Article: Grading Last Year's Free Agent Pitching Market

[TheLeviathan]

In all honesty, I wasn't being snotty. I found your post interesting and though I may not agree with all of it, I also strongly believe that TR is in the 3rd camp. I'm not sure I want him to throw big dollars away in a deliberate fashion to convince me he's not but I sure would like more reassurance than we've gotten so far.

 

I was totally taking it tongue in cheek myself, I tried to edit it but apparently I was in a zone of satellite signal that would be ideal for amish people. (I really wanted that fourth one in there because I think it acknowledges people that disagree with me too, felt bad that I was misrepresenting what I thought was a fair argument)

 

But rest assured sir, I edited it in and there is actually a fourth point. Now I don't look nearly so incapable of counting.

[Otto von Ballpark]

People like to rail against how bad starting pitching is, but when asked for what specifically they would have done, the same people go quite.

 

Specifics:

 

Kuroda, Saunders, Dempster, and Colon were all established, consistent pitchers, and all signed short-term, reasonable priced deals this past offseason -- any of them could have been signed in addition to TR's signings, or perhaps in place of Pelfrey (let someone else sign Pelfrey for his rehab season). This is not hindsight either: I was rooting for a cheap Saunders even after Correia/Pelfrey, and I would have pursued any of these pitchers given any kind of reasonable budget.

 

Villanueva, Feldman, and Bedard likewise signed cheaply, and would have provided much-needed depth for a rotation with a lot of question marks. Ervin Santana was also available on a reasonable one-year commitment in trade for a minor league reliever.

 

BONUS: skip Harden and offer a guaranteed rotation spot to Kazmir (not that I would have had much confidence in the Twins getting him straightened out).

 

There are a variety of options, any combination of which would have reduced the likelihood of us witnessing another AAAA pitcher merry-go-round for the second consecutive season.

 

Now, you can proceed to tell me how TR's $10 million budget for filling 3+ rotation spots was inviolable.

[TheLeviathan]

Your second point is certainly valid I also thought the moves made would result in an upgrade. It still very easily could. Season isn't over yet.

 

Hard to imagine it will. It may, but one thing I wanted to point out here is that one of Ryan's moves that has unquestionably failed is Worley. But I will point out that most people negative about Ryan's moves are never blaming him for that. It was a smart move that just didn't pan out.

 

The moves that didn't, that weren't all that smart from the outset, are the problem. We need to see him expanding his willingness to upgrade the team, I think we should all agree to that.

[PseudoSABR]

I'd argue you're setting a pretty low level of "possible". One much, much lower than Ryan himself seemed to set.

Well let's define what was really possible with specifics. Signing Saunders, imho, was the only additional move that seemed plausible to me.

 

It seems intentionally obtuse to say the Twins could have signed Grienke or Sanchez--there's no indication that either player would want to come here, and if they did we'd probably have to significantly overpay.

 

Let's face it, it's pretty rare for last place teams to sign marquee FAs, and when such teams do they over pay and have varying results. It'd actually be an interesting exercise to see a list of such players.

[TheLeviathan]

Well let's define what was really possible with specifics. Signing Saunders, imho, was the only additional move that seemed plausible to me.

 

It would seem, by your definition, Ryan never had a chance to fail or succeed. Which is a pretty dismal outlook on our GM if you ask me. I'm not sure how such a self-defeating attitude does any good whatsoever.

[drjim]

I just don't buy that Ryan gave it 100% in either of the past offseasons. Where was he on Darvish or Iwakuma in 2011?

 

Why didn't he get Saunders late last offseason? That was a debacle. Its like someone broke down the door on the eve of spring training and alerted him that they weren't ready to field a MLB rotation, and Ryan's response was "who's left, Saunders? Offer him a 1 year deal and no more."

 

edit:

Source: Twins want Joe Saunders on 1-year deal, waiting to hear back | 1500 ESPN Twin Cities ? Minnesota Sports News & Opinion (Twins, Vikings, Wolves, Wild, Gophers) | Sportswire: Minnesota Twins

 

How is the Saunders situation a debacle? They bid on him and he signed elsewhere for whatever reason. This isn't a fantasy auction.

 

And they did bid on Iwakura but were beat by the A's who didn't sign him. He got hurt and sognes with the Ms. He re-signed without really hitting the market.

[PseudoSABR]

Also, if we're going to criticize TR for not signing Grienke or Sanchez, we can probably give him credit for not signing Marcum, Blanton, McCarthy, Jackson, Haren--all names that many here (including me) championed in the offseason.

[Willihammer]

How is the Saunders situation a debacle? They bid on him and he signed elsewhere for whatever reason. This isn't a fantasy auction.

 

And they did bid on Iwakura but were beat by the A's who didn't sign him. He got hurt and sognes with the Ms. He re-signed without really hitting the market.

 

Doesn't the fact that Ryan was in on the 2nd to last FA SP available speak to a bit of unpreparedness? The fact that he didn't get him could be due to anything. Maybe the Pohlads didn't give him approval to toss a 2nd year at Saunders. We do know he could have blown Saunders away with a 1 yr/10m deal though, if he'd wanted to.

[Oxtung]

2. That is a fantasy. [Top tier pitchers] weren't coming to this franchise. I think Correia is a top 5 guy from the pool.

 

When are people going to stop this line of thought? Let me post a direct quote from Mr. Zachary Greinke.

 

“[Money is] obviously the No. 1 thing,'' Greinke said. “I could play for the worst team if they paid the most

 

People like to rail against how bad starting pitching is, but when asked for what specifically they would have done, the same people go quite.

 

Free Agency isn't a Chinese buffet. You can't just pick what you like and say, "Well my rotation is all set!" People could list off players they prefer but those players have a right to chose whether to accept or not. Then there are injury concerns we, as fans, have no idea about. To pick 3 guys out and say "this is who I would add" is absurd. On the other hand there were 15 pitchers this last offseason that were average or better between 2010-2012. That isn't a guarantee that 2013 would be a good year from them but it does mean they had potential to be a good signing. Potential to help the rotation improve or, failing that, potential to be traded at the deadline for prospects. Instead we went with 2 guys with next to no potential. Even pitching about as well as he can Correia isn't assumed to be worth much. What is the point of signing that kind of pitcher?

 

I guess I'd just like to take a moment to point out that this seasons actual results have no bearing on whether Ryan made good decisions in the offseason unless you believe he should be able to predict the future.

[ThePuck]

Doesn't the fact that Ryan was in on the 2nd to last FA SP available speak to a bit of unpreparedness? The fact that he didn't get him could be due to anything. Maybe the Pohlads didn't give him approval to toss a 2nd year at Saunders. We do know he could have blown Saunders away with a 1 yr/10m deal though, if he'd wanted to.

 

Obviously, Saunders preferred to go to a team that's been going to the playoffs a lot more lately than we have. Better chance to win over there...

[drjim]

When are people going to stop this line of thought? Let me post a direct quote from Mr. Zachary Greinke.

 

OK, 8/200. Technically not a fantasy.

[drjim]

Obviously, Saunders preferred to go to a team that's been going to the playoffs a lot more lately than we have. Better chance to win over there...

 

Actually it was family reasons and a desire to be on the West coast.

[ThePuck]

Actually it was family reasons and a desire to be on the West coast.

 

Well, I was just just joking, but want to elaborate? The guy is from Virginia, went to VTU did he not? Didn't his wife also go to VTU? What family reasons were there?

[big dog]

OK, 8/200. Technically not a fantasy.

 

Wait, we had $20 million left this year! We could have...oh wait, that's $200 million. Never mind.

[drjim]

Well, I was just just joking, but want to elaborate? The guy is from Virginia, went to VTU did he not? Didn't his wife also go to VTU? What family reasons were there?

 

From what I read his wife was from Vancouver area. I could have bad info but that would make Seattle more attractive if similar offers.

[ThePuck]

From what I read his wife was from Vancouver area. I could have bad info but that would make Seattle more attractive if similar offers.

 

here's an article with him saying he's love to go to Baltimore.

 

Much has been made about Saunders’ Northern Virginia roots and the pleasure he derived last season pitching at Camden Yards in front of friends and family.

 

“First and foremost, I’d like to come back to Baltimore and do some great things in 2013. But, from my standpoint, my hands are kind of tied. I pay my agent to do his job and hopefully it all works out.”

 

 

“Obviously, I’d like to go to a contender,” said Saunders, who allowed just two runs in two postseason starts for the Orioles in 2012. “That’s what I want to do. That would be the most important thing, to compete for a division title and get another playoff burst like we did in 2012.”

 

 

 

 

Joe Saunders says he'd 'love to come back to Baltimore' - Baltimore Sun

[PseudoSABR]

Now, you can proceed to tell me how TR's $10 million budget for filling 3+ rotation spots was inviolable.

So snarky. Well let's look at your specifics here.

 

On Saunders: I've mentioned him, specifically as well. We can agree that the Twins were in on him and lost out, we don't know if they were given the opportunity to outbid the Mariners, perhaps they should have offered him more money in the first place. TR didn't get the job done here. But bleh it's still just Saunders.

 

On Kuroda, Dempster: Both are over 35 and signed with contenders/big markets. I don't think there's enough Pohlad money to get them to play for the last place Minnesota Twins.

 

On Colon: He's forty years old, likely a cheater, and resigned with the playoff As. Again, I don't think he'd sign with a last place team, when his current, contending team brought him back.

 

On Villanueva, Feldman, and Bedard: now we're using hindsight, here, and I think this speaks to how much FA can be a crapshoot--we might as well add in the names of players who have had similar careers and are not working out (Blanton, McCarthy, Marcum, Haren). The parenthetical four were far more championed around here, than these three.

 

On Santana: Hindsight again. He was awful last year and expensive, that he came so cheap speaks to how highly he was thought of.

 

Sure you're recommendations are possible--in that they could have happened, but I don't think they were plausible. I think you're expecting clairvoyance on the GMs part (to know that Villanueva/Feldman/Bedard/Correia would work out and Blanton/McCarthy/Marcum/Haren would not--the later four have a much better track record after all.) Really, you're just casting wide net and hitting on every single pitcher. This is another version of: well TR should have signed all the cheap pitchers that are doing well, and doesn't really address how such pitchers are identified much less acquired.

 

To diverge a bit from the conversation, but I think a relevant point: The real problem with the rotation is Worley and Diamond (and maybe we can include Gibson here, but I'm not quite ready too), the extent their failures weren't foreseen by anyone here (though we all expected Diamond to regress, but not this much). Those were two (maybe three) spots that were supposed to be hammered down.

[Mike Sixel]

The question that is rarely answered.....how many 90+ loss seasons before Ryan is held accountable? How many years can they be AWFUL, before someone decides maybe it is time to make a change? How many years can Ryan's process fail before we doubt him? I mean, the pitching is the worst in baseball again, that's on him. What if it is this bad again next year?*

 

*btw, I don't think it will be....but I thought it couldn't be this bad again this year either....

[PseudoSABR]

It would seem, by your definition, Ryan never had a chance to fail or succeed. Which is a pretty dismal outlook on our GM if you ask me. I'm not sure how such a self-defeating attitude does any good whatsoever.

I think that's pretty fair, and it's why I'm not so worked up about this issue. While they could have done better than Pelfry and Harden and while it stinks to suck now--I think there's a better time to invest a lot of money in pitching, when we're actually about to compete--which could be next year if the Twins are aggressive with their prospects.

[TheLeviathan]

I think that's pretty fair, and it's why I'm not so worked up about this issue. While they could have done better than Pelfry and Harden and while it stinks to suck now--I think there's a better time to invest a lot of money in pitching, when we're actually about to compete--which could be next year if the Twins are aggressive with their prospects.

 

Why won't we be self-defeating and doomed to failure before we try at some future point? The conditions won't be any different. Hell, they might be even more difficult for this team.

[drjim]

here's an article with him saying he's love to go to Baltimore.

 

Much has been made about Saunders’ Northern Virginia roots and the pleasure he derived last season pitching at Camden Yards in front of friends and family.

 

“First and foremost, I’d like to come back to Baltimore and do some great things in 2013. But, from my standpoint, my hands are kind of tied. I pay my agent to do his job and hopefully it all works out.”

 

 

“Obviously, I’d like to go to a contender,” said Saunders, who allowed just two runs in two postseason starts for the Orioles in 2012. “That’s what I want to do. That would be the most important thing, to compete for a division title and get another playoff burst like we did in 2012.”

 

 

 

 

 

Joe Saunders says he'd 'love to come back to Baltimore' - Baltimore Sun

 

I wonder if that is why he waited so long to sign, hoping Baltimore would jump in. Theu clearly had/have a need at SP.

[Oxtung]

OK, 8/200. Technically not a fantasy.

 

I give you a direct quote where he says he would go to the highest bidder regardless of the team's competitiveness and you still can't accept it. Classic.

[drjim]

The question that is rarely answered.....how many 90+ loss seasons before Ryan is held accountable? How many years can they be AWFUL, before someone decides maybe it is time to make a change? How many years can Ryan's process fail before we doubt him? I mean, the pitching is the worst in baseball again, that's on him. What if it is this bad again next year?*

 

*btw, I don't think it will be....but I thought it couldn't be this bad again this year either....

 

Considering the state of the team/granchise when he took over and that the four starters under contract imploded the next year with no minor league reinforcements...I would personally give him more than two. I'm generous like that.

[drjim]

I would add that it won't go more than three. If the team has the same type of year next year Ryan will almost certainly leave voluntarily.

[Oxtung]

I would add that it won't go more than three. If the team has the same type of year next year Ryan will almost certainly leave voluntarily.

 

I sure hope we have a list of replacement GM's ready to go then! I also really hope he doesn't trade prospects for pitchers a la the Royals since we're even farther away then they were this year.

[drjim]

I sure hope we have a list of replacement GM's ready to go then! I also really hope he doesn't trade prospects for pitchers a la the Royals since we're even farther away then they were this year.

 

I don't see Ryan sabotaging the future of the franchise for a few wins in the present. I don't think he has to worry about being fired before he would voluntarily leave on his own.

 

And I am pretty sure the Twins will lose less than 90 next year.

[Oxtung]

I don't see Ryan sabotaging the future of the franchise for a few wins in the present. I don't think he has to worry about being fired before he would voluntarily leave on his own.

 

And I am pretty sure the Twins will lose less than 90 next year.

 

I agree with all of that except the 90 loss part.

[jokin]

I don't see Ryan sabotaging the future of the franchise for a few wins in the present. I don't think he has to worry about being fired before he would voluntarily leave on his own.

 

And I am pretty sure the Twins will lose less than 90 next year.

 

Gutsy call. Predictions are duly noted and time-stamped on TD.

[drjim]

Gutsy call. Predictions are duly noted and time-stamped on TD.

 

Considering I think they'll be fringe contenders next year avoiding 90 losses should be part of that.

[Guest USAFChief]

Considering I think they'll be fringe contenders next year avoiding 90 losses should be part of that.

What do you see the pitching staff looking like in 2014?