.com/1272-minnesota-twins-roster-payroll-2013.html

 

Hardly worth complaining about indeed, unless you care more about the nature of the rotation than whether or not he was worth what he's getting paid. This guy was our opening day starter, one of the three people brought in to be in our rotation this year...and he's in the minors. Whether a guy is worth what he's getting or not is important to the bean counters, as a fan I care more about the overall product on the field.

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And it's not in bad form to continue to blast the FO after all the moves people here insisted were obviously better and Ryan must be incompetent. If Ryan would have signed Colon this board would have erupted with criticsm but now he is a fool for not having signed guys that were longshots. There is a basic presumption here on the part of many here that they are qualified to judged TR and the rest of the coaching staff without even being present. One, I serious doubt anyone here has the credentials to presume they are better equipped to make these decisions than the people making them. Two, even if they were qualified, to presume to be sable to do so without directly being directly involved is beyond rude.

 

There is a ridiculous unwillingness to except this is a business and that there are 29 other teams competing for free agents. Half of them have more revenue than the Twins. A few of them have far more revenue than the Twins. There is also a lot of generalizations about how the FO did not try. If you want to have a reasonable discussion, let's talk specifically about what could have been done. When you talk specifics, Ryan would have needed a crystal ball. Was it really unreasonable to expect Diamond and Worley to be solid SPs? Was it reasonable to believe Willingham and Morneau would stink? Had these guys just performed to a reasonable expectation, this would be a much beter team than last year. Where is all of the hate fo rthe guys that are not performing. How is this all on the FO? Just because TR is not here to defend himself does not make all the childish ranting less rude.

 

I really want to dive in and pick this apart but I will refrain. Instead I will just say given the tone of your writing, the fact that you're on a message board and more specifically a thread whose sole purpose is to discuss the decisions made by the Twins, I find it odd that you then complain about discussing the decisions being made by the Twins. I think I'll end this by just parroting back your final sentiments and hope that you'll think on them. Childish ranting is rude.

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I think you're offbase, my friend. It didn't take any special wisdom to see the rotation would be mediocre at best (and really, again the failures of Worley and Diamond come heavily into play when turning mediocre to horrible). And no there was not clearly more out there, beyond Grienke (and Sanchez, lesser so), the Twin were only enabled to throw wet paper against a wall and seeing what sticks (those who say differently are picking and choosing between hindsight and exclusive reliance on statistical analysis). We all agree they should have gotten more wetballs, but they did acquire four potential starters (KC, Worley, Pelfry, Harden) and expected the emergence of at least one from the minor leagues (Gibson). The narrative that the Twins didn't at least try to address pitching depth is totally bunk.

 

It's silly to argue about wet balls of paper, and I'm fine with disagreeing with people about our capacity to sign Grienke. There's no apologies here, but I am getting impatient with harshness and haughtiness of the criticism.

 

The club's actions regarding Gibson's "need for consistency" and the final timing of his promotion make it clear that they all along had no intention of promoting him until after he was safely past all potential arbitration strictures. This happened in the face of having the worst AL SP on a month-by-month basis- and the situation screamed to get a live and more viable arm into the situation sooner, not later.

 

And despite your argument about "pitchers as spitballs"- that seems to me rather haughty, in and of itself-- I do take issue with you on FA pitching options, there were, in fact "clearly" more options out there- and there "clearly" was more money to spend in acquiring those options. Look at the Cubs and the strategy they employed as just one example. Relying on not one (Diamond), not two (Worley), not three (Pelfrey), not four (Perez), but five (Harden) potential starting pitchers on the depth chart with serious injury questions surrounding their potential effectiveness going into the season does leave the FO open to criticism concerning the questioning about how hard they really "tried" to effectuate their plan, your impatience nothwithstanding.

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A question : what would be "success" in your mind? A lot if season left - there is a chance they improve by 7-9 wins over last season.

 

Also, Ryan on the radio last Saturday called this a "transitional" season. Do you think he is backtracking from failure or speaking clearly what he has thought and known all along? I can probably guess where you fall.

 

To me success this season came down to three things. First, are the Twins competitive, which has been a resounding no, though that was not unexpected. Second, were there any pieces added to the roster that would be long term building blocks helping the Twins be competitive in future seasons. This too clearly is a no. Finally were any prospects added, that can help the Twins be competitive in future seasons, by trading a veteran(s) added in free agency. There is still a chance that Correia or Pelfrey are traded for something significant but, as the 8-ball says, all signs point to no.

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